then retrace via ECB and up again till 1.164x ahead of European Council where will take place the vote of Van der Leyden's plan
well at least this is how I'm picturing things
1
Swing Trading only - All Markets
Bought Long in EURGBP @ 0.876x TP1 0.8890x TP2 0.89.8x TP3 0.913x STP 0.865x Decent combo on H4 imo {image}
Final target @ 0.913x of ongoing swing should be a walk in the park once it breaks up. I have nothing in between except a micro res @ 0.905x so let's see.
- #223
- May 28, 2020 7:21pm May 28, 2020 7:21pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
{quote} After some chop these last days, EURGBP is finally hinting imminent break up now. Final target @ 0.913x of ongoing swing should be a walk in the park once it breaks up. I have nothing in between except a micro res @ 0.905x so let's see. {image}
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #224
- May 29, 2020 5:05am May 29, 2020 5:05am
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
{quote} While I do put trust in your predictions (sceptical of many) thee, or my cycle has not been completed, not to place doubt, I'm quite in the middle, but I see you use a dynamic stop so following up would not be a problem 93488 is my daily, 89473 is the 4hr break, GL,
{quote} clearing second target in EURGBP @ 0.897xfrom 0.876x +210 pips
{quote} After some chop these last days, EURGBP is finally hinting imminent break up now. Final target @ 0.913x of ongoing swing should be a walk in the park once it breaks up. I have nothing in between except a micro res @ 0.905x so let's see. {image}
& 0.905x micro res
90.5x has attracted scalpers, still thinking it's a soft res, will see
- #226
- May 29, 2020 6:55am May 29, 2020 6:55am
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
{quote} yes trailing STP each time swing reachs one target. For EURGBP, swing's STP was moved @ 0.883x when price cleared 0.897x : {quote} I don't switch to a tight STP after clearing one target because I'm still, or at least supposed to be, riding a swing, I need to let the swing "breath", it's not scalping. In a nutshell, I always try to trail STP @ level that hints or marks a reversal. {quote} break up in EURGBP
Just looking at the GJ, swings on the 30 min a little extreme, all in all my previous positions may have been a better bet to hold a little longer but I had to put the brakes on somewhere, Friday market today, all positions will close before the weekend.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
{quote} 1.090x/1.089x
{quote} Second target of ST swing 1.105x
There is a break down point capping the flow @ 1.11456 in EURUSD, it looks pointless to hold for 1.115x, just for a few pips more
=> Clearing final target of ST swing in EURUSD @ 1.114x from 1.089x
+250 pips
Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = + 250 pips
Realized PnL = + 100 pips @ TP1 + 160 pips @ TP2 + 250 pips @ TP3
Only remaining trade in EURUSD :
MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x
TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP I will try to mirror/hedge that MT play by a ST retrace play by next thursday/wenesday ahead of thursday's ECB.
Have a max retrace @ 1.095x for ECB flows so far.
- #228
- May 29, 2020 2:51pm May 29, 2020 2:51pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
All closed, sorry If I've hijacked the thread a little Rep, will stop posting, feeling like I'm tarnishing a good informative thread, you did say it was more of a journal, been great chewing over and your analysis, well do I need to say anymore, good luck, you deserve it, you put the work in, Detector, have a great weekend and then some,
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
USDTHB failed to clear last target (33.5x) of a large swing up from 30.5x and looks set to retrace to 32.1x, 31.6x and 31.2x (best value's entry is @ 32.5x) {image}
{quote} Chokdeeeeeee ! First target in USDTHB cleared@ 32.18
Second target hit in USDTHB @ 31.67
from 32.5x Max drawdown = 0
=> 32.5x to 31.6x is a big move : it's equivalent to 300 pips in EURUSD for instance.
We had fresh news from Bank of Thailand today, Mathee Supapongse has hinted further easing following concerns about recent appreciation of Thailand Baht.
It's not a surprise, quick reminder :
On Top, historically, US FED is usually Thai CB's benchmark which says a lot as FED has by far the loosest monetary policy in the world (only Risk holds USD at current levels)
I'm not looking for longs in USDTHB neither to play the reversal in Thailand Baht as I'm already long EURTHB from 34.8x :
{quote} Regarding EURTHB, I just pulled the trigger for the MT/LT swing , a very very long play/ride hopefully Bought EURTHB @ 34.8x TP1 36.8x TP2 39.0x STP 33.8x {image} insane call
{quote} {quote} There is a break down point capping the flow @ 1.11456 in EURUSD, it looks pointless to hold for 1.115x, just for a few pips more => Clearing final target of ST swing in EURUSD @ 1.114x from 1.089x +250 pips
It's a double break down point as 2 candles broke down at that level previously. It had already capped the flow at end of March, and it's doing it again now.
