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Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

  • #61
  • Nov 6, 2021 2:51pm Nov 6, 2021 2:51pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi gepards! Welcome to my thread! I'm very happy you join me! I have no experience with triangle arbitrage (I had in fact, but failed). But I have a lot of experience with two way. On crypto exchanges there are few there the futures are nominated in BTC, not in USD like on forex. So, due to math there are no liquidation price ever on 1x short. Also, you will earn positive funding every 8 hours (in most cases, very rare the funding will be negative). That called perpetual contracts. Because there they are life time. Next, there are normal...
Yes I would like to find out more .Thanks
  • #62
  • Nov 6, 2021 3:34pm Nov 6, 2021 3:34pm
Quoting ryuryu
There are several strategies that can exploit that "issue". If you are and other people are interested with that I can tell you how to manage that kind of trades.
  • #63
  • Nov 7, 2021 1:18am Nov 7, 2021 1:18am
Quoting ryuryu
Here we have EMA 8 low waiting to fill limit buy. If price will continue to drop there is EMA 100 waiting for another order. {image}If check 12H tf, then we see strong EMA 50 lower, and that the price bounced back from EMA 8 low. Anything can happen for sure, but I'll wait for any buy signal on 1m TF and run fast trades.
BTC Long +1.14%

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I have opened that long at EMA 8 low, but placed the take profit near the EMA 50 (red line). But in fact it was ok if TP was at EMA 8 high, then the profit x2. But no regrets.

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Observer effect
  • #64
  • Nov 7, 2021 9:07am Nov 7, 2021 9:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Short BTC at H4 above EMA 8 tp EMA8 low , still risk because above EMA 100, Got out some profit .I practice base on Ryan chart all EMA decision , some candle size and stoch . Thanks Ryan for your thread , I have chance to learn and hopefully can contribute some of my learning.
  • #65
  • Nov 7, 2021 11:43am Nov 7, 2021 11:43am
Quoting ryuryu
On crypto exchanges there are few there the futures are nominated in BTC, not in USD like on forex. So, due to math there are no liquidation price ever on 1x short. Also, you will earn positive funding every 8 hours (in most cases, very rare the funding will be negative). That called perpetual contracts. Because there they are life time. Next, there are normal (let's call them this way). They have expiration date. But, there are no funding, no negative no positive. Sooo... this is pretty unique situation which you can't find on forex ever. There...
played around with Binance futures - BTCUSDT. What I did:

1. Purchased some BTC
2. Opened Futures trading account and moved that BTC to it
3. Opened SELL deal with no leverage (1x) with size 370.12 USDT and paid commission -0.14804596 USDT

There are Funding Fees every 8 hours. Received already 1 funding fee: +0.13922376 USDT

BTC price moved up. My SELL position is in loses -0.81% but hey.. my account currency is BTC so BTC value grew by 0.81% and here it is break-even.

Here account currency BTC and futures SELL deal works as a hedge. No matter what direction BTC go.

Will keep opening this position and see how much Funding Fees will get in 1 week.

One confusion for me... I was expected to see that transaction commissions is in BTC not in USDT and somehow did not understand what is "Single asset mode" and "Multiple asset mode" for margin. Now trading with "Multiple asset mode". Was not possible to open a deal with "Single asset mode"... ok this is my 1st Futures deal with crypto
  • #66
  • Edited 12:34pm Nov 7, 2021 12:05pm | Edited 12:34pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} played around with Binance futures - BTCUSDT. What I did: 1. Purchased some BTC 2. Opened Futures trading account and moved that BTC to it 3. Opened SELL deal with no leverage (1x) with size 370.12 USDT and paid commission -0.14804596 USDT There are Funding Fees every 8 hours. Received already 1 funding fee: +0.13922376 USDT BTC price moved up. My SELL position is in loses -0.81% but hey.. my account currency is BTC so BTC value grew by 0.81% and here it is break-even. Here account currency BTC and futures SELL deal works as a hedge. No...
Yeah, you have found that magic setup on crypto. There are no such a thing with forex brokers.
Now look not at binance, but bybit for example.
Then you can have not only positive funding every 8 hours, but also you will have a rebate for using limit orders. So if you open your position using limit order you will not pay, you will get paid.
Same if you close it.
So. For shorts you have to use limit buy or sell to get your rebate. You have to use perpetual futures for shorts to have positive funding every 8 hours and you have to use limit orders for buy/sell with ordinary futures for longs with then not to pay for holding your position.

