Trump Admin Official: Have all the components of a deal, but it's not finalized yet

Yes, institutions move the markets based on tweets and not on areas where large amounts of liquidity is resting. You won't last long in this game, but it has been fun taking your money. I will spend it wisely. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Pro tip: Most of the liquidity has been swept at a weekly level; expect pullbacks for the rest of the week.

"Don't stop...believing. Hold on to that fee-ee-lin'....."

Is 11 straight up days for /es a new all time record? (SPX has a red candle or two in there, but the futures do not)

This bounce has been insane. TOO insane. It has to stop at some point, but the FOMO or momentum shift, or whatever the heck is driving it higher is wild.

I get so bogged down scalping the 1/5/15 min charts, it's wild to take a step back and look at the dailies.

Sox all of this is to say: We are just one errant tweet/missile away from a sizable breakdown.

Should that happen in the near future, and you removed the narrative completely and just looked a the charts, you'd say "this move down makes PERFECT sense after such a rapid move higher". But, when the drawdown comes, it will no doubt come from something specific, yet "oddly" timed almost perfectly with one or more of the majors touching key resistance levels. And they say "fundamental analysis" matters.......pssshh....



I really don't see a re-test of 6300 without some catastrophic event though, do you? Admittedly, I don't see your referenced (/es or SPX) gaps at 6300 levels on the daily charts, rather that area acted as support (August/Sept 2025 levels).

I DO see a big SPX gap from ~6620 > ~6740 between 4/7>4/8 though. THAT could certainly be filled....but even this seems less likely near term. The futures do not have the same gap though so who wins the "gap fill" battle?

The up move has been significant. The volumes, while solid, aren't incredible. RSI is getting into +80 values on the /es daily (which hasn't been seen since September, 2025). There's a huge underlying inflation risk to the global narrative. FED rate cuts aren't expected until late 2027. Many "bad" things on the horizon.....so, naturally, equities rally to confound expectations. Once everyone feel "secure" is when they will fall. At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see new all time highs (SPX above 7002.28) and then have the rug pulled.

The near-term question is: does this war end? If bombs start flying, say goodbye to the rally (and FAST!).

After that priority, it's: how do the markets react to earnings?

And, finally, does anything come out of the FOMC press conference....though my guess is that HAS to be more of the same "we have to wait and see how the war will affect inflation this year before making any moves on rates".

This has been one crazy year so far. And could get a lot crazier if something derails.

repeat after and after to blow SL & accounts

Turn off your computer and give your right hand a break

if markets are supposed to go sideways, why are people buying stocks and gold?