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Attachments: Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading
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Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

Quoting ryuryu
How delta works: {image} it was just the top Let me explain the mechanics of the market once again using this great example. When big bull movement occur that mean someone start to hit buy button. When market buy comes to market it start to search for limit order to fill. Sell limit order. When it filled next one will fill using higher sell limit order and so on. But remember that we see only limit orders in the orderbook and market orders in recent trades. But we don't see positions and stops. But there are stop for sure....
Everything you say makes so much sense. Too bad it cannot be applied to forex. Being in the US, once again screws us out of trading opportunities. Trading crypto on the platforms you are using to obtain the rebates on limit orders is not accessible here. Even if I wanted to learn delta and trade it, can't.
with that being said, I have been rather successful trading weekly fib pivots for about 5 years. I do believe there is some substance other than just being in the traders imagination, but I definitely get what you are saying......ORDERS MOVE THE MARKET.
  • Post #762
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  • Edited at 2:42pm Apr 23, 2022 2:29pm | Edited at 2:42pm
Quoting pipmaster77
Everything you say makes so much sense. Too bad it cannot be applied to forex. Being in the US, once again screws us out of trading opportunities. Trading crypto on the platforms you are using to obtain the rebates on limit orders is not accessible here. Even if I wanted to learn delta and trade it, can't. with that being said, I have been rather successful trading weekly fib pivots for about 5 years. I do believe there is some substance other than just being in the traders imagination, but I definitely get what you are saying......ORDERS MOVE THE...
You can apply it to forex, why not. You can get real data from CME. And trade on forex with it. It is very funny to see how movement occur on CME and few milliseconds later on every forex broker
But if you are good trading another way why change? Better stick to good strategy and earn

I prefer crypto just because I can trade with 1x leverage and get 0.5% per trade easy. It is not possible on forex, forex is very "slow". Average distance on EU is 0.015%, but on coin named APE (don't know what the heck is it) - it is 0.64%
(And because I can easy make bots, indicators and other stuff for it not wasting time for useless mt4/5 mql language.)

In this example the difference is 33 times (0.5 / 0.015). So even if I have 50x leverage max on crypto vs 500 on forex my risk is 3.3 time higher just on start. And we are not talking about fees/rebates. It is another story.

UPD:

Stats for today:

+7.55% manual (with auto TP)
+1.33% full auto

it was 15 manual trades today

Attached Image

Auto trades: 932
Observer effect
Quoting Mihajlou
Question for RyuRyu or RickM: 1. Do you analyse also Orderbook (DOM) or only Time&Sales (level 2 data)? Do you think that Orderbook (DOM) data is reliable and effective? 2. Is Binance a good source for trading data? Thank you in advance. Best regards.
Hi Mihajlou!

For now I'm using only recent trades data to get volume and compute the delta. I mean in algo trading.
But on bybit the "walls" works just perfect. So it is 100% necessary to analyze and use orderbook too (to see limit order walls).

Binance is not so good as bybit. Looks like they are cheating with "tick" data. Bybit, bitfinex - these are just great.
Observer effect
  • Post #764
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  • Edited at 9:31am Apr 24, 2022 9:11am | Edited at 9:31am
Finally I have created custom chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
Looks promising, but there are some issue with date scale and price scale hehe

Now I will add my favorite moving averages, delta, distance and may be cumulative delta too.

All who want to test it please pm me I'll give you invite to my discord group.

The idea is that: There will be a website with custom charts. They will form using exchange webssockets (updated every 100ms). Volume and delta will be calculated using real data - recent trades. On the chart screen will be added my indicators: 5 EMA + Cross + Stoch + Distance to TP/SL, Delta with alerts, Distance with crosses and alerts and may be Cumulative Delta with alerts too.

You can use it two ways: look at the chart and trade on you favorite platform, on add you API keys and trade directly from that chart. For security reasons personally I don't like the idea of saving API keys, so that functional will be not available for masses. At least for now. Also I can't say now what functional will be available, because I'm spending my time for that. So may be not all the functions will be available or there will be much more of them. I don't know.

