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  • #3,381
  • Sep 19, 2022 3:41am Sep 19, 2022 3:41am
All action will be in the NY session since London market is closed today.
  • #3,382
  • Sep 19, 2022 6:27am Sep 19, 2022 6:27am
Quoting whitesta
All action will be in the NY session since London market is closed today.
Aud moved earlier today Sydney time with Yen banks closed too.
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  • #3,383
  • Sep 19, 2022 4:56pm Sep 19, 2022 4:56pm
Quoting bluesteele
Just reading the charts.. TIME PRICE .. Lines momentum... Micro double tops bottoms etc... And of course the most important ingredient for successful trading.... MINDSET ! I traded this live along Tom in his Telegram.. all time-stamped all real. No volume or delta needed to make a decent living...only a chart...but first you have to learn how to read it...not many know how to do that let alone control your mindset... https://youtu.be/RUjk6patAgs
Tom - Amazing guy
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,384
  • Edited 6:18pm Sep 19, 2022 5:49pm | Edited 6:18pm
Trading from outside..Thanks to Bluesteele. A little late entry as London Market was closed yesterday. Another similar trade was on offer at US Equity open but was a bit late for me. Its there but we just don't see em when live trading. I have missed lots of trade and have decided to just follow 2 or 3 pairs. Price will fluctuate a lot when setting lows & highs to confuse traders. Thats where timing comes in to play. As humans we try and force trades when we see things the next day in hindsight where it looks so easy. We will always miss trades no matter what. Frustration creeps in when we see setups in different times. They have to be there so Algos or whatever can force traders to jump in and then price reverses. TWO things are SET IN STONE, TIME & RNs. Use them to ur advantage. Experienced and fulltime traders here have shared more than enough. Take that info and make ur own strategy. There is no one way to trade. Its all about making money and being on the positive side each month. For me after few years i see a bit of light at the end of tunnel. Nothing special and its a bloody long tunnel. I am not trading fulltime, miles away from that. Sometimes i don't place any trade for a day or two and come back to see the next day that there were awesome setups which i didn't see it live. I do get frustrated but thats all part of trading. I have seen a few traders here who follow one pair and trade it so successfully. They know every pulse of a certain pair. Long road but i have had the help from traders here who even make time to reply to personal messages when i have questions. There are Gurus out there who charge insane money to show things on previous months charts. This thread is packed with golden nuggets. Read through and make notes. Trade Well All.
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  • #3,385
  • Sep 19, 2022 10:48pm Sep 19, 2022 10:48pm
Quoting whitesta
Hi All, Lots of nice posts which i am sure is helping new or inexperienced traders here. Quite a number of traders here would like to trade on a part time basis due to work commitments so they may like to understand trading on 4hr or Daily timeframes. Just like most i did not understand some details regarding over value and under value of currencies or value intent. In basic terms as they say buy above DOL and sell under it. Same maybe for WOL and MOL for higher timeframes. The other issue is that the stop loss will be bigger for higher...
I have to scroll back to find this post, about part time traders who hold jobs, or retirees trade few hours a day.

Some people say scalp for say 2-3hours after work.

Some people say trade higher time frames, h4/D/W.

Hard question(after so many years following Gurus),

why this part-time trading didn't work out for you?

What went wrong? Give up?

