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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #221
  • Edited 3:54pm Oct 22, 2015 2:38pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Do you see that nice "LONG" rising trend line to the left? Do you see how quickly they cleared their books today. It's like price marching up the mountain for days, weeks and months, and then BAM! Over the cliff it goes, to a point low enough they can close all the sell trades they made on the way up. They work with limited capital the same as us and they have to go flat at some time to be able to reuse that capital. While I make no trade suggestions to others or offer trade management ideas, I can say that I would "expect" to see the bounce...
Hi CJ,

Thanks for the lessons.

On your sell stops (and TP) you have below the market, are they placed at any particular price or just placed at certain intervals?

Also, how do you deal with SLs when new entries are added? Are they placed with an EA when orders are hit or do you place them manually? Where do you place the SL if you have more than 1 position open? Are all SLs in the same place?

Thanks

EDIT: Sorry, just started reading your blog. I'll find the answers.
  • #222
  • Oct 22, 2015 2:56pm Oct 22, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} That is the key. Direction and intent.
Hey CJ,

I'm interested to learn more about the "intent" element. Direction I totally get. But intent?

If I'm not mistaken I think you refer to the levels/pa that the market movers make as "tracks"? I refer to them as "footprints" but I think we're talking about the same thing more or less. I understand that unless I trade in harmony with those footprints it's "curtains". Take today's EURAUD H4 for example. It's "after the fact" I'm afraid but illustrates the point. The original H4 supply zone/track/footprint tells us that selling interest was there. The retest and bearish PA confirms that direction. Is the point of confirmation the "intent" that you speak of or does intent in this case refer to something else that I've missed? Thanks

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  • #223
  • Edited 3:27pm Oct 22, 2015 3:12pm | Edited 3:27pm
Let me just say this " Just because a group of people (Academia) got together to say something , doesn't make it TRUE.."
like some one stated " It's impossible to predict Short term Movements .." Well , are U sure about that ?
Some Predictions on a 1hr Chart ...You have to do your own RESEARCH , People ..This is a system I'm working on ..
It's in the Beta Stage at the moment .. Went against it , twice and Payed for it both times ...
And another thing , I wouldn't completely condemn indicators . They have their own usefulness..


Ask a Group of Egyptologists about the Archaic Egyptian Language , and they would tell you it's a DEAD langauge ..
Well , someone forgot to check on West Africa where the Original people migrated to after the Greek/Roman Invasion ..lol
YUP , This dude(singing) is speaking The Archaic Egyptian Language ...

Again , DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH .... Might be back to post a Prediction for the Asian Session ..
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  • #224
  • Oct 22, 2015 3:45pm Oct 22, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting taomql4
Let me just say this " Just because a group of people (Academia) got together to say something , doesn't make it TRUE.." like some one stated " It's impossible to predict Short term Movements .." Well , are U sure about that ?
LOL 4-5 mnths ago I had a very similar argument discussion with a friend who it a prof of mathematics at Leeds University. He was so certain that market is random and never trade it himself. Just read papers of his fellow mathematicianst hat said so. Many ppl just reiterate what others said withoud first hand experience. Proved him wrong ^^.
  • #225
  • Oct 22, 2015 3:50pm Oct 22, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I never trade below the 15M time frame. I have used M1, M5 to search for price maps, but to be honest, there is way too much distortion there for me. Price patterns are fractal in nature. The largest pattern has the most smoothing. As you drop down to the lower time frames, the fractals become more ragged and dirtier the lower you go. I don't even fool with the maps too much anymore. One is all I need and it's mapped years into the future again, just like the original EURUSD posted here was. It still has 11 more projected points, up to 29...

