Trading Bitcoin with Trend lines and S/R 418 replies
Accounts for trading Bitcoin 51 replies
Bitcoin and crypto trading (only BITMEX) 2 replies
Recent Impacts (btc/usd)
Caution is advised. NFP hasn't been a big market mover in the crypto space. It likely will have more impact in the near future as labor market data starts to show the impact from the aggressive rate hikes. I don't think we're there yet. I'll be on the sidelines.
DislikedBeen thinking about this, however, from my observations btc doesn't seem to respond allot to regular news. As much as i would love to trade crypto fundamental i can't see any news that makes it move consistently.Ignored
DislikedUS Employment Data - August Preview Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Forecasts NFP: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are in a wide range between 50K and 325K. Average forecast is ~237K while the median is 250K. It should be noted that the more recent forecasts have been closer to the 300K area.Ignored
Dislikedfrom my observations btc doesn't seem to respond allot to regular news.Ignored
Recent impacts (btc/usd)
The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points the last two consecutive meetings. Since the last meeting in July, the market has been swinging between a 50 and 75 bps hike probabilities for the September meeting. As it stands, the probabilities for a 50 bps hike are a little higher at 59.5% compared to 40.5% for a 75 bps hike.
Since the last rate hike in July, adding to the uncertainty, we’ve seen strong labor market data along with lower-than-expected inflation figures. The biggest question that needs answering is will the Fed opt for smaller incremental 50 bps increases or is the door still open for larger increases? The minutes is unlikely to add much in terms of clarity.
The Fed has been focused on taming inflation with willingness to slow down the labor market. There’s been some rumblings of a soft vs hard landing, but we aren’t there yet. Powell has made it clear that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. We should continue to see data play a significant role leading up to the Sept meeting. As for these minutes, it’s all about whether FOMC members hint at scaling back from 75 bps or if they stay hawkish enough to potentially raise rates by 75 bps for a third consecutive meeting.
Remember this report has to be digested and we’ll likely see some heavy volatility before any clear direction, if any. Watch for any straightforward clues on the size of the next rate hike.
If the market sees a 75bps as a greater possibility, then the US dollar would rally as bitcoin sells off. Conversely, any signal to pivot to 50 bps could trigger a sell off in the US dollar and send bitcoin higher. The more likely scenario is continued uncertainty. The possibility for a whipsaw is high, particularly on the release as market participants attempt to digest the text.
Good luck out there!