Disliked{quote} Almost 3 years from my original posting in this thread and nothing has changed...except maybe some opinions as to the randomness of price... or lack of any randomness at all. {image} {image} {image}Ignored
Why it is possible to predict price movement?
- #186
- Edited 1:16am Jan 20, 2015 1:01am | Edited 1:16am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
While it is not possible to predict price movement with certainty, macroeconomics does appear to have a role to play in moving price on the long term. If it didn't then this would render monetary policy ineffective. Furthermore the cornerstone of all investment philosophy would simply be a gamble.
If fundamentals have any measure in steering the value of the underlying instrument, then predictions can be generally made of price going from an intrinsic value of A to B with lots of overshoots and undershoots.
While the trajectory taken to get from A to B would be impossible to predict, there will be a fundamental bias associated with that trajectory and that is where TA comes in handy. Coordinated participant behaviour is going to create repeatable patterns in this otherwise random maelstrom and that is hopefully what TA is all about. Identifying those patterns that can assist in creating an edge.
I tend to adopt the simplistic view that the more reliable predictive pattern of price movement is the longer term trend in price data. For me, that seems to provide the necessary edge to survive in this market but for others, different techniques apply.
The example below illustrates how a small 2% bias in random price data creates sufficient drift to assist longer term trend traders. Only a dash of order is necessary to give sufficient opportunities in chaotic systems.
If fundamentals have any measure in steering the value of the underlying instrument, then predictions can be generally made of price going from an intrinsic value of A to B with lots of overshoots and undershoots.
While the trajectory taken to get from A to B would be impossible to predict, there will be a fundamental bias associated with that trajectory and that is where TA comes in handy. Coordinated participant behaviour is going to create repeatable patterns in this otherwise random maelstrom and that is hopefully what TA is all about. Identifying those patterns that can assist in creating an edge.
I tend to adopt the simplistic view that the more reliable predictive pattern of price movement is the longer term trend in price data. For me, that seems to provide the necessary edge to survive in this market but for others, different techniques apply.
The example below illustrates how a small 2% bias in random price data creates sufficient drift to assist longer term trend traders. Only a dash of order is necessary to give sufficient opportunities in chaotic systems.
{quote} Price is manipulated by the world banks. It is far from random in any nature. Just stopping by to update the EURUSD charts with my predictions.... over 3 1/2 years now and still spot on! The original chart was plotted to 29 points at that time.... and nothing has changed. It is on course just as predicted. Notice the pins on the candles in the latest chart... there is a steep drop ahead for this pair, ride it and retire like me! -CJ- {image} {image} {image}
Sometimes i wonder if you guys who see it (also the pair dna has a winner) have hi iq or are pisces or are born on the 8th ^^. i hope not because that will mean that i wasted 4 yrs. Meanwhile page 520 on your thread at steve's
{quote} There are a few traders that seem to have reached the same conclusion. For me is not a conclusion yet, more of a gut feeling.. Sometimes i wonder if you guys who see it (also the pair dna has a winner) have hi iq or are pisces or are born on the 8th ^^. i hope not because that will mean that i wasted 4 yrs. Meanwhile page 520 on your thread at steve's
During WWII, many pilots spent countless hours looking at ship silhouetttes in preparations for bombing runs. They used pattern recognition to target the enemy ships from high in the sky. It's no different with chart patterns. Spend enough time looking at them and they become quite recognizable. Especially when they play over like a song on a player piano. If you don't think this is possible, which it is by the way, then explain the following images from my library of pics. One is a screen cap of the very tiny tick chart that is provided to you by your oh so gracious broker and the MT4 platform that we use to trade with. It takes about 10-15 seconds to print that tick pattern. The other is the exact same pattern that appeared on a D1 chart, which took many months to print. Explain to me why the tick chart is not predicting the future price action on the D1 chart because it clearly is AND the tick chart pattern continues PAST the topping formation, into the coming decline of the pair. It's like a crystal ball, is it not?
Anyway, half way through the thread....for the 1st time. Many read it several times and use the PDF's for reference. Open your mind to this because you're not in Kansas anymore Toto....and there is somebody behind the curtain of Forex as well!
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
