Flying Dutchman

1.47000 - Level
It fascinates me because I notice a lot of time how prices hit a level, rise and fall in an arc to hit the same level again and off you go ( but you missed it as you said)
Levels and returning price
Great charts W.

Yeah, it didn't come back for a retest on the 5min chart but had a good entry on 1m.

DOL = DAILY OPEN LINE
WOL = WEEKLY OPEN LINE
MOL = MONTHLY OPEN LINE

PDOL, PWOL, PMOL = PREVIOUS DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY OPEN LINES

PFH = PEAK FORMATION HIGH
PFL - PEAK FORMATION LOW

BRN = BIG ROUND NUMBERS

FVG = FAIR VALUE GAP

These are most of the basic ones on this thread. It just saves time typing it all out I suppose.

Daily Targets are drawn from Fib Expansions, my interpretation is they are drawn from previous daily highs & lows. 127% being the most commonly favoured.
Although some previous target levels are used for confluences.

If you live in the US/Canada, you're forced to trade intraday reversals in a volatile red news market. The best would be to live in Asia/Australia/Europe timezone, you get to trade the London open session with the bulk of the market move. So where you live can determine somewhat your trading strategy.

Good Trade there. I was also looking at that pair but was trying to look for a reversal after that fast move at London Open. I mostly place trades after the 1st hour of London and this one just took off. I was waiting for price to set a session low. Asia low was broken but by the time it broke the RN it was well outside my 3 hours trading zone so i just stayed out. US open quickly broke the London Low and at US Equity open price came back for a pullback. I stayed awake till that time to take notes. I was sure that it will go to the target but there was something missing for me to place the trade and that was no RN broken or rejected. Notes on the chart. Price did go upwards but was again after the 3 hours of US open. We can't always have it our way..lol. I know that after US open there was a pullback to enter the buy trade but i just didn't want to break my RN rule. Lots to learn. Your trade was very good cos profit was taken so fast.

Trade well

The one trade i placed yesterday. GBP/CAD. Was a good setup as per what i have learnt from experienced traders here. Try to trade from outside. There were lots of confluences. TP hit before the NY open.

Hi whitesta, good trade. Price took out George target sep13, then market did not want to value below wol. There's the gap fill if traders believe in it. Cheers

Hi whitesta, I wrote about correlation in post#3358. The better choices to short yen cross in London session are GY and EY. There won't be reversal this time because the usual reversal you're looking for is at London open m5. Check the charts.

After such a big drop in London session with adr done, picking the right pair to fade for 50pips in NY session is difficult. Like I wrote in 1st para post#3352, the go to pair is sterling for the distance. I took the cue from EY which took out pdl.
.
Trade simple, logical strategy that make sense using time as the most important variable, with reasonable explanation why price move up or down.

Use other tools like indicators, candlestick, price action, patterns, level2 volume data, order flow, whatever for trade entry purpose only. These tools can't explain for value intent.

Avoid, discard ob/os indicator, candlestick, pa and pattern trading strategy mindset that was given to us. Cheers

***my buddy explains value intent here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14141084

Yeah the GBP/JPY just went down so fast at London Open. I normally wait for an hour or so after markets open. You are right, there was rejection of 1.64 RN at London Open. Pins as well. Even though i don't trade that early at London market i didn't see that RN and rejection. Blindness as u say. I did look at the ADR and that was another reason i didn't put the reversal trade. Yes Timing and RNs are the first 2 things i look at. I do miss trades but i look at just few pairs and i am improving day by day. Still a long way to go. I have few things that i look for that are logical and helps me alot. No indicators for now..lol

Hi whitesta, trading in 2022 is like flying the F35 lightning with all the advanced sensory suite. Fighter pilots earn their top gun wings at Pasadena. It takes time to acquire the knowledge and skill to take in all that fly by wire technology as one parcel, turn all that advanced technology into a killing machine. Good thing is you're on the right path, one small step at a time. Cheers

Tools are built for a purpose. Tools in the hands of the expert is amazing. Learn your tools and handle them with love and dedication that allow us to express ourself.

Enjoy the music. Have a great weekend. Cheers

Why to trade both the weak currencies rather Weak vs Strong?

no doubt if one is learning Price action on GJ i.e., Military training

I have to explain this weak mindset and weak psychology again to give clarity. (Repeating myself)

Weak mindset and weak psychology is a fear symptom. This fear symptom comes from a real cause, that is blindness. You're a blind man in this market, that's why you wrote no one(meaning you) knows the future. You wrote trading Forex is a statistical game in randomness(that's true for you). All that expression of truth to you is correct for you, no contradiction. Except one,

Why do you trade a market you see as random?

Random means future event is independent of past event.

Why do you analyse the history chart to forecast the future when you declare, no one knows the future ?

The contradiction is glaringly obvious.

Why do traders readily accept such clear contradiction?

Because they are victims of weak mindset and weak psychology. Psychologists, who are not traders, exploit this weakness to sell their seminars and books. Losers keep paying, and pay more to psychologists who told you nice stories that soothe your pain. The loser mob(in numbers) feels better, this nice man(psychologists exploit market randomness) "opened our eyes, bless him". That's what has happened.

1. Market is random.

2. I am blind.

Chose one. This reality is true for YOU.
(Never mind other people that has zero relevance to YOU.)

Simple logic tells us that to solve this weak mindset and weak psychology is to understand it's fear. This fear is caused by blindness.

Yes, the problem is with the trader, not the market. But the real problem is blindness. I'm sure you know that.

BUT the ego doesn't allow you to accept you're blind. After more than 10,000 hours chart staring, more than a decade of experience under your belt you are still blind. No one can accept that. No way.

Who's talking?

Mr Ego.
The damage that Mr Ego caused YOU is far worse than Mr fear and all the scammers put together.

To solve blindness you have to get past Mr Ego first. It's impossible for most traders. That's the reality, brutal truth to the core. Not difficult for adults to understand. Impossible for adults to acknowledge. This is one area in life that the child beat the adult hands down.

The simplest analogy to understand blindness and weak mindset, weak psychology,

If you know today tomorrows lotto result it takes a child to go round town to buy every ticket available. There's no need for strong mindset, strong psychology, it was not relevant in the first place.

Having said that there's degrees of knowing, that makes it relevant. Cheers.

***Don't accept this rubbish post by this arsehole BWilliam. Think through this with your adult brain, if you still have one.

Pics borrowed from this thread.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14141198

Some good points made here.

No worries W, it was a quick one for sure. Ended up with 32 so happy with it. Only 1 trade for the day, not giving back profits on a Friday. Quick pips vs large pips is a balance one must strike. I like AJ and AU because I get more leverage than GJ, GU give me, they have good moves but won't destroy you as violently if wrong like EJ and GJ can.

Your points on not taking the reversal were valid, it ranged then lacked a large pullback. GJ was better for the reversal opportunity. Trading the 1st hour of London is not always good but if Frankfurt first hour is ranging then the probability of a move is higher. The trade taken was with the trend.

Cheers...

What is probability mindset to the forex trader?

If you flip a coin we don't know if THIS flip is head or tail. It's 50:50 over a large sample size, we all know that with variance thrown in.

What we got to remember is since the probability is 50:50, there's a large streak of negative variance. The outlier can be so large, either it burn your account or it breaks your weak mindset, whichever comes first.

ALL of us don't accept 50:50 probability.
So we do technical analysis to try improve our probability.

There's one assumption once we get into probability thinking.

We assume this forex market is not random.
We can't say market is random and think in probability at the same time. That's contradiction.

Now, lets say our technical analysis tells us there's 60% probability of success from our research,

my questions is,

do you know what's the mean and maximum streak of failure?

Why is this important?

Because we have this natural expectation about success when we trade.

The important question to ask is whether this mean, max streak of failure fall inside your natural expectation about success. This gives us our satisfaction quotient.
Is there a gap between your trading strategy and your trading expectation?

This type of trading approach is statistical in nature. You trade statistically over a large number of trades.
Are you sure you trade statistically, that's what you want from your trading?

Most of us(95%) don't think like that.
There're reasons why not(I won't get into this).

Probability thinking to us mean this current trade, what's the probability of success for this trade?

If it's 50:50, meaning coin flip random, does it make sense to take this trade?
Does it sound logical to say our "this" trade has 50:50 probability of success?

I'm sure you know a large sample size of 50:50 probability trades, return a 50:50 statistical count in the long run.

There's no running away from the probability of this current trade that makes up the statistics of the large sample size. Ofc there's variance, we know that.

60% probability trades return a approx. 60% large sample size trading statistics.
90% probability trades return a approx. 90% large sample size trading statistics.
(Law of large numbers.)

What probability % threshold for "this" trade that trigger you to click the trade button?

That's why the probability of this current trade is all important to us - which is correct, that's why we spend so much effort chart staring every minute of every day. To find the probability of this one particular moment in time or this one particular price level together with this price action, or candle pattern and a host of whatever confluences that tilt the probability in this one direction that made us push the trade button. What really tilt is our real time mindset, our psychology. (That's deeply indoctrinated with ob/os). Has the probability shifted ? No, in most cases.

This special moment when we click the trade button is when our blindness is the lowest, we're convinced the probability right now is in our favour.

That's why I wrote, write down your real time analysis how you feel in a journal, review it later the reasons why you were convinced this is the special moment. That's how we learn about ourself. This is the special moment(no matter right or wrong) how we think and feel is the greatest lesson opportunity about probability mindset for a trader.

To overcome real time blindness you have to learn from how you think and feel in real time, realise and understand your faults(what you relied on that were wrong) about real time probability count, then design at this deepest core your tunnel vision solution. Cheers

***Don't accept this rubbish post by this arsehole BWilliam. Think through this with your adult brain, if you still have one.

On the Money manaement side of trading, just posting some interesting graphics by Hanover , probability of successive losing trades vs win rate %
There is a calculator for this, variable is number of trade period, this is for 50 trades period :


By Chris Capre, Risk of Ruin, (or losing all your capital), based on a fixed risk percentage per trade, comparing win ratio % to Risk Reward targets.
The results will be vastly different if we do not keep a fixed risk percentage per trade. :


Max Drawdown calculator by Flyer415 (FF) demonstrates the relationship of percentage risk / win rate % / losses in a row :



Risk of Ruin Calculator Ralph Vince Formula, relationship of average $ wins / average $ losses / win rate % / capital risked.
The number in the yellow box to the far right, is the important value. Try to keep that figure below 1% but will vary according to the traders risk appetite.

What's impossible place an imaginary ceiling boundary in our mind. Most people naturally accept these boundaries, live life's inside this boundaries. This our comfort zone, going near this boundaries is risky. It make no sense to go near that zone - be wise.

Boundaries keep expanding is what must happen and has happened. Boundary means opportunity, not threat. Impossible is opportunity for us today. It takes 2 kinds of people to venture into this impossible zone, the fool and the maverick. To be maverick you have to put on the dunce cap, take the L.

Be smart, be first or cheat. Most people don't cheat, we're decent people.

We're told by our parents, elders and teachers be smart to get ahead. Be wise.

In the old days, few think to be first. In this generation, people start to realise to aim to be first. Be first means to look at opportunities beyond this imaginary impossible boundary. Be impatient. Cheers.

London open Indice Scalping:

Today the open was very clean.

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