Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

Hi! My name is Ryan. Welcome to my interactive trading journal!

I'm trading forex and crypto for a while. Have created several custom indicators and EAs.
In most cases I'm trading London and NY sessions on forex, and NY+ on crypto.
Timeframes are: 1m, 15m, 1h, 4, 6h and 12h.

Indicators used:
1. Moving average. This is great indicator. I'm using 8 low, 8 high, 50 / 100 / 200 EMAs on every timeframe.
2. Stochastic. Great to find exits. You can use RSI if you don't like Stoch. I'm using Stoch because it has 2 lines and it generates much more variants for algo trading.
3. ADR. I'm using it like an index to check candle size, distance for TP/SL and even to calculate the lot sizes.
4. Volume/Delta. This is the heart of my trading system. Forex has no volume, so I have to take it from CME futures.
5. Candle size, Daily open, Asian high/low and others. I'll try to explain everything.

NB: I have custom indicators used, but you can use most of them for free from MT5. I don't have MT4, but I think every indi is available for that platform too.

Daily profit target is 5%.

Strategy basics used in most cases:
First we must determine the trend. I'm using 1h and 15m time frames for that. Both my be in sync. Then we can stay on 15m/1h TF or dive deeper even on 1m TF to find the signal to trade.
The main rule is that we must trade only volatile pairs, where are a lot of volume detected and the movements are big. Next we must find imbalance and utilize that. Big volume + imbalance let us hide our trades with big player trades.

Notes for crypto. On bull market if you own crypto you are 1x long by default. So it is better to trade BTC futures nominated in BTC, not in dollars. So trading it with forex brokes make no sense. Also if you are trading btc futures are can have rebates for market orders and positive funding every 8 hours for shorts. Also there are no liquidation price for 1x shorts. So it is barely impossible (but you can try) to scalp it on 1m tf. That's why my crypto trades are on from 15m to 12h timeframes.

What is not used by me: praying, sitting and waiting for the miracle. If the entry is wrong - jump out immediately. I'm using hedging, but my stats say that I'm not good in hedging and all my losses comes mostly from that kind of trades. So you can use hedges or you can just use stop losses. For me stops are better. Also hedging is not working on EU and GU, 50/50 works on XAU and works perfect on BTC. Just because the movements are much bigger. So keep that in mind.

House rules: To all who has another strategy/approach - please keep away. I don't care how you trade, how much you earn and what you think about my trading.
Keep your thoughts yourself.
Let's go!

I'll try to explain the things.

Let's check the trade that was taken today on BTC

Arrow point on the green circle. It is "MA cross", that mean that fast moving avertage (in this case it is 33 EMA) cross 100 and 200 EMA and there are distance between them.

Now let's check this:

As you see there are a lot of dots. Some of them are red, some white. They are stochastic. White mean they are filtered using moving average order and distance.
So we need to find only white dots for long signal. Then you see arrow. The sequence is: Cross + Stoch + Arrow.
Also, the signal come higher than Asian High. So the long position was opened.

This trade was opene with 5x leverage, the profit is +3.52%

Next trade on GU:

First let's examine the chart
As you see there were "short" cross and even short shochastics (yellow dots). But there were no short arrow. So we say the sequence is incomplete.

But look next:

Everything is perfect. Cross + Stoch + Arrow. Sequence complete, long opened and closed at the first red stoch found (higher the Asian High - darkTurquoise line)

+0.5%

But this all is good, but not so funny like trading Gold with red news.


This is incredible +30.12%

Attached Image

It was 13 trades. All you have to do is to check the Delta. I'm not checking volume, because this indicator for MT5 in not good, also if delta is big then volume is big too.

Meanwile my btc long is also in profit:


That trade was taken on 12h TF because there were a room to trade till 8 EMA high:
The size was small (because the main direction was short, but anyway it can gain some %)

The trade was close, it was +0.78%

---

My trading is over for today. It is

Forex: +30.12%
Crypto: +4.33%

Average 5% target reached. But on crypto there can be one more trade today, but for sure no more trades on forex. Too risky and I don't want to lose the profit gained.

What is sensitive in trading? Time and volume. There are no other things you should check to be successful in trading.
Timing is everything and volume is a key. But both is the most powerful instrument you have.

Look at this. Why waste time to trade here?
There are no volume, no delta, no appropriate candle size. Nothing. Just a mess.

But look at this beauty:

Trying to catch BTC at 8 EMA low on 15 TF with tp at 499:



UPD: closed

And it is +0.57%

So total for 28.10.21 is
Forex: +30.12%
Crypto: +4.9% - need more 0.1% to have daily 5% target reached

Final btc trade in 2: +0.46%

Entry:
61,230.0 -> 61,296.5
-> 61,300.0
So it is +5.25% mission complete!

Now it's time to dance a little!!!


