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Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

  • #261
  • Dec 1, 2021 5:49am Dec 1, 2021 5:49am
Quoting kk100
{quote} I am thinking your chart is XAU, just wondering why you didnt took the earlier near 11.00 when it hit your ema ? there were delta not huge, but volume was there ?
Yes you right it is XAU.

I need to have several signal confirm each other.
1. Moving average order. What that mean? If 50/100/200 are in correct order, if the distance between them is good, if it was cross before -> ok
2. Stochastic. It is filtered by MA order and MA distance. Why? Because Stoch is gravity.
3. Signal itself. It is simple Now is Higher/Lower than X candles back. But filtered by MA order, ma distance, distance from daily open and even higher TF direction.
4. Volume. It must be good.
5. Delta. It must change and be good too.
6. Candle size must be big.

So earlier there was pretty good situation, but there were to "arrow", if there are no arrow the risk of reverse is too big.


UPD Long XAU +1.39%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 42 KB

As example, this is the sequence. It was closed too early because the price was near 8 EMA high on 1H tf (it was risky), so it was closed using DTP (dynamic take profit). It use ADR to track the order.
Observer effect
  • #262
  • Dec 1, 2021 6:02am Dec 1, 2021 6:02am
This is another example:

Long GU +2.75%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 23 KB


As you see I missed the entry. So the example is not good. But using my stats you can enter or add the position 2-3 times. More than 3 is not good because there will be swing in most cases.

If we are talking about delta/volume trading only. Today were no such a trades yet. In most cases they occur after NY open when volume comes.
Observer effect
  • #263
  • Dec 1, 2021 6:56am Dec 1, 2021 6:56am
I dont like oscies because for my style they don't add anything.
MA's are different case, i use one unorthodox way and now can see i could use it for bounce, help with delta and volume.

About delta/volume and footprint i could take this kind of entries without hesitation, just looking same time where price
is generally in chart and where might be exhaustion.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUeee.PNG Size: 54 KB
  • #264
  • Dec 1, 2021 7:00am Dec 1, 2021 7:00am
Quoting kk100
I dont like oscies because for my style they don't add anything. MA's are different case, i use one unorthodox way and now can see i could use it for bounce, help with delta and volume. About delta/volume and footprint i could take this kind of entries without hesitation, just looking same time where price is generally in chart and where might be exhaustion. {image}
Sorry what is oscies?
I'm using moving average order/distance as filter for arrows. Because arrows formula is not complicated - it is like Current Close value > average close values of X candles back. So on screenshot provided there can be a lot of "long" arrows. But I don't need them. It will be hard to tell my bot why it must skip them but not skip short. BTW here we have perfect example why MA crosses not work. Check circles - they are crossovers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 42 KB
There were 5 crossovers on EU today that didn't worked out. And only last one worked. Because the sequence was completed.

Another EU short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB


It was closed too early as usual haha
TP was set at 1xcADR, but the DSL was triggered. But no regrets.

Stats:
Today: +12.12%
This week: +79.03%
Since start: +2.71% - loss RECOVERED YAHOO!!
Observer effect
  • #265
  • Dec 1, 2021 7:28am Dec 1, 2021 7:28am
Yes crossovers don't work. There use to be Biocomp profit company, dont know are they still.
They use swarms/dakota where was 100's of ma crossover strategies and they monitor which has best statistics, and use those one for entries, didnt look promising.

Oscies are how forest people call Oscillators.

If invitation to discord is still open, after sending EA files, i could join week or two. I think its different than busy PF's channel ?

I will show how to use MA and central gravity.
  • #266
  • Dec 1, 2021 7:44am Dec 1, 2021 7:44am
Quoting kk100
Yes crossovers don't work. There use to be Biocomp profit company, dont know are they still. They use swarms/dakota where was 100's of ma crossover strategies and they monitor which has best statistics, and use those one for entries, didnt look promising. Oscies are how forest people call Oscillators. If invitation to discord is still open, after sending EA files, i could join week or two. I think its different than busy PF's channel ? I will show how to use MA and central gravity.
Yes it is different. I sent you the invitation. I left his group because he said that I trade wrong and his group is not a place for such a trades. So I created new group for those who trade wrong
Observer effect
  • #267
  • Dec 1, 2021 8:16am Dec 1, 2021 8:16am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Yes it is different. I sent you the invitation. I left his group because he said that I trade wrong and his group is not a place for such a trades. So I created new group for those who trade wrong
  • #268
  • Dec 1, 2021 8:21am Dec 1, 2021 8:21am
Long XAU +0.74%
Long XAU +1.39%
Short GU +1.61%

Stats:
Today: +16.93%
This week: +86.71%
Since start: +7.12%
Observer effect
  • #269
  • Dec 1, 2021 1:28pm Dec 1, 2021 1:28pm
Quoting kk100
I will show how to use MA and central gravity.
Central gravity is most wanted!

