Does the martingale system really work? | Page 33 | Crypto Craft

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Does the martingale system really work?

  • #641
  • Jan 28, 2020 1:56pm Jan 28, 2020 1:56pm
Hi guys,
Apologies for jumping in here but I'm a new member and not allowed to start my own thread...
I come from a sports betting/trading background and haven't started trading Forex yet but am interested in learning and building/testing my own strategies.
For sports backtesting I mainly use spreadsheets with various counting formula's etc, I was wondering what the easiest way is to backtest Forex strategies?
Do you also use spreadsheets, or are there tools which allow you to search through historical charts?
Things like, say for any given currency pair you wanted to search for every time there was a +50 pip move within a chosen timeframe, fairly simple searches really.
Cheers!
  • #642
  • Jan 28, 2020 7:46pm Jan 28, 2020 7:46pm
Quoting marwood
Hi guys, Apologies for jumping in here but I'm a new member and not allowed to start my own thread... I come from a sports betting/trading background and haven't started trading Forex yet but am interested in learning and building/testing my own strategies. For sports backtesting I mainly use spreadsheets with various counting formula's etc, I was wondering what the easiest way is to backtest Forex strategies? Do you also use spreadsheets, or are there tools which allow you to search through historical charts? Things like, say for any given currency...
Hello and welcome to the world of Forex trading marwood. To answer your question you can either use spreadsheets, papertrade, use an automated backtest simulator like the one on mt4. There are some traders who use spreadsheets in order to backtest strategies (for me personally I have never done so.) I have used fxblue trade simulator with mt4 but stopped doing that also as it just takes too long and makes more sense to automate your system and either forward test or backtest on mt4.

In all honesty there are many options that depend mostly on your personality and/or preference but for me, the best way to test a strategy is to first start on demo. After you do a visual test and sift through some charts, come up with some SIMPLE rules for entry and exit. Then define your RISK parameters. Using demo will give you a good understanding of how the platform works if you are a complete newbie. And make sure to keep a trading journal. Whether that's a spreadsheet or word document is up to you. I myself use a text document for my manual trading and mark down all my trades with the entry times prices, and dates. This helps me to stay disciplined and stick to my rules while evaluating my results.


Hope that helps.
  • #643
  • Edited Jan 30, 2020 1:51am Jan 29, 2020 2:23pm | Edited Jan 30, 2020 1:51am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Hello and welcome to the world of Forex trading marwood. To answer your question you can either use spreadsheets, papertrade, use an automated backtest simulator like the one on mt4. There are some traders who use spreadsheets in order to backtest strategies (for me personally I have never done so.) I have used fxblue trade simulator with mt4 but stopped doing that also as it just takes too long and makes more sense to automate your system and either forward test or backtest on mt4. In all honesty there are many options that depend mostly...

Thanks viptrading.
I managed to find csv data files on Yahoo and Google finance so I can do something with those.
I like to do a backtest first just to see if I'm somewhere near or way off target, and then proceed with forward demo test.
I'm familiar with entry/exit/risk parameters etc from my sports trading, it's just that in the Forex world I've got to find out where everything is again ;-)
Just downloaded MT5 (it won't let me download MT4? think they've taken it off the market for new customers) and getting used to the software.
I like Tradingview platform but for some reason my demo account doesn't give me the option to place trailing stops.

