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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,821
  • May 20, 2014 12:29pm May 20, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting venzen
BTC-e H4 i didn't post this chart with it's Bitstamp companion chart earlier today - this one has labels which explains the current exhuberant upmove - correction confused for a rally... Indicators are overbought in every timeframe from 5min to daily. Divergence is compound and pervasive. I expected the downtrend to be staggered and gradual, but this reckless move up means the drop will be a real shocker... the current PA up from 440 should be wiped out by a single hourly candle. The purple target at 220 is the lowest this wave 5 could go if the...
Hello
I agree with that. We are having a five structure at different degree here. This is either the C wave of the B you mention on your chart. Or this the wave i of 3 of an advance as emptymind said.
Either way, their is five wave in now, so this will correct soon. 460 <stamp> if it's the beginning of wave 3 and 380 to 340 if it's a wave B.
Because I'm not convince by the previous structure as a wave 1 and wave 2, I stick with plan B (wave)
In both case scenario this sharp move was more than necessary.
  • #3,822
  • May 20, 2014 1:22pm May 20, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello I agree with that. We are having a five structure at different degree here. This is either the C wave of the B you mention on your chart. Or this the wave i of 3 of an advance as emptymind said. Either way, their is five wave in now, so this will correct soon. 460 <stamp> if it's the beginning of wave 3 and 380 to 340 if it's a wave B. Because I'm not convince by the previous structure as a wave 1 and wave 2, I stick with plan B (wave) In both case scenario this sharp move was more than necessary.
hi lady_luck,

so Plan B has been executed and now for C

If we keep our options open and consider this may also be a part of the advance then the current wave down should return to at most 440/450 and then make a new high above 500 - and it should do it quickly (next day or two) since according to this Plan we're in a 3rd wave - no messing around!

However, Plan B seems more likely because it fits the preceding waves and a B wave is the precise reason why the term "bear market rally" exists as well as the notion of a "false breakout" and we see the typical psychological characteristic of a B wave that "If the analyst can easily say to him/herself "There is something wrong with this market", chances are it's a B wave. " (EWP p81)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,823
  • May 20, 2014 1:29pm May 20, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting emptymind
i just want to say that a cash market (bitstamp) carries more weight than a leveraged market (btce) example, in the "real" world, if there is conflicting signals or counts you take the spx cash market over the e-mini i also have more faith in cycles more than trying to decipher elliott wave counts.... 9 weeks to peak sounds right for a phase transition duration. if you look in the past there have been 11, 10 and 9 week moves
i agree
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,824
  • May 20, 2014 1:51pm May 20, 2014 1:51pm
BTCe 15min

Reverse divergence implies one more high

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCe_revdiv_21May2014.png Size: 82 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,825
  • May 20, 2014 2:28pm May 20, 2014 2:28pm
i have a sell limit order sitting @ 490 tp at 450. How much higher do you think it will creep?
  • #3,826
  • May 20, 2014 4:10pm May 20, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting weti
i have a sell limit order sitting @ 490 tp at 450. How much higher do you think it will creep?
hi weti,
which exchange are you trading on?

If it's Bitstamp then the next target up is likely $520, but price is currently consolidating below 490 :/

edit: more upside is not guaranteed - price may be going down from here - it's an uncertain moment for the market!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,827
  • May 20, 2014 7:43pm May 20, 2014 7:43pm
Quoting venzen
Bitstamp 4 hour chart We'll have to wait for KO to confirm I did these right. {image}
Well done venzen Consider yourself a proficient Magnetic line trader..
Money Makes Money
  • #3,828
  • May 20, 2014 8:10pm May 20, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting weti
i have a sell limit order sitting @ 490 tp at 450. How much higher do you think it will creep?
On Btc-e, even taken to the extreme it is unlikely your trade will be triggered at 490. The retrace should come down to 440 even if this is the start of an uptrend.
According to the Fib's the downtrend is still in play. If so, the next target would be 400. Only above 550 will prove otherwise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 44 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,829
  • May 20, 2014 8:19pm May 20, 2014 8:19pm
Quoting venzen
BTC-e H4 i didn't post this chart with it's Bitstamp companion chart earlier today - this one has labels which explains the current exhuberant upmove - correction confused for a rally... Indicators are overbought in every timeframe from 5min to daily. Divergence is compound and pervasive. I expected the downtrend to be staggered and gradual, but this reckless move up means the drop will be a real shocker... the current PA up from 440 should be wiped out by a single hourly candle. The purple target at 220 is the lowest this wave 5 could go if the...
Hi venzen. I've relabelled your chart as the other possibility to be wary of. There are valid arguments for both at this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_4h_19May2014.1.png Size: 160 KB
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  • #3,830
  • May 20, 2014 11:43pm May 20, 2014 11:43pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Well done venzen Consider yourself a proficient Magnetic line trader..
KO, thanks for your help with this... i'll keep trying. What I notice is that targets derived by Magnetic Lines mostly coincide with a Fib extension. One would expect this and what's great about applying ML is that it shows you which Fib is being targeted, so you're not left staring at 1.618, 2.618, 3.618 etc and wondering "now... which one?"

