Why it is possible to predict price movement?

CJ's forecast from Mar. 8, 2013

"I can see this walking down the line to the 112.50 - 113.50 area, then a run to higher highs...140's at some time maybe....months away or years maybe for those 140's"

Forgive me if I misunderstand you..... but.... there are no random graphs being generated within the Forex market.

Sit back and try to understand how the charts on your screen are created. They consist of 2 axis... one for time and one for price. We have time and we have price of the instrument. Time is constant, it is a given. Without time, we would have one single candle on the screen within which price would travel up or down, confined to the single candle. Time is used to index the chart, one candle at a time, based on the time frame you have chosen to look at. The chart is paused for the given time frame period and a candle is created. In essence, we are pausing time long enough to draw a candle and then we step one period of time over and create another candle. The length of the pause is the time frame being used.

Now consider this. What are we actually measuring when we say "price"? What is the candle built from?? It has to be something. When a mason builds a wall, he is using bricks or blocks. As he adds these building items, the wall grows in size. But what are the items that create the candle? It's not money, there are no pennies, pounds, dollars, euros or any other financial instrument. So what is it?

The candles are created by transactions, usually large ones. If you or I create a transaction with a buy or sell order, we have a near zero affect on the candle. However, when all the transactions are summed or when massive transactions occur, price moves up or down. That is why it takes a lot of transactions to move price one "pip", or fractions of a dollar, euro, pound etc. But pips are not the building blocks of the candles that we see printed. The candles are created by "ticks". Ok, what a "tick". Tick's are nothing more than an indication of price movement. Price ticks indicate a minute move in price, either up or down. Ticks are what the candles are created from. More ticks up in price and the candle grows taller, more ticks down and the candle is shorter or it lengthens in the downward direction. So ticks are like the masons bricks, it is the DNA of the candle so to speak. Also understand that a tick is not a unit of measurement, it is only an indicator of price movements, either up or down. When you watch that tiny little tick chart, the price scale is another distraction and is irrelevant. Notice also that there is no time axis....the chart shift with each tick in price. That is why it is best to look at this tiny chart during off hours..it shifts less than when massive loads of ticks are being generated during say the UK/US sessions. The scale of the tick chart changes during these times as well, During off hours, the chart is zoomed out and you see a larger portion of the pattern. During the busy trading sessions, the chart is zoomed in and you see more detail, but less of the pattern. Make no mistake, the pattern is the same during both sessions and it repeats just like a song playing on a player piano as the song scroll goes round and round.

SPEND YOUR NON TRADING HOURS AND SLOW TIMES LOOKING AT CHART PATTERNS - YOU WILL SEE EVERY ONE AGAIN!

Now consider this. Since time is constant, chart movement on the time axis is paused to construct this candle. What's important about this? The longer the chart is paused, the greater the number of ticks required to build it. Ok, whats all that BS mean....

We pause the screen once a minute to create a 1M chart, once every five minutes to create the 5M chart, once every 15 minutes for the 15M chart and so on up to the MN chart or longer. Understand that these are not separate charts, they are individual charts with images that appear within each time period, BUT they are in no way separated. Reason being is that a 5M chart contains the same data, or the exact same tick information as 5x 1M candles. The 15M candle contains the exact same tick data as 3x 5M candles which contain the exact same tick data as 15x 1M candles during the same time period and so on up...

So a MN candle is constructed from and contains the following exact tick tick data from = 4x WK candles, 28-31x D1 candles, apprx. 180x H4 candles, apprx. 720x H1 candles, nearly 1440x 30M candles, nearly 2880x 15M candles, 8640x 5M candles, 43200x 1M candles and who knows how many individual "ticks" of price data. The main point is they all contain the same DNA, if you will. This data is replicated within each candle and it is the same throughout all of the candles.

Now, important point. The tick chart is the blueprint for all candles to come, across all time frames. The exact same pattern that you see on that tiny tick chart is what you will see first on the 1M, next the 5M, then the 15M so on right up to the very largest chat. The length of time that it takes for these patterns to appear on each chart varies greatly, based on the period of time that it takes to create the given chart. Make no mistake about this, and this is why charts ARE NOT RANDOM AND PATTERNS REPEAT ACROSS ALL TIME PERIODS.

This is true for every candle that you are looking at on your charts, no matter the time period. Each larger candle contains all of the tick data from the amount of candles, from the lower time periods below it. This is how your chart is created and this is how price can be and is predicted into the future. Why do you always get that feeling, when looking at a chart, that what you are seeing is familiar looking? It's because you have already seen it before, but because you are NOT LOOKING for this repetition in patterns, you are not actually seeing it for what t really is. That is why there is so much distortion and distraction in this game. Everything you have learned is designed to avert your attention away from this. It's nothing but a market filled with lies, distortions, distractions and falsehoods. And 95%+ of the traders are victims of it.

