High Impact Events Trading... Bitcoin

In this thread, the focus is on high impact calendar events related to Bitcoin. Participation is welcomed!

Upcoming:

1. TBD

Archive:

1. FOMC Meeting - May Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...4#post14414034
2. US Employment Data - April Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...1#post14387851
3. FOMC Meeting - March Preview - https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...3#post14369263
4. US PPI - February Preview - https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...7#post14326657
5. US Retail Sales - February Preview - https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14325776
6. US CPI - February Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...5#post14324145
7. US Employment Data - February Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...1#post14311151
8. FOMC Meeting - February Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14307686
9. US PPI - January Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...9#post14291189
10. US CPI - January Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...3#post14284363
11. US Employment Data - January Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...2#post14277372
12. FOMC Meeting - December Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...5#post14255595
13. US CPI - December Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...7#post14252557
14. US Employment Data - December Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...4#post14241184
15. US Core PCE Price Index - November Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...8#post14239908
16. US PPI - November Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...4#post14222254
17. US CPI - November Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...9#post14216919
18. US Employment Data - November Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...1#post14209271
19. FOMC - November Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...4#post14205234
20. US CPI - October Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14177096
21. US PPI - October Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...3#post14174653
22. FOMC - September Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14144586
23. US PPI - September Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...7#post14135797
24. US CPI - September Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14133906
25. US Employment Data: September Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14121356
26. US Core PCE Price Index: August Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14113556
27. FOMC Meeting Minutes: August Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...6#post14102726
28. US PPI data - August Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...0#post14096130
29. US CPI - August Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...9#post14094099
30. US Employment Data: August Preview: https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/p...2#post14089552

US Employment Data - August Preview

1. Non-Farm Employment Change
2. Unemployment Rate

Forecasts

 

1. NFP: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are in a wide range between 50K and 325K. Average forecast is ~237K while the median is 250K. It should be noted that the more recent forecasts have been closer to the 300K area.
2. Unemployment rate: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are mostly in agreement at 3.6% with a few outliers at 3.5% and 3.7%.

Recent Impacts (btc/usd)

July 8th

June 3rd

May 6th

April 1st

March 4th

Feb 4th

Jan 7th


Summary

Caution is advised. NFP hasn't been a big market mover in the crypto space. It likely will have more impact in the near future as labor market data starts to show the impact from the aggressive rate hikes. I don't think we're there yet. I'll be on the sidelines.

Been thinking about this, however, from my observations btc doesn't seem to respond allot to regular news.
As much as i would love to trade crypto fundamental i can't see any news that makes it move consistently.

A lot of it has to do with moves in the greenback. But, there are some events that have and could cause some risk on/off (FOMC, CPI, Minutes) environments. That would probably be where the better bitcoin trading opportunities are. Hoping to shine some light on this by tracking it.

I'm thinking another 300K+ print is bearish for BTC since the Fed will want to keep hiking. Even Kashkari has been sounding pretty hawkish lately: https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/117...slowly-in-2021 & Mester was explicitly looking for a rise in unemployment and said it's necessary for price stability: https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/117...for-entrenched.

But if we see an uptick in the Unemployment Rate or a big miss to the downside on NFP the Powell Pivot narrative will be bullish BTC, at least in the short term.

That's been true for a long time, but Fed rates, inflation indicators, and GDP have been consistently moving crypto in recent months. Take another look my friend!

US Employment Data - August Follow up


Following a significant surprise to the upside in NFP, along with a downtick in the unemployment rate, bitcoin sold off as the US dollar rallied. Clearly, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes haven't hit the labor market yet but it should continue to become more in focus in the coming months. I'd expect US payroll data to keep impacting bitcoin and the broader market.

US CPI - August Preview

1. CPI m/m
2. Core CPI m/m

Forecasts

1. CPI m/m is expected to come in at 0.2%. The range of estimates is mostly between 0.1%-0.3%.
2. Core CPI m/m forecasts are mostly between 0.5%-0.6%, with slightly more estimates favoring 0.5%.
3. The annual headline number should fall between 8.6%-8.8%. Keep an eye out for a significant deviation from these forecasts.

Recent impacts (btc/usd)

July

June

May

April

March

February

Janurary


Summary:

With the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation, the market is finally expecting inflation data to show some signs of slowing. There's risk on both sides. On higher than expected data, the US dollar should rally while bitcoin sells off on the prospects of continued hawkish Fed. Any signs of a slow down in inflation data (lower than exptected) could trigger the market to start pricing a less aggressive Fed and we might see a rally in bitcoin while the US dollar sells off.