Thanks
  • #644
  • Feb 1, 2020 12:33pm Feb 1, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting marwood
{quote} Thanks viptrading. I managed to find csv data files on Yahoo and Google finance so I can do something with those. I like to do a backtest first just to see if I'm somewhere near or way off target, and then proceed with forward demo test. I'm familiar with entry/exit/risk parameters etc from my sports trading, it's just that in the Forex world I've got to find out where everything is again ;-) Just downloaded MT5 (it won't let me download MT4? think they've taken it off the market for new customers) and getting used to the software. I like...
No problem good luck.
  • #645
  • Feb 4, 2020 12:24pm Feb 4, 2020 12:24pm
Sure it does, the question is, can you FUND it high enough... Is it allowed to fund it so high?
And the biggest.... Do you know when to pull out? So one or the other... unlimited funds/limits OR know/guess when to pull out
Otherwise SWAN is coming towards you Many that started martingale forgot its nature along the way, assuming certain "n" won't happen before they make enough...
I would advise combinatorics, monte carlo simulations to check the highest N at which it fails and start with that.. A little clue... you might skip certain "n" and ride along from certain same-whatever series onwards, so to spare some "n"s If we are talking black/red analogy... max is like n=22? So maybe you start riding when/if see n=7 already or something BTW many assume max n is like much less than it is... n=12 can happen quite some times (relatively)
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #646
  • Feb 6, 2020 11:14pm Feb 6, 2020 11:14pm
This is 100% that you will lose money using martingale in long distance. You can be profitable for a week, month, year but the longer you use it the more probability of loss.
  • #647
  • Apr 13, 2020 2:38pm Apr 13, 2020 2:38pm
I'm demo testing many different versions of Ilan right now. One of them I liked would run on a FOREX.com demo account perfectly.. But the same exact EA on a Oanda demo would not run correctly. I kept getting FIFO violations blasted endlessly in the mail on the Oanda Mt4. I tried other martingale EA's on Oanda with no problem though.. Some Ilan's I tested seem to trade against the trend.. others seem to trade with the trend. Some Ilan's I've tested add positions using a multiplier when the open positions drawdown. Another Ilan I tested uses a multiplier and adds positions when there is an equity profit on all open positions Leveraging up with a trailing stop in-place to prevent any loss. I personally like the ones that trade with the trend though.
  • #648
  • Sep 1, 2020 11:49am Sep 1, 2020 11:49am
Quoting Rainy88
Anti-martingale (or pyramiding) really works, which means you add positions on winning trades instead that on losing ones.
Just looking at the Balance I recognized it.
I managed to write an EA that does exactly the same trades and performance.
Losses are rare but big.
On backtest there is a situation that the EA cannot survive.
However I think that's one of the best martingale base EAs.
At the moment there is a considerable DD on equity and it has not been updated since Jun 01
  • #649
  • Sep 1, 2020 12:20pm Sep 1, 2020 12:20pm
Baffling that in 2020 , the martingale system is still spoken about as a potential to base a system that you would want to use for a long term trading career.

Don’t take my word for it. Just look to the lack of evidence of any successful trader who has made a successful long term career in forex using this as their foundation.
  • #650
  • Sep 1, 2020 4:31pm Sep 1, 2020 4:31pm
Matingale sucks in my opinion..it will just blow your account. But i'm sure you know that now this is an old thread dates back to 2009...
  • #651
  • Dec 17, 2024 11:27pm Dec 17, 2024 11:27pm
Interesting that all the profiles sharing their Martingale trading history don't seem to be public anymore.
  • #652
  • Dec 20, 2024 12:08am Dec 20, 2024 12:08am
In theory, martingale sounds good, but it is really a fast track to wiping up your account. It might work doubling down the losses but if you are on a losing streak, then what? Wiped out, no question.
  • #653
  • Apr 11, 2025 6:18am Apr 11, 2025 6:18am
I prefer the
The anti-Martingale, or reverse Martingale..theres lots of info on the web
  • #654
  • Apr 12, 2025 2:12pm Apr 12, 2025 2:12pm
Hello,

Martingale systems require you to have a large account given the amount of trades you will need to support when things go wrong.
If you have enough to cover the margin, this can provide positive results.
  • #655
  • May 25, 2026 5:33am May 25, 2026 5:33am
Quoting hanover
@ybfjax: You talk as if Maat's approach (grids, averaging, martingale, ....) is the only possible way to trade. Just because he apparently can't find directional or behavioral biases in the market doesn't necessarily mean that a more knowledgeable trader can't. You ask: Could you please provide an example of a mechanical trading system that only uses single position per [trade]cycle to achieve positive expectancy? I say mechanical because a system that has a hidden or discretionary component cannot be forward-tested transparently or independently...
May I know if it is free of indicator?
  • #656
  • Last Post: May 27, 2026 10:29pm May 27, 2026 10:29pm
This will blow your acct sooner. it is same to add losing position. the risk level increase all the way.
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