High Impact Events Trading... Bitcoin

Here's tedtalksmacro's take:

US Employment Data - January Preview

1. US Non-Farm Employment Change
2. US Unemployment Rate
3. US Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Forecasts

The unemployment rate is widely expected to remain at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings is expected to tick down to 0.4% from 0.6%. The consensus estimate for NFP is an increase of about 200K. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were mostly between 175K and 245K. The average is 208K and median 200K. Those surveyed by Reuters were mostly in the same range of estimates.

Other employment data is showing no signs of a slowing labor market despite a looming recession and the Fed’s seven-straight jumbo rate hikes. Below we’ll look at Unemployment Claims, JOLTs, and ADP.

Unemployment Claims - Unemployment claims still relatively low. Latest figure of 204K is below the pre-pandemic average (218K). Continuing claims, which measure ongoing unemployment benefits (or those who remain unemployed), remain slightly elevated but nothing that could signal labor market weakness.

JOLTs - Reflecting demand for employment remains high. Companies are still looking for workers to fill positions. Although there’s been an uptick in layoffs and a slight decrease in hiring there’s little indication that the labor market is softening. It should also be noted that this week’s data was as of November.

ADP - Today’s data came in higher than expected (235K vs 150K exp) and continues to show a strong labor market. While ADP employment data is a good measure of job market health it shouldn’t be used as a precursor for NFP. The correlation isn’t high.

Feb FOMC rate hike probabilities

Rate rate probabilities for the next FOMC meeting are almost split between a 25bps and a 50bps. Although the markets are still largely focused on inflation, there’s room to move in either direction on the data tomorrow.

Last month's impact

During last month’s data NFP came in higher than expected (263K vs 200K exp), unemployment rate was unchanged (3.7%), and average hourly earnings ticked up (0.6% vs 0.3% exp). The US dollar rallied across asset classes.

Dec 2nd

What to expect

Stronger than expected data could trigger markets to start pricing in a greater chance of a more aggressive Fed. This would bring selling pressure to Bitcoin as the US dollar moves higher. Although a more aggressive Feb FOMC may require hot US PPI and CPI figures released later this month.

Weaker than expected data would add to the sentiment that the Fed will only hike by 25 bps. This would be positive for Bitcoin and bearish for the US dollar.

Remember, this is a simultaneous release and susceptible to whipsaws if the unemployment rate and NFP paint a different picture.

Avg Hourly Earnings (Wage inflation) will be released at the same time and is expected to tick down to 0.4%. The Fed is keeping an eye on wage inflation and any significant deviation from forecasts would put this data in focus.

NFP always has the potential to trigger big moves across all dollar-denominated assets. It's best to sit tight and wait for a trend emerge. If the labor data triggers a big move there will be plenty of opportunity. There's slightly more risk in a weaker report as the market would continue to price in a less aggressive Fed. As always, caution is advised. Good luck traders!

US Employment Data - January Follow up

Although NFP and the unemployment rate beat expectations, it was wage inflation that took center stage. Here's how the market reacted:

What was behind the move?

NFP came in at 223K vs 200K expected and unemployment rate was at 3.5% vs 3.7% expected. Normally we'd have expected the US dollar to rally on the data but it was average hourly earnings the market was focused on. Not only did today's print come in lower than expected (0.3% vs 0.4% expected), but the Previous was revised down to 0.4% from 0.6%. On an annual basis, wage growth has slowed to 4.6%. The market was expecting 5.0%. The lower wage inflation data is music to the Fed's ears and it now more justifiably allows them to further consider the 25 bps rate hike (over 50 bps).

Rate probabilities for February shifted considerably. The market is now pricing in a 75% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the Feb FOMC meeting. Prior to the release it was around 50%.

To add fuel to the USD dump, 90 minutes after the US employment data, ISM Services PMI missed big at 49.6 vs 55.0 expected. That's the lowest reading since June 2020. Not many could've predicted the USD would sell off on a positive NFP reading, but it shows just how much inflation is in focus right now. Until next time, good luck out there fellow traders!

Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Ahead of CPI on Friday, it's unlikely that he'll make any definitive statements on whether the Fed will hike by 25 or 50 bps. Regardless, it wouldn't be surprising to see the markets move. He'll likely stick with the script of remaining data dependent. I'd keep an eye out for how much he emphasizes 'policy lags' because that's perceived as dovish. As far as potential hawkish statements go, it could be related to peak rates. At an extreme he could reiterate some Fedspeak we heard yesterday about 'willing to overshoot.' Powell due up in 35 minutes.

can't agree more!

US CPI - January Preview

1. US CPI m/m
2. US Core CPI m/m
3. US CPI y/y

Forecasts

1. US CPI m/m: I see good potential for a lower number even though the consensus forecast is already low at -0.1%. As we've gotten closer to the release, the forecasts are skewing lower. More recent forecasts are important because they're usually done with newer information. The range of forecasts are mostly between -0.2% and 0.1%. Median forecast is -0.1% and average is -0.05%.
2. US Core CPI m/m: Range of forecasts are between 0.2% and 0.4%. The median is 0.3% and the average is 0.29%.
3. US CPI y/y: Range of forecasts are between 6.3% and 6.8%. Although there's a wide range, both the median and average forecasts are 6.5%. There's plenty of uncertainty here and ripe to trigger markets.

Recent impacts

Dec 13 - On lower than expected CPI data, the USD sold off across the board:

Nov 10 - On lower than expected CPI data, the USD sold off across the board:

Summary

CPI remains the most closely watched US (and global) data. This month will be no different. Consensus for CPI is that it'll show 6.5% on an annual basis. That would be the lowest level since Nov 2021 and the sixth consecutive month of falling inflation.

Feb FOMC hike probabilities are telling us that most are expected the Fed to further slow rake hikes in Feb. Currently, a 25 bps hike is already 78% priced in.

Last week's employment data showed just how much the markets are focused on inflation data right now. The market shrugged off a better NFP and unemployment rate, and on lower wage inflation the USD sold off. Everything denominated in USD rallied, including bitcoin.

On lower than expected inflation data, bitcoin would rally as the US dollar falls. On higher than expected inflation data, bitcoin would fall as the US dollar rises. Any significant deviation from forecasts could provide significant follow through. This is a release with an increased chance for a whipsaw. If the headline and core data paint a different picture, look out and don't expect any immediate direction. The extent of any potential rally will be highly dependent on deviations from forecasts.

As long as both the core and overall number don't contradict each other, there should be ample trading opportunities. Stay patient. As always, good luck out there!

Thanks buddy, very helpful analysis!

The story after CPI is rate expectations for the Feb and March FOMC meetings. Both CPI and the core number came out as expected. Then, after the release Fed's Harker came out and backed the 25 bps rate hike for Feb.

After the release, as of 9am, the market is pricing in a 25 bps increase for Feb and March.

Feb rate hike expectations:

March rate hike expectations:

US PPI - January Preview

https://www.cryptocraft.com/calendar?day=jan18.2023

1. While the data is important, historically it's not one that presents trading opportunities. Additionally, it's being released alongside US retail sales. Expect volatility.
2. Overall PPI is expected at -0.1%. The range of estimates are from -0.3% to 0.1%.
3. Core PPI is expected at 0.1%. Estimates are mostly split between 0.1% and 0.2%. The average forecast is 0.12%

This data is not expected to move the needle in terms of Feb rate hike expectations as a 25 bps hike for Feb is almost fully priced in.

It's best to stay on the sidelines rather than getting overly aggressive. PPI data is always worth monitoring. We are likely to see some volatility around release time but as recent history shows, any move should be limited. However, with retail sales being released at the same time, there could be more volatility than you'd otherwise expect.

Any shift in rate expectations will be related to FOMC's March meeting. Currently, traders are betting that after a Feb 25 bps rate hike, the Fed will follow up with another 25 BPs.