However, last friday closed bullish by holding 1.109x.
And last break up in H4 @ 1.1108x is currently holding the flows meaning bulls are still there. Another attack of current highs should wipe out all the bears/scalpers loaded from the highs : bulls are in deep profit while a few ticks above current high will put bears under water. It's very likely bears who jumped in are now trailing their STP @ BE.
Meaning high of the week looks not set to me. We have 3 full days before ECB (expected bearish as all CBs ww).
Resistances I have above :
- highs of the 2 breakdown candles @ 1.1181 and @ 1.1208
- reversal point @ 1.121x
- extrem I have for current flow up is @ 1.1274 (all above should be locked via upcoming ECB)
If I closed my ST longs last friday, I'm still holding my MT longs :
[...] Only remaining trade in EURUSD : MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x1.075xtrailed @ 1.088x I will try to mirror/hedge that MT play by a ST retrace play by next thursday/wenesday ahead of thursday's ECB. Have a max retrace @ 1.095x for ECB flows so far.
A short lived wick in the 1.127x would be fantastic as it will make me clear my MT swing's TP2.
To wrap up :
Ongoing trades in EURUSD :
MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x
TP2 Pending trades in EURUSD :
ST retrace/hedge play : Pending Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x
Bought Long in EURGBP @ 0.876x TP1 0.8890x TP2 0.89.8x TP3 0.913x STP 0.865x Decent combo on H4 imo {image}
{quote} clearing second target in EURGBP @ 0.897x
=> remaining longs cleared @ 0.890x from 0.876x
+ 140 pips
for the remainingMax drawdown = - 70 pips
Max drawup = + 290 pips
Realized PnL = + 130 pips @TP1 + 210 pips @ TP2 + 140 pips @ trailed stp
That was a good one overall, despite a disappointing outcome for last target :
{quote} After some chop these last days, EURGBP is finally hinting imminent break up now. Final target @ 0.913x of ongoing swing should be a walk in the park once it breaks up. I have nothing in between except a micro res @ 0.905x so let's see. {image}
0.905x was not a micro resistance ... it was the resistance
{quote} Bears sitting at the highs in EURUSD were wiped out as expected. New highs. {quote} Intraday scalpers popping up and selling first res @ 1.118x. Looks uneventful to me.
=> normally scalpers have tp @ that break up point are now trailing their stp @ BE, meaning 1.118x should not manage to hold another attack, 1.12 handle looks open now
- #235
- Jun 2, 2020 8:54am Jun 2, 2020 8:54am
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
... Ongoing trades in EURUSD : MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x1.128xchanged to 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP1.075xtrailed @ 1.088x Pending trades in EURUSD : ST retrace/hedge play : Pending Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x {image}
Why would bears swingers jump in so ahead of ECB when they can just let the flow grinds higher till statement or press conference to get a better entry ?
my thought is there are only scalpers there, no swingers yet, nothing serious
{quote} Rep, looking for this myself, short the Dow, entry off the 2hr chart, may or may nor, if ma's are anything to go by we could be down with the crossing, GL.
Hello replicating, could you explain to me why to cut your long position on eurgbp, I have a target at 0.911 .. Does it come from the speed and the amplitude of the correction 0.905 - 0.889? Sorry for my mediocre english i'm french
Because I thought EURGBP was going to lose its support following GBP's strength all across the board. It finally hasn't and has only extended the lows as the long wick shows (cf. chart). You are right : TA wise, I shouldn't have closed this one. Your target is good
as long as this suport holds. 
PS : I'm french too, I see what you mean, sometimes I can only say 10% of what I think
{quote} Hey thomi, Because I thought EURGBP was going to lose its support following GBP's strength all across the board. It finally hasn't and has only extended the lows as the long wick shows (cf. chart). You are right : TA wise, I shouldn't have closed this one. Your target is good
- #240
- Jun 2, 2020 1:21pm Jun 2, 2020 1:21pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,006 Posts
{quote} ah and if I were you, I would keep one eye on 0.896x on D1 TF. If it caps the flow, that should start to put you on the back foot. Well at least, that would be what I would feel. GL in any case. {image}
sorry but i don't understand how you trace your sh rejection? Besides, what do you mean by sh rejection? Is this the last low point of the daily rise?