CaptainJack@,

We would like to learn more from you... please could you share some insights of knowledge on these price predictions so that we can also learn...
  • #226
  • Oct 22, 2015 4:30pm Oct 22, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi CJ, Thanks for the lessons. On your sell stops (and TP) you have below the market, are they placed at any particular price or just placed at certain intervals? Also, how do you deal with SLs when new entries are added? Are they placed with an EA when orders are hit or do you place them manually? Where do you place the SL if you have more than 1 position open? Are all SLs in the same place? Thanks
When I'm trading across all 28 pairs as I am today, I will use a quick pending order script and almost any will work. This one happens to set stops and rolls each trade out after about 20-30 pips profit. It is set for 5 trades but there are times, like before the "news", where I will set it to 10 or 12. You can adjust them to your comfort levels. My comfort zone is hardly anywhere near any others here as I am a gambler and take what most consider to be very high risk. I don't see the risk the same way most do. These scripts allow me to make many trades without having to manually tend them. Trades placed in this manner are considerably smaller in size than others I place when I am trading less pairs. Again, I look to generate profit from trades and could care less about entry and exits being at "perfect" points. When I am trading a specific pair, say the EURUSD mapped pair, I trade by the seat of my pants, with all manual entry and exits. Large lot orders are placed in this manner. I will start with what I call an anchor trade, usually near or in the pins of a candle formation. I use mental stops when doing this and seldom use hard stops. I then stack the trades at no set interval. These trades are usually closed out at the 1st retrace and layed on again as price moves in its intended direction. Sometimes, I will leave the anchor trade in place as I close out the stacked trades. Other times I take what is given and close them all, including ones that may be out of the money at the time.

You can't trade this way because you don't have the same attitudes toward risk that I have. You see my trades as most traders do, from this side of the glass while I look at them as if I am on the other side. This stacking is nothing more than accumulating orders much the way the banks do it and I'll close them out and go flat several times a day, based on pair price action.

I used to love brokers who did complete equity closeouts when you hit your margin limits. They would close out ALL of my trades in profit as I had stacked so many trades I would hit the margin limit with any small pullback in price. It was like a global take profit. It was a good way to end the session. You can do this when you have zero trades in draw down, using the building equity to ply on more trades and any small retrace cause my limit be hit and the global closure sealed the deal. Several brokers have sent me "No longer welcome" letters and sent me packing.... but my funds went with me. Some brokers welcomed my trades as their desks traded right along with me.

To be honest, due to my wifes poor health, I have been an inactive trader for some time now but I've been wanting to wade back in for some time. That's why I'm hitting all 28 pairs, and getting back into the mindset.

Understand that you do not need to make 28 trades across 28 pairs.... you do not need a 500 pip trend move... all you need is one good setup, and stacked trades and you can squeeze thousands of pips from a 50 point move. Why look for those 28 trades when you have already found a winner? There are so many trade ops each and every day it's unbelievable.

Another benefit of this is that I would receive a very, very nice trade rebate each and every month, never less than 4 digits and many times into 5 digits. Anybody doing serious trading should be signed up with a rebate provider... it is well worth it!!

I've got old screen caps that show a lot of this but they are spread across 3 laptops and 2 desktops, not to mention several external hard drives. I keep everything and I take screen caps of patterns for latter reference. Got thousands of them here. If i get time, I'll post some more but they are all on the net and for the most part in public forums. There is some information that I did not bring from the private forum, where I made my home, as it is proprietary to the content of that forum.

These pics should help you understand my madness. There were 5 trade progression sets over the course of a day or so.....

The initial trade set had the SL moved down, locking in the profit of those trades...take what is given... price moved down and hit TP and all trades booked for 15K....

2nd progression was set in place... Note the 15 lot pending SELL above the TP line..... price rose and hit TP, but fell shy of this new anchor trade so I had to adjust it a bit for the fill. They did not surpass the pins of the 1st progression, holding price at almost the same level.....

3rd, 4th and 5th progressions were trade the same as the 1st 2..... screen caps are here some place for those as well, but they are not in the same location of the others... if locate them, I'll post them as well, but they are no different....

This is how I trade.

-CJ-

These trades were taken from patterns found on the 5M time frame.
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #227
  • Oct 22, 2015 4:44pm Oct 22, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} CaptainJack@, We would like to learn more from you... please could you share some insights of knowledge on these price predictions so that we can also learn...
Unfortunately, I will not repeat what is already posted across close to 2000 pages in easily accessed public forums. Everything you need has already been shown, discussed, cussed at and debated... it stands on it's own.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #228
  • Oct 22, 2015 5:15pm Oct 22, 2015 5:15pm
Quoting taomql4
Let me just say this " Just because a group of people (Academia) got together to say something , doesn't make it TRUE.." like some one stated " It's impossible to predict Short term Movements .." Well , are U sure about that ? Some Predictions on a 1hr Chart ...You have to do your own RESEARCH , People ..This is a system I'm working on .. It's in the Beta Stage at the moment .. Went against it , twice and Payed for it both times ... And another thing , I wouldn't completely condemn indicators . They have their own usefulness.. Ask a Group of...
Excellent work my friend and I wish you luck in your endeavor. It looks promising.

