Bitcoin technical analysis

I would be very very careful going long btc, huge overhead selling pressure region on HTF.
If yous are long then pray that buddha or krishna is with you. )))

You don't know how to estabilish a trend and you dare to give advices . Ridiculous. When I've posted you some explanations you felt offensed and ignored me. Go, learn, then you can return and post your opinion. At least, learn the basics of trading forex, at least...

Update :

2 options for both trailing stoppers who did not covered and aggresive risk managers (those who covered)

your explanation are worth zero and I'm not interested in some dreamers wannabe demo trader explanations. Now go on and post some more of your useless ideas.

Nah all is good no worries. )))

Go away troll Nobody need you here.

Update :

All work like expected, wait patiently and let the price create new levels of demand before make any SL adjustment.

How are you chonchy ? Did you took this long entry ? I hope you did, and I hope this breakout will prove to be very explosive wich will bring you a lot of ca$h.

Beautiful creation love it , they wrote a few about the magic creator Satoshi or ?? i do not believe it. something gonna change in the market for sure.

They all says buy and hold looks like it is right but where to ???.

What do you think about add more long position using the profits for a 0 risk?

they advertise too much and everywhere.

My expectations are that Bitcoin will rise at minimum 750$.

There is no good low risk high reward opportunity in near future regarding Bitcoin. I mean, the price is already climbing. Until the buyers lock profit, it is possible to pass more time. If you missed the fresh entry wich I was shown, just wait patiently for another opportunity. The next zone wich will be interesting to add long is ~ 670$

Hi androseg2. Glad to see you're still keeping the thread alive.

BTCC 1-day candle chart



Magenta annotations show that the stochastics (top) are diverging from the rising price, as is RSI that is reverse diverged from the current price high (RSI is at the Dec high, but price is still below). Neither of these indicator conditions imply that the advance cannot continue.

Volume is interesting because it has been relatively flat for this entire gradual advance. There is a slight uptick in volume, but it is as if the largest investors (funds and banks) are not participating.

The red areas are supply zones, and just like we had $300 presenting strong overhead resistance during 2015, since November 2015 until now the resistance seems to be at $470 (Bitstamp) and 3000 CNY.

According to the history of FOMC statements, today is important for bitcoin price.

The chart shows previous Fed Fund rate statements and the market reaction. Interesting that we are at a similar juncture as we were last October when the Fed were hinting that they intended to raise rates in December, and Bitcoin was at a long-term resistance level. The Fed's reiteration of their intention to hike in December gave the market the impetus to keep buying through resistance. Why? Most probably because a looming interest rate hike implies uncertainty in the market - money flow changes, market position adjustments, etc.

The subsequent rally hit a structural high near $500 and profit-taking returned price to the new support floor at $300 - resistance now become support and also the level of the 800-period volume weighted moving average (cyan color)!

The market quickly resumed advance in rally mode but when the actual hike happened in December, bitcoin price immediately began selling off. The uncertainty was over and the market reality was clear: money flow into the US economy and US dollar strength, so no need for safe haven bitcoin, right?

Today's juncture is the same. Bitcoin's fundamental value is still under threat, but this time it's Classic and not XT. The Fed plans to raise rates in July. Bitcoin price is at critical long-term resistance. So, whatever the Fed says today, will most likely set trend:

1) further 2016 hikes unlikely -> Fed worried about "recovery", grim outlook for global economy -> rallies for bitcoin and gold?

2) July hike remains on the cards -> Fed waiting for US "recovery" to gather pace, US dollar strength and market reshuffle delayed for another 3 months -> bitcoin rally is go-go-go!

3) hike rates now -> Fed thinks everything is going so well -> bitcoin sell-off (as in Dec 2015).

Those are the 3 scenarios I see. If today, 27 April, will be the outcome 2, then continuing advance is likely and it could run to $550, $600 or $700 as you say.

Update :
SL @ breakeven should result in locked profit even if this deep correction will continue.

If the price does not recover and stop you out then this would be the long entry :

Good day
is there a list of Brokers that trade Crypto currencies ?
doing a search give me more than 27000 postes to read through

BTCC 1-Day Chart



Support & Resistance

Bitcoin price has pushed up against a resistance level since Nov 2015.

Current price action - not really visible in the attached 1-day chart - seems to be in the initial stages of a large decline to find support. Several likely supports are evident:

1) The 200MA (red) near $400 and 2600 CNY.
2) a support zone around $370 and 2400 CNY (orange)
3) strong long-term support near $300 and 2000 CNY (blue). This zone is also the present level of the 800-day volume weighted MA (VWMA) which could be viewed as bitcoin's base price.

Price has spent several months above its 200MA, so a return to this level seems obligatory. The nearby levels of $400 and $370 may be attractive demand zones, but there is reason to beilieve that we might see $300 in the near future.

The repeated failures to advance above $470 (red zone) could result in a frustrated sell-off. A subsequent bounce from long-term support would provide the necessary momentum to launch price above $470 resistance, and also gather the participation that has been lacking. Notice how volume has been tapering since the Dec 2015 highs.

$300 (blue zone) had been resistance throughout 2015 and since breaching it in Oct 2015, the market has only retested this level once.

Momentum Indicators

The 1-day stochastics (top) are falling away from overbought territory after diverging (red dot) from price at last week's high. Notice how, in the past, this combination had resulted in large sell-offs.

Additionally, RSI (second from top) has reverse diverged during last week's lower high (price is lower than Dec high, but RSI is making a higher high). This reverse divergence adds downward bias to medium term price direction.

Imposter dampens mood

Earlier this week, a certain Craig Wright, claimed via the BBC and The Economist that he is Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Strangely, the claimant refuses to perform the most rudimentary verification which is to sign an independent message with a private key (Bitcoin or PGP) belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto.

The market appears not to be happy about his awkward appearance on the scene. Yesterday, when technical proofs debunking his claims began emerging, the market embarked on a brief relief rally. However, today, Craig Wright announced that he will be spending early bitcoins to backup his claim that he is Satoshi Nakamoto. Uncertainty and expectation hangs over the market, and the concerned mood should result in selling behavior.

Upside targets

Above is the bearish outlook. To the upside there is a resistance layer at $550 and another at $690.

$690 is a significant level because this is the approximate level at which price will equal mining production costs after the June/July block reward halving. For those who are new to Bitcoin, a "Block Reward Halving" happens about every 4 years and involves a halving of the amount of new bitcoin being released into circulation, according to the network's consensus algorithm.

That bitcoin price will reach, at least, $690 during 2016 is almost a foregone conclusion. The question we have to ask ourselves is "How will price make its way to $690?".

From the current juncture, my sense is that price will first go down to find solid support before advancing to breach $470 resistance. How low it could go, is discussed above. Either way, up or down, it is best to let the market majority grapple with the S&R levels outlined, and to only trade once a clear trend direction becomes evident. Your greatest enemy in this market is greed, which tends to lead the trader to over-commit to a position, and to do so too soon before a move.

Your greatest friends, in any market, are patience and discipline. Good Luck to all.

Hi,

Some brokers offer the BTC/USD and other instruments, but it is usually best to trade directly via the bitcoin exchanges. There are many, and they're all sharks, so be sure to not deposit more money than you can afford to lose.

The most popular exchanges are:

Bitfinex

OKCoin

Bitcoin China (BTCC)

A useful comparison can be found here.

The bitcoin exchanges offer varying degrees of leverage and commissions, so feel free to ask questions here if you need help or advice.

As for other cryptocurrencies, I don't personally dabble in those, but other members may have advice and suggestions.

What are your thoughts on BTC-e

No problem venzen, I just love how Bitcoin evolve. Is very likely as a Stock.
Update :

Update :

Another long opportunity with tight stoploss :

BTC-e happens to be one of the few exchanges that does not report their registered office, location or even provide an email address or contact number, so I would not recommend it.

Not that the other exchanges are much better - they are unregulated, opaque, have been accused of running fractional reserves and Bitfinex has admitted insider trading... so all of them fairly dodgy.

Kraken, has the best reputation and most communicative management and BTC-China (BTCC) may be a close second, but I always recommend caution with all of them.

Bitfinex 1hr



I recommend waiting for the market to establish price above the red resistance zone - then trade for $500 and then to $550.

Below the long-term rising support (blue) short to $400 and possibly $370. I know this seems unlikely, but the market is unanimously bullish (reason for caution) yet has not achieved a new high since Nov 2015.