If someone interested: I'm using MA several ways:
1. To check the crossover happened
2. To check the angle
3. To check the distance between MAs
4. To check the general direction

That's why I say: MA is just a basic indicator. It is like 2+2=4. Basis math rules. There are no magic, no luck, no bullshit around. Just pure math.

One more thing. A lot of people think that MA is lagging indicator. It is not. I said that many times and there were a lot of proofs. But who cares. Anyway. Lagging, if you wish, is everything more than SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE. If you are using Exponential - you LAG it yourself, using smoothness.
Observer effect
  • #270
  • Dec 2, 2021 9:55am Dec 2, 2021 9:55am
Today I missed all the trades, because I was out and then I was trying to fix my PC again. That windows bullshit makes me cry. Linux also strange. It was working fine and then it lost my videocard drivers and then lost my password. After reinstall I was not able to open my NAS share. I'm f$%*ng tired of that!!! I'm goin to buy Mac Pro. My mac pcs works perfect with no problem for years.

So today was only one trade.

Short XAU +7.99%

Attached Image

As usual it was closed too early and it could be much more $$ gained. But no regrets.

Stats:
Today: +7.99%
This week: +101.62%
Since start: +15.68%
Observer effect
  • #271
  • Edited 5:43am Dec 3, 2021 2:14am | Edited 5:43am
Short XAU +1.1%
closed too early heh

Short GU +0.94%

Long EU +0.72%

First block of 3 trades filled, so I have to have some rest (at least 1 hour).

===

UPD
Next 3 trades:

Long EU +2.49%
Long XAU +0.56%
Long GU +0.83%
That last one was idiotic trade with no signal. I was ready for huge loss, but price reversed back. This is how you SHOULD NOT trade.
Like RickM sayed: You got wet pants

Attached Image


So nothing fancy, today stats are not what I'm looking for:
Today: +6.81%
This week: +115.36%
Since start: +23.56%

P.S. People ask why there are no trades on crypto this week?
I have WD crypto to the cold wallet. Because the market is choppy, the volume is low. Whales accumulate and wait for gamblers to open their positions to set stops and liquidation price levels. So if the price will go higher - I'm already in 1x long (always by default). If it will do down - now I'm looking at 6h and 12h TF only - then I'll deposit it back and will open big short. But I think it will go up.
Observer effect
  • #272
  • Dec 3, 2021 7:35am Dec 3, 2021 7:35am
Quoting ryuryu
So nothing fancy
Now it is fancy

Long XAU +1.71%
Long XAU +8.43%

Today: +17.80%
This week: +137.52%
Since start: +36.27%
Observer effect
  • #273
  • Dec 4, 2021 10:46am Dec 4, 2021 10:46am
Today is Saturday and we can have some theoretic discussions here.

First is how to set moving average (stochastic, RSI, etc) from higher TF to lower TF? As I see people don't understand the math, so let's check the things.

Ok. For example you have Exponential Moving Average 100 on 1H timeframe.

1H = 1 hour.
Smallest TF available on MT4/5 is 1m, so 1H = 60 min.

Then, if you want to reproduce 100 EMA on 1m TF you must multiply 100 * 60. So 100 EMA on 1H TF equals to 6000 EMA on 1m TF.
if you want to have 100 EMA from 1H TF on 15m, then 100 * 4 = 400 (because 60/15=4).

You can create simple excle datasheet for faster calculations. Using this method you can see any "higher" TF data. But keep in mind that lower the TF smoother the data, because for its calculations you are using close values of candles and lower the tf more candles used.
Observer effect
  • #274
  • Dec 4, 2021 11:31am Dec 4, 2021 11:31am
Quoting ryuryu
Today is Saturday and we can have some theoretic discussions here. First is how to set moving average (stochastic, RSI, etc) from higher TF to lower TF? As I see people don't understand the math, so let's check the things. Ok. For example you have Exponential Moving Average 100 on 1H timeframe. 1H = 1 hour. Smallest TF available on MT4/5 is 1m, so 1H = 60 min. Then, if you want to reproduce 100 EMA on 1m TF you must multiply 100 * 60. So 100 EMA on 1H TF equals to 6000 EMA on 1m TF. if you want to have 100 EMA from 1H TF on 15m, then 100 * 4 = 400...
Thanks to help traders understand more how to use MA.
  • #275
  • Dec 4, 2021 11:51am Dec 4, 2021 11:51am
Quoting ryuryu
Today is Saturday and we can have some theoretic discussions here. First is how to set moving average (stochastic, RSI, etc) from higher TF to lower TF? As I see people don't understand the math, so let's check the things. Ok. For example you have Exponential Moving Average 100 on 1H timeframe. 1H = 1 hour. Smallest TF available on MT4/5 is 1m, so 1H = 60 min. Then, if you want to reproduce 100 EMA on 1m TF you must multiply 100 * 60. So 100 EMA on 1H TF equals to 6000 EMA on 1m TF. if you want to have 100 EMA from 1H TF on 15m, then 100 * 4 = 400...
Thank you for the theoretic discussion on how to set moving averages from higher to lower TFs.
kindly give examples for stochastic and RSI
  • #276
  • Edited 1:51pm Dec 4, 2021 1:31pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting Godwin Igili
{quote} Thank you for the theoretic discussion on how to set moving averages from higher to lower TFs. kindly give examples for stochastic and RSI
First we must check what stochastic and RSI are showing and how they work.
If moving average is average price for X candles back (if we set 100, that mean 100 candles back), then stochastic and RSI is let's say the same average price (in fact you can check the formula, it is more complicated, but it is ok as example) but shown as oscillator, that's why it has 0-100 rangle only.

