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Sentiment tracker (2021) 2 replies

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The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage

  • #181
  • Jul 30, 2021 1:41pm Jul 30, 2021 1:41pm
I shorted 40 mini contracts at $40K. Meant to get 50 but the last ten ran away from me.
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I'm channel surfing until I get bucked down.
  • #182
  • Jul 30, 2021 3:52pm Jul 30, 2021 3:52pm
Quoting Goat
I shorted 40 mini contracts at $40K. Meant to get 50 but the last ten ran away from me. {image} I'm channel surfing until I get bucked down.
Did the spike just now bring those last 10 in for you?
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D85YHaQ6nQTp4oT13sHoAZbETn3sADVnF8
  • #183
  • Jul 30, 2021 3:57pm Jul 30, 2021 3:57pm
Quoting g-force
{quote} Did the spike just now bring those last 10 in for you?
Sure did!!
  • #184
  • Aug 2, 2021 10:10am Aug 2, 2021 10:10am
Quoting Goat
I shorted 40 mini contracts at $40K. Meant to get 50 but the last ten ran away from me. {image} I'm channel surfing until I get bucked down.
Nice. 40 mini contracts is 4 BTC?
  • #185
  • Aug 5, 2021 1:52am Aug 5, 2021 1:52am
Quoting swagtrading
40 mini contracts is 4 BTC?
Yep! Now I'm short 50 at 40,050.

I'm not loving this trade, however. It's still at my entry after a week. It should have fallen by now if it was going to bounce back into the channel. I'm giving it another 24 hours to start acting right, otherwise looking to exit.
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  • #186
  • Aug 5, 2021 10:18pm Aug 5, 2021 10:18pm
I put in a limit order to exit at BE. BTC could definitely break into the 40's and I wouldn't want to be on that ride. My new trading career is off to a shaky start.
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  • #187
  • Aug 5, 2021 11:45pm Aug 5, 2021 11:45pm
Now I'm just long these 10 BTC.
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  • #188
  • Aug 6, 2021 12:01am Aug 6, 2021 12:01am
This is the kind of thing I got scared about with my short. I need to see how this plays out before resuming my career.
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  • #189
  • Aug 6, 2021 4:19pm Aug 6, 2021 4:19pm
I think it's safe to say we're back to the 40Ks. Feels like a new wave of buyers is here. I'm seeing it as slightly conservative institutional money.
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  • #190
  • Aug 7, 2021 4:17pm Aug 7, 2021 4:17pm
Quoting Goat
before resuming my career.
I'm thinking about a short at ~46K, try to ride it into the high 30Ks. This bets that BTC will move in 50% waves, ie act like a proper commodity.
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  • #191
  • Aug 16, 2021 10:02pm Aug 16, 2021 10:02pm
I might make that^ trade if somebody triple-dog dares me.
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  • #192
  • Aug 18, 2021 8:55am Aug 18, 2021 8:55am
Quoting Goat
This bets that BTC will move in 50% waves, ie act like a proper commodity. {image}
I don't see this happening until we get some ETFs in the mix. I'm not sure which direction bitcoin's next move will be.

Looking at the latest CFTC COT report, there's not a lot of volume in the CME BTC and MBT, especially on the retail side of things. Open interest for BTC contract was at 6,769. For MBT contract is was 19,439. Retail traders only account for 7% of BTC open interest and 0.9% of MBT open interest. It should be noted that it's a speculative asset so you could lump in the institutions as speculators.

Positioning is slightly shifting. It may be profit taking. Institutions are holding steady at 56% short while retail traders shifted from the week prior to 37% from 12% short. That's for BTC.

There's 0 MBT contracts short on the retail side for both reports (Aug 3, Aug 10). Retail traders going from 575 long MBT contracts on Aug 3rd to 181 on Aug 10th tells me that somebody might have been taking profits.

Probably worth noting that all the data above excludes non-reportable positions which account for roughly 37% in BTC and 26% in MBT. In this category traders are more bullish on bitcoin (both contracts). In both BTC and MBT, traders are holding about 3x longs vs shorts.
  • #193
  • Aug 18, 2021 6:35pm Aug 18, 2021 6:35pm
Quoting TwoSense
{quote} I don't see this happening until we get some ETFs in the mix. I'm not sure which direction bitcoin's next move will be. Looking at the latest CFTC COT report, there's not a lot of volume in the CME BTC and MBT, especially on the retail side of things. Open interest for BTC contract was at 6,769. For MBT contract is was 19,439. Retail traders only account for 7% of BTC open interest and 0.9% of MBT open interest. It should be noted that it's a speculative asset so...
Interesting analysis.