Anyway any idea appreciated. Stay green! and remember that all you read is not a financial or trading advice. It is for educational purpose.
Observer effect
  • Post #765
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:51pm Apr 24, 2022 1:59pm | Edited at 2:51pm
Many people pm me and ask if my strategy is profitable, or ask to sell them my custom indicators, or to give then my EA for free.

First of all I must say that is not not "my" strategy. It is common sense strategy. My friends and me just exploit market vulnerabilities.
One great trader asked me not to mention him on ff, so I'll not do it. But you must realize that initial idea was not mine. He taught me. For free. Zero bucks was spent. (Tell me now that there are no good people around.) Same as idea of "distance" was found here on FF and was no mine too. I just learn. Filter good/bad. Try. Research.

Second. My job is trading. I'm full time trader. I can't sell you my indicators, guys. This is not my business. So please DO not PM me.

I checked my trading journey and realized that no indicator (free or paid) will make you profitable until you learn 3 things:
1. Basic math
2. How market works
3. Leverage math

Why basic mach is must have? Just because you must realize that 2+2=4. It is not 5, it is not 3.2. It is 4. So when you see another one great never-ever-seen profitable strategy (but no fees calculated) you must understand that it is not what it tend to be.

Why it is important to understand how market works? Just because otherwise you will be caught by magical thinking issue and it will lead you with all that support/resistance, twice several indis on one chart and other pivot/fibo bullshit.

Why leverage math rule? Because it is that well-knows risk-reward-ratio. But real RRR. Not that 1:2 or 1:10 ration (that is not 1:2 and not 1:10 because of fees, spread, slippage, swap and inflation).

Next. I know there are some "statements" on forex market. Like "you have to trade 3 years then you will become profitable". Or "you have to study 10.000 hours of charts then...". This is not true. I know one guy he has become profitable in 2 month. And I know another one he is not (I know him 15+ years).

So, if you are on stage "I believe in magic" - please pass through. This is not a right place for you. If you think you are a smart arse, reseacher, dreamer, trader, coder - we can try to be friends!

Anyway, wish you stay green!
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi forkstrader! I have EAs for forex, also I have several trading bots written on python for crypto. And a lot of indicators I made using tradingview pine script language. But I'll not share them, I see no purpose to do it. I can share my custom charting, but with small group of traders only. I can share only if I see some will contribute too. For example one great trader shared his vol/delta approach with me. Another great trader shared her mt4 indicator (a copy of mine distance indi). Another one great guy teach me how to code with python....
Hi Ryan,
I understand your concern. I am new to this trading world, esp Forex and Crypto. I am still learning it from past 6 months. Lots of learning now a days. I used to depend too much on the indicators and some so called analysts recommendations and realised that PA is the best way to analyse the charts with the help of few indicators(optional).
So, when I come across any experienced and successful traders like you, I wanted to learn from them. So I read few of your posts and I have asked you through PM to let me join your Discord channel which I haven't got any reply from you.
So, to understand your way of trading, I asked for the indicators you have custom made.
Good to see u recognising others helping u in the past. And it is foolish to expect something from others for you to help them, being a veteran.
Anyways, sorry if I have asked for something u cannot help with.
  • Post #767
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  • Edited at 4:12pm Apr 24, 2022 3:01pm | Edited at 4:12pm
Quoting forkstrader
{quote} Hi Ryan, I understand your concern. I am new to this trading world, esp Forex and Crypto. I am still learning it from past 6 months. Lots of learning now a days. I used to depend too much on the indicators and some so called analysts recommendations and realised that PA is the best way to analyse the charts with the help of few indicators(optional). So, when I come across any experienced and successful traders like you, I wanted to learn from them. So I read few of your posts and I have asked you through PM to let me join your Discord channel...
Hi forkstrader! There is nothing you have to sorry about. It is ok!

But please realize that to let you have my indicator for free I have to pay 960$/year to tradingview for the subscription that allow me to share indicators.

I'm not greedy, but I can't find any reason why I should pay 960$ for that.