There's a lot of data dropping at the same time. Even if we do see the market take a direction, it'll probably after a knee jerk reaction. As always, be careful out there and good luck traders!

FOMC Meeting - February Preview

1. US Federal Funds Rate
2. US FOMC Statement
3. US FOMC Press Conference

Forecasts and expectations

The Fed will raise rates by 25 bps following last month's 50 bps increase and four straight 75 bps hikes. The market has fully priced in the 25 bps rate hike.

The attention is on Powell's press conference. The market continues to believe rate cuts are coming later this year in spite of Fed officials consistently saying that after reaching peak rates, they will pause for quite some time. Powell has failed several times to deliver a hawkish message. This is potentially the meeting he stands firm and pushes back on expectations the Fed will cut rates later this year.

What to expect

There's risk this meeting associated with Powell being more hawkish than expected. He may stop short of ruling our rate cuts this year, but his message will attempt to push back on those 2023 rate cut expectations.

On the other hand, Employment Cost Index released this morning showed wages are slowing more than expected. A dovish development. That could open the door for the Fed to signal March might be the last rate hike before pausing.

Traders expect peak policy rates at around 4.9%. The Fed's December forecasts show a terminal rate of 5.1%. 17 out of the 19 officials project rates above 5% this year. Two of them above 5.5%. One official projects rates staying above 5.5% through 2025.

Either the market will have to adjust and price in a higher peak rate or the Fed will bring down their forecasts for peak rates, which we won't see until the March economic projections. It's difficult to believe the Fed will undercut a hawkish tone with anything the market can interpret as dovish.

As far as trading opportunities, the conservative approach is to wait until after Powell starts his presser and a trend emerges. The two scenarios are:

- A more dovish than expected Fed sends US dollar lower while dollar-denominated assets higher. Bitcoin would rally.

- A more hawkish than expected Fed sends the US dollar in rally mode as dollar-denominated assets sell off. Bitcoin would move lower.

It's widely expected that Powell to attempt to deliver a hawkish message, although he has yet to successfully do that.

As always with the FOMC meetings, be careful with any trades taken before Powell's press conference. Whatever direction the market takes as the rate decision is announced and statement released, it can be quickly reversed 30 minutes later as Powell starts to speak. Lots of moving parts here. As always, caution is advised. Good luck out there!

US Employment Data - February Preview

1. Non-Farm Employment Change
2. Unemployment Rate
3. Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Forecasts

NFP forecasts are mostly within a range of about 150K to 235K. The average estimate is 198K and median 190K. The more recent forecasts have been skewed to potentially a surprise to the upside.

Unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%. While the median forecast is 3.6%, the average is 3.5%. That skew shows there could be a surprise better than expected number.

Average hourly earnings is forecasted at 0.3%. The average forecast is 0.32%. The consensus is slightly higher than 0.3%, so anything lower could be more of a surprise and it could take center stage.

Other employment data

JOLTS unexpectedly rose (most since July 2021) to just over 11M job vacancies and that was against an expected ~10.3M. Job opening increases were in retail trade and construction while the info tech sector vacancies decreased. The number of job openings to unemployed people is at near a record high at 1.9, showing no signs of weakness in the job market.
Unemployment claims keeps coming down and is showing no signs of a weaker job market.

ADP is not a good indicator in terms of forecasting NFP, but it’s notable it did miss big this week coming in at 106K vs 176K expected. Challenger job cuts have spiked dramatically in recent months. These two indicators signaling there could be some weakness in the labor market.


Last month's market impact

Last month, in spite of strong NFP and unemployment rate, average hourly earnings fueled a sell off in the US dollar when it missed at 0.3% against a forecast of 0.4%, and the prior got revised from 0.6% to 0.4%.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Summary

While rate expectations for the March meeting are widely aligned that the Fed will raise rates another 25 bps, there's a big disconnected between the Fed and the markets about what's going to happen thereafter. The Fed has remained consistent in that ongoing rate hikes are needed. More importantly the Dec economic projections showed 17 of the 19 Fed officials project a terminal rate over 5.0% while the market is pricing in a peak rate of 4.9%. Will the Fed pause after March? The market seems to think so but the Fed hasn't signaled that yet. May rate probabilities is where the uncertainty lies.