I'll try to dig into the reports to see if I can add anything.
  • #194
  • Aug 20, 2021 12:11pm Aug 20, 2021 12:11pm
Quoting TwoSense
{quote} I don't see this happening until we get some ETFs in the mix. I'm not sure which direction bitcoin's next move will be. Looking at the latest CFTC COT report, there's not a lot of volume in the CME BTC and MBT, especially on the retail side of things. Open interest for BTC contract was at 6,769. For MBT contract is was 19,439. Retail traders only account for 7% of BTC open interest and 0.9% of MBT open interest. It should be noted that it's a speculative asset so...
In the post I had retail and institutions flipped. My bad! Here are the corrections to make better sense of it. 'Commercial' or institutional open interest is very low. They seem to be holding out for the ETF(s).

 

  1. Open interest for BTC contract was at 6,769. For MBT contract is was 19,439. Institutional traders only account for 7% of BTC open interest and 0.9% of MBT open interest.
  2. Retail traders are holding steady at 56% short while institutional traders shifted from the week prior to 37% from 12% short. That's for BTC.
  3. There's 0 MBT contracts short on the institutional side for both reports (Aug 3, Aug 10).
  4. Institutional traders going from 575 long MBT contracts on Aug 3rd to 181 on Aug 10th tells me that somebody might have been taking profits.

  • #195
  • Aug 24, 2021 1:42am Aug 24, 2021 1:42am
Quoting TwoSense
{quote} In the post I had retail and institutions flipped. My bad! Here are the corrections to make better sense of it. 'Commercial' or institutional open interest is very low. They seem to be holding out for the ETF(s). Open interest for BTC contract was at 6,769. For MBT contract is was 19,439. Institutional traders only account for 7% of BTC open interest and 0.9% of MBT open interest. Retail traders are holding steady at 56% short while institutional traders shifted from the week prior to 37% from 12% short. That's for BTC. There's 0 MBT contracts...
I think you're off on a few definitions. 'Commercial' is the hedgers. 'Non-commercial' is the speculators. Retail isn't reported on the CoT. You can, however, use MBT as a retail proxy, because why would an institution trade micro?

The most interesting thing I see on the BTC positioning is that there are barely any hedgers. I expect that will change as the crypto industry matures.

Quoting TwoSense
I don't see this happening
On this you are right. BTC at $50K blows a hole in my 'proper commodity' theory.
  • #196
  • Aug 24, 2021 8:17am Aug 24, 2021 8:17am
Quoting Goat
{quote} I think you're off on a few definitions. 'Commercial' is the hedgers. 'Non-commercial' is the speculators. Retail isn't reported on the CoT. You can, however, use MBT as a retail proxy, because why would an institution trade micro? The most interesting thing I see on the BTC positioning is that there are barely any hedgers. I expect that will change as the crypto industry matures. {quote} On this you are right. BTC at $50K blows a hole in my 'proper commodity' theory.
Yeah I had it all flipped. I agree that the MBT is a good indicator of retail.
  • #197
  • Aug 24, 2021 10:05pm Aug 24, 2021 10:05pm
Glad I'm not one of those shorts stuck in this rally!
  • #198
  • Edited Sep 7, 2021 1:28pm Sep 6, 2021 4:09pm | Edited Sep 7, 2021 1:28pm
Quoting Goat
Feels like a new wave of buyers is here. I'm seeing it as slightly conservative institutional money.
I have no clue where this money is coming from. Quite impressive.
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  • #199
  • Sep 8, 2021 7:23pm Sep 8, 2021 7:23pm
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She might go proper after all.

The difference between $45K and $55K in my mind is a historic crossroad. At $45K we're in a recognizable reality, at $55K we're in a paradigm shift and sky's the limit. I'm on the edge of my seat.
  • #200
  • Sep 8, 2021 7:55pm Sep 8, 2021 7:55pm
El Salvador was historic. The first country to adopt Bitcoin as a national currency. What bigger milestone can there be for the new currency form.

Sounds great, but I'm skeptical. In Econ 101 I learned that currency must be stable. When eggs are $2 on Monday and $4 on Friday it muffs everything up. Restaurants can't plan, businesses can't invest, consumer confidence falls. Stability of a currency is the second-most important feature behind faith.

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So how can BTC, in all its crazy volatility, possibly act as a national currency? I applaud the gusto, but isn't this a little premature?
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