I am skeptical. If your prediction were wrong would you come after 3 years and say you were wrong? I doubt it.
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Why it is possible to predict price movement?
- #208
- Oct 22, 2015 8:27am Oct 22, 2015 8:27am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,925 Posts
{quote} News and world events do not move price, they are used as excuses to move price
Just like this M15 breakdown of Cable for example. Oops sorry, wrong timeframe. It's a Monthly chart, sold to the wider public as the "Credit Crunch".
- #215
- Oct 22, 2015 11:35am Oct 22, 2015 11:35am
As stated, you do not need to know how to predict price to be profitable.
I agree.
In fact, I agree with everything you've said apart from the fact you're "differing" from me. I suspect you may possibly have taken me as having said something I didn't actually say - certainly nothing in what you've said conflicts with my comments above.
{quote} I agree. In fact, I agree with everything you've said apart from the fact you're "differing" from me. I suspect you may possibly have taken me as having said something I didn't actually say - certainly nothing in what you've said conflicts with my comments above.
You can not treat trading the same way you would a game of skill, like poker, which has set probabilities of winning the pot for each starting hand, when played properly based on table odds. There are a set number of cards in a deck as well as limits on players at the table. In trading, there are no limits. I know and understand well the probabilities of poker as I am an avid player. I know that the larger number of hands that you play, the closer you will come to achieving the true probability of winning with each hand and variance is lessened. If you know anything about poker, then you will understand this chart of my play. 8)
In trading, you can know direction of price but you must also know the intent of that direction. That is the key. Direction and intent.
I can not prove the statement wrong and it could very well be correct, but the variance involved in trading is much larger than it is in poker. You are looking at the same setups across 28 or more trading pairs, different trading sessions, different levels of liquidity, variance in the numerous bucket shop brokers and tons of other things, such as individual variance between floor traders themselves.
All discussion is welcome, even dissenting voices.
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
- #218
- Oct 22, 2015 12:25pm Oct 22, 2015 12:25pm
All discussion is welcome, even dissenting voices.
No problem - I don't think we're "dissenting" from each other that much, anyway.
It's the "high-probability set-ups make it possible to predict, at least reasonably accurately, the overall outcome of 100 similar trades" part of what I said that you're discussing, isn't it? Not the "Nobody can confidently predict the outcome or price-direction of an individual trade" part?
Well, I should have said "I find that ..." or "Many people report that ...", probably.
I don't play enough poker to take your analogy, but I take your point, anyway.
Thank you for your answer CJ. Good stuff to munch over. I'll study the whole thread before I bother you again with silly questions. Regarding the second chart, I had a small panic attack, looks scary as hell to me (I quickly went to grab a beer to drown it). I guess when you know where it's going you don't sweat for trades like this. {image}
While I make no trade suggestions to others or offer trade management ideas, I can say that I would "expect" to see the bounce from these levels as they have trapped quite a few short sellers down in the pins.... depending on how traders react to the talking heads, they may drop again to trap additional short sellers then then move price higher away from them. It's all about the pain factor and how much they can raise it. Kinda like how you felt about getting that beer.
There can be consolidation, accumulation of orders but I expect price to move away from trapped short sellers soon, increasing the pain, while they sell it back up a bit... it's after this next up leg, "if" it comes that I expect the downward express to begin.
Goldman tells everybody today - Goldman Deconstructs Draghi's Conference, Expects "Plenty Of Downside" For EUR, Reiterates 0.95 Target
I told everybody 3 1/2 years ago...
)I've left 2 trades open for a bit on that pair to see if they will close out on a dip. And yes, there were stacked trades down those candles. It's a small incubator account for a family friend who has no tolerance for pain. Had it been my account, those would be full lots and the account would have doubled today. It's also about trying to teach a young man to trade but I don't think he will make it on his own.
How much lower it goes before a meaningful retrace will be in part based on how many sell stops are being set lower at this time. If those stops are large, they will take them in a minute and trap the short sellers there before moving away from them. They will move far enough to hit their SL's or cause enough pain to force them out.... then the train heading south starts to board.
-CJ-
edit: previous trades closed and new progression started... looks like Asia gets the retrace today instead of NY...
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.