Swing Trading only - All Markets

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{quote} * Hikes probabilities for 2022 jumping to the highs and above https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html# +25bp in March jumping to 17%+ +25bp (minimum) in June jumping above 65% * US10Y engulfing at the lows * EURUSD losing 1.154x {quote} => All aligning for a flush in EURUSD Supports discussed last month : {quote} - 1.149x Major MT Break up / 50% MT retracement (too many retails have it to me) - 1.146x continuation up from July 2020 triggered by EU Bonds-like fact - 1.137x/9x -...

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{quote} * Hikes probabilities for 2022 jumping to the highs and above https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html# +25bp in March jumping to 17%+ +25bp (minimum) in June jumping above 65% * US10Y engulfing at the lows * EURUSD losing 1.154x {quote} => All aligning for a flush in EURUSD Supports discussed last month : {quote} - 1.149x Major MT Break up / 50% MT retracement (too many retails have it to me) - 1.146x continuation up from July 2020 triggered by EU Bonds-like fact - 1.137x/9x...

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Very expensive entries to enter short, r:r wise All les coquins entered short on the pullback to 1.157x after the CPI release (basically they unload all their longs, and swap to shorts) If your MM allows, pending short 1.151x TP1 1.146x TP2 1.139x TP3 1.129x is the play to ride the exhaustion move. Otherwise you just let it go, and front run/corner ECB with the big hands later when ECB Q meeting appears in the horizon

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[...] TA wise, still to the long side, you simply track markets taking back any broken SL in the small TF, then jump in on the retrace to that SL

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{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x

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{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x

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[...] To the long side :FA wise, you either wait for => ECB Q meeting [poor call to me] => Next monthly round of EZ inflation numbers (which will start next friday but core of the releases will only come one week later, just a couple of days before ECB Q meeting) [better call] => CL's (& Weidmann's) speech(es) scheduled next friday in Frankfurt, in order to track an early hint of what could deliver ECB in 2 weeks. CBs always try to make things as smooth as possible for markets so normally they avoid making u-turn during their monetary...

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[...] TA wise, still to the long side, you simply track markets taking back any broken SL in the small TF, then jump in on the retrace to that SL

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{quote} resistance 1.137x checked support 1.129x more or less holding so far {quote} CL didn't trigger any tightening expectations and still keep cold showering any hikes expectations for 2022 Inflation numbers will. We had another insane number today from Germany (manufacturing prices 3.8% mom !!!). Core of the releases coming in a week. CL has just missed the window to me. Even European Commission disagrees with her 2022 forecast. {quote} => Longs were filled @ 1.131x Tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close...

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{quote} Weidmann speaking, clearly disagrees with CL ECB is a lone wolf now in the world of CBs Are markets going to corner ECB ? TA wise, 1.129x not holding any more on intraday, still tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close though Will close longs below

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{quote} resistance 1.137x checked support 1.129x more or less holding so far {quote} CL didn't trigger any tightening expectations and still keep cold showering any hikes expectations for 2022 Inflation numbers will. We had another insane number today from Germany (manufacturing prices 3.8% mom !!!). Core of the releases coming in a week. CL has just missed the window to me. Even European Commission disagrees with her 2022 forecast. {quote} => Longs were filled @ 1.131x Tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close

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{quote} Weidmann speaking, clearly disagrees with CL ECB is a lone wolf now in the world of CBs Are markets going to corner ECB ? TA wise, 1.129x not holding any more on intraday, still tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close though Will close longs below

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{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x

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{quote} US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet heading to yearly highs (1.7xx), and probably yearly highs + 25bp ( ~ 1.9x), pre-covid range {image}

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{quote} TA wise, 1.129x not holding has unlocked 1.122xNot trading it though (untradable r:r wise to me), will try to load longs late in the week in the 1.122x/1.118x area, ahead of EZ inflation releases & ECB new inflations projections (which should be revised up strongly (last European Commission inflation forecast for 2022 is 30% above last ECB projection for reference...

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{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x

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{quote} TA wise, 1.129x not holding has unlocked 1.122x Not trading it though (untradable r:r wise to me), will try to load longs late in the week in the 1.122x/1.118x area, ahead of EZ inflation releases & ECB new inflations projections (which should be revised up strongly (last European Commission inflation forecast for 2022 is 30% above last ECB projection for reference). Next week, we have last shot of US inflation numbers (PCE which is FED preferred measure of inflation) + some outdated FOMC minutes (because meeting happened...

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{quote} 1.122x checked as W close augured {quote} 1.122x checked as support as well Another great prints today from EZ on the growth front. Tomorrow, last shot of US inflation numbers. CPI has already done the job so not expecting much more than a short-lived knee jerk reaction in case of an overshoot. In fact, expecting big hands to start shifting from the short side to the long side from tomorrow onwards, to position for next week's EZ inflation numbers & ECB Q meeting & projections for 2022.

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