You want to know something else? There are not always different patterns across the pairs, some have nearly the same pattern but they are "shifted" in time making it harder to recognize. Want proof? Take a long hard look at the attached images images, EURAUD and EURUSD.... you can't fathom how much money I made from these images! So explain to me how the same chart pattern that appears on one, appears on the other, during a different period of time? And furthermore, when you find these "twins", you can follow them continuously! The same as I have followed the EURUSD price map for the past 4 years. They are road maps to unlimited profit! Look at these images...go ahead and take a long look into that rabbit hole you hear about but have never seen.

In this example, EURUSD is leading EURAUD and this is how I based the rather large anchor trade to begin a long progression on the EURAUD chart. EURAUD was current at the time the image was taken and the trade was just placed. This was posted live when I did it. It may be hard to see, but on the EURUSD chart, there is an active trade as well, off to the right of the image. I believe the pattern appeared on the EURUSD chart, several years before the EURAUD chart...this is the same pattern, only time shifted on the EURAUD chart. Consider if you will, 2 satellites in space. You look into the sky and you can see the satellites, located at different latitudes and longitudes, or different locations. If they are following the same orbital path, lets say a sine wave type orbit, then each one will appear at the exact same coordinates, but at different times. You never recognize this when you look up into the sky because you always see them in different locations, even though they follow the exact same path. You never see it in your charts because you are always looking at some distraction instead of price and the thought never even crossed your minds if truth be told. Nobody see's it because nobody is looking for it. This occurs across many pairs in this so called random market. But I "see" it!

So how did I do on that EURAUD trade progression? I probably made more money on that than I did working the 1st 20 years of my mining career. That's no lie and I was paid well in my position.

Want more "less random than you thought" stuff? How bout these "Black Swan" events that pop up "randomly"? Well I say "Black Swan" is a code word for Bull Shlt! And yes, I can prove them wrong on this as well. Already done it with the so called "unexpected" SNB intervention. The chart patterns, which run continuously, for-told this event MONTHS before it happened. In all honesty, it was probably there years. It has to be for the charts to mature from the tick to the D1... AND ON UP THE TIME SCALE TO THE WK AND MN! You do understand that if this is correct, the same type movements MUST be seen at a later date on these higher time frames, correct?? So for every violent, large price move you see on a 5M, 15M or even a 1M chart, THE SAME MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR AT A LATER TIME, ON EACH HIGHER TIME FRAME! THESE MOVEMENTS WILL BE SCALED TO MUCH LARGER MOVES AS THE CHART TIME PERIOD INCREASES!

ALL THAT YOU WILL EVER NEED TO TRADE PROFITABLY IN THIS DUNG PIT CALLED FOREX IS GIVEN TO YOU IN PRICE - THEY CAN NOT HIDE WHAT THEY DO, THEY CAN ONLY DISTORT, DECEIVE, DISTRACT AND LIE ABOUT IT - DON'T FALL FOR IT!!!

I DO NOT ADVISE ANYBODY TO PLACE THEIR MONEY ON THE LINE USING THIS INFO - I BRING IT FORTH TO SHOW WHAT THIS MARKET IS ABOUT AND IN RELATION TO THE TOPIC OF THE POST, THAT PRICE CAN BE AND IS PREDICTED TO NEAR 100% ACCURACY. IF YOU CHOOSE TO TRY THIS ON YOUR OWN, YOU WILL FLIRT WITH THE EDGE OF INSANITY - I KNOW, AS I'VE KNOCKED ON IT'S DOOR MANY TIMES ON THIS JOURNEY AND SEVERAL TIMES THE DOOR OPENED!!

For those asking me to "teach" you how to do this, I just have. It's that simple. Spend the countless hours looking into the charts and price as I have done and you may just begin to "see" the light.... unless you fall into a rabbit hole and get lost along the way!

One last thing, I don't spend my time making these maps anymore, they are not needed to make profit, but they are there.

Now I better get my pizza out of the oven before it burns so chew on that while I'm gone.

-CJ-

I just wanted to show you some of the trades that the people in our group make each and every day.... here's one that just went from a trader who's following the Fox! Nicely done might add! All you need is price!

How many of you see those numbers of pips in a month or even a year??? Not very many I would wager.