As for indicators.... they are like any trading system, or ea... ALL of them work when the conditions they are programmed for are encountered. In my posts, I use the analogy of a fox hunt to simulate what I do. Retail traders are the hounds and the hunters, while the fox resides on the other side of your screen. The fox is the pilot of price. Indicators and ea's are all traps. You can be a trapper, set your traps and wait for the cunning animal to step into it and you profit when that happens. On the days that the fox hardly sniffs at the bait in your trap, you go home hungry with no fox pelts in your bag. You play the same waiting game each and every day as the trapper, reliant on the fox to walk into your trap. But alas, you are the one who gets trapped more often than not and the fox easily runs away with your chickens in his jaws.

Now comes the mighty pack of hunters on horseback, with their dog packs who should easily be able to over power this small animal. They have guns! They have horns for signaling and dogs for tracking and trapping.... much like a pack of modern day traders with all the fancy tools of their trade. Indicators and systems all designed to locate, trap and signal when the fox is found.... but, like the trapper, they will be successful because their tools, horses and hounds allow them to locate and catch the fox enough times to keep their interest up in using those methods. All too often, the wily fox leads them down one path, only to step aside as they pass him unseen, and back track away from them to his cozy den. Most times with the hunters chickens in his mouth no less!. Again, you go home hungry and tired and missing some chickens.... but soon, the hunt is on again!

Now comes a different breed of hunter... he is a predator. He does not set traps, nor does he use those packs of dogs or stables of horses and he is quite, not sounding any horns to give away his presence. He knows the fox, he knows where he lives, where he sleeps, what he eats, and where he craps and he always sees the tracks. This predator does not chase the fox, he travels silently, with him, matching his each and every move... right back to the foxes den! Sometimes arriving ahead of the fox. When the fox arrives, he has found that the predator has already eaten all of his kits, and now he is taking the chicken right from the foxes mouth. What can the fox do now? Nothing because the fox does what he does over and over again because it works! t works over and over again, day after day, week after week and month after month.... until he meets the last breed of hunter.... that predator who will be waiting on him, time after time, day after day....so on and so on....

Be that predator and quit relying on traps to feed your families.

You sir are well on your way to becoming that predator. Never let anyone tell you what you can or can't accomplish.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #229
  • Oct 22, 2015 5:32pm Oct 22, 2015 5:32pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Unfortunately, I will not repeat what is already posted across close to 2000 pages in easily accessed public forums. Everything you need has already been shown, discussed, cussed at and debated... it stands on it's own. -CJ-

Just found out your thread in steve's forum and the pdf's... going through them now... thanks a lot CJ..
  • #230
  • Oct 22, 2015 6:01pm Oct 22, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting zacorbul
{quote} LOL 4-5 mnths ago I had a very similar argument discussion with a friend who it a prof of mathematics at Leeds University. He was so certain that market is random and never trade it himself. Just read papers of his fellow mathematicianst hat said so. Many ppl just reiterate what others said withoud first hand experience. Proved him wrong ^^.
Should have posted this earlier.... open up one of those little MT4 tick charts and observe through slack trading periods.... like now....

Open the chart up during the next London or NY session and observe the chart and the differences....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #231
  • Oct 22, 2015 6:11pm Oct 22, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Should have posted this earlier.... open up one of those little MT4 tick charts and observe through slack trading periods.... like now.... Open the chart up during the next London or NY session and observe the chart and the differences.... -CJ-
Thank you for your advice. I am doing it now.
  • #232
  • Oct 22, 2015 6:43pm Oct 22, 2015 6:43pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} When I'm trading across all 28 pairs as I am today, I will use a quick pending order script and almost any will work. This one happens to set stops and rolls each trade out after about 20-30 pips profit. It is set for 5 trades but there are times, like before the "news", where I will set it to 10 or 12. You can adjust them to your comfort levels. My comfort zone is hardly anywhere near any others here as I am a gambler and take what most consider to be very high risk. I don't see the risk the same way most do. These scripts allow me to make...
Thanks for the detailed explanation.
I've started reading your blog. Only 1,000+ pages to go.

