BTC/USD Trend Following EA Beta Testing All Time Return:
74.7% BTC/USD NASDAQ
- | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 36 Posts
OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUY,10,Ask,30,SL,TP,"",0,0,clrGreen);
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DislikedCheck out my post 630 & 631 here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post7985283 The markets are indeed random. The first sample of 5 charts is 50:50 coin flip with equal probability. The second set of charts is if you had a fundamental bias, so probability of up is 0.55, down is 0.45. Nice uptrend each time! Its important to understand fundamentals and what the bias is ... otherwise you are just trading random noise! EZIgnored
DislikedNZDUSD has fallen more than 100 pips after yesterday’s rate announcement. Why? RBNZ stated that it would abandon its tightening bias and that they expect the currency to fall further over the coming months. NZD is the blue line in the screenshot, and the blue arrow is the time when the announcement occurred. Coincidence? Only to skeptics who believe that profitable trading is nothing more than fortuitous. This came on the back of the hawkish Fed comments, just one hour earlier (white arrow). USD is the white line plotted by the strength indy. Up,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} good info never looked into those correlation indys b4. Have you tried Pitview? they have something similar using an institutional data feed, got about 20 market makers, anyway they summarise the order flowfrom 1 mins - 24hrs to see which Pairs are strongest weakest.Ignored
Disliked{quote} So what I'm gathering from the coin toss with fundamental bias, we don't want to look at indvidual daily news we want the overall fundamental sentiment, not whether last months jobs were slightly lower or higher. Just trade the pull backs with trend on until we get a fundamental game changer that changes overall bias. If only was that easy...or is it?Ignored
DislikedConclusions: 1. Is a coin toss random? Yes. 2. Are markets random? Absolutely not. Randomness is merely a euphemism for a lack of information and/or knowledge. 3. Are fundamentals the holy grail? No, because any piece of information can always be trumped by other info that the trader is unaware of, and the market is ultimately a mix of anonymous participants whose agendas are unknown, at any given point. But a basic knowledge of what data the major bank traders currently consider to be important, coupled with a timely news feed, is enough to prove...Ignored
Disliked{quote} It is not that easy of course. You have to look at the fundamental data, and how price reacts to it (Sentiment analysis) I remember a year or two ago, AUD had a jobs report out ... something like 5k was expected for jobs creation, but it was like 50k. AUD spike up (against all other pairs it trades ... AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDJPY, etc). 24 hours later, AUD was back below it was for the news release. This showed something underlying which made AUD have negative sentiment. It proceeded to downtrend after that for weeks/months. So we can't just...Ignored
DislikedNZDUSD has fallen more than 100 pips after yesterday’s rate announcement. Why? RBNZ stated that it would abandon its tightening bias and that they expect the currency to fall further over the coming months. NZD is the blue line in the screenshot, and the blue arrow is the time when the announcement occurred. Coincidence? Only to skeptics who believe that profitable trading is nothing more than fortuitous. This came on the back of the hawkish Fed comments, just one hour earlier (white arrow). USD is the white line plotted by the strength indy. Up,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I had to reply to this thread as the subject has been brought up by many traders in the past. Some even tried to develop a system based on coin toss...that didn't went well as you can imagine. Hanover, not only is an old member of FF (been reading through a lot of his posts in the last couple of years), but Hanover also brought a lot of good information to all the traders. I don't know Hanover personally, I don't know how Hanover trades the markets, but I like the way he thinks regarding the markets and I strongly agree with point no.2 -...Ignored
Disliked{quote} So you have evidence that the future can be predicted based on historical information or is it just your bias?Ignored
DislikedCheck out my post 630 & 631 here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post7985283 The markets are indeed random. The first sample of 5 charts is 50:50 coin flip with equal probability. The second set of charts is if you had a fundamental bias, so probability of up is 0.55, down is 0.45. Nice uptrend each time! Its important to understand fundamentals and what the bias is ... otherwise you are just trading random noise! EZIgnored
DislikedCheck out my post 630 & 631 here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post7985283 The markets are indeed random. The first sample of 5 charts is 50:50 coin flip with equal probability. The second set of charts is if you had a fundamental bias, so probability of up is 0.55, down is 0.45. Nice uptrend each time! Its important to understand fundamentals and what the bias is ... otherwise you are just trading random noise! EZIgnored
Disliked{quote} How do you know the probability of up is 0.55 when you have a fundamental bias? Actually, how do you know when you have a fundamental bias? Sometimes even when fundamentals point in one direction the price can go in the opposite direction for quite some time before it reverses to follow fundamentalsIgnored
Disliked{quote} Phil, No, sorry, I wasnt aware of Pitview. There are many currency strength indicators around. Henry Liu developed one, which first aroused my interest in them, then theres Tom Yeomans AccuStrength, Mark Boardmans Apollo, PointZeros Currency Meter and no doubt many others. For something thats free, theres Oandas Heatmap,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} From your experience on Strength Currency Meters which is your favorite?Ignored