This is a good topic to discuss that can be helpful to many members under part-time category. Only with honest, open discussion, telling truthfully real problems may we get the chance to see the real problem and hopefully collectively get ideas for solution. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,386
  • Sep 19, 2022 11:34pm Sep 19, 2022 11:34pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I have to scroll back to find this post, about part time traders who hold jobs, or retirees trade few hours a day. Some people say scalp for say 2-3hours after work. Some people say trade higher time frames, h4/D/W. Hard question(after so many years following Gurus), why this part-time trading didn't work out for you? What went wrong? Give up? This is a good topic to discuss that can be helpful to many members under part-time category. Only with honest, open discussion, telling truthfully real problems may we get the chance to see the real...
For me i am still not able to understand if a currency pair is overvalued or undervalued. I would love to trade 4 hr time frame cos that gives a little less stress and we can set profit targets, stoploss and not stay at the computer for too long. Have read comments from most traders here and at the moment i am a bit better with 5 minutes and 15 minutes chart trading. Somehow i understood a bit better with those timeframes. Would still go for 4 hr time frame if i understood how to actually trade them as the stops need to be larger. Just my input.
  • #3,387
  • Sep 20, 2022 3:49am Sep 20, 2022 3:49am
Quoting whitesta
{quote} For me i am still not able to understand if a currency pair is overvalued or undervalued. I would love to trade 4 hr time frame cos that gives a little less stress and we can set profit targets, stoploss and not stay at the computer for too long. Have read comments from most traders here and at the moment i am a bit better with 5 minutes and 15 minutes chart trading. Somehow i understood a bit better with those timeframes. Would still go for 4 hr time frame if i understood how to actually trade them as the stops need to be larger. Just my...
Hi, interesting discussion. I just want to share my point of view, not because I pretend to have right answer but because I think it would be good for you seeing other point of views.

First of all I don't think a currency get overvalued or undervalued, price is what we have and thus price is the reflection of the general perception about the instrument... It's a sort of "weighted balance" of different perceptions about it. I think it would be better to think in terms of equilibrium or balance... you see sometimes perceptions goes wild between humans, see crypto bull run or every major bubble, we can say on those times that prices rapidly goes away from it's equilibrium/balance, in fact every trading strategy is based either on taking advantage of the "run" that price do when going away from equilibrium (trend following strategies, breakout strategies) or taking advantage of when price comes back to equilibrium (range trading strategies, fake-out/swing strategies).

Hope this may help, I would also like if some more experienced trader may point out if there's something wrong or any fallacy on my vision.
  • #3,388
  • Sep 20, 2022 5:31am Sep 20, 2022 5:31am
This Dax chart is certified hindsight....but....is my analysis reasonably accurate if viewed in Stacey Burke set ups? PFH and PFL's etc ?
Have I missed something in my analysis?
Comment and criticism would be very much appreciated please, since I am hoping to learn from experienced Stacey type traders and the set ups here.
Thankyou.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,389
  • Sep 20, 2022 5:37am Sep 20, 2022 5:37am
Quoting turnip15
This Dax chart is certified hindsight....but....is my analysis reasonably accurate if viewed in Stacey Burke set ups? PFH and PFL's etc ? Have I missed something in my analysis? Comment and criticism would be very much appreciated please, since I am hoping to learn from experienced Stacey type traders and the set ups here. Thankyou. {image}
Action does like to happen around the Equity opens doesn't it ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,390
  • Sep 20, 2022 5:50am Sep 20, 2022 5:50am
Is there any indicator that plots the previous day's High/Low on the current day for a specified number of days? Many thanks in advance.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #3,391
  • Sep 20, 2022 5:51am Sep 20, 2022 5:51am
Quoting TDT.Coffee
London open Indice Scalping: Today the open was very clean. {image}{image}{image}{image}
Your last chart....what level is the grey horizontal line at please?
The short from below that line - was it triggered by the pin bouncing off the underside of that grey line (level) ?
Great charts.
Thanks.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,392
  • Sep 20, 2022 6:22am Sep 20, 2022 6:22am
@Bluesteele

I thought I had marked in PFH for a pump and dump but I am not sure it is correct now. The top far left level showing $$$ ( The money) may have been the correct level but not yet breached.
Am I correct please ?
(There are possibly other Stacey type set ups on my chart but not sure)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,393
  • Sep 20, 2022 7:30am Sep 20, 2022 7:30am
Quoting apprendista
{quote} Hi, interesting discussion. I just want to share my point of view, not because I pretend to have right answer but because I think it would be good for you seeing other point of views. First of all I don't think a currency get overvalued or undervalued, price is what we have and thus price is the reflection of the general perception about the instrument... It's a sort of "weighted balance" of different perceptions about it. I think it would be better to think in terms of equilibrium or balance... you see sometimes perceptions goes wild between...
My current research led me into this direction, market is impulsing (imbalance) and correcting (balance).

