Powell: We've moved 150 basis points, now in range where many estimates of neutral rate live

*POWELL: NEAR-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP *POWELL: MOST LONGER-TERM EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENT WITH 2% GOAL *POWELL: HIGHER TARIFFS ARE PUSHING UP PRICES FOR SOME GOODS *POWELL: REASONABLE BASE CASE IS SHORT-LIVED TARIFF INFLATION *POWELL: IN NEAR TERM, INFLATION RISKS ARE TILTED TO UPSIDE POWELL: RISK OF MORE PERSISTENT INFLATION NEEDS TO BE MANAGED *POWELL: THERE IS NO RISK-FREE PATH FOR POLICY FED’S POWELL: MUST TAKE A BALANCED APPROACH AS THE BALANCE OF RISKS HAS SHIFTED, AND WE REMAIN WELL POSITIONED

POWELL: ANOTHER CUT IN DECEMBER IS FAR FROM ASSURED Fed's Powell: Strongly differing views at meeting about how to proceed. FED’S POWELL: IN DECEMBER, FED WILL ENTER THE NEXT BALANCE SHEET PHASE AND HOLD STEADY FOR A PERIOD FED’S POWELL: REINVESTMENT STRATEGY WILL ALIGN WEIGHTED AVERAGE MATURITY MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STOCK OF OUTSTANDING SECURITIES FED’S POWELL: NO DECISION MADE YET ON DECEMBER MEETING; FURTHER RATE REDUCTION IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION, WITH STRONG VIEWS AND TENSION BETWEEN POLICY GOALS ACROSS THE COMMITTEE

Fed's Powell: Tension between two goals, and strong views across committee. *POWELL: FED HAS NOT MADE A DECISION ABOUT DECEMBER MEETING FED’S POWELL: TODAY’S RATE CUT WAS A RISK-MANAGEMENT MOVE; DECISIONS GOING FORWARD WILL BE A DIFFERENT MATTER Fed's Powell: We can't address both employment, inflation risks with our one tool. FED’S POWELL: NOTES TIGHTENING IN MONEY MARKETS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS; ASSESSES RESERVES AS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AMPLE AND SEES LITTLE BENEFIT IN FURTHER BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION