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  • #81
  • Edited 1:58am Aug 2, 2015 1:22am | Edited 1:58am
No matter how good your system is, having some idea on whether you're going to be on the right or wrong side before opening a position is something that is a bit easier said than done but by no means impossible.

I would say that the more decimals / prices there are to trade in, the more likely you're going to be on the wrong side. If the only prices available were 1 and 2, and nothing in between, surely buying at 1 and selling at 2 would be easy. Once you bought at 1, the middlemen would add decimal pricing, and price would move to eg. 0.9, for now. Then when someone sold at 0.9, they'd add more decimals, price would move to 0.95, Now someone buy 0.95 and price move to 0.925 etc. All speculators will lose. Scaling-in / out complicates this scam, so that's why you have margin, so that you can't scale-in or out as the leverage wipes you out first. Deposits mysteriously get lost for a while, until you get closed at bad price and then the deposit goes through. True story.

The 4th page below goes into why I've recommended to get your credit from elsewhere than brokers if you must use leverage. (another reason is, the bucket shops don't really need to even manipulate prices to blow up traders... the other traders will do it for them - but if they don't and you get to hold profits overnight, then more complex gears kick into action that make sure the max money is lost. Either the broker manipulates prices, gets someone to do it or just wait for option market makers to do it prior to expiry - this whole scam is automated with "optimal market making" algos, which is why few companies make millions a day, no losing days)
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  • #82
  • Aug 2, 2015 1:26am Aug 2, 2015 1:26am
Hi Terminator,

I remember reading about it early on when I first started trading, but completely ignored it and went the way of the wicked indicators! I guess as a newbie it didn't mean anything to me and it seemed hard to do. I just didn't grasp the importance of it.

When I had a 6 month break a couple of years ago, I revisited PA for several reasons. One of the prime reasons was I'd seen some trading statements that show remarkable results and I wanted to know how they did it.

I put my indies on the chart and tried to match it all up - no luck. Only got somewhere when I took every thing off and just looked at price. I noticed entries were more or less lined up with SR areas. This made me look at SR and price action as a whole. So I learned over the course of about 6 months, but initially I was reading as much as possible, so it only took a short while for it to hit home. It took a few months for it to really mean something to me - I must be thick!

At the end of 6 months, I finally worked out how to trade much better using PA and worked out how I could enter multiple times on big runs. It seems to suit how I work/think. Everyone ticks a different way and I think one of the tricks is to find something you're comfortable with and master it. Oh, I also stopped hopping from one method to another when I found the way of trading that I like.

Cheers
Phil
  • #83
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:38am Aug 2, 2015 5:38am
pharley , Thanks , Lemme do it all the way , Problem with indicators is too much lagging , I should try pick up faster , if not just carry on learning till i master it , Thanks Will ask more question along the way ,
  • #84
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:39am Aug 2, 2015 5:39am
PipC thanks for starting this thread , U have open my eyes after all these wasting years ,
  • #85
  • Aug 2, 2015 8:46am Aug 2, 2015 8:46am
90% mark seems to be the generalised percentage. It's 80% according to this large retail broker.
Inserted Video


It's also noted in a different video that the majority of traders don't hold the a position for longer than 5 minutes. I found this really surprising, I would consider this to be apart of the problem.
  • #86
  • Aug 2, 2015 1:51pm Aug 2, 2015 1:51pm
pharley , did u pay Nial Fuller for full course or u manage to learn it without full course , South Africa currency is weak to Dollar ,
Any one of u traders manage to learn by urself ,
  • #87
  • Aug 2, 2015 4:04pm Aug 2, 2015 4:04pm
Your welcome Terminator12. Pharley thank you very much for sharing your views, resources, and experience with us. I think it has been very helpful not only to me, but to the rest of the forex community in general. There are many important lessons to be learned here, but more to the point of the original thread topic, one of them is that price more reliably respects long term support and resistance levels. This is true in general of any time frame, but seems to be more particularly true with the long term time frames. Most indicators do not seem to regard support and resistance levels and lag the price action which not only give the trader late entries, but many false entries as well. Price action is the fastest and most reliable indicator in the forex market and any other liquid market for that matter. Another concept that I know I had not personally considered is scaling into trades. I knew about the idea of doing it, but never bothered too because it seemed complicated and more risky. However, Pharley has opened my eyes to the possibilities of using such techniques in my own trading.
  • #88
  • Aug 2, 2015 4:08pm Aug 2, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Since this is a Rookie Talk section just a serious warning: adding to the losing trades is a recipe for account destruction. Better to be stopped out with a small (but survivable loss). Do add to the winning trades! Have a bigger bet going when you are winning than when you are losing. k
I wanted to clarify one point but what etrade 360 had mentioned. He talked about scaling into a losing position. There is actually a valid place for this. I remember reading about it here: http://www.babypips.com/school/under...positions.html