So you made 2 mistakes (but you are on the right track )
1. It is better to buy and later withdraw smth like XRP. Because the transaction fee is about 25 cent only. BTC transaction fee (or ETH) now is just impossible.
2. Wrong exchange. You need exchange that pay for limit order and pay positive funding for shorts and futures nominated in BTC.

But you absolutely right about math

P.S. Now tell me is there any reason to trade crypto on forex?

UPD:

long btc +0.23%
Observer effect
  • #67
  • Nov 7, 2021 1:42pm Nov 7, 2021 1:42pm
I think with forex we have leverage and less risk our capital.
  • #68
  • Edited Nov 8, 2021 12:30am Nov 7, 2021 10:11pm | Edited Nov 8, 2021 12:30am
Quoting munchie
I think with forex we have leverage and less risk our capital.
Differences:
1. Futures nominated in $ (that make no sense on bull market), not in BTC
2. 50x leverage vs 100x leverage
3. Positive limit order rebates vs commissions
4. Positive funding on 1x short vs negative swaps
5. No swap on futures vs negative swaps
6. No liquidation price on 1x short with perpetual inverse futures vs standard margin requirements and stop out levels
7. Opportunity to hedge perpetual inverse futures shorts with inverse futures longs

So you have at least 7 differences in compare that make trading crypto with forex broker pointless & much more expensive.
Observer effect
  • #69
  • Nov 8, 2021 12:10am Nov 8, 2021 12:10am
Morning, gang!

Let's rock!
Observer effect
  • #70
  • Nov 8, 2021 2:57am Nov 8, 2021 2:57am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Yeah, you have found that magic setup on crypto. There are no such a thing with forex brokers. Now look not at binance, but bybit for example. Then you can have not only positive funding every 8 hours, but also you will have a rebate for using limit orders. So if you open your position using limit order you will not pay, you will get paid. Same if you close it. So. For shorts you have to use limit buy or sell to get your rebate. You have to use perpetual futures for shorts to have positive funding every 8 hours and you have to use limit...
tnx for the answers!

will try another exchange.

regarding current Binance future deal -- received allready 3 positive Funding Fees because of my short position. BTC skyrocked up, position is -6% from my account but... account is in BTC so I now just enjoy profits from Funding Fees:

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If all funding fees will be like those already received then the estimated yearly profit (without compounding) would be ~42%. But as I see from 14 days funding fees history available then there will be negative days also:

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maybe profit target there could be 30% +/-10% yearly (without compounding) what is still good if monthly compounding used:

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  • #71
  • Nov 8, 2021 3:03am Nov 8, 2021 3:03am
Quoting ryuryu
Now tell me is there any reason to trade crypto on forex? UPD: long btc +0.23%
No reason. Crypto must be traded in crypto world.

And actually blockchain technology is far better for any finance instrument trading and forex/stocks trading will move to crypto infrastructure in near 2-3 years. Because of smart contracts its more secure place to make deals.

See here stocks allready reflected to crypto - trade stocks 24x7.
  • #72
  • Edited 4:25am Nov 8, 2021 4:10am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting gepards
{quote} No reason. Crypto must be traded in crypto world. And actually blockchain technology is far better for any finance instrument trading and forex/stocks trading will move to crypto infrastructure in near 2-3 years. Because of smart contracts its more secure place to make deals. See here stocks allready reflected to crypto - trade stocks 24x7.
There are some crypto exchanges where you can hold (lock) your crypto on your wallet while trading. So the exchange just offer the engine to find buyers and sellers. But they are not popular and there are no volume. But on exchanges like binance there are a lot of volume but huge risk because your assets allocated in their wallets. May be sooner people will understand that there are a lot of new opportunities how to use blockchain technologies to reduce risk...

BTC long +0.53%
It is almost near all time high, so today it is too risky to go long. And too risky to go short too. Anyway, if you are in BTC you are x1 long by default, so for example I have earned >7% since yesterday without any trading, just because the price jumps higher.