-CJ-

great trading tips CJ, much obliged!
it has been long time since have not read good stuff from veteran trader.
i just hope you will not reveal more than one supposed to.
would love to hear a few words about managing the losses and more about losses in general (and also the strategy when price turns against when fully stacked)
thanks.

CJ...,
I spent the better part of the last 4 years trying to make a break(or at least to break even). During this i went on the same path as most (indis, gurus, following articles, fundamentals,etc). I read(not joking) about 60 fx books etc.....
But never, NEVER have I received such a mindf***. Down the rabbit hole.....
This stuff... is scary.
I'll watch the s**t out of those ticks and maybe, just maybe it will dawn on me as well.
Thank you for your honesty and your generosity in sharing this.

I guess it's either there is a true fox messing with the world for some "unfathomable purpose" or the budists (and some scientists) were right, we live in an illusion, a hologram.
I wouldn't have guessed that i'll ask myself these questions vis-a-vis of forex...and down we go....

I've already revealed more than was supposed to be, at least more than we were supposed to know, a long time ago and my paranoia level remains the same. After all, these are the banks of the worlds nations we are talking about here....think about it.

As for loss or trade management, I can not teach you how to manage your order placement or losses because you have a different view of risk than I do. We are all individuals and we have to each find a way to incorporate these findings into our own trading styles. In time, your view of risk and order entry will change so no matter what I say now, as your trading evolves, so will your attitude and actions toward trading.

For me, when I enter a trade, I look to enter in the "pins" of a candle, at a reversal point. I don't always do this now, but it was how I began. I would place the initial trade here, with a tight stop, mental or hard, 10-15 points above the pin extreme. These "pins" on top and bottom of the candles are where they trap traders into the wrong position. RRT or rail road track candle patterns were a favorite. The candle patterns also indicate a "W" or "M" formation on the time frame below the one you see the RRT. You will never get a trade in at the very top of the pins because spread is widened here and they are scalping pips off every trade placed by traders in doing this. Not to mention trapping and accumulating orders to go the other way. Anymore, I'll take a trade entry anywhere I recognize it. I will add or stack my orders all the way down or up the move, sometimes using scripts to fire multiple pending orders and other times manually. I mostly use the scripts when trading many pairs, like all 28 and during "news" events. If the initial order was wrong, I will know quickly because a new high will breach the "pin" top so there the trap no longer exits. It can happen if they didn't get enough order flow trapped and then they will make a 2nd effort to trap volume before the reverse comes. In that case, I take the small hit and wait because the trap will be set and I'll be on my stacking way.

Understand this when I say the goal is not to make a perfect trade, it's to make a profitable trade. A losing trade is more profitable to you when you cut your loss as early as possible...that's 10-15 points for me. When you let your trade drag you into a DD situation, you will more than likely drop it at a far greater cost to you. Or as many do, get a margin close out on an underfunded account. Leverage is a double edge sword, it cuts both ways but it's most deadly to underfunded and over traded accounts. You will know when you are right and have placed the proper initial entry. And you will know that they have started their "payoff" phase or reversal at that time. Once put into motion, they seldom change it, UNLESS they need more orders and they will trap again. This is when you add orders or stack them.

Stacking can take any form you like. You may want to add at each S/R level on the way down or up, fibo levels whatever. These levels are created to bring both buys and sellers together at a common location to increase transaction, thereby allowing a greater move in price. a 50 pip move can double your account in a day, done properly. You have numerous ways to protect your trades, same as you do know. In one of those trade examples I posted, you will see where I moved my initial stop down to lock in the free trades above it. No matter what happened, they could not get that back. You take what's given and never give it back. I closed all but one trade in that progression for profit if I recall and the last trade entered before the reversal was tossed out at a loss. Move to the next one....it's always there. Let's take the example above, the trader, who is still learning this, entered his trades an entire level too soon. He had sufficient funds in his account and a risk appetite that allowed him to wait for price to return after the 3rd level rise. the 3rd level up or down is the key entry and he was early. I would not do this but this is within his comfort zone. I'll annotate the chart as I did one long ago to illustrate the points.

This is how I would do it.... fit your trades into your comfort zone and adapt as your trading evolves.

To accomplish what stacking did in the above, you would have to have 37 WINNING trades across how many charts and you still wouldn't get the profit level you do here.

WHEN YOU ARE RIGHT - KICK THEIR ASS! THEY WON'T MISS IT AND THEY CAN'T STOP IT!!

That is unless your broker is keeping your trades in house, then you're getting a letter like I got and out the door you go. There are also brokers out there who will copy your trades and ride your success....these are the ones you want. Global Prime Forex in Australia is one who does this. If you are interested in trying them out, ask for Jeremy, he is a co-manager and I know him. FYI, I receive nothing from any broker. I don't need it.