If it is done correctly, it can get you a better entry without increasing risk. This just has to be planned out according to risk desired before the trade is placed.
  • #89
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:05pm Aug 2, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting PipC
{quote} I wanted to clarify one point but what etrade 360 had mentioned. He talked about scaling into a losing position. There is actually a valid place for this. I remember reading about it here: http://www.babypips.com/school/under...positions.html If it is done correctly, it can get you a better entry without increasing risk. This just has to be planned out according to risk desired before the trade is placed.
Note the reminder on the Paul Tudor Jones'es wall.
k

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  • #90
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:18pm Aug 2, 2015 5:18pm
Ed Seykota in Jack Schwager's book "Market wizards" answering to the question:"What are the elements of good trading?"

The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
  • #91
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:20pm Aug 2, 2015 5:20pm
Quoting terminator12
pharley , did u pay Nial Fuller for full course or u manage to learn it without full course , South Africa currency is weak to Dollar , Any one of u traders manage to learn by urself ,
Hi mate,

No I haven't paid for any training at all. There is so much good stuff out there already to learn from that's free.

Babypips is a good resource - I just do't bother with the indicator related bits, then Nial Fuller, forex4noobs.

They all cover the PA side of things. Haven't found to much on multiple entries though. If you search for it, results tend to come back with multiple time frames which is not what I do.
  • #92
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:28pm Aug 2, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting PipC
Your welcome Terminator12. Pharley thank you very much for sharing your views, resources, and experience with us. I think it has been very helpful not only to me, but to the rest of the forex community in general. There are many important lessons to be learned here, but more to the point of the original thread topic, one of them is that price more reliably respects long term support and resistance levels. This is true in general of any time frame, but seems to be more particularly true with the long term time frames. Most indicators do not seem...
Thanks PipC, and I'm glad it's of use.

I was exactly the same - never thought about entering multiple times and didn't know how to - too complex etc. After some serious amount of time looking at it I had a light bulb moment and it all sort of fell in to place.

I think the concept of multiple entries can work in many different methods - just take your own way of doing things and think about where you could enter a second, third, 4th time and most importantly, how you would manage in the lot size and the trade overall to minimise risk. Once you have that cracked you stop looking for 30 or 40 pips and start looking for 100 to 200. On a longer run it's potentially thousands. Sounds a bit crazy, but when you see some runs on the charts going 400 pips, 500, 700, and then analyse where you can enter multiple times, it starts to become clearer.

Cheers
  • #93
  • Aug 2, 2015 6:10pm Aug 2, 2015 6:10pm
90% looking for easy money.. quick profits... and give up early... Expect to put in a few years of reading charts to even think of becoming profitable. Most people don't want to put the time.. almost 0% are profitable natural born traders. Its said you have to put in 10,000 hours of practice to be good at anything complicated... This goes for forex, as well as skateboarding, pro-basketball, ect ect.. Some will pick it up faster then others... And some people may never be consistently profitable.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #94
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:20am Aug 4, 2015 5:20am
Quoting pharley
I just enter mainly on retracements, confirmed breaks of highs, perhaps mid-range pin bars. Stops are moved up all the time where there is a logical point, ie, when I enter a new trade, I move all previous trades to the same area as the new trade SL. It's very easy really. Well not easy, but just common sense. Sometimes it doesn't work - hence I only take T1 with half of normal risk. The support level comes from weekly or daily chart on 16/1/15, 26/1/15 and 3/2/15. I fact I traded off the 26/1/15 and lost, but as it was the first trade I only risked...

Hi Pharley,

You seem to have a good approach. Couple of observations:

1. Have you considered dropping down to an even lower timeframe (15mins, 5min, etc) in an attempt to get tighter entries and improve your R:R even further?
2. If I have understood correctly, you move the stops of all previous open trades up to the same point, so if price retraces you exit 1 trade at a loss and the rest with profit? If so, is there a reason why you adopted this particular approach over other exit methods?

