Bitcoin technical analysis

...Hello Venzen, hello Andoseg2, hope you guys are doing well, family and all.....

I will like to heard your thoughts on this....thanks..

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articl...tral-bank-woes

Hi chonchy,

Thanks for posting a link to the article. I've been reading and thinking about this issue - banks and blockchain, and big business and blockchain, government and blockchain...

I agree: Bitcoin is not the answer for these dinosaurs. I argue, below, that their fascination with the blockchain is like a moth to a candle - that they are pulling a trojan horse into their camp.

What's interesting about the central bank inquiry into blockchain is that the thinking and approach behind Bitcoin is the complete opposite of the philosophy and practice of these large centralized, trusted entities. Bitcoin is so strange to them that they have to set up entire task teams and research groups to try to understand it.

Of course, the peer-to-peer architecture of Bitcoin, and its consensus mechanism, means that Bitcoin has the effect of eventually decentralizing anything that it comes into contact with. These large players are centralized - they only have the power because of their centralized authority. They maintain that centralized authority by exercising their power to enforce "trust" - for example, the Fed is, according to its track record, a useless organisation. They make bad policy decisions, they have lurched the US (and world) economy from crisis to crisis over the past century, and what they have to show for their army of PhD's is economic instability, inequality and the largest credit bubble in history.

Centralized Trust

Now, we ask: why does anyone still "trust" them? Why do governments, business and markets even care what the Fed says? Because they have made themselves the central authority on monetary policy and practice. Governments, business and markets have no option other than to trust the Fed, because they are they only player in the monetary policy game, and they don't allow competitors. From their centralized power, they control all central banks and all banks, and have the final word on money and policy decisions. Centralized Trusted Third Party.

Decentralizing Principle

Bitcoin decentralizes money and decisions about money by running a p2p network with no center and that operates by mathematical consensus. Because of how it works, the Bitcoin network is slow: every transaction must be relayed around the network, new blocks must be verified by the majority of the network's nodes. All this takes time and a lot of computing resources. The benefit of this slow and expensive protocol, to its users, is that it eliminates the dependency on bank-owned (or Western Union, etc) payment networks and trust.

Bitcoin is slow and expensive because its nodes check and recheck everything and reach consensus about the validity of a transaction. No need to pay a fee to the bank (or Western Union) for them to ensure the money ends up in the account you are paying to. So, ultimately, to make payments, and transfer money internationally, the previous requirement to trust this task to the banks has been eliminated.

So as the need to trust banks diminishes, so does their centralized power to maintain a monopoly on the issuance, control and movement of money.

World's Largest Supercomputer

Bitcoin was designed with this objective (eliminate the need for trusted third parties), specifically, in mind. The incentive to run a Bitcoin node is to ensure the validity of your own transactions in the blockchain, but also to strengthen the network and promote the objective of reducing the need to trust banks and central banks. Even by just using Bitcoin, users are participating in the demise of the banking system as it stands today.

So, the question is then: What possible use could Bitcoin have for the banks? The only logical answer is: None.

Notice that the banks and big business don't ever say "Bitcoin" - that is a dirty word for them - they say "Distributed Ledger Technology". As if the tech can exist separate from Bitcoin! Why can't it? Because of incentive... Bitcoin only has meaning when it is decentralized - when there is a variety of miners and fullnodes running across the globe. This makes a healthy network with good consensus. What would be the incentive for someone to run a Fed Digital Currency node or miner? If you think about it, there is none. If the imaginary Fed blockchain enforces consensus then what is the need for a Fed? If the imaginary Fed blockchain does not operate by consensus (so the Fed can change monetary policy) then why use a blockchain at all?

So, however you slice and dice it, there is no logical use case for blockchains by the banks or any other centralized entity - except where they want to make themselves irrelevant.

Distributed Ledger Tech Fantasy

Which brings it back to my original remark: the idea of Bitcoin and the possibilities offered by its blockchain intrigues these large centralized entities.

They sense that there is a lot of power there but they don't understand it. They want that power for themselves and they think its in the tech - that by just creating a distributed ledger they can harnass that power and use it to extend their business model into a new century.

