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What are the minimum requirements for a Holy Grail?

  • #21
  • Edited 9:06pm Jan 6, 2018 12:31pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting Mingary
Again, I beg to differ......Do I need to define what a legend is or explain that playing the forex market is essentially gambling?
In some respects I agree with you. Unless a system is infallible, i.e. generates a 100% win rate, then nothing is completely guaranteed. If there is a market condition, rare or otherwise, that can cause a single losing outcome, then it is theoretically possible for that same condition to occur repeatedly, just as it is theoretically possible to roll a 6 on a die 100 times in a row. Hence it is up to the trader -- and the casino owner -- to devise a satisfactory risk model (including max VAR per event) wherein the probability of ruin is sufficiently small that, to all practical purposes, it can be ignored.

Moreover, all trading strategies are ultimately based on the ASSUMPTION that some observed aspect of past market behavior will continue to repeat itself sufficiently often, in the future, to allow its systematic exploitation. Or conversely, they make the assumption that the aspect in question is robust enough not to be eroded, however the character of the market might change over the course of time. (For example, will amateurs continue to place their stoplosses just outside recent swing points?). Likewise in that respect, there are no absolute guarantees.

Those are the kinds of risks that even the most successful trader -- whether wittingly or not -- must embrace.

Positive expectancy is positive expectancy; it doesn't necessarily reflect infallibility. I find it curious how the term Holy Grail tends to mean a theoretically infallible system (implying a 100% win rate) when talked about in professional circles, and merely positive expectancy when it is discussed on trading forums. I see that this discussion has now devolved into a side argument over whether "elusive" should mean difficult or impossible to attain. My experience is that semantic arguments are seldom satisfactorily resolved...... especially on trading forums. LOL

Quote
A notion derived from religion, therefore based on superstitions and lies.
That makes me smile. If the devious little boy (see post #6) was to ask the sage "which religion is true?" then I expect that the latter would respond "the one that is not man-made".
  • #22
  • Edited 7:29pm Jan 6, 2018 1:23pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} The minimal requirements for a Holy Grail is only one. Your belief in your edge. An edge can be defined as a probability of one thing happening over another. If you believe in your edge, you will apply it consistently over a significant period of trades or a significant period of time to get the expected results.

I have often said, a person is better off trading incorrect assumptions that he completely believes in, rather than trading correct assumptions that he does not believe in. Sure, trading incorrect assumptions will ultimately take one down the road to ruin. But let's look at the other situation:

Suppose a trade trades a system/method where he does not believe in its underlying assumptions. He takes 5 trades. All losers at 10 pips. So he has lost a total of 50 pips. Now the trader begins to question the validity of the system/method. He can understand why the system/method would give the signals that it did. The next trade entry appears, but the trader chooses not to take it. You guessed it, this trade is a winner. A winner to the tune of 500 pips. So after 6 trades, the system/method is net positive 450 pips. But the trader is net negative 50 pips. The trader is now a "believer" again (of course he is not a real believer in the system/method; he only believes in positive results) and takes the next signal. Bam! Another 10 pip loss. This trader's lack of real belief results in inconsistency. Inconsistency of implementation of the system/method will ultimately take one down the road to ruin as well. Therefore, if ruin is the end result in both cases, you might as well believe in what you are doing on your way there.

Of course, if you have correct market assumptions and believe completely in them, instead of heading down the road to ruin, you can head up the path to success...(see what I did there? )
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23
  • Jan 6, 2018 3:37pm Jan 6, 2018 3:37pm
whatever system is, I believe that main factor is trader itself and therefore s/he is holy grail. trader holds all crucial elements of successful (holy grail) trading: knowlidge, discipline, patience and ability to control emotions. lack of any of these elements removes status "holy grail" to any trading system.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #24
  • Jan 6, 2018 5:10pm Jan 6, 2018 5:10pm
The best way to approach the Holy Grail issue without "knowing what you don't know", is to classify and eliminate all posible variations of strategies one by one empirically & by yourself (nobody is going to tell you exactly). To make it short (just my opinion on the Holy Grail):

- It must have VERY low risk (LOW absolute & Max DD, low chance of black swan).
- High enough sharpe ratio to exceed the transaction costs in the long run.
- It lets you use the power of compounding.
- It is roboust enough to endure the changes in the market and price structure. It is so roboust it may work on many markets.

That's it, you don't need more for a Holy Grail.