Just interested......
  • #95
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:54am Aug 5, 2015 12:54am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi mate, No I haven't paid for any training at all. There is so much good stuff out there already to learn from that's free. Babypips is a good resource - I just do't bother with the indicator related bits, then Nial Fuller, forex4noobs. They all cover the PA side of things. Haven't found to much on multiple entries though. If you search for it, results tend to come back with multiple time frames which is not what I do.
Glad to hear you also follow Nial Fuller, I'm also his follower but FREE one

I agree with this that his free stuff is even enough to make you a good trader. If you watch all his free videos and read his article you will surely turn into a different trader than before.
  • #96
  • Aug 5, 2015 2:54am Aug 5, 2015 2:54am
Quoting Chorlton
{quote} Hi Pharley, You seem to have a good approach. Couple of observations: 1. Have you considered dropping down to an even lower timeframe (15mins, 5min, etc) in an attempt to get tighter entries and improve your R:R even further? 2. If I have understood correctly, you move the stops of all previous open trades up to the same point, so if price retraces you exit 1 trade at a loss and the rest with profit? If so, is there a reason why you adopted this particular approach over other exit methods? Just interested......
Hi Chorlton,

Thanks for the question.
1. Yes for sure - this isn't the only way I trade - it's just one of the ways I trade. We all need a tool box of trading methods that we apply in different market conditions. For example I also look for channels to trade - love trading these! But really, it's just the same methods I use but turned on their side or on an angle. If you think about if, trading off a rising channel support is just the same as trading off a horizontal level. Price still moves up, retraces, goes up further to important resistance levels etc etc. It's just a horizontal line on a slope! So look out for them - they're great to trade. Many times I find myself trading them off a 1hr chart - I normally identify them on a 4hr and use the 1 hour for entries. Got to be flexible as there is no right, one way to trade. (Have a look at the current 4hr usdchf chart and you'll see a rising channel - look at the bounces off support and check out what it looks like on the 1hr chart).

2. Yes I do move stops up when I can. It's normally in line with a further entry in the same direction. Wherever I put the stop for the latest one, I would put all stops from previous trades. I do that because I want to lock in profits from previous trades plus I want to keep my risk levels the same throughout a run. If I leave all stops where there were originally, and risk say 5% on each trade, you only need to enter 3 trades and your risk level has tripled - this isn't good and it's why some traders get wiped out, by taking on too much risk.

Cheers
  • #97
  • Aug 5, 2015 2:55am Aug 5, 2015 2:55am
Quoting Marker7
{quote} Glad to hear you also follow Nial Fuller, I'm also his follower but FREE one I agree with this that his free stuff is even enough to make you a good trader. If you watch all his free videos and read his article you will surely turn into a different trader than before.
HI Marker7,

Yep it's all good stuff. Also the PA info on forex4noobs is good plus quite a few other sites. You never really need to pay for any training as it's all available for free.

Cheers
  • #98
  • Aug 5, 2015 2:34pm Aug 5, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting boxferret
{quote} Are we born losers as you suggest? Certainly some are, but these people shouldn't be trading with real money! Just my thoughts, feel free to disagree.
No my point was not that we are born losers but that the human brain is wired so that it makes all the wrong choices when it comes to trading and gambling. It doesn't come natural to us.
  • #99
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:32am Aug 6, 2015 10:32am
Quoting afhacker
I like to be a day trader but I always failed on it then I decide to leave it and stick to my long term trading.
I think I want exactly the reverse: I want to trade on long term, but I am scalping
We just need to switch our signature and everyone gets his wants

Scalping is not good:
- need to stay at the charts and watch it,watch the news and is like a regular 8h job. Don't let winners run to far and btw trade the majors only, best are which are ranging. it is just a simple "rob and run". Use leverage around 1:5 - 1:20.

Swing, long term is better:
- just put a sell/buy limit and enjoy to the sunshine. Daily once you check the daily candles and extremely important news : 3x in a month.
"cut your loses fast and let the profit run" - use lower leverage: 1:1 -1:4 maybe.
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #100
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:51pm Aug 7, 2015 8:51pm
How on earth would anyone know if 90% of all traders fail? I don't buy into that, it's a myth!
it is simply totally impossible anyone would know that, especially in the forex market which is the largest market in the world,
and is traded off exchange where someone could only have the percentages of a single broker.
that would be a tiny drop in the ocian and that leaves tousands of brokers they have no access to. simply impossible,
don't believe it! it only makes you feel less confident in your trading method,
if everyone think that they only have a 10% chance of winning would that help you in any way? NO
in truth I think it is close to 50% because on every trade there is one winner and one loser
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
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