As a standalone method, it's the most effective forecasting method and trading tool i've seen. But it only looks simple - there are some subtleties and it requires experience
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,831
  • May 20, 2014 11:51pm May 20, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen. I've relabelled your chart as the other possibility to be wary of. There are valid arguments for both at this time. {image}
Yeah, thanks for this. We have to be flexible right now. Your count is exactly what's going on if this upmove is no longer part of the downtrend.

What I'm assuming is this: we're either going up in a new rally to the moon or this is the last wave of an upward correction which will see price turn back down and target those levels we've confirmed during the past month. Either way, the indicators signal that a correction is due - whether more upside or not - and the depth of that correction will reveal a lot. If it smashes the indicators down to zero while achieving only limited downside (>450) then I'm going to switch to long. If it pops and drops, then we know which downside targets to expect.

The fact that an important trendline has been breached, is of course a major alarm bell, but using that as the one and only signal that advance is underway is not wise.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,832
  • May 21, 2014 12:05am May 21, 2014 12:05am
Quoting venzen
{quote} KO, thanks for your help with this... i'll keep trying. What I notice is that targets derived by Magnetic Lines mostly coincide with a Fib extension. One would expect this and what's great about applying ML is that it shows you which Fib is being targeted, so you're not left staring at 1.618, 2.618, 3.618 etc and wondering "now... which one?" As a standalone method, it's the most effective forecasting method and trading tool i've seen. But it only looks simple - there are some subtleties and it requires experience
Yes I often use Fib's to confirm the MLs & vice versa.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,833
  • May 21, 2014 3:44am May 21, 2014 3:44am
Quoting dswk
Hi. some stuffs and share for the week-end. some free signals on cryptocurrencies and fx by my twitter feed : https://twitter.com/fxmgm My view on BTC (H4 based) 1st graph and another view (H1 Based) 2nd graph : {image} {image}
Still in...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusd-d1-distel-enterprise.png Size: 29 KB
  • #3,834
  • May 21, 2014 5:14am May 21, 2014 5:14am
Interesting..While LTC & BTC were going UP. Ltc was losing big time to Btc. Ltc/Usd & Btc/Usd went up in equal proportions, yet Ltc went down in the same proportion against Btc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ltcbtch1.png Size: 28 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,835
  • May 21, 2014 5:19am May 21, 2014 5:19am
Quoting dswk
{quote} Still in... {image}
What's your target.??
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  • #3,836
  • May 21, 2014 5:51am May 21, 2014 5:51am
Quoting KiwiOz
Interesting..While LTC & BTC were going UP. Ltc was losing big time to Btc. Ltc/Usd & Btc/Usd went up in equal proportions, yet Ltc went down in the same proportion against Btc. {image}
Which is probably why Ltc/Usd is leading the way back down again.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,837
  • May 21, 2014 10:29am May 21, 2014 10:29am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} What's your target.??
> 500 / 540 where i would take some profits after reinforce for more if we break upside.

i've time ...
  • #3,838
  • May 21, 2014 6:23pm May 21, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting dswk
{quote} > 500 / 540 where i would take some profits after reinforce for more if we break upside. i've time ...
Good...I presume you have your SL at around 460 by now....
Money Makes Money
  • #3,839
  • May 21, 2014 6:32pm May 21, 2014 6:32pm
LTC still leading the way....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ltcusdh1.png Size: 29 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,840
  • May 21, 2014 6:41pm May 21, 2014 6:41pm
Ltc/Btc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ltcbtcdaily.png Size: 33 KB
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