US Advance GDP q/q

Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%. chart Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (red triangles), St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10/9 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels ...

KC Fed survey joined yesterday's Regional Fed surveys in the doldrums (as did today's plunge in durable goods orders) but of course, all eyes were sternly focused on Q2 GDP's beat. That 'good news' sparked a hawkish shift lower in rate-cut expectations... chart The Nasdaq lagged..again.. with Small Caps ripping higher. The S&P ended red again with The Dow clinging to gains... Nasdaq has underperformed Russell 2000 for 11 of the last 12 days, erasing YTD outperformance for the big-tech index. chart This is the biggest relative ...

Stronger than expected US GDP growth is welcome, but not narrative busting for the Fed’s path to easing. Nor is an upside surprise on Q2 core PCE. I’ll explain why along with the details. Core PCE Surprises Higher Q2 core PCE inflation was hotter than expected at 2.9% q/q SAAR (2.7% consensus and Scotia). This must be due to monthly revisions, but we’ll find out for sure tomorrow. If there were no revisions to available data up to May, then June core PCE would have to be up by about 0.35% m/m SA which seems implausible given what we ...

We’ve had a pretty solid set of US activity numbers today, but it isn’t having a major impact on market expectations for rate cuts, which are increasingly being seen as a done deal. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second quarter 2024, a little above our 2.5% forecast and more so against the 2% consensus figure while the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favoured inflation measure, rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation. This latter figure, which is an improvement on the 3.7% jump in the first quarter, implies that tomorrow's ...

We’re looking for stronger GDP data and a 0.2% month-on-month core PCE deflator print in the US next week – which should keep current Fed rate cut expectations firmly in place. Across the CEE region, we’ll be keeping an eye out for Hungary’s upcoming central bank meeting alongside a flurry of data releases in Poland and the Czech Republic. United States (James Knightley) • GDP (Thu): The advanced estimate of second quarter GDP growth and the June core personal consumer expenditure deflator will be the key data points to watch next ...

There are no Fed policymakers on the calendar due to the communications blackout period around the June 30-31 FOMC meeting. The period runs from midnight on Saturday, July 20 through midnight on Thursday, August 1. Expectations for the FOMC meeting are for no change in the fed funds target rate range but a signal that a cut could be coming. The report most likely to have an impact on the FOMC deliberations is the advance estimate of second quarter GDP set for release at 8:30 ET on Thursday. The GDP Nowcasts point to growth stronger ...

The last batch of inflation news that Federal Reserve officials will see before their policy meeting next week is in, and none of it is very good. In the aggregate, Commerce Department indexes that the Fed relies on for inflation signals showed prices continuing to climb at a rate still considerably ahead of the central bank’s 2% annual goal, according to separate reports this week. Within that picture came several salient points: An abundance of money still sloshing through the financial system is giving consumers lasting buying ...