Powell: We've moved 150 basis points, now in range where many estimates of neutral rate live

FED’S POWELL: ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED TO BRINGING INFLATION BACK TO 2%; SAYS THE FED’S COMMITMENT IS CREDIBLE AND FIRM POWELL: DON'T THINK WE'LL HAVE A VERY GRANULAR UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMY WHILE SHUTDOWN IS ON Fed's Powell: Could imagine shutdown could affect December meeting. FED’S POWELL: ACKNOWLEDGES POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING MORE CAUTION IN THE ABSENCE OF DATA, THOUGH NOT COMMITTING TO SLOWING DOWN — SAYS SUCH A SCENARIO IS IMAGINABLE POWELL: MUCH OF THE TIME THE LAYOFFS ARE ABOUT AI; YES IT COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR JOB CREATION

FED’S POWELL: DOESN’T PLACE MUCH WEIGHT ON NON-MARKET SERVICES DATA; NOTES INFLATION EXCLUDING TARIFF EFFECTS IS NOT FAR FROM THE 2% TARGET FED’S POWELL: ESTIMATES INFLATION MAY BE ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.6 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE TARGET; DOES NOT SEE LABOR MARKET OR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS TIGHTENING IN A WAY THAT WOULD MAKE INFLATION MORE PERSISTENT FED’S POWELL: NOT ASSUMING TARIFF-DRIVEN INFLATION WILL BE ONE-TIME; SAYS FED IS MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY FED’S POWELL: POLICY STANCE IS MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LABOR MARKET’S GRADUAL COOLING POWELL: DATA CENTER INVESTMENTS AND AI IS A BIG DEAL

*POWELL: DON'T KNOW WHAT DATA WE'LL GET BEFORE DECEMBER FOMC *POWELL: STRONGLY DIFFERING VIEWS WERE REALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE *POWELL: LABOR MARKET IS NOT CLEARLY DECLINING QUICKLY *POWELL: RESERVE DECLINE WILL HAPPEN, BUT NOT FOR LONG TIME *POWELL: FED WILL BE ADDING RESERVES AGAIN AT A CERTAIN POINT FED’S POWELL: FED PORTFOLIO CURRENTLY HAS MORE DURATION THAN OUTSTANDING TREASURY STOCK; AIMS TO SHIFT BALANCE SHEET TOWARD SHORTER-DURATION ASSETS, WITH ENDPOINT YET TO BE DECIDED *POWELL: SEPTEMBER CPI WAS A LITTLE SOFTER THAN EXPECTED *POWELL: NON-HOUSING SERVICES INFLATION HAS BEEN MOVING SIDEWAYS

*POWELL: DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN LABOR SUPPLY AFFECTING JOB MARKET Fed's Powell: Demand for workers has fallen a little more than supply, and our tool supports demand. FED’S POWELL: RATES ARE NO LONGER ACCOMMODATIVE BUT ARE MEANINGFULLY LESS TIGHT THAN BEFORE, WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT FURTHER WEAKENING IN THE LABOR MARKET POWELL: IT TAKES A WHILE FOR TARIFFS TO GET TO CONSUMERS POWELL: COULD GET 2 OR 3 OR 4 MORE TENTHS OF INFLATION FROM TARIFFS, BUT SHOULD BE ONE-TIME

*POWELL: FED DOESN'T LOOK AT ANY ONE ASSET PRICE, SAY IT'S WRONG *POWELL: IN AGGREGATE, HOUSEHOLDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FINANCIALLY FED’S POWELL: DOESN’T SEE EXCESSIVE LEVERAGE IN THE BANKING OR FINANCIAL SYSTEM; DESCRIBES THE SITUATION AS MIXED BUT NOT OVERLY TROUBLING FED’S POWELL: OVERALL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NOT OVERLY TROUBLING; NOTES INTEREST RATES AREN’T A MAJOR FACTOR IN DATA CENTER INVESTMENT, BUT LOWER RATES WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT DEMAND AND HIRING FED’S POWELL: UNLIKE THE DOT-COM ERA WHEN MANY WERE JUST IDEAS, TODAY’S COMPANIES HAVE REAL EARNINGS AND PROFITS — THIS IS NOT THE SAME KIND OF BUBBLE FED’S POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING HAS BEEN A MAJOR SUPPORT FOR THE ECONOMY AND REMAINS A BIG DRIVER OF ACTIVITY; NOTES CONSUMER SPENDING PLAYS A MUCH LARGER ROLE THAN AI IN OVERALL ECONOMIC GROWTH

Fed's Powell: Seeing some softening, the economy is growing about 1.6% this year, slower than last year. FED’S POWELL: SOME MAY ARGUE CONDITIONS HAVEN’T CHANGED, THOUGH IT’S UNCLEAR IF THAT WILL BE THE CASE; HOPES FOR A BETTER FLOW OF ECONOMIC DATA BY THE DECEMBER MEETING Fed's Powell: If not getting info, and the economy looks unchanged, there will be an argument to slow down on cuts. Fed's Powell: We do not see weakness in the job market accelerating, then again, we didn't get the September payroll report. FED’S POWELL: A STRONGER LABOR MARKET AND STABLE PRICES ARE THE BEST COMBINATION THE FED CAN DELIVER FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE