Powell: Near-term inflation expectations have moved up; most longer-term expectations consistent with 2% goal

FED’S POWELL: DOESN’T PLACE MUCH WEIGHT ON NON-MARKET SERVICES DATA; NOTES INFLATION EXCLUDING TARIFF EFFECTS IS NOT FAR FROM THE 2% TARGET FED’S POWELL: ESTIMATES INFLATION MAY BE ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.6 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE TARGET; DOES NOT SEE LABOR MARKET OR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS TIGHTENING IN A WAY THAT WOULD MAKE INFLATION MORE PERSISTENT FED’S POWELL: NOT ASSUMING TARIFF-DRIVEN INFLATION WILL BE ONE-TIME; SAYS FED IS MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY FED’S POWELL: POLICY STANCE IS MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LABOR MARKET’S GRADUAL COOLING POWELL: DATA CENTER INVESTMENTS AND AI IS A BIG DEAL

POWELL: DATA AVAILABLE SUGGESTS OUTLOOK FOR EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE SEPT MEETING *POWELL: LABOR MARKET APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY COOLING *POWELL: INFLATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED Fed's Powell: Prior to the shutdown, data showed that growth may be on a firmer trajectory. DOWNSIDE RISKS: *POWELL: SHUTDOWN WILL TEMPORARILY WEIGH ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY *POWELL: JOB GAINS HAVE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY" *POWELL: DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT APPEAR TO HAVE RISEN FED’S POWELL: AVAILABLE EVIDENCE SHOWS LAYOFFS AND HIRING REMAIN LOW, WHILE JOB AVAILABILITY AND HIRING DIFFICULTY CONTINUE TO DECLINE

FED’S POWELL: ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED TO BRINGING INFLATION BACK TO 2%; SAYS THE FED’S COMMITMENT IS CREDIBLE AND FIRM POWELL: DON'T THINK WE'LL HAVE A VERY GRANULAR UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMY WHILE SHUTDOWN IS ON Fed's Powell: Could imagine shutdown could affect December meeting. FED’S POWELL: ACKNOWLEDGES POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING MORE CAUTION IN THE ABSENCE OF DATA, THOUGH NOT COMMITTING TO SLOWING DOWN — SAYS SUCH A SCENARIO IS IMAGINABLE POWELL: MUCH OF THE TIME THE LAYOFFS ARE ABOUT AI; YES IT COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR JOB CREATION