UPD:

Have returned and was this beautiful BTC fall. So can't resist to trade this:

Long 60,430.0 -> 60,530.0 filled
+ 0.76%

So now total for today is +6.12% (closed too early but no regrets)

2 more trades:

61,154.5 -> 61,155.0 +0.18%
61,068.0 -> 61,099.0 +0.35%

And it is +6.7%

I have to stop now, because on 15m, 1h and 4h price is higher all the possible moving averages. It is not safe to go long (there are no target for TP) and this is too riky to short because it can run unstoppable.

New day started. Let's take a look at the market.

First I have to determine main direction.

EURUSD - Bullish
GBPUSD - Bullish
XAUUSD - Bearish (but with risk warning, price is higher EMA 200 on 1h+)
BTCUSD - Bullish



short gu in 2 +0.42%



Closed too early, but no regrets. Profit is profit. Since GU direction is bullish the risk is high. It can reverse hard. So I have decided to add more at Daily Open (white line) and once the profit comes a little my trailing stop was triggered. But as you see guys, the price go down more. So I missed huge profit.

Next trade is EURUSD long.
I didn't tell you about this kind of trades, so let's learn a little


As you see here we have: EMA 33 (red), EMA 100 (gold), EMA 200 (green), EMA 333 (blue)

EMA 333 is for SL or Hedge purpose.

Then you see dashed lines higher the three EMAs. It is linked to the EMA100. So now let's check where the price is. It was lower than first botton dashed line.
Also, as you see there were "start". Star is reverse candle.

The main direction for EU today is bullish, so it is pretty safe to open reversal longs.

BTW you see lower horizontal blue line - it is Asian Low. And if you check the chart the price jump to it and bounce back.


So my trade was close early as usual haha but again no regrets. It is +0.33%

So total on forex already is +0.75%

Forgot to tell you guys why the decision was made. Check that beautiful delta:
So as you see here we have reverse candle (mean that sellers pocket are empty) and delta (more buys). And the distance from price if far away. And main direction is bullish.

XAU trade:


TP was at Asian low, but trailing stop was triggered at -21p from entry. So it is only +1.29%.

So it is closed too early again. Look how nice it could be:

BTC long closed. It was long trade +1.07%

61,251.0 -> 61,412.0

UPD:

My trading for today is over.
Forex +1.29%
Crypto +1.07%

Not so good results, but it is Friday and overall profit for this week is ok.

Have a good weekend! See ya on Monday!

UPD
BTC long

61,246.0 -> 61,339.0 +0.68%

the volume has come, so I can't resist and open one more trade

Forex +1.29%
Crypto +1.76%

Long BTC
61,437.5 -> 61,554.5 +0.8%

Closed too early. It should be my tag

Not trying to spam your thread but gbpusd gbpjpy and eurusd still have a long drop ahead.

I can't trade gbpjpy since there are no volume data for it.
Agree that GU now turned bearish. 1h, 4h, 6h and even 12h price is lower than 200 EMA. EU bearish for a long time already.


So next week:

EU - bearish
GU - bearish
XAU - mixed, some TFs are bullish, some bearish. Risky, so only fast delta imbalance trades. Also no hedges, but SL (because the direction is unknown)
BTC - bullish

Anyway it is better to check the things every day, everything changes.

BTC short



60,724.5 -> 60,606.5 +0.82%

Ryan , when you said the distance from price far way you from price to envelope ? Thanks Ryan.

To determine the distance I'm using this approach:
First I need to have something to start calculation from. I think it is EURUSD. Because USD is the main currency in the world.
Then I use ADR for 5 or 10 days. And then I calculate the index, the multiplier that I'll use.
For example if one distance for EURUSD is 0.25% then for BTCUSD it will be 2.85%, for XAU it will be 0.64% etc.
If one distance for EU is 300 points, then for BTC is if 87773 point. And so on.

If you are using envelope then you can set deviation 0.7 for BTC. But it will be incorrect for XAU, GU and EU. For EU or XAU it must be 0.075. And so on.
I'm making it automatically, once I change the pair my custom indicator recalculate everything using adr, master pair and the multiplier.

The idea is that if the price is far away and, for example, reverse candle found, you can open the position.
As you see here we have (it is BTC as example) strong downtrend. And 2 reverse candle found far away from price. So you can open long till EMA50 (red line), because the price will hit it.
In fact I don't like that kind of trades much, because it is trading against the trend, but with strong delta and big volume it is ok.

UPD

Long BTC

60739.5 -> 60,946.5, 60,935.0, 60,930.0
+1.24%


---
Total crypto pforit today is +2.06%

Yesterday one more long was closed on BTC. So the profit was +2.42%
--------------------

Now new day and new month started. Let's check the things.

XAU - short short term, but long in general - risky
BTC - long
EU - short
GU - short, but it seems like it is a bottom and it can bounce soon.


Short GU +2.01%

TP was set on previous day low. But trailing stop was triggered a little higher.



UPD:

Long BTC + 1.14%