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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,861
  • May 23, 2014 12:34pm May 23, 2014 12:34pm
hi lady_luck,

There is a BTCe chart missing from my previous post I' having trouble updating it - not sure if it's a Forex Factory bug or my internet connection, so i'll just post it here:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCe_stages_23May2014.png Size: 92 KB


What's difficult to understand with this wave up is that it started gradually, so it's difficult to know what started it... the previous 3 wave structure (from 340) during the decline?, or this messy sideways during May? So drawing channel TLs now is impossible because it's early in the advance - and it's looking very much like a strong advance is underway.

There is also the subwave structure of each wave in the advance. I'm seeing a-b-c in each push up - the 1st wave in each case has 3 waves and stands apart from what follows each time. So, yes, that's a diagonal signature. But where do we start counting this diagonal from? And without knowing the start, where do we draw it's channel lines?

If this wave up started from near 400 then it could be a leading diagonal (that explains the wide base) - yet if we have a leading diag, then we can be sure that wave 4 will come into the price territory of wave 1 - which is about 420.

If it's just a plain vanilla diag (not leading) then matter is open ended - we can expect a 4th wave drop to the Fib you mention and then expect a powerful 5th wave to near 700 or 800. I'm not positioned for that and would prefer a deeper correction.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,862
  • Edited May 24, 2014 1:39am May 23, 2014 12:45pm | Edited May 24, 2014 1:39am
i'm having a lot of technical problems posting tonight...

Anyway, what i forgot to add in previous posts is that I believe the wave up is complete. With a shallow retrace and a new high, this idea will be invalidated, but what i expect to see now is a drop to the mid or low 400s (if this is wave 2 down) or if it's wave C of a continuing decline (which looks unlikely now - but this is how psychology works isn't it?) then we should go below 400... the chance of this seems slim but cannot be ignored yet.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,863
  • May 23, 2014 12:53pm May 23, 2014 12:53pm
The idea of having a diagonal now is interesting.
If it was a vanilla diagonal, then it's suppose to conclude strongly a correction. Which would make 540 of april 12th "A", 420 on may 3d "B" and this "C". Then we would have so much more downside to come... It's the only "proportionate" idea I can see, it make sens of the sideway as a wave B and of the decline as a wave (A).

This is the best fitting theory, but so very, very, very bearish... That I don't buy it.
Hopefully the coming developement will help us to fit this PA within on of the two other theory we already mentioned
  • #3,864
  • May 23, 2014 2:44pm May 23, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting lady_luck
The idea of having a diagonal now is interesting. If it was a vanilla diagonal, then it's suppose to conclude strongly a correction. Which would make 540 of april 12th "A", 420 on may 3d "B" and this "C". Then we would have so much more downside to come... It's the only "proportionate" idea I can see, it make sens of the sideway as a wave B and of the decline as a wave (A). This is the best fitting theory, but so very, very, very bearish... That I don't buy it. Hopefully the coming developement will help us to fit this PA within on of the two other...
I didn't think about it like that before...

There's a lot going on and I'm questioning my assumptions - trying to figure out why I was so strongly convinced of more downside. One of the main reasons is this:

1) If the decline was a triangle ABCDE, then one would expect the phenomenon whereby the market reverses at the point in time where the triangle's channel TLs converge.

2) Triangle or no triangle, the end of a major correction means we have trend change and degree change. I mean, the smaller subwaves of the new trend should be visible. Instead, in what's going on now (and even at the supposed wave A or I up from 340) is exactly similar and of the same degree as the whole decline... so either my eyes are fooling me or something is not right.

Anyhow, if the advance is starting in this strange way (it's done it like this in previous years, right?) then whatever comes next is going to be helpful to find where in the new trend we are.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,865
  • May 23, 2014 3:11pm May 23, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} so either my eyes are fooling me or something is not right. Anyhow, if the advance is starting in this strange way (it's done it like this in previous years, right?) then whatever comes next is going to be helpful to find where in the new trend we are.
I don't think I've ever seen a sideway consolidation phase happening so close to the lowest point of a correction.
In every previous wave I of new trend the sideway consolidation was almost always happening around fib .61 of the correction.
I agree, something isn't right. I don't have any faith in any of the three potential count i have so far.
  • #3,866
  • Edited May 24, 2014 1:13am May 23, 2014 9:16pm | Edited May 24, 2014 1:13am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: up1.png Size: 47 KB


off-topic: venzen, how is the situation on the ground in bangkok? is there really a curfew at 10pm? is it dangerous to visit? thanks
  • #3,867
  • May 23, 2014 10:39pm May 23, 2014 10:39pm
I just realised the spike in price might have been due to people moving xrp ripples into btc (I imagine many via bitstamp) . Not sure if the volume and timing add up exactly but it might have been enough to trigger it at least.
http://www.coindesk.com/price-ripple...llion-selloff/
Would explain why ltc didn't get a rise, not sure if theres an exchange that does ltc xrp.

But anyway, as we say with other currencies, pa is king and the technicals often breakdown due to some event or anything really! Fingers crossed this is the rally to july highs that was mentioned here before. And come to think about it, if it does get to new high highs in july, it would be a good time for it to start the rally now as its not too far away, its almost june!
  • #3,868
  • Edited 4:47am May 24, 2014 2:15am | Edited 4:47am
Morning all,

I'm reading back over my posts from yesterday and had to laugh at my ambivalence about where price is going next...

