US Retail Sales m/m

US retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, a touch higher than the consensus 0.3% MoM expectation while September’s growth rate was revised up to 0.8% from 0.4%. A big 1.6% MoM increase in autos was the main factor, but building materials (+0.5%) and restaurants and bars (+0.7%) both contributed strongly. The “control” group, which excludes volatile items (the three just listed plus gasoline) and has a better record of tracking broader consumer spending that includes services, was quite a bit weaker, falling 0.1% MoM versus ...

October retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer. Retail sales rose 0.4% in October. Economists had expected a 0.3% spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in September were revised up to a 0.8% increase from a prior reading that showed a 0.4% increase in the month, according to Census Bureau data. Auto sales drove a majority of the gains in October's reading with sales in the sector rising 1.6%. October sales, excluding auto and gas, rose just 0.1%, below ...

Soft' (Philly Fed & NAHB) and 'Hard' data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims) improved today but manufacturing production shit the bed... chart Ignoring the manufacturing slump, this data reinforced the 'no landing' narrative and pushed rate-cut expectations notably (hawkishly) lower... chart Additionally, The Trump Trade has taken hold of the narrative for now... chart Goldman's Chloe Garber told clients today that Polymarket is priced at 60/40, there is ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% downside to 50/50 odds. "I think there is a ...

US retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month in September versus the 0.3% MoM consensus while the "control group" jumped 0.7% MoM versus the 0.3% market expectation. The latter measure excludes some volatile items such as autos, gasoline, food service and building materials and has a history of better tracking broader consumer spending trends. This is a nominal dollar increase, so we need to adjust for inflation (0.2% MoM) to generate "real" spending growth, which feeds through into GDP. That looks pretty robust at around 0.5% MoM and ...

Retail sales rose 0.1% in August from July, seasonally adjusted, on top of the upwardly revised 1.1% jump in July, and the 0.3% dip in June. Not seasonally adjusted, retail sales jumped by 1.5% in August from July to $737 billion. To iron out the month-to-month squiggles and revisions, we like to look at the three-month average (chart below), which rose 0.3% month-to-month and 2.3% year-over-year. The biggest gainer was ecommerce, the second-largest retailer category behind auto dealers: +1.4% month-to-month, +7.8% year-over-year. ...

Increased BTC demand may ease oversupply fears stemming from the US Government’s 203,239 BTC stockpile.On Tuesday, September 17, BTC rallied 3.71%, reversing a 1.69% loss from the previous session, closing at $60,321. BTC outperformed the broader crypto market, which advanced by 2.67% to a market cap of $2.040 trillion. Sentiment toward the US economy, the Fed rate path, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends drove BTC demand. US Retail Sales and Fed Rate Cut Bets On Tuesday, US retail sales figures supported investor expectations of ...