To make it long:

1) Alpha Models: You cannot predict the direction or duration of any price series with 100% accuracy, it doesn't matter what kind of entry you use, the reason is that the market is unfolding every moment into the future, no absolute direction. There are better models than others, quants use a calculation called "R-Squared" to measure the power of their Alpha (you can be rich with an R-Squared of 0.02). Other than that if you have insider information, latency arbitrage, or your own time machine you don't even need a risk model, just put everything into it.

2) Risk Model: Knowing that you cannot predict the future with 100% acc, you must accept that price will go against your positions sooner or later, how will you handle them? Here is where most creativity must go. People use martingales, scaling in, scaling out, small SL, loose SL, all kind of position sizing/ recovery models. Which ones work and which crash?

3) Transaction Models: Knowing your predictive power and risk you must then take into consideration the costs of the trades. Some very "profitable" strategies are stomped by commisions.

The closest to the Holy Grail stands in between these three pilars, people say there is none, and they may be right (if they refer to predictive power), but how would you know?. There may even be dozens of Holy Grails waiting, but most people waste their time trying to predict future price.
  • #25
  • Jan 6, 2018 5:40pm Jan 6, 2018 5:40pm
another loser response above my post. getting easier to spot these
  • #26
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:13pm Jan 6, 2018 7:13pm
"Holy" implies divine intervention which we are probably not expecting in our trading. Sure we might pray but if this is your only strategy then....

"Grail" in the context of trading implies some type of abundance.

It seems simplistic but what we are looking for is a trading method that meets the individual trader's definition of abundance. If we translate abundance in to return on investment (ROI) then we can come up with something specific. One way is to use some type of market benchmark such as the annualized returns, 5 year returns or longer returns of the Dow Jones, Russell 5000 Index, S&P 500 or other market performance. I personally use the average S&P returns which over the long term averages around 10% +. So for me the "Holy Grail" is a method I use that beats the returns of the S&P 500 over the long term. This is realistic and achievable. If I can't beat that then I should stop trading and invest in the S&P 500.

So in summary the minimum requirement of a trader's "Holy Grail" must be defined by the individual trader as a minimum ROI over a certain period of time.
  • #27
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:28pm Jan 6, 2018 7:28pm
here are few definitions:

1. trading charts from the left side. aka hind sight

2. teaching trading to gullibles and pretending to be full time trader
  • #28
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:30pm Jan 6, 2018 7:30pm
to me holy grail is being consistently profitable month after month.
  • #29
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:33pm Jan 6, 2018 7:33pm
Quoting sharingan9
Those that have found near perfect systems like me will never show people the holy grail without some sort of compensation be it monetary or other satisfactions such as amusement derived from perhaps dropping hints at the holy grail and watching others follow these hints and discover the holy grail or come to their own conclusions. Those that say the holygrail does not exist are those that comprise the endless sea of forex losers that flow in and out of the market that have lost, lose and will continue to lose money. Their bruised egos won't allow...

"Don't look now, but you may even spot a few of these losers in this very thread"

I think everyone in this thread knows who is the only loser in this thread and it's the one making unsubstantiated claims and the one that made the above statement.
  • #30
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:46pm Jan 6, 2018 7:46pm
Could this be a “holy” grail? ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5AE03D72-409A-467A-8F6E-76CD168A9AA1.jpeg Size: 133 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #31
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:49pm Jan 6, 2018 7:49pm
1. Claim you have the holy grail, show no proof and call other's losers = COWARD, LIAR
2. Claim you have the holy grail, show proof and call other's losers = BULLY
3. Claim you have the holy grail, show proof and share with others = HERO
  • #32
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:04pm Jan 6, 2018 8:04pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Those that have found near perfect systems like me-Prove it noob without some sort of compensation be it monetary or other satisfactions - What a joke noob comprise the endless sea of forex losers- you included noob They are not hard to spot- look who is talking We have all spotted your post as being the most "loser"worthy You have shown no ability, made no calls and have no TE to back up any of your loser claims {quote} What garbage. None of the people you sighted are traders. Think before you write. This is trading discussion not...
I stated earlier that trading is not my main source of income. I run an online lead generation business for finance companies. However i do trade from time to time with a high degree of accuracy. i dont have sufficient trade history to show. give me a year and i will show you how to trade successfuly if you need help. in fact i will set up a live explorer in feb 2018 when i decide to trade more frequently.