As recent history suggests, we should expect volatility on the release. I'm looking for a significant deviation from forecasts, that's where we could see a move one way or another which could give us ample opportunity for some profits on a big move. As shown by recent history, higher than expected data should trigger a move lower in bitcoin, while anything in-line or lower than expected should propel bitcoin higher.

As always, caution is advised.

US CPI data - August Follow up

US inflation data continues to be one of the biggest market movers in the crypto space. This morning the BLS reported a pretty significant miss, especially considering we've seen upside surprises for most of this year. Both the headline and core number missed by two percentage points. The annualized overall inflation was reported at 8.5%, outside of the range (8.6%-8.8%) discussed in the preview. As anticipated in the case of lower than expected data, Bitcoin rallied as the US dollar sold off.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

US PPI data - Trading opportunity?

Recent impacts (btc/usd)

July

June

May

April

March

February

January

Summary

Minimal volatility can be expected but should be relatively muted outside of any large surprises. While the possibility exists that a significant deviation from forecasts could trigger moves, the likelihood is very low.

US PPI data - August Follow up

After a big miss in both overall and core PPI, there was some volatility after an initial spike, and a bigger than average move for this data. However, lower inflation was mostly priced in as CPI came in lower than expected a day earlier. As stated in the August preview, trading opportunities on this data release will be very limited, at least for now.

FOMC Meeting Minutes - August Preview

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Recent impacts (btc/usd)

July

May

April

February

January


Summary

The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points the last two consecutive meetings. Since the last meeting in July, the market has been swinging between a 50 and 75 bps hike probabilities for the September meeting. As it stands, the probabilities for a 50 bps hike are a little higher at 59.5% compared to 40.5% for a 75 bps hike.

Since the last rate hike in July, adding to the uncertainty, we’ve seen strong labor market data along with lower-than-expected inflation figures. The biggest question that needs answering is will the Fed opt for smaller incremental 50 bps increases or is the door still open for larger increases? The minutes is unlikely to add much in terms of clarity.

The Fed has been focused on taming inflation with willingness to slow down the labor market. There’s been some rumblings of a soft vs hard landing, but we aren’t there yet. Powell has made it clear that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. We should continue to see data play a significant role leading up to the Sept meeting. As for these minutes, it’s all about whether FOMC members hint at scaling back from 75 bps or if they stay hawkish enough to potentially raise rates by 75 bps for a third consecutive meeting.

Remember this report has to be digested and we’ll likely see some heavy volatility before any clear direction, if any. Watch for any straightforward clues on the size of the next rate hike.

If the market sees a 75bps as a greater possibility, then the US dollar would rally as bitcoin sells off. Conversely, any signal to pivot to 50 bps could trigger a sell off in the US dollar and send bitcoin higher. The more likely scenario is continued uncertainty. The possibility for a whipsaw is high, particularly on the release as market participants attempt to digest the text.

Good luck out there!

Surprisingly, CME FedWatch Tool now showing almost an even split betweein 50 and 75 bps as far as what the market is pricing in for the Sept Fed meeting.

The market is as uncertain as it gets about the Fed's next move. Clues in the minutes will be that much more important either way, although many expect the Fed to stay on the fence and rely on the data leading up to the Sept meeting. Before then, we'll have another jobs report and inflation reading.

This is great thread as I like to trade news on crypto since BTC is reacting to macro news for now. Do you have any updates or analysis on the FOMC Minutes yet? BTC just took a huge dump after the FOMC Minutes and I don't know why

FOMC Meeting Minutes - August Follow up

FOMC Meeting Minutes

As expected, the minutes didn't shine much light on where the Fed is going in the September meeting. If anything, they might have added to the uncertainty. But the fact that the minutes were from before the latest jobs data and inflation reports, it didn't carry much weight. The Fed has become very data dependent.

On the release, the price of btc/usd whipsawed and then there was a little run up before coming back down. No direction, just some volatility.

As of this morning, the market is pricing in a slightly higher chance of a 75 bps rate hike at the Sept meeting. I wouldn't put too much stock into it because we still have a lot of data to come out before then.

Glad to have you on board!

US Core PCE Price Index - August Preview

Core PCE Price Index m/m


Forecast

The most popular forecast is 0.3%. The second most popular forecast is 0.1%. The third most pupolar is 0.2%, which is roughly the average of all forecasts.

