Trump: Iran talks 'could be happening over next two days' in Pakistan

Obviously you know this, but for those newer traders who may not....

The futures curve is just that: expected price at some point in the future. /CL, for example, is now at $89/barrel in May. That still has a lot of price baked in with respect to the impact caused by this war. December /cl is trading at $76.

What does this mean? Now that things are "calming down" (and who knows whether the war escalates again?), the markets, which are forward-looking, seem to be pricing energy impacts on future energy price expectations.

Near term, as you indicate, the spot price is high because oil isn't flowing. I am not sure I would qualify the fact that equities rising and the near term /clk26 contract down 6.5% today (now $92.75) as manipulation.



....All of that said: OF COURSE political actions = market manipulation, just not in a malicious intent. The Hunt Brothers manipulating the silver market in the '80s is what I call "malicious manipulation". A sizable player shorting a company and then spreading rumors about it's impending doom to drive down the stock price is "malicious manipulation".

Governments attempting to stabilize/bolster their economies/markets through broadcasting (or not broadcasting) events that are "market moving" is certainly an attempt to manipulate the markets, but that's EXPECTED.



Here's the gray area (not proven, but certainly speculated to be the case): If a government let an inner circle know that an event was on the horizon so that "friends" could get in front of it (i.e. a strike on oil production sites which would cause a massive increase in oil price......or a massive tariff policy introduction that would cause chaos in global pricing of assets). THAT would be manipulation.


In this case, however, the US has been saying the same thing for weeks now: the war is "won", "they want a deal", "we will end this soon".

Early on, there was less confidence from the markets because missiles > rhetoric. However, the longer things drag on, the more such comments bolster the 'hope' that things will end. If investors have been short this whole time (or sitting on the sidelines), every day they don't "get in" is a day they miss out. They (I) learned it from 2025 during the tariff v-bottom....and the FOMO is setting in again.

So, what happens? Things rally uncontrollably until over-extended, then we see a 5% pullback sparked by some news even (even benign). Then things settle and the rally continues......unless the energy impact becomes embedded in the economy to such a degree that inflation pushes the rate cut chances to 2028. THEN we're in for some serious chop.


Until then: "Rider 'er till she bucks you, or you don't ride at all...."

I personally do not, seems like the market does. For all this low impact news NQ jumps like hell, LOL.

It doesn't matter what anyone of us believe. It only matters what the market does with the info that's being laid out.

Not having enough cash to support it's terrorist activities could help.

It's all about how you spin it, isn't it? "Lost" "Won"? These are just words that each side can use to their own ends.

I am sure propaganda is strong within Iran at the moment as well about how they beat the big, bad, US military. Probably a lot of that taking place in Germany back in the 1940s as well. The question is: how do both sides conclude the war and what lasting impact does that have on the world?

Provided "assurances" are made regarding nuclear concerns, the Trump administration can walk away and claim "victory"....and carry that into the mid-terms.

Trump has, once again, set himself up with the potential for a "relief valve": force a lot of pain/potential pain on the world and then 'release' that pain....the world breaths a sigh of relief and then forgets just how bad things were made by the man who gave them the relief. Humans are "sick in the head" that way.

...but, most people don't want to live in a constant state of pessimism, so they will for hope wherever they can find it. Markets do the same.



Here's hoping the war ends now before further damage is done to the world economy (and, the lives that economy impacts).

Dream on

Ha Ha Ha...
You've just made a permanent source of income for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

20+ billions spent on this dumb war so congrats MAGGOTS on your supreme stupidity

Not until the mullas are thrown out of the country.