AND Otherwise if I ask here to crowdfund (to let you and other people have free access to my indicators for a small one-time fee) then some (we know the names) greedy assholes will immediately come here and start hit buttons to suspend my account for the 3-rd time.

What the world opportunity I have?

But you can read my posts and learn from them for free!
Observer effect
Quoting Mihajlou
Question for RyuRyu or RickM: 1. Do you analyse also Orderbook (DOM) or only Time&Sales (level 2 data)? Do you think that Orderbook (DOM) data is reliable and effective? 2. Is Binance a good source for trading data? Thank you in advance. Best regards.
Hi Mihajlou

Talking about Crypto exchanges, we only get a good orderbook using Bybit Exchange in our experience. We refer to it as a wall because unlike order books/ Dom's on Future markets, the only usefull information is read on the very first line. You can visiblllity see the Delta flip and run strongly on either Buys or sells for a short time.
Its so good, we offer just trade off the data if price fades on a run and turns back towards the mean.
We have tested a few other Crypto exchanges like Binance, none however are as good. Of course, this whole game changes very fast so who knows what the story will be in two months time.

Talking about forex or Future markets, the Dom is very good on EURUSD, S&P, Oil and a few Metal markets. I trade the DOM exclusively on the S & P as the speed of the market maintains a pace slow enough - I can evaluate this information and trade absorption from the data.

Whats the best ?

Bybit by a long way at present.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Hola!

Let's talk about risk management.

Yesterday I made few wrong trades and lost about -29%.
But, overall profit was +68%, so -29% is just +19%.

What that mean? Sh*t happens. My mistake was manual averaging. I just made several wrong decisions in-a-row. First trade was with no delta entry. Just random. Then price start to bounce and I added more. Then reversed the trade. And finally just closed in loss because my profit allowed it.

As I said many times I don't have stop loss and I don't use it for the first entry. I made millions of tests and didn't found positive expectation if using stop losses. Also stops are market orders, and if on forex it doesn't matter on crypto that mean that a) you can have very "bad" price b) you will pay extra fee. So if I want to close my position "in loss" I'm using bot and limit orders to get best possible price and to get lower fee or even rebates. Also I'm using calculations like "50% of overall profit is ok as loss".

How you are using stop losses and manage your risk?
Observer effect
@ryan,why do you keep adding for? why dont you take the loss and move on to the next trade? i would be interested in your view
  • Post #772
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  • Edited at 8:32am Apr 27, 2022 7:47am | Edited at 8:32am
Quoting nozzer
@ryan,why do you keep adding for? why dont you take the loss and move on to the next trade? i would be interested in your view
Because I'm stupid arse, why else

But this is not a big problem, I have 3 accounts I'm trading with and here I show only manual one.

1. Forex. I'm trading only gold using volume from CME. Unfortunately all that "sessions" and "weekends" ruin all the OCHL calculations, so I need to re-code all my stuff. I can't use only volume in trading, because OCHL data helps, for example, to determine the trend.

2. Crypto bybit. This is just great exchange. It has excellent free volume data. And tons of shitcoins with >10% jumps and 0.5% average TP. So it is just peeeerfect to earn real money.

3. Binance. These guys are scammers, they have fake volume data unusable for trading. Also they don't have some shitcoins bybit has, and their interface is awful and can't be used for scalping. But they have 7 coins to trade with rebates for market maker (limit orders). So I'm using 5 coins at once and use binance for algo trading only.

So for now I have paused forex trading, because I have no time to code all the same but with stupid useless mql language. And in most cases I'm trading 50% manually on bybit. 50% bot trading, like auto TP set, TP move and so on.

Algo trading earn about 1-2% daily. Manual can do 20% or 1%, it depends on market conditions. Or -29% haha.


Remember, that as a trader you have to find where you have less risk and better conditions. For example average TP distance for EURUSD today is 0.03%
Attached Image
But for coin named BSW (dont know what the heck it is) it is 0.49%

Attached Image

So if I trade 1x leverage I'll gain or 0.03% or 0.49%. Or let's say if I want to earn 0.03% on crypto that will have 0,49÷0,03=16.3 times less risk.
What math I have to use to make trading decision? Remember that trading is math. It is not predictions, believes, gossips, magic and luck. Math, pure math.

