Bitcoin technical analysis

this is my count for BTC China



estimate 80K CNY

i marked the "base" and "phase transition" areas on the chart.... we built a 5 month base and i belive we are in the early stages of a phase transition

I like your analysis, emptymind. Price does seem to be entering a consolidative (base building) phase. From here on I think anything can happen...

The same chart as before - I've only adjusted the pink triangles to have their lower apexes on the descending TL.

So by this, price doesn't have much time left in the pink triangle. To my eyes it's already behaving differently than it did during previous declining phases. However, one shock drop to the downside can wipe out a lot of long stops, reverse quickly and take out short stops between 450 and 500. Some magnetic line targets (courtesy of KiwiOz) are shown.

Otherwise, In the absence of higher highs or lower lows, Bitcoin must be in a consolidation ("base building" courtesy of emptymind) phase prior to the next rally. The apexes of various TLs start happening from the 16th to the 20th of May, so during that time window PA must choose a direction. At least one of those powerful apexes should cause reaction and force price up or down.

If price keeps winding sideways it's going to naturally drift through the upper downtrend TL - or an upward wave of only $20 length can breach the TL at any moment. However it's achieved, a breach of this TL will be a "clear the runway" alarm.

For now, before we start looking to the skies too long, the momentum indicators imply that a move down is on the cards. At the top the stochastics are grouped in the overbought area, at the bottom MACD is touching it's upper Bollinger band.

thank you venzen; just a small clarification. i believe we are exiting the base and moving into a phase transition. the base was the range between 1163 and 339 and everything in between. that was the base building process of about 5 months.......... the market is exiting that base and entering a phase transition. this is my interpretation.

Time to break out ...... I would bet long.

nice work kingtour. market is unusually trading all the way to the apex which is strange!

i was connecting wave 1 and wave 3 of the same degree to draw the upper channel line and i was surprised it intersect exactly at the 10,000 USD level with the vertical line we calculated as the cycle high (end of july).... strange!

Is 10000USD one of the calculated target?

i have to check it; can't remember off the top of my head. i also need to calculate wave 5 using another method..

check this pattern... looks like a butterfly pattern, yes? the CD need to be longer. and B need to be less deep.. close enough !

Sorry folks, No breakout....Just another simple ABC retracement.,.

i don't know where that page is! ok... lets just calculate a target for wave 5/III for bitstamp

(wave 0 is the beginning of wave 1)
wave 0 = 45
wave 3 = 1163
wave 4 = 339.79
wave 5 = ?

i think wave 5 will be powerful and extended so it should be 100% of waves 0-3 which is the usual for a strong wave 5... lets calculate

ln(1163)-ln(45)*1+ln(339.79) = 8,781.68 USD
i use my windows calculator... after i do the calc i click on inv then e^x

Seems the worst is still to come for this wave down.

There are so many ways to count this, but the effort below is my best shot. There are some issues with it because from wave ii to wave iii is a straight textbook impulse with no ABC like the other waves in that degree. I actually found a simpler count after I spent an hour labeling this - but it amounts to the same thing: more downside. If wave action capitulates then I'll update the count.

Same as ever, if price breaks out above the descending TL then a trend reversal must be in place and the count is invalidated. However, I seriously doubt this outcome: all the power is in the down moves, look how similar the current sideways is to the previous (purple shaded rectangle) sideways pattern. Except only that this retracement is a squashed version of its former self and it looks completely depleted of energy - shagged out!

My vague pattern-based analysis backs up KiwiOz's clear structured magnetic line targets lower down. Of course, we always allow for unforeseen outcomes (such as a strong move up from here), but the weight of analysis points down - despite the longterm trendline obstacle just below. If this happens to be a wave 1 up, then price must come down to around 440 later in wave 2 and this will clarify our options more. Doubt this is a wave 1 though, its just too similar to previous corrective waves.

So if we go below that longterm TL (now near 390) then the market is going to be in for a shock, because according to the chatboxes, everyone has turned long. Those stops being triggered will most likely cause a spike down, so I'm placing buy orders all the way down to 100.