What they don't yet comprehend is that Bitcoin's conception and design is a response to centralized trust. Bitcoin is a spontaneously born agent of disruption and political resistance. Its power is in its defiance and censorship resistance. Popular dissatisfaction with central banking and their control of money and money networks is what fuels Bitcoin. The need for financial privacy and thwarting of Big Brother's surveillance is what makes Bitcoin appealing. The underlying tech serves the political function, and without a political incentive, the tech is mostly useless. But the fact that there is money (bitcoins) involved, makes the current big money interests pay attention - at all the wrong aspects

Bitcoin's rise and tech is all the hype and these entities are itching to understand this thing that came out of nowhere without their input and beyond their power to patent.

They are experimenting with the blockchain tech and widely announcing how good it is and its promise, how it is the future, and how they're going to harness its power to bolster their market share and centralized trust.

Rat Poison

This is a case of rats eating poison. There is actually a better analogy to ants inviting a wasp larva into their colony, but let's stick to the simpler rats example for now. The poison looks like and tastes like a consumable (potential capital). It may even smell better and taste better than anything else that's available. The large players: corporates, stock exchanges, banks, and governments - they're singing praises to the poison that was designed to kill them. They tell themselves, each other, and society that "Rat Poison" (Bitcoin) is essentially bad, but that its composing parts and mechanism must somehow be useful, and can be subverted to their own means.

I predict that they will eventually discover that the only application for a meaningful blockchain is to eliminate their own relevance. For them to retain their centralized authority and their monopoly, they only need to run the same centralized servers and services they run now. They would better have acted in self-defense by spending their blockchain research budgets on seeking ways to undermine Bitcoin and its blockchain. Instead, they're widely proclaiming that:


Society is internalizing this information and it is slowly becoming popular belief.

There is only one blockchain with any use and meaning, namely Bitcoin. By the time the rats realize that they've consumed poison, its too late, they would already have convinced society at large that Bitcoin (and its blockchain) is the best idea in history.

Hi choncy. I agree with Venzen. Fucking banks want the entire monopol as always. The news can tell anything, I look at the money and see that people are preparing to massive buy Bitcoin. I don't pay attentions to news because they can lead to wrong decisions. The only truth is PRICE , because there are the money . If traders are buying, then they know something that crowd doesn't know . Look at the fall of EURO predicted in January 2015. I have predicted the fall and it happened like expected. Only after 11 month, finally, Goldman Sachs said in public Euro could fall below 1$.

So I will recommend anyone to not pay too much attention to news. The only truth is on the chart, the truth is spoken by the price. This is the only truth. There are the banks money and money of those who create trading news. I have saw multiple times price moving against the news. They release trap news and investors follow them then they are eaten.

Do you have like me 1 instant up to 472 then down to 450 in 10 minutes then up again to 472 then down again to 452 all in about 35 minutes???

Update :

New SL :

...Agree... in all aspects...

....Yes I do agree with him.... in any moment it shoot to 1500 again, and if it cross, who knows, lol....if it went once from almost nothing to 1500, imagine what would happens if it cross that high, good luck to you all, I have some physical.....

Update :

Stopped out with little profits. If the price push up, then this will be the viable long entry . Long term holders are building their positions. This will become true if the price push and clean the supply level (red line)

Ok, we are ride it :

Going up

May it break the 500 resist. Or may it retrace?

Update :

Buyers took the control of the long term trend. It's a great opportunity to make ca$h for those who have entered long.

More updates will come in the next days wich will reveal the ideal levels where to move the trailing stops

Update :

Two stop loss levels :

Last call!

...Nicely done andoseg2, very good trading....

nice charting TMR, very nice in deed....

Thank you chonchy.

Update : New SL level :

Wish I bought. I saw your post earlier on. Whom do you use to trade BTC? I do not believe Forex has Bitcon for trading

You can use FxOpen/Forex.ee to trade bitcoin . I would recommend FxOpen due to positive reputation.

Will look them up, thanks. Looks like I missed the run though. Do they have an app on the Apple Store for trading?