Next thing. On crypto I can easy and fast move funds between exchanges or accounts. For example I have 50/50 bybit/binance. And something goes wrong on one of it. I can easy move the funds in 5 mins. On forex it is not possible at all. I can't manage it that way.

Next thing. All crypto exchanges have their API. And I can easy code the bot to trade it. Forex has no API. And it is barely impossible to use modern languages, only useless mql. But what for I must spend my time learning mql instead of python or javascript?

There are many many little things here and there and if you compare them all you will understand that trading crypto is better. Now. May be tomorrow it will be better to trade something else. We will study it and change everything to be first with new conditions.
Observer effect
Secret sauce and few questions people ask me.

Q: Is it possible to earn 5% daily?
A: No. It is not possible. Market is different each day. It depends on many factors: from news and geopolitics to Moon cycles and pressure. For example few days ago I was able to earn >20%. One day. Then next day it was about 1%, next too. Remember that market phases are: accumulation/distribution and whale time. Whale time is when big player decide that market is ready (there are a lot of stop around) and that is accumulation phase is over. Then it push the button and start to move price to desired level using market orders and stops as a fuel. Accumulation phase or whale phase itself are not dangerous for trader. Dangerous if you open the trade on one phase and wake up on another.

Q: Is market random?
A: No, it is not. Definitely it is not random. Money makes the market go round.

Q: Is it possible to earn on forex market using standard indicators or EAs?
A: I'm not sure about EAs, I think not. But using standard indicators - for sure. We all know one good fellow trader and he is making constant profits every month using hl and rsi.

Q: Is there any "secret" sauce? Why you are using paid plans to get real volume? Can I trade without it or it is a must have thing?
A: Secret sauce is math. You have to understand that 2+2=4. It is not 5, it is not 3. It is 4. If you believe in magic, luck and can't calculate how much [email protected] is no indicator will help you neither paid nor free.

Q: People say EAs (bots) are not reliable. You can't achieve any stable results with them. People tried and failed. Why you talking about algo trading so much?
A: There is some fairy tale around about dolphins. People say that they pushed them to the ground when they were goin under the water. Yes. True. But the people that the dolphins pushed in the other direction will not tell anything.


Stay green!
Observer effect
  • Post #775
  • Quote
  • Edited Apr 29, 2022 5:33am Apr 28, 2022 9:30am | Edited Apr 29, 2022 5:33am
One more time guys and girls.

I'm not interested in:

1. Your great trading results
2. Your never-ever-seen-profitable strategy
3. Your indicators

And I don't care what you think about my trading style.

Remember that I'm full time professional trader and I have no time to prove someone something. This thread is just my interactive trading journal. If you don't like it - don't read it.


Stay green!
Observer effect
I replied to you.
Waiting for feedback.. thanks.
+3.54% from a single trade:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 60 KB

1m TF, APEUSDT. Delta signal.
Entry: limit entry on delta signal. Exit: on EMA 6 low (dynamic TP).

And now imagine hold the trade till EMA 60

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 83 KB

+5.96%

One. Single. Trade.

Why? Because if EURUSD min TP distance is 0.03%, here we have impossible 1.06%. It is 35 times MORE.
Observer effect
  • Post #779
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:19am Apr 29, 2022 12:30am | Edited at 5:19am
Quoting mixedbags
An invitation
Last warning

1. This is my interactive trading thread. Read the rules first!
2. Stop posting your demo bullshit here. I'm not interested in your results, strategy and all the information you have.
3. Stop advertise scam prop firms here. Go to commercial section and post there.

Twee, why no reaction about the behavior of that member? He advertise scam prop firms directly! Why FF allow him to spam my thread and advertise it for free?

p.s. Red badge members help wanted: please report his behavior! Unfortunately only "they" can ban be for nothing but when I report nothing happens.
Observer effect
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