As for the people I mentioned they were examples of real businesses that I was showing the ill informed Mingary the gentleman i was educating ealier on the definition of elusive and how holy grail is applied to more secular topics.

Also yes i do not make my living only from trading. I do poltical events i was a donor to the 2008 and 2016 Hilary Clinton campaigns. I love Hilary she has been to my house a few times.

Trading has always fascinated me though so i worked hard over the years testing and finally discovered a holy grail. i cant prove that claim yet but i can prove everything else if you want. i can make a youtube video showing you my face identification, pictures hanging on my wall, various business/finacial data reports of my lead gen business. let me know if your interested in that. Not to sound like i am bragging i am just trying to be transparent. I have achieved great success and I am not just making things up.
  • #33
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:10pm Jan 6, 2018 8:10pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} I stated earlier that trading is not my main source of income. I run an online lead generation business for finance companies. However i do trade from time to time with a high degree of accuracy. i dont have sufficient trade history to show. give me a year and i will show you how to trade successfuly if you need help. in fact i will set up a live explorer in feb 2018 when i decide to trade more frequently. As for the people I mentioned they were examples of real businesses that I was showing the ill informed Mingary the gentleman i was educating...
"i do trade from time to" time with a high degree of accuracy." How many trades? Show some proof. You don't have to reveal your "Holy Grail".

"I love Hilary she has been to my house a few times." Do you know what the definition of a pathological liar is?
  • #34
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:16pm Jan 6, 2018 8:16pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} "i do trade from time to" time with a high degree of accuracy." How many trades? Show some proof. You don't have to reveal your "Holy Grail". "I love Hilary she has been to my house a few times." Do you know what the definition of a pathological liar is?
Yes i am aware of the term. I am not a pathological liar. I cannot provide proof of my tradong claims to be honest. not until a year from now when i can apply this to my perosnal trading account and not my business. i ja e a business forex account that had other peoples moneys involved so I do not have the permission of the other imvestors to show this information. I will be setting up a live personal trading account soon anf i will set up a trade explorer feb 2018.

Hilary Clinton is a very good friend of mine. I have donatd to her campaign i have had fund raisers for her as well. I can prove this is a youtube video if youd like. not a problem.
  • #35
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:20pm Jan 6, 2018 8:20pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Yes i am aware of the term. I am not a pathological liar. I cannot provide proof of my tradong claims to be honest. not until a year from now when i can apply this to my perosnal trading account and not my business. i ja e a business forex account that had other peoples moneys involved so I do not have the permission of the other imvestors to show this information. I will be setting up a live personal trading account soon anf i will set up a trade explorer feb 2018. Hilary Clinton is a very good friend of mine. I have donatd to her campaign...
It would be quite difficult via a You Tube video to prove your identity and your relation to HC. We all know what you are. You are a sad individual and I hope you get help.
  • #36
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:26pm Jan 6, 2018 8:26pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Hilary Clinton is a very good friend of mine. I have donatd to her campaign i have had fund raisers for her as well. I can prove this is a youtube video if youd like. not a problem.

So you lose your money from methods other than trading? Should have spent it on English lessons.
Thanks I do this often.
  • #37
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:29pm Jan 6, 2018 8:29pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} It would be quite difficult via a You Tube video to prove your identity and your relation to HC. We all know what you are. You are a sad individual and I hope you get help.
My friend I am not joking. I can show you my face, my id, pictures woth hilary on my wall in my house all in a 2 minute youtube video but it sees youre not interested.
  • #38
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:32pm Jan 6, 2018 8:32pm
What are the minimum requirements for a Holy Grail?

An efficient market...

Quoting sharingan9
{quote} My friend I am not joking. I can show you my face, my id, pictures woth hilary on my wall in my house all in a 2 minute youtube video but it sees youre not interested.
LOL! Friends with Hillary?

Hillary has no friends...
  • #39
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:34pm Jan 6, 2018 8:34pm
Quoting charterjoe
{quote} So you lose your money from methods other than trading? Should have spent it on English lessons.
I apologize for the typos im on my cell phone working out in my gym. Ive done very well for impoverished communities and under developed neighborhoods in the state of New York and some countries in the carribean. Have i lost money? sure. But i have made so much more than I have lost and i reinvest in humanitarian projects. but enough about me. lets get back to trading
  • #40
  • Jan 6, 2018 8:35pm Jan 6, 2018 8:35pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} OK Huma Abedin go for it. LOL.
Okay my friend i will produce a video and i will post ot here on this thread soon
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