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Sentiment tracker (2021) 2 replies

Attachments: The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage
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The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage

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  • First Post: Jan 6, 2021 11:07pm Jan 6, 2021 11:07pm
I think we're looking at a supply shortage here:
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At $10K most of the supply was with miners and retailers (aka hodlers).

Then Paypal sparks institutional interest and we're on the way to $20K.

Many miners and retailers sell on the way to $20K. There's a big fight for $20K, and by the time we hit $25K all the retailers and miners have sold. Miners sell because $20K looks juicy on their income statements, and the hodlers ditch their mantra for the CASH BABY!!

At $30K most bitcoin is in the hands of these new institutions. They aren't selling their brand new positions!

So who's selling bitcoin right now? The answer is... nobody! Regardless of how low the demand may be (and it's probably high), there are no coins to buy.

$50K here we come!!!
Crossed $40K today, $50K should be coming in a few days.... if this is indeed a shortage.
See how fast this market bounces back? We had a big seller come in, and immediately the buyers took all he would sell.
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The miners are probably selling the 6.25 BTC they are earning every 10 minutes.
Quoting cryptocow
The miners are probably selling the 6.25 BTC they are earning every 10 minutes.
Like selling apples off the tree!
Quoting cryptocow
The miners are probably selling the 6.25 BTC they are earning every 10 minutes.
Why???



All assumptions of Goat are wrong above too...



People sell when they wish, so do Miners.


Take me - I'll sell at 50-100k say.


And any price between ......

Soooo.
Why would miners have sold 20k???
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors. ;)
Der Trader All Time Pips: 52,970
Quoting Not-KPMG
Soooo. Why would miners have sold 20k???
They were holding $10K bitcoin for so long that $20K looked like a hell of a deal. And too much risk was on the table, they had to lighten up.

Miners are businesses so I'm assuming they act like it.

But yeah I could be wrong about all this. If we don't hit 50K by end of next week I'm definitely wrong.

Quoting Not-KPMG
People sell when they wish, so do Miners.
Yeah you can't predict a single person's actions, but crowds can certainly be predicted.
Quoting Goat
{quote} They were holding $10K bitcoin for so long that $20K looked like a hell of a deal. And too .. wrong. {quote}

Yeah you can't predict a single person's actions, but crowds can certainly be predicted.

Hi buddy

Well it's all perspective man.



Think of this angle - why do they invest millions in miners, electricity etc....?



Because they expect profits

Big profits (just like me).
And they can take a loan for say 15%....yearly. Wish I did


Bitcoin can jump from 900% to 1900% in a year.
Looking at charts ... ..

Was 5k. Going to 100k.


Soooo


Did they sell at MISERABLE 20000 dollars


I didn't .... They didn't (OK maybe little).


We just need patience
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Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors. ;)
Der Trader All Time Pips: 52,970
Quoting Goat
I think we're looking at a supply shortage here: {. . , and by the time we hit $25K all the retailers and miners have sold. Miners sell because $20K looks juicy on their income statements,... . $50K here we come!!!

You're good guy Goat



What assumptions though




OK, one thing that is certain but you didn't consider is MINERS PROFIT.


That is driving the Shortage, if you call it so.


They mine 1 Bitcoin for say 18000 dollars. My guess....
Go find the costs??


So today at 41000 they have NO NEED to sell a lot of Bitcoin .
They just keep it.


Here's your shortage


And the higher the price the more shortage.


Agree?
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors. ;)
Der Trader All Time Pips: 52,970
This hodler liquidated: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/com...ents_mortgage/

Quote
Just sold to pay off my parents' mortgage

My parents are everything to me. They've worked their asses off to raise me and my two little siblings, starting with nothing as immigrants. They're in the restaurant business and the pandemic forced them to burn through a large chunk of their savings, and they stress out over finances every single day. My dad always told me one day he'll retire once the house is paid off, and that day is finally here.
I started buying BTC at the 2017 frenzy and all through out the past 3 years, and today I sold all of my 6 BTC and am closing their remaining loan balance with enough to spare for taxes + maybe a new car.
Today is the day I've dreamt of for the past several years, and it feels so surreal.
Thank you bitcoin community for all the memes and bullshit TA threads. I've reached my moon.
Quoting Not-KPMG
What assumptions though
All we have in trading is our assumptions! You're a good guy too NKPMG, and I've seen you post your assumptions around here for many years. A lot were right, and a lot were ridiculous, but I trust you profited more when you were right as you're still here.

Quoting Not-KPMG
OK, one thing that is certain but you didn't consider is MINERS PROFIT. That is driving the Shortage, if you call it so. They mine 1 Bitcoin for say 18000 dollars. My guess.... Go find the costs?? So today at 41000 they have NO NEED to sell a lot of Bitcoin . They just keep it. Here's your shortage And the higher the price the more shortage. Agree?
The shortage should remain steady. The price is a result of the shortage, not the other way around.

One coin is mined every ten minutes, regardless of how many miners there are or how much horsepower they're throwing at it. That's not enough to fill the retail orders at Coinbase.
Quoting cityRat
This hodler liquidated: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/com...ents_mortgage/ {quote}
Yup, exactly the median situation I was modeling.
Quoting cityRat
This hodler liquidated: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/com...ents_mortgage/ {quote}
That’s just some institutional propaganda trying to get the hodlers to sell their coins.
I think this $33K price level blows a hole in the supply shortage theory.
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I'm feeling lucky that I was able to sell some in the 40's.
Looks like I've finally got my chance to buy! The supply shortage may be legitimized soon enough, this past week was huge for crypto in mainstream news. Personally I'm going to be skewing towards alts - quite the discount on BSV
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Risk recycler.
Took a nice bounce off $30K.
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The next couple days will say a lot about this rally. If we go right back to $40K it's back to the supply shortage model... but if it hangs around $35K, or goes lower, that probably means the rally is over and we're going to bounce around in the $30K's for a few months.


Quoting yieldjunkie
quite the discount on BSV {image}
Quoting Goat
I think we're looking at a supply shortage here:
The Mooch agrees!!

https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampp...es-11609861504
Quoting cityRat
{quote} The Mooch agrees!! https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampp...es-11609861504
If the Skybridge Chairman says it, must be right!
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Quoting Goat
The next couple days will say a lot about this rally. If we go right back to $40K it's back to the supply shortage model... but if it hangs around $35K, or goes lower, that probably means the rally is over and we're going to bounce around in the $30K's for a few months.
It's been a mixed bag since I said that^. I definitely wouldn't say the rally is over, but it does feels like we're getting near the top. Just look at this volatility! We're pancaking the chart history!
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Waiting to see 40K print again.
Buckle up we're back on the gas!!!
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One thing has become clear... we got sellers at $40K!!!
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Meaning, we might not make it to $50K for a while. The fight to break $40K will probably look something like the fight for $20K...
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