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Sentiment tracker (2021) 2 replies

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The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage

  • #161
  • Jun 2, 2021 5:52am Jun 2, 2021 5:52am
BTC trading just below a Resistance:

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  • #162
  • Jun 7, 2021 4:27pm Jun 7, 2021 4:27pm
Quoting joyny
BTC in bearish sentiment for several months. Next driver down related to possible US ban because of this hummiliating case: Colonial Pipeline Maybe ban wont be realy implemented but some political talking and loud announcements we can see in US.
And here it comes... Political talking...
  • #163
  • Jun 7, 2021 5:18pm Jun 7, 2021 5:18pm
So this 30-40K channel is holding strong. I have no idea if the consolidation will complete next month or next year, but I think it'll be smart to follow the channel break whichever way it goes. Ie long if it convincingly breaks to the 40Ks, short if it convincingly breaks to the 20Ks. I'll probably get in on that trade, and this time I'm using CME futures.
  • #164
  • Jun 14, 2021 9:30am Jun 14, 2021 9:30am
Quoting Goat
So this 30-40K channel is holding strong. I have no idea if the consolidation will complete next month or next year, but I think it'll be smart to follow the channel break whichever way it goes. Ie long if it convincingly breaks to the 40Ks, short if it convincingly breaks to the 20Ks. I'll probably get in on that trade, and this time I'm using CME futures.
I wouldn't consider this a convincing break above $40,000. It's gotta hold for a while. Cryptos are rallying across the board, Bitcoin more than the others:
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  • #165
  • Jun 14, 2021 12:57pm Jun 14, 2021 12:57pm
Quoting TwoSense
{quote} I wouldn't consider this a convincing break above $40,000. It's gotta hold for a while. Cryptos are rallying across the board, Bitcoin more than the others: {image}
Yeah looks like it's just bumping the guardrail. Probably a good short opportunity down to $35K but I'm not currently in the game.
  • #166
  • Jun 15, 2021 1:13pm Jun 15, 2021 1:13pm
Starting to look pretty convincing.
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What's throwing me for a loop is that I expected the channel to hold up longer. It's only been about a month.
  • #167
  • Jun 16, 2021 8:41am Jun 16, 2021 8:41am
Quoting Goat
Starting to look pretty convincing. {image} What's throwing me for a loop is that I expected the channel to hold up longer. It's only been about a month.
Your post caught btc it at the top. It's come down and held at $39,000.
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A clear break of $40,000 hasn't happened yet. Since June 14th we've been in this 38k/41k range.
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Zoom out a little further and it looks weak and it's possible it did test the $40,000 'area' and on it's way to down to $30,000 again.
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  • #168
  • Jun 16, 2021 9:56am Jun 16, 2021 9:56am
Quoting TwoSense
{quote} Your post caught btc it at the top. It's come down and held at $39,000. {image} A clear break of $40,000 hasn't happened yet. Since June 14th we've been in this 38k/41k range. {image} Zoom out a little further and it looks weak and it's possible it did test the $40,000 'area' and on it's way to down to $30,000 again. {image}
Yup. It's back to the channel for now.
  • #169
  • Jun 23, 2021 9:59am Jun 23, 2021 9:59am
Quoting Goat
{quote} Yup. It's back to the channel for now.
Dipped under $30,000 earlier but bounced back up and that channel remains strong. Those swings outside of the channel shows there is strong support and resistance at the 30 and 40K levels.
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  • #170
  • Jun 26, 2021 9:58am Jun 26, 2021 9:58am
I have a feeling BTC is about to break this lower bound and head deep into the 20Ks. Started feeling it yesterday and woke up today wanting to sell my last 10 coins.

Just a feeling... can't put my finger in it yet.
  • #171
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:48am Jul 13, 2021 12:48am
She held up for a few weeks but this week might be the end of the 30Ks.
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  • #172
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:56am Jul 13, 2021 12:56am
Quoting Goat
I have one prediction: June volatility will be the lowest of 2021.
This came true, for the record.

June was just below January...
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  • #173
  • Jul 19, 2021 7:13am Jul 19, 2021 7:13am
Quoting Goat
She held up for a few weeks but this week might be the end of the 30Ks. {image}
That^ did not come true. But we sure are knocking on the door!
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  • #174
  • Jul 19, 2021 7:26am Jul 19, 2021 7:26am
Quoting Goat
Just a feeling... can't put my finger in it yet.
I figured it out... we're going to the 20Ks because a) everyone's already bought in and b) there's no good news left.

a) was established earlier and was the basis of my exit at ~50K.

b) is the more important issue right now. The past few months produced headlines that were once a wet dream of bitcoiners. Goldman, Morgan, UBS, and every big bank is building infrastructure for bitcoin. But when the headlines drop BTC doesn't rally. On the other hand, bad news, like China's crackdown, hit like a hammer.

Basically, there's no buyers left and nothing to lure more buyers. That could only mean one thing: the 20Ks are coiming.
  • #175
  • Jul 19, 2021 8:50am Jul 19, 2021 8:50am
Quoting Goat
{quote} I figured it out... we're going to the 20Ks because a) everyone's already bought in and b) there's no good news left. a) was established earlier and was the basis of my exit at ~50K. b) is the more important issue right now. The past few months produced headlines that were once a wet dream of bitcoiners. Goldman, Morgan, UBS, and every big bank is building infrastructure for bitcoin. But when the headlines drop BTC doesn't rally. On the other hand, bad news, like China's crackdown, hit like a hammer. Basically, there's no buyers left and...
News of country's starting to adopt it haven't been having the expected impact. El Savador and now maybe Paraguay.

It's been staying in that $30-40K range but now it looks like it's going to break down below the $30K level.
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  • #176
  • Jul 19, 2021 11:07pm Jul 19, 2021 11:07pm
It's just sellers and bad news out there.
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I'll be swing-trading this next channel. Money's on the way to my futures broker.
  • #177
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:03am Jul 20, 2021 12:03am
I wonder what'll happen when Saylor is forced to liquidate.
  • #178
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:06am Jul 20, 2021 12:06am
Down to 25 k before consolidation

Providing we don't have a GFC Part 2 BTC will make

2022 high of 200 k

2023 low of 60 k

Then to the moon

Why? Logarithmic growth, Fib fractals, Pi Cycle top, RSI divergence
  • #179
  • Jul 21, 2021 5:05pm Jul 21, 2021 5:05pm
Quoting antgal23
Down to 25 k before consolidation Providing we don't have a GFC Part 2 BTC will make 2022 high of 200 k 2023 low of 60 k Then to the moon Why? Logarithmic growth, Fib fractals, Pi Cycle top, RSI divergence
Now that's a prediction with balls.
  • #180
  • Jul 29, 2021 3:47am Jul 29, 2021 3:47am
Quoting Goat
It's just sellers and bad news out there. {image} I'll be swing-trading this next channel. Money's on the way to my futures broker.
It's been straight to $40K since I posted that. Guess I have the opportunity to trade this channel and the next.
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My broker put a disrespectful hold on my funds but they get released today. My first crypto short coming up shortly.
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