Job market could start to play a bigger role in Fed policy decisions, particularly if it starts to show some tightening. A strong labor market justifies more Fed aggressiveness. Signs of weakening could mean a pause after March. This jobs report is widely expected to show little, if any signs of weakness. Keep your eye on wage inflation data as that could be where the focus is, especially if it deviates from the other two.

Stronger than expected data could trigger markets to start pricing in a greater chance of a more aggressive Fed. This would bring selling pressure to Bitcoin as the US dollar moves higher.

Weaker than expected data would add to the sentiment that the Fed could pause after the March rate hike. This would be positive for Bitcoin and bearish for the US dollar.

Remember, this is a simultaneous release and susceptible to whipsaws if the unemployment rate, NFP, and avg hourly earnings paint a different picture. Any further signs of easing wage inflation will be significant, positive for bitcoin as the US dollar sells off.

There's always the potential for big moves across all dollar-denominated assets. It's best to sit tight and wait for a trend emerge. There's slightly more risk in a weaker jobs numbers/lower wages as the market would continue to price in a less aggressive Fed. As always, caution is advised. Good luck traders!

US CPI - February Preview

1. US CPI y/y
2. US CPI m/m
3. US Core CPI m/m

Forecasts

1. US CPI y/y: Range of forecasts are between 6.1% and 6.4%. The average estimate is 6.23% and the median 6.2%.
2. US CPI m/m: The range of forecasts are mostly between 0.4% and 0.5%. Median forecast is 0.5% and average is 0.45%.
3. US Core CPI m/m: Range of forecasts are between 0.3% and 0.4%. The median is 0.4% and the average is 0.36%.

Last month's impact

Last month's CPI data came in as expected, which brought some volatility to the markets but not as much as we've been accustomed to seeing.

Summary

CPI remains the most closely watched US (and global) data. This month will be no different.

Consensus for CPI is that it'll show 6.2% on an annual basis. That would be the lowest level since Oct 2021 and the seventh consecutive month of falling inflation. However, given the Fed's 2% inflation target, it's still very high.

FOMC hike probabilities are telling us that another 25 bps rate hike is already priced in for the March FOMC meeting. And in May, another 25 bps rate hike is at 72% priced in.

On lower than expected inflation data, US dollar will fall as the market prices in a more dovish Fed. Higher than expected inflation data is bullish for the US dollar as a more hawkish Fed is priced in. Any significant deviation from forecasts could provide significant follow through. This is a release with an increased chance for a whipsaw. If the headline and core data paint a different picture, look out and don't expect any immediate direction. The extent of any potential rally will be highly dependent on deviations from forecasts.

As long as both the core and overall number don't contradict each other, there should be ample trading opportunities.

Stay patient. As always, good luck out there!

US Retail Sales - February Preview

1. US Retail Sales m/m
2. US Core Retail Sales m/m

Forecasts

1. Retail Sales m/m: There's a wide range of estimates between 0.5% and 3.0%. The median estimate is 2.0% and the average is 1.86%.
2. Core Retail Sales m/m: Range of estimates between 0.1% and 2.2%. The median forecast is 0.9% and the average is 1.04%.

What to expect

Following two consecutive negative readings, both retail sales figures along with the GDP components are expected to rise. Most strength is being attributed to stronger auto sales along with higher gas prices. Keep your eye out for a miss against the 0.9% forecast in the core number.

While important enough to monitor, this data hasn't been in focus for a long time and while volatility is always expected, it likely won't be a big market mover in the near future.

This is a release with an increased chance for a whipsaw. If the headline and core data paint a different picture, expect a whipsaw. It's also not a release I'd expect any follow through from, barring outrageous deviations from forecasts, and in the same direction.