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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #3,394
  • Edited 5:46pm Sep 20, 2022 5:30pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting apprendista
{quote} Hi, interesting discussion. I just want to share my point of view, not because I pretend to have right answer but because I think it would be good for you seeing other point of views. First of all I don't think a currency get overvalued or undervalued, price is what we have and thus price is the reflection of the general perception about the instrument... It's a sort of "weighted balance" of different perceptions about it. I think it would be better to think in terms of equilibrium or balance... you see sometimes perceptions goes wild between...
You are correct in your view. Value is the motivating force behind all transactions. To facilitate trade in order to distribute goods and services, the market moves from imbalance to balance to imbalance and back again. This is the basic behavior pattern of the market. Whether a market is balanced-or whether it is imbalanced depends on market participants' perception of value.

A few points of clarification I would make in regards to your view are these:

- What is value exactly? Value is a fair price. Fair price is the market's perception of value or the market's idea of value. Value is the market's idea of a fair price in other words value is what the market considers to be a fair price on the chart. When this fair price is found the market forms rotations(range) around the price which is a balance.

- When the perception of value(a fair price) changes and traders perceive or interpret value as higher or lower, the market as you said "runs away" from equilibrium however, the key distinction is the reason why price is moving(or running as you say) is not to get away from equilibrium but rather to search for a new fair price to form rotations around and form a NEW EQUILIBRIUM(new balance). The market always wants a fair price(balance/equilibrium). The market moves directionally(forms an imbalance or trend) because it is in search of a fair price(balance).

In brief, a balanced market has found a fair price. An imbalanced market is seeking a fair price(to form a balance). This is simply another way to state the familiar law of supply and demand. Buyers demand and sellers supply. The market is either in equilibrium between buyers and sellers or it is working toward that equilibrium.

- Last point is that there are many different perceptions of value. Short-term and long-term traders have different ideas of value. Therefore, value is not necessarily the same in all time frames. That's why the market can be trending down in the long-term, trading sideways in the intermediate-term, and moving up in the near-term. Stated another way, value is moving down in a long-term time frame, sideways in an intermediate-term time frame, and up in a near-term time frame. So how can you know which perception of value you should follow to take accurate trades?

The answer is 2 fold.

1. Relate the perception of value(fair price) that you follow to the interpretations of market developments(price moves) of a longer time frame that formed that perception of value

2. Who's perception of value are you following. I follow the perception of value of the US session because it is composed of the 2 largest trading centers in the world(London and New York) and they are the last perception of value of the day which can set the tone for the new day so I want to follow US session market participants' perception of value. However following perceptions of value of other sessions(london, asian, day session week session etc) can still yield good results as long as you relate the perception of value(fair price) that you follow to the interpretations of market developments(price moves) of a longer time frame that formed that perception of value.
  • #3,395
  • Sep 20, 2022 6:40pm Sep 20, 2022 6:40pm
GBP/USD had two good setups. First one was missed. Second one was pre US open setup. Price just had to take out the herd zone where the $$$$$ was. I missed other setups. Might just have to watch 2 pairs only lol. RNs and Time is of most importance.
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  • #3,396
  • Edited 8:25pm Sep 20, 2022 7:19pm | Edited 8:25pm
Quoting sharingan9
So how can you know which perception of value you should follow to take accurate trades? The answer is 2 fold. 1. Relate the perception of value(fair price) that you follow to the interpretations of market developments(price moves) of a longer time frame that formed that perception of value 2. Who's perception of value are you following. I follow the perception of value of the US session because it is composed of the 2 largest trading centers in the world(London and New York) and they are the last perception of value of the day which...
Nice explanation buddy. For readers benefit, read together with this post.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14141084

That's why traders need to understand and "see" value of the asset shown on the price chart. That's all traders should be interested in.