In the end, how you manage your trades are like your trade selection, totally up to you.

-CJ-

So you want us to take the blue pill. ;-)

Alright, this has gone on long enough.

Predictive approaches are only feasible in scalping where trades are held for several seconds on average.

In speculation, especially if you wish to forecast long term price movement, it is not possible to predict price with certainty.

Were you getting "ronery " under that bridge of yours so you decided to visit us?
And who are you to decide that "this has gone on long enough" ?!
Back to your lair fiend, nobody wants you.

The last time I took the blue pill, I saw a guy in a red suit running around....better to take BOTH, the blue and red!

-CJ-

Very well said, but wrong none the less. But I still respect your position.

Live long and prosper!

-CJ-

I'm new here and I think I come from a different viewpoint from many here. I have been fortunate to have access to IB level financial data across many exchanges. While I will note that price is subject to microstructure anomalies, all evidence I have seen clearly shows that on large (1 second plus) timeframes spot FX prices are essentially geometric Brownian motions (perhaps with jump diffusion/local volatility/excess kurtosis). If one were to take close data, for example, on any timeframe and define a function u(t) where u(t)=0 if the X(t)-X(t-1) (change in spot price) is less than or equal to zero and u(t)=1 if the change is positive, one can easily show that the probability of up/down moves, entropy, and just about any other statistic implies the standard lognormal model of returns (maybe Levy process). Truthfully, the best shot of predicting price in my opinion is to find a correlated product on a lagging timescale. Also, predicting price movements is probably the least of your worries when trading. There are so many ways to make a profitable trade without predictive ability.

Captain Jack - thanks kindly for the contribution here. I've been a "student" of reversals as you describe for some time...very good info to add to the quiver..

It's not easy to accept the predictability of the market initially. Once you allow yourself to look beyond what everyone says, you'll be surprised by what you find.

Maybe you are right. Instead of predicting price, let's talk about "unforeseen events"... the "Black Swan" events that NOBODY can see coming. Isn't that the acceptable norm?? We all believe that right?? Oh wait, YOU all believe that. That's better. So how about that SNB intervention? Wasn't that one of the all time biggest? How much wealth just vanished into thin air? So many people with busted accounts, so many business failing. And NOBODY saw it coming.....

LIAR, LIAR...PANTS ON FIRE!!!

There were several reasons I pulled ALL of my funds out of forex and moved them to safe havens but the main reason was a decline in my wife's health and less chart time for me. There was also concern for troubled times ahead and I wasn't sure how well protected my brokers were to put it bluntly. After losing nearly a six figure account to that ************** at PFGBest, my opinions of so called "safe" brokers had changed.

So let's get right to the point here....after hearing so much about this, I thought I'd share something with the traders I have known for years. Black Swan events are all BS! Plain and simple and the charts prove it. In the context of what I have been saying, view the charts and make up your own mind. If what I've been saying is anywhere close to true then there had to be a pattern showing the effects of a major event within the charts, many months ago. If I told you that you were warned back in December of 2014 would you believe me? No F'ing way would anybody, much as people cannot wrap their minds around this and accept it for what it is - the truth. As a matter of fact, these warning came much earlier, I'm using this one from December 2014 cause it's so nice. Sweet Jesus, how I love my charts!

Here it is in all it's glory! The preview of the SNB intervention BS event. December 2014 5M chart - one year before the event. Guess what happened when my little girl grew up?

-CJ-

Care to share one ?

Ummmm, wait. Does the 4 year time frame prediction of the EURUSD pair here not count as "long term"? You're killing me now, mate...lol

You must have also overlooked the fact that I had this mapped out to 29 stopping points on that price road map. They far exceed the 4 years on the plotted points shown... but that wouldn't matter to you either...not now nor 5 more years from now when actual price and plotted price match as one, would it?

-CJ-

Ignore him CJ, he crawls threads spouting stuff like that...


When you take on all 28 pairs, do you use what you taught over at steve's and just browse tf's for a match, or do you use something else ?
Trades across 28 pairs in a day...that's hard...

Just as I've stated, you don't need to predict it to profit from it... I've done it to make my point that I can do it using the methods described. You, a learned man have "almost" just confirmed it....

Key words "correlated product on a lagging time scale"..... I use smaller time period charts as correlated product to themselves when applied on a higher time period....the "laggard". Thank you!

-CJ_

I got no problem with trolls, their fun to fool with...they always end up showing their level of intelligence and or of lack of it.

Besides, it's up to him to refute and prove wrong what I've shown and stated....

-CJ_