US PPI - February Preview

1. US Core PPI m/m
2. US PPI m/m

Forecasts

1. While the data is important, historically it's not one that presents trading opportunities.
2. Overall PPI is expected at 0.4%. The range of estimates are mostly between 0.3% to 0.5%. The average estimate is 0.37%
3. Core PPI is expected at 0.3%. The range of estimates are from 0.1% to 0.5%. The average estimate is 0.28%

Summary

This data is not expected to move the needle in terms of rate hike expectations for the next two FOMC meetings. Traders are pricing in a 25 bps rate hike over the next two meetings (March, May). The Fed remains data dependent, inflation still remains significantly above their 2% target. Elevated inflation and a strong labor market has been pushing the market to price in a more hawkish Fed.

There is a lot of uncertainty around the June meeting. Market participants are split between the Fed pausing and continuing with a 25 bps rate hike. As these probabilities shift, so will the value of the US dollar along with any asset price in dollars.

It's not likely that PPI data will move the needle enough for any of the upcoming meetings. Thus, volatility following the release could stay relatively muted.

PPI could present trading opportunities but normally in months where it's released ahead of the CPI report, which is not the case this month. In fact, the BLS isn't scheduling PPI ahead of CPI for the remainder of this year.

It's best to stay on the sidelines for this one. As always, caution is advised and good luck out there!

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday as part of his semiannual monetary policy report. Traders will be watching for any clues on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook. Powell is expected to reiterate that the Fed will continue its fight against inflation while remaining data dependent.

The testimonies will also set the stage for the monthly payrolls report on Friday, which will show the state of the labor market in February. Economists expect an increase of ~225K jobs, after a robust 517K gain in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.4%.

FOMC Meeting - March Preview

1. FOMC Economic Projections
2. FOMC Statement
3. Federal Funds Rate
4. FOMC Press Conference

Forecasts and expectations

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 bps.

The banking crisis, starting with the abrupt fall of SVB, was at the beginning of the Fed's blackout period. There's been no Fedspeak to guide the markets since. Thus, there's a ton of uncertainty what the Fed will do going forward. Currently, the market is mostly betting on another 25 bps rate hike in May.

Focus on the dot plot

Barring any surprises with the rate decision, focus will quickly shift to the Fed's rate projections. Before the banking failures, markets were pricing in a higher than previous terminal rate closer to 6%. Those bets were quickly reversed in the last couple of weeks. Now the peak rate being priced in is 5.25%. If the Fed's dot plot shows a higher peak rate than the market is pricing in, that would be hawkish for the US dollar. While bitcoin has been rallying lately, we could see some of those gains given back if the markets start pricing in more rate hikes. Here's a look at the last rate dot plot from Dec.

Summary

The market has been really good at interpreting anything the Fed or Powell does as dovish. Given the concerns in the banking sector, the Fed has reasons to keep it conservative. Like I said before though, we haven't heard Fed officials comment on the banking crisis. This will be the first chance we get to hear what Powell and Co are thinking, which could make the press conference a wild one.

As far as trading opportunities, the conservative approach is to wait until after Powell starts his presser and a trend emerges. The two scenarios are:

- A more dovish than expected Fed sends US dollar lower while dollar-denominated assets higher. Bitcoin would rally.

- A more hawkish than expected Fed sends the US dollar in rally mode as dollar-denominated assets sell off. Bitcoin would move lower.

Keep your eye out for a higher than 5.25% peak rate in the Economic Projections. Then, watch for Powell to give us clues about the May meeting. He's likely to say the Fed will remain data dependent but given there's another variable (banking crisis) to account for, there's going to be something new for the markets to price in.

As always with the FOMC meetings, be careful with any trades taken before Powell's press conference. Whatever direction the market takes as the rate decision is announced and statement released, it can be quickly reversed 30 minutes later as Powell starts to speak. Lots of moving parts here. As always, caution is advised. Good luck out there!