Which brings us to the question,

What do you use to measure/identify value of the asset?

Answer - indicators, price action, candlestick, candle patterns, support/resistance, volume, orderflow and all of technical analysis that don't relate to value of the asset. That's how disconnected traditional technical analysis is which is centered on ob/os whatever that means.

Imagine a pinbar or "w/m pattern" or volume delta flip to explain for a 50pips or more value move, it's simply illogical. Lining up past high lows with no idea the value intent, that's why ryuryu mock line traders and he's right.

This is the true meaning of blindness - no idea about value and value intent. Hards truths are insulting even when the message is delivered politely.

We don't predict price, we don't forecast price.
There's nothing to predict in the first place.

We know value areas, we know value intent. That's why this value knowledge when posted on FF comes off as prediction which is not. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,397
  • Sep 20, 2022 7:26pm Sep 20, 2022 7:26pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} You are correct in your view. Value is the motivating force behind all transactions. To facilitate trade in order to distribute goods and services, the market moves from imbalance to balance to imbalance and back again. This is the basic behavior pattern of the market. Whether a market is balanced-or whether it is imbalanced depends on market participants' perception of value. A few points of clarification I would make in regards to your view are these: - What is value exactly? Value is a fair price. Fair price is the market's perception...
Thank you Bwilliam for inviting your friend and thanks also to you for honoring the invitation. I think the range you're talking about is what another trader on here calls inflection zone. My question(s) is/are how many bars do you consider as range. Can we trade by fading today's range the next day and how do we determine over/undervaluation from the range i.e how many pips above/below the range do you consider as over/undervaluation.
Sharing a chart will help in understanding your thoughts
  • #3,398
  • Sep 20, 2022 7:34pm Sep 20, 2022 7:34pm
Quoting angelofx
Thank you Bwilliam for inviting your friend and thanks also to you for honoring the invitation. I think the range you're talking about is what another trader on here calls inflection zone. My question(s) is/are how many bars do you consider as range. Can we trade by fading today's range the next day and how do we determine over/undervaluation from the range i.e how many pips above/below the range do you consider as over/undervaluation. Sharing a chart will help in understanding your thoughts
Hi angelofx, I met sharingan a decade ago. I've not talked to him about value, we happen to think the same. And I did not invite him. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #3,399
  • Sep 20, 2022 7:38pm Sep 20, 2022 7:38pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Nice explanation buddy. For readers benefit, read together with this post. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14141084 That's why traders need to understand and "see" value of the asset shown on the price chart. Which brings us to the question, What do you use to measure value of the asset? Answer - indicators, price action, candlestick, candle patterns, support/resistance, volume, and all of technical analysis that don't relate to value of the asset. That's how disconnected traditional technical analysis...
I think Sharingan uses fundamental analysis, like tomorrow's interest rate decision while i think you use price in relation to DOL, WOL and MOL.
How you determine direction, intent and valuation is beyond me.
Question Bwilliams, 'demarcation' and buy/sell hemisphere are they the same? is demarcation same as support becomes resistance and vice versa?
  • #3,400
  • Sep 20, 2022 7:43pm Sep 20, 2022 7:43pm
The explanations are good but i am pretty sure most will not be able to understand and use them in their day to day trading. It would be good if those who understand the value intent, over value, undervalue etc to share a chart or two with notes on them explaining what they see and how they go about using them. We have been on this topic for awhile but not much as per actual charts. I shared a few charts with whatever i have learnt in this thread and it may or may not have helped others but atleast it was clear for all to see. I personally feel that all these explanations are just going nowhere without showing it on actual charts cos majority of us use charts to trade and the more visual the better. This is not aimed at anyone but these explanations are just a drag. Anyone who gets it please post charts with notes, explanations so we get some benefit out of it.
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bluesteele