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March 2026 FOMC Review: Watching & Waiting
As expected, and bang in line with market pricing, the FOMC maintained the target range for the fed funds rate between 3.50% - 3.75% at the conclusion of the March meeting, extending a ‘pause’ in the easing cycle which began in January, amid an increasingly uncertain economic outlook in light of ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and the subsequent sharp rise in energy prices. chart Despite no policy changes being made, the Committee remained divided as to the appropriate rate path, continuing what is now a long-running theme of disunity among policymakers, with the last unanimous rate decision having been in ... (full story)
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In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 17–18, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot” revised up to 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/5qflQVsz6A FED PROJECTIONS SHOW SEVEN POLICYMAKERS SAW NO RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE SEES RATES HIGHER IN 2027 FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT END OF 2026 VERSUS 4.4% IN DECEMBER PROJECTIONS
From media.rabobank.com | Mar 18, 2026
As widely expected, the FOMC remained on hold at the March 17-18 meeting. Governor Miran dissented again, because he wanted a ¼ percentage point cut. The FOMC statement saw only minor changes. The most important one was the addition of “The implications of the developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.” Given the high level of ...
From currencythoughts.com | Mar 18, 2026
The press release reads very much like the one seven weeks earlier. Again and as was very widely expected, the federal funds rate was left unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The insertion of a new sentence in paragraph two stating “the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain” merely states the obvious that elevated ...