As example to lock the $ profit you can go x1 short on perpetual futures. If price will continue go higher you will earn positive funding every 8 hours and will not lose your deposit in $. If it will bounce back and go lower you will earn BTC. That is the beauty of crypto. Win-win situation, which you can't find on forex ever. That's why I have split my deposit to 2: one on forex and one on crypto. If the market will turn to bear then it will be possible to short it even on forex, because your assets will be locked in USD.
Observer effect
  • #73
  • Nov 8, 2021 4:34am Nov 8, 2021 4:34am
Long XAU +4.16%

Classic vol + delta trade
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Observer effect
  • #74
  • Nov 8, 2021 4:51am Nov 8, 2021 4:51am
Quoting gepards
maybe profit target there could be 30% +/-10% yearly (without compounding)
exported BTCUSDT Funding rates history and made some Excel Pivot - here it is (strting capital 1000 usd):

Attached Image

So was only 2 months where was negative. All the rest positive. Yearly profit might be from 15% to 30%..(this year 28% allready).

If want to go long with BTC then futures is an effective way how to add 15-30% to your BTC account yearly.
  • #75
  • Edited 7:16am Nov 8, 2021 5:17am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting gepards
{quote} exported BTCUSDT Funding rates history and made some Excel Pivot - here it is (strting capital 1000 usd): {image} So was only 2 months where was negative. All the rest positive. Yearly profit might be from 15% to 30%..(this year 28% allready). If want to go long with BTC then futures is an effective way how to add 15-30% to your BTC account yearly.
The main feature of that funding is to lock you profit in $. Second is to hedge. Funding itself... you can use Bitfinex funding. I can tell you what bot to use (I have found great one, it is written on Go language, you need linux server to run it). You can earn a lot with no position (no trading) ever

Attached Image


If with no compounding (but bot will use compounding), it is +7% per year.

XAU long +1.03%

UPD
gepards, check your inbox, I have found that bot and sent you a link to github

UPD
long xau +1.84%
long xau +4.82%
long xau +1.53%
Observer effect
  • #76
  • Nov 8, 2021 7:22am Nov 8, 2021 7:22am
Long XAU +8.37% in 2 trades

I'm done for today.

Stats for today
Forex: +23.62%
Crypto: +0.53%


P.S. CLOSED #$%^& TOO EARLY HAHA
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Observer effect
  • #77
  • Edited 7:51am Nov 8, 2021 7:32am | Edited 7:51am
LAST XAU LONG +1.51% (I promise)

Attached Image


Could not miss that BEAUTY

Attached Image


UPD:
And really LAST XAU long +1.66%

 

  1. . It drop lower asian high from 2x ADR
  2. Delta was -208
  3. Vol was 556
  4. Candle size >0.1 ADR

Attached Image

  1. lime = reverse candle and the price is higher x2 ADR from EMA
  2. red = Asian High
  3. blue = 1x ADR
  4. it dropped from >2x ADR to 1x ADR and bounce back to Asian High

Attached Image

  1. plus before it was huge red delta (sells > buys)
  2. and vol


UPD:
LAST LAST LAST XAU LONG +2.31%

Stats for today
Forex: +30.51%
Crypto: +0.53%

Observer effect
  • #78
  • Nov 8, 2021 8:07am Nov 8, 2021 8:07am
Quoting ryuryu
Stats for today Forex: +30.51% Crypto: +0.53%
Is there punctuation error ?
  • #79
  • Nov 8, 2021 8:50am Nov 8, 2021 8:50am
Impressive result from you !, day was looking typical slow Monday, trading NU,CHFJPY,,ECHF. and GU.


Did you made your FX profits with EU and GU ?
  • #80
  • Nov 8, 2021 10:09am Nov 8, 2021 10:09am
Quoting kk100
Impressive result from you !, day was looking typical slow Monday, trading NU,CHFJPY,,ECHF. and GU. Did you made your FX profits with EU and GU ?
Hi kk100! Today I missed EU long (I was sleeping, it was before LO). After that there were no 6A setups on GU and EU so all forex trades today was on XAU only (it was 10 trades, 8 blocks).

I can't trade ECHF and CHFJPY and other pairs like that because there are no volume data from CME. So literally I can trade only majors. But I don't have margin to trade all the pairs, and also I don't like JPY and CHF, so I'm trading only GU, EU and XAU. In most cases it is only XAU, because the movements are great and it looks like BTC (very close). Let's say it has no top or bottom like BTC.
Observer effect
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