A powerful catalyst is brewing up in the form of Chinese authorities' opposition to the Beijing Bitcoin Conference on the 12th and attempts to curb the media's reporting about Bitcoin. I think this could spark a rally, but first the Bitcoin community (including market participants) must crap its collective pants
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/...mit/2014/05/09

BTC-e Hourly

Stormy weather and heavy rain - expect thunder and lightning.

i know many of you are hoping for a dramatic drop but that will not happen because we are running out of time. the market needs 10 weeks to perform a phase transition. there is no TIME remaining! if i were you, i would cut my losses NOW before it's too late!

time left until cycle high:

1752 hours

73 days

10 weeks

Good morning everyone

I'm sorry to be a bit blunt, but I don't understand the why of this July date.
Whatever count there is, the part being measured for that projection are never of the same degree. So how can they be equal in time ?
One thing we've all seen since november, is how brief and sharpwave 2 are. While wave 4 and B of all sort are always shallow and slow.

Other thing, Emptmind, I don't know if you can zoom on the april chart ?
Back then my eyes where already glued to the screen every days. I can say for certain, the PA from May to august wasn't an advance wave 1/2.
And despite a pretty neat triangle, that correction was a technical nightmare. I really believe there should have been an overlap that we didn't have.
This would drastically change any long term count we might try.

Somehow my intuition tells me, next spike won't be a spike. But a succession of 1 to 3 smaller move up followed every-time by a few month of correction.

Venzen, this endless repetition of smaller and smaller abc pattern are intriguing. It's getting hardly profitable to trade. I have a bad feeling about this.

Hi.

some stuffs and share for the week-end.

some free signals on cryptocurrencies and fx by my twitter feed : https://twitter.com/fxmgm

My view on BTC (H4 based) 1st graph and another view (H1 Based) 2nd graph :

good morning LL, the cycle peaks are the "heart beat" of bitcoin. it is constant like any other market. the dow has a 4 year heart beat or cycle i believe and many other markets have their own unique cycle signature. yes degrees can change but the cycle is constant and linear. regarding 1/2; that's the best fit i found for 1/2... i have of course looked at it closely and that is my best ew fit for that period. i think the spikes will remain until completion of wave III/5, after that bitcoin will move sideways for wave IV and will be better environment for traders.... just look at the historical dow chart, a lot of similarities exist. at the time when dow was 1000 nobody believed it could go to 10K (wave 3) but it did! bitcoin just following the psychology of the masses at a more accelerated pace than traditional markets

I share this perspective with you. And I hope it is right.
Because two of my alternative ideas are very ugly...

Hello dswk, great charts, I think we are a few around here sharing those targets, good luck

Hi everybody,

lady_luck, missed you here the past few days. No problem about that - there isn't much going on and sometimes its necessary to step away and do other things while the market wastes time.

This PA is really frustrating, but what else can we expect - it's running itself into a corner and there is no one to hold the market's hand and say: "go this way, it's ok"

emptymind, i've read each your posts, don't worry if i don't respond - i'm kind of concentrated on other tasks and thinking and talking about the market these past few days is just such a drag for me... it'll change i'm sure!

OK, bedtime over here. Have a nice Saturday evening all.

PS. dswk, thanks for sharing the charts - let's see which way this marlon takes - jump or dive?

Thanks Venzen, sometime it's hard to keep fresh eyes.

Truth is, I have difficulties finding a clear picture.
I have now fully eliminated this as an advance. It doesn't look right for a wave 1/2, and definitely not the early stages of a 3.
So downtrend still ?
Now flirting with moving average that were last touch in 2011.
This is now the longest consistent down move in BTC history. So the more reason to go up ?
Or...

On the list of strange perspective going on in my heads, all one label away from each other, ranges :
Seeing a wave B to the 800 and back down to very very low, may be even 15-20.
Having a weak wave 5 to 1600 and some more correction.
Or this 410-460 ping-pong setting us up for more slow and lengthy move to the 100 area.

Off course their is also the sharp move up shown by Emptymind.
And the sharp move down that you and KO have in mind.

Meanwhile playing in this paper towel, I'm trying to revise my notions of sharp, patience, certitude and expectations. And not be deceive if none of the most expected outcome were to happen.

there is 5 months of stored energy in compressing this triangle "spring". it will be released!



i noticed there is alternation in successive phase transitions small>large>small>large?