Woke up this morning - coffee, yaa baan (home tobacco) and Songs in the Key of Life and the long term log scale chart. I stared at it for an hour, high as a kite but concentrated as iron:

a) BTC advances in 3 waves: ABC.
- Wave C is an upward curving impulse, but sometimes its subwaves display the fractal a-b-c structure too.
- find the lowest point after each correction and count to the next major high: A-B-a-b-C

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bitcoin_alldata_log.png Size: 104 KB


Notice that, at the largest degree BTC has never before had a C wave punch lower than the low made by wave A - we're in uncharted waters here - I trust the Elliott Wave Principle pervades this water.

b) Decline from the November 2013 high is not over - I'm convinced more downside is coming and have a new rational count:
- the most recent advance does not have the signature upward curving C wave - seen in the bigger context this breakout is limp and has no institutional (big money) support - volume is pitiful - it's a fakeout. (it even resembles a young bean stalk without support)

Attached Image


Apologies for the annotations obscuring PA in the last wave in the next chart - i didn't want to erase those yet.

- Much as I dislike the labeling, there is an X wave in the middle of the chart. That zig-zag is distinctive from any other flat abc correction on this chart - marking it that way shows that the recent upward wave from 340 is not an A wave of advance but of decline - however, it needs to form an ABC of similar degree as it's companion "B" in Dec/Jan.

Stamp H4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bitstamp_triangle_24May2014.png Size: 92 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,869
  • May 24, 2014 3:01am May 24, 2014 3:01am
Inserted Video
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,870
  • May 24, 2014 6:46am May 24, 2014 6:46am
Bitstamp Hourly

MACD (bottom) warns of a divergence coming, stochastics are grouped flat down. The weekend market will likely seize the technical opportunity and rally - but lacking wider support, take profit near the recent high. The resulting sellf-off should see price settle at the consolidation zone around 490 -500 which could be the scene of a prolonged B wave before the five wave drop back to where we came from.

(this chart is dedicated to KiwiOz)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bitstamp_H1_top_24May2014.png Size: 69 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,871
  • May 24, 2014 7:30am May 24, 2014 7:30am
Quoting venzen
Bitstamp Hourly MACD (bottom) warns of a divergence coming, stochastics are grouped flat down. The weekend market will likely seize the technical opportunity and rally - but lacking wider support, take profit near the recent high. The resulting sellf-off should see price settle at the consolidation zone around 490 -500 which could be the scene of a prolonged B wave before the five wave drop back to where we came from. (this chart is dedicated to KiwiOz) {image}
Hi venzen just spotted this before I hit the sack... Yes I think you are correct. I believe this whole rally was just a pump n dump. Price will carry on down with the inevitable minor retracements along the way. I see nothing to convince me we will not eventually see the 360 we saw weeks ago. The wave structures to me are still corrective.
Even if assuming the bottom was in at 345, I read this as an ABC wave 2 ending at 360.
If the bottom is not in then of course 230 would be my preference at the moment.
Meanwhile, one step at a time. We should see a good bounce at around 485. That for me will be the telling point. A bounce followed by a drop below 480 will be decisive. Failure to drop below 480 will change the whole outlook.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,872
  • May 24, 2014 7:33am May 24, 2014 7:33am
We are right on the 1500 Mt4 time witching hour, so if price is to turn up to attack the Daily pivot at 522 it will have to start in that direction within the hour.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,873
  • May 24, 2014 7:36am May 24, 2014 7:36am
,,,,,,,,,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 35 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,874
  • May 24, 2014 7:46am May 24, 2014 7:46am
Quoting KiwiOz
We are right on the 1500 Mt4 time witching hour, so if price is to turn up to attack the Daily pivot at 522 it will have to start in that direction within the hour.
Good call, it's turned...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,875
  • May 24, 2014 7:51am May 24, 2014 7:51am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen just spotted this before I hit the sack... Yes I think you are correct. I believe this whole rally was just a pump n dump. Price will carry on down with the inevitable minor retracements along the way. I see nothing to convince me we will not eventually see the 360 we saw weeks ago. The wave structures to me are still corrective. Even if assuming the bottom was in at 345, I read this as an ABC wave 2 ending at 360. If the bottom is not in then of course 230 would be my preference at the moment. Meanwhile, one step at a time. We...
Sure, KO.

I agree about 480. The market is either going to take the HnS bait or forego it in favor of more upside. Seeing that this upmove happened without big money piling in, i suspect the attraction of an obvious $60 short opportunity is going to prove irresistable.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,876
  • May 24, 2014 10:13am May 24, 2014 10:13am
it is normal wave 4 PA and has a long way to go bros; relax and enjoy the never ending move... you both sound like you're talking about ripple
  • #3,877
  • May 24, 2014 5:23pm May 24, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting emptymind
it is normal wave 4 PA and has a long way to go bros; relax and enjoy the never ending move... you both sound like you're talking about ripple
Hi emptymind. Do you mean like this.? If so I think you may be right..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 43 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,878
  • Edited 9:17pm May 24, 2014 8:43pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi emptymind. Do you mean like this.? If so I think you may be right.. {image}
Hello KiwiOz, looks good bro! any targets north of here is good in my book

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: up1.png Size: 36 KB

daily bitstamp
  • #3,879
  • May 24, 2014 11:49pm May 24, 2014 11:49pm
Ha! Ha! Ha! I laugh in the face of bullish advance!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,880
  • May 24, 2014 11:58pm May 24, 2014 11:58pm
Boo! Hoo! Hoo!
cryptocurrency everytime
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