1. The range of estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg are mostly between 0.1%-0.3%. What's interesting here is the distribution. While both the median and mean come out to 0.2%, there are more forecasts for 0.1% and 0.3% than there are for 0.2%. This signals some uncertainty in expectations and a greater probability of a deviation from market consensus.
2. The range of forecasts from economists surveyed by Reuters are also mostly between 0.1%-0.3%. The distribution here is more or less the same.

Recent impacts (btc/usd)

July

June

May

April

March

February

January



Summary

This is the Fed's favored inflation indicator. Given the Fed's data dependent approach there's the potential this data can impact the markets on a deviation from forecasts. It generally doesn't deviate much. If it does it's usually not far from market consensus. That's a big reason this data hasn't had any major impact on crypto so far in 2022.

A lower than expected number could trigger markets to start pricing in a higher probability of a 50 bps Sept rate hike. I'd expect bitcoin to head higher in this scenario and the US dollar would sell off. If PCE comes in higher than expected we could see the pricing in of 75 bps Sept rate hike. Bitcoin could sell off in this case as the US dollar rallies. The more deviation from the 0.2% forecasts the bigger expected move. A significant miss would be 0.2 percentage points or more from forecasts (0.0% or less | 0.4% or higher).

Released at the same time, Personal Income and Personal Spending can play a role in market moves but they are usually overshadowed by the PCE price index. If PCE comes out in line with expectations those other data sets may play a factor but I'd expect volatility to be limited.

As of today, per CME's FedWatch the market is pricing in a 62.5% probability of a 75 bps rate hike. This tells us there could be slightly more risk in a lower than expected inflation number. We'll have to see where the probabilities are closer to the release.

Powell's Jackson Hole speech is an hour and half after this release so the data could also play a part in his messaging/guidance.

The best approach is to wait until the data comes out. Considering more are forecasting a surprise to the upside we can assume that a higher than expected PCE has been somewhat priced in. Therefore, as previously mentioned there could be more risk in a miss. Any deviation from the 0.2% forecasts could have impact. If there's a miss by 0.2 percentage points or more, there could be some follow through and potential to trade it.

Good luck out there!

US Core PCE Price Index - August Follow up

As expected, bitcoin rallied on a lower than expected PCE number. Personal Spending and Personal Income both missed too, which contributed to the move. The follow through was a little surprising. This was a bigger than usual move on this data, and a lot of that has to do with the Fed's data dependency. Inflation data will continue to be in focus until the Fed says otherwise.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Real good thread here you've got EventsTrader.

US Employment Data - September Preview

1. Non-Farm Employment Change
2. Unemployment Rate

Forecasts

1. NFP: Per Bloomberg’s survey of economists, the range of estimates are mostly from around 244 to 374, leaving out outliers. The average estimate is 295 and the median 298.
2. Unemployment rate: Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that the unemployment rate will remain at 3.5%. Of those who didn’t forecast 3.5%, slightly more are calling for 3.4% than 3.6%.

August impact (btc/usd) see Jan - July impacts

August 5th

Summary

All eyes will be on this jobs report. The big question is whether the Fed’s rate hikes has begun to hit the labor market yet. If not, that might be taken as a signal that the Fed has room to continue the aggressive rate hikes. Traders are looking for signs from the data as the Fed officials keep reiterating their data dependent approach.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came back after a two month hiatus. While it’s never been a reliable leading indicator for NFP, it’s the most recent so it’s worth a look. ADP was forecasted to show an increase of 300K but only came in at 132K. A big miss. Like I said, it shouldn't be relied on as a precursor to NFP but worth considering, especially at a time like now when we're waiting on a turn.

Last month, many were expecting a weak NFP number but it didn't happen. It came in way better than expected at 528K vs 250K expected.

Currently, the market is pricing in a 72% change of a 75 bps September rate hike by the Fed per the CME FedWatch Tool.

A weaker than expected report could trigger the pricing in of a 50 bps rate hike and bitcoin could rally as the US dollar sells off. If the jobs data comes in as expected or better, that could send a signal to the markets that the labor market can withstand the continued aggressive Fed, for now. This would send bitcoin lower while the US dollar appreciates.

US employment data is always a big mover and heavy volatility is expected. Because the unemployment rate and payroll data are due at the same time, this release is susceptible to whipsaws in the scenario where one improves and the other worsens. A lot of moving parts here, be cautious out there!