My prayers for your wife.
  • #233
  • Oct 22, 2015 6:49pm Oct 22, 2015 6:49pm
Captain,
Wow. I have to thank you sir. I only "found" this thread yesterday and consequently spent a good few hours reading your posts at SH forum.
I have been trading for a few years already but yesterday you made something click with me in my understanding of how the game is being played. That cunning fox.
I would say this was a moment of Satori.
I have much more to go and will be reading all that you have been so kind to gift us with.
You have a student.

Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} There is some information that I did not bring from the private forum, where I made my home, as it is proprietary to the content of that forum.
I am a member at SH. I hope what you are referring to is available there to read.

Thank you again.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #234
  • Oct 22, 2015 8:03pm Oct 22, 2015 8:03pm
Quoting zacorbul
{quote} LOL 4-5 mnths ago I had a very similar argument discussion with a friend who it a prof of mathematics at Leeds University. He was so certain that market is random and never trade it himself. Just read papers of his fellow mathematicianst hat said so. Many ppl just reiterate what others said withoud first hand experience. Proved him wrong ^^.
Traders have to learn to be more curious ..

Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Excellent work my friend and I wish you luck in your endeavor. It looks promising. As for indicators.... they are like any trading system, or ea... ALL of them work when the conditions they are programmed for are encountered. In my posts, I use the analogy of a fox hunt to simulate what I do. Retail traders are the hounds and the hunters, while the fox resides on the other side of your screen. . -CJ-
Thanks Capt ..Great Advise


Alright Peeps ...

This is what I have for the Asian Session , Not much happening...
I might redo for the London Session depending on how the Pattern plays out ..
I have it rising , then falling later ... so , I'm going to hold my sell orders and might open another sell order after the expected RISE..

Again Peeps, ONLY Trade the Pattern if it matches your own analysis ..
It's my beta program I'm Forward testing , but I have decided to stop trading against it ..
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  • #235
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:23am Oct 23, 2015 12:23am
I think the question is:

Why is it NOT possible to predict price movement?
  • #236
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:47am Oct 23, 2015 12:47am
At the end of the day, we only have to worry about two things: UP or DOWN. That simple.

My opinion after a LOT of data input, research and some really basic math is this:

Price has a context based on distance traveled, or, RANGE. So many price action ideas center around particular levels. I don't believe in previous levels being the magic of price action. I believe in the distance traveled telling more.

Distance traveled is different for every pair. Understanding this usually results in looking at a lot less instruments to trade because you realize how much opportunity exists in each instrument.

Let the simplicity confound...then let it empower...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #237
  • Edited 10:27am Oct 23, 2015 5:56am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} the tick chart and the D1 chart example that I posted last. -CJ-
Hello Captain Jack,

All what you say about price was my intuition. But unfortunatly only intuition. So if i want to learn nake chart, can i look in live a 1 minute chart to learn quickly?

About indicators, i never trust any classic ones (like MACD, RSI, etc etc (more thousand...) cause they say the same things and i dont like what they say. But (there is always a but), some kind of indicators like fractals or quantum, i mean some indicator that only indicate where price is (and no a calculation more or less complicated about different prices), could be interesting to learn how the price breathe... and maybe could be a tool to learn quickly.

Like this:

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Where i am disagree with you, its not about trading (how could i be?), but in the explanation of why prices move...

To take just one example. Stop hunt. If a computer create a random graph or if you take the speed of a fluid in a hose graph (which look like a forex graph) you can observe exactly the same phenomenum as stop hunt. Can you say that a computer or a fluid playing stop hunt?

I believe that the sums of the will, the sums of every trade, product the same structures. It's quite frustrating to not speak english and explain more or clearly but the fact is, that the sum of intelligence (for us every trade) create a knew one which have her own structure (for us market structure). Its like human reaction when you are alone, and human reaction when you are in a stadium... It's like physic and quantum physic: some laws are realy different.

PS: My trade turns very good.
PS 2: Take my tp at 1160.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #238
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:36am Oct 23, 2015 7:36am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} In what way?
In the way that it conforms to every disposition held by the average FF poster.
  • #239
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:21am Oct 23, 2015 8:21am
Why it is possible to predict price movement?
Because banks need to re-balance their books.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #240
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:03pm Oct 23, 2015 12:03pm
And There You have it ...
Opened up some more shorts like I stated earlier ..
Not too sure yet , if I 'm going to leave them open over the weekend on my live Account..
Will have to do another Pattern Search before the closing ...
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