But anyway for exmple RSI has 14 as default period. So if you want to reproduce RSI with 14 period from 4H tf on 5m tf, it will be:
4h = 240min. 240 / 5 = 48. 48 * 14 = 672.

So RSI 14 on 4H TF equals to RSI 672 on 5m TF. But as I said above remember that using 4H candles data to calculate and 1m data is different. 1m will be more smoothed and accurate, because there will be much more data for averaging.

Also remember that RSI and Stoch of course show neither oversold nor overbought because there are no volume data in their formulas.
Observer effect
  • #277
  • Dec 4, 2021 1:57pm Dec 4, 2021 1:57pm
Next thing to talk about: What is reverse candle and how it works?

As we know each candle has 4 data: open, close, high and low. High and low also called shadows or wicks. Open and close show body of the candle.
In fact there are no more data available on forex.

Reverse candle is very interesting formation. It is when current candle high or low > or < previous candle high or low and the candle type (color) is opposite.

Attached Image

Check this example. Here we have big bear candle and next bull candle and its low > low of that bear one.
What does that mean in simple words? That mean, that possible bears are tired. And the bulls start to rule the game.

I must say that it is impossible to use and indicator as the only data to make trading decision. We must look at the whole picture. For example here price was far far away from its average, previous candles were way too big, so that reverse was a good place to enter the trade. The probability was high.
Observer effect
  • #278
  • Dec 6, 2021 5:13am Dec 6, 2021 5:13am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} First we must check what stochastic and RSI are showing and how they work. If moving average is average price for X candles back (if we set 100, that mean 100 candles back), then stochastic and RSI is let's say the same average price (in fact you can check the formula, it is more complicated, but it is ok as example) but shown as oscillator, that's why it has 0-100 rangle only. But anyway for exmple RSI has 14 as default period. So if you want to reproduce RSI with 14 period from 4H tf on 5m tf, it will be: 4h = 240min. 240 / 5 = 48. 48...
Thank you Ryan for the settings calculations for MAs and RSI on different TFs.
What will be the Stochastic settings for the H1TF, if stochastic for M15 settings are %K=34; Slowing=2 and %D=6?

Regards
  • #279
  • Dec 6, 2021 5:24am Dec 6, 2021 5:24am
Quoting Godwin Igili
{quote} Thank you Ryan for the settings calculations for MAs and RSI on different TFs. What will be the Stochastic settings for the H1TF, if stochastic for M15 settings are %K=34; Slowing=2 and %D=6? Regards
Slowing and D can be the same, because they are calculated from the length. And it is 34. So the only number we must think about here is 34. It mean 34 candles back.
Next. I didn't get. You want to reproduce 15m Stoch 34 to the 1h? Or 1H tf Stoch 34 to 15m?

Anyway.

15m Stoch 34 to 1H = 34 / 4 = 8.5
1H Stoch 34 to 15m = 34 * 4 = 136

Where 4 is the difference between 60 min and 15 min (60/15=4)
Observer effect
  • #280
  • Dec 6, 2021 5:52am Dec 6, 2021 5:52am
Today was a nice trading day. No bad trades, nothing fancy.

Long GU +2.11% in 2
Long GU +1.22%
Short XAU +0.72%
Short XAU +3.35%
Long XAU +1.56%
Short GU +0.57%
Short GU +0.06%
Short XAU +1.3%

Today: +11.38%
Since start: +51.78%

Because I made 10% today I'll not trade NYO. I'll pause till tomorrow. And it is siesta time, so I need to sleep a little haha

BTW XAU and GU candle size increasing. They are 51.1 and 16.6 (was 48 and 15)
Observer effect
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