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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #921
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:57am Jul 30, 2014 5:57am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the regression trend of S&P500 inflation-adj.

Aim of the post.
This post is a short-note about S&P500 inflation-adj. vs. its regression trend and vs. its variance.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
From an historical poin of view, we are in a very impressive phase of S&P500 values (inflation-adj.) above the regression trend (see the duration of last period and also see the triple peaks post 1999 !!!).
Current values are in line with the previous hysterical tops and a little below the 88% of recent secondary top.
According to the distance (or statistical variance) from the regression trend, the US stocks-market is overvalued.
But it is possible a new Sky��Rocket phase above the 88%, because of the unprecedented level of ad-libitum liquidity in the financial ecosistems.

Chart sources.
❖ AdvisorPerspectives.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 789 KB
  • #922
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:42am Aug 1, 2014 10:42am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the Buffett Indicator.

Aim of the post.
The Buffett Indicator is the ratio between ''Market Value of Equities Outstanding'' vs. ''GDP''. With this simple curve we obtain a graph measure of stocks-market evaluation. A second format of this ratio, use ''Wilshire 5k Index'' and ''GNP''.
For a complete didactic review of this indicator see (1).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
From an historical poin of view, we are in a very impressive phase of overvaluation of US stocks-market, a little below the hysterical top of 2000 !!!
This ovevaluation is stable and possible because of the unprecedented level of ad-libitum liquidity in the financial ecosistems.

References.
(1) - http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP.php

Chart sources.
❖ AdvisorPerspectives.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 850 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 672 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 740 KB
  • #923
  • Edited 8:31am Aug 3, 2014 6:53am | Edited 8:31am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the NYSE Margin Debt curve.

Aim of the post.
The NYSE Margin Debt Indicator is the aggregated dollar value of issues bought on margin (i.e., borrowed money) across the exchange, or the dollar value of securities purchased on margin within an account (= the aggregate value of all margin debt in a nation or across an exchange) (1) (2).
Official data are reported in (3).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
A) this indicator shows a very interesting anticipatory behaviour vs. S&P500; current curve evolution do not shows divergences;
B) 2014 curve shows an unprecedented double tops on historical peak values.
C) previous tops of 2000 and 2007 shows a key sign on this indicator, a critical SellOff (is a signal ???); now, this sign is absent;
D) the months between the SellOff-sign vs. top of S&P500 is 0-5 months for 2000 and 2007; 5-months reversal on the current double-tops are July & November 2014;
E) the Credit Balance Indicator shows historical low values, about 125% of decrease from the previous low of 2007 and about 38% of decrease from the low of 2000 !!!

Notes.
The points 'A', 'C', and 'D' (in part) are not dangerous for the US stocks-market in short-term, because of absence of reversal signs.
The points 'B', 'E' and 'D' (in part) are dangerous (or very dangerous) for the US stocks-market, because of hard overvaluation of US stocks-market (although it is necessary to consider the current tsunami of liquidity from Central Banks). This consideration is according to previous posts (4), (5), (6).
The period July-November is very dangerous for the stocks-market if there will not values of indicator above the current double tops.
Moreover, search for the SellOff-sign !!!
According to NYSE Margin Debt curve, the US stocks benchmarks are in a situation ''' summer 1987-like ''' (7) ???
It is also important an evaluation of current levels of P/E & P/B of main Wall Street benchmarks.

References.
(1) - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margin_debt.asp
(2) - http://seekingalpha.com/article/1982341-nyse-margin-debt-hits-record-444_93-billion-in-december-risk-rank-at-no-1
(3) - http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8
(4) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264274166_Some_notescharts_about_Q-Ratio
(5) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7639603#post7639603
(6) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7646369#post7646369
(7) - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1987-01-01&en=1989-01-01&id=p27554963019

Chart sources.
❖ AdvisorPerspectives.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 515 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 620 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 628 KB
  • #924
  • Aug 6, 2014 4:33am Aug 6, 2014 4:33am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about S&P500 Price/Adj.Earnings.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is an alternative view of the current graphical situation of the ratio of Price to Adjusted Earnings.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
The main graphical elements are on the attached chart (obtained from this 📈📉).

Chart sources.
❖ ScottGrannis.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg7REservoSOVRANO.jpg Size: 603 KB
  • #925
  • Aug 7, 2014 8:19am Aug 7, 2014 8:19am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about CAPE curve.

Aim of the post.
The following modified attached chart shows the CAPE Indicator (����) in order to assess the current evaluation of US stocks.
CAPE curve is the ratio of EPSK (or EPS adjusted to constant prices), measured by its average over a number of recent years (10 being the most usual), to EPSK, measured since the data series start in 1987.

Previous charts.
❖ 2011-chart.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
This curve shows an important overvaluation of the US stocks-market, well above the previous tops, but well below the historical (and hysterical) top of 1999/2000.
Is this CAPE situation stable in mid-term ???

Chart sources.
❖ SmithersCoUk.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 698 KB
  • #926
  • Edited 12:42pm Aug 10, 2014 12:31pm | Edited 12:42pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about US stocks evaluation in the current financial ecosystem.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some notes about the current level of US stocks evaluation, in order to obtain a preliminar view on this important question, particularly based on various types of P/E.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
A.) Simple or nominal P/E shows current values below the top critical zone of overvaluation; but this curve do not shows anticipatory and/or correlate behaviours vs. S&P500 curve (see also the Barron's 50 Stocks Index);
B.1.) The P/E10 curve shows in-time and highly correlated values with underlying; current levels shows overvaluation of S&P500, but does not take into account the factor ''OverLiquidity''.
B.2.) According to distance low-top of the 4 phases of P/E10 curve, we have the following increases of values from the 4 bottoms: 6.79X, 3.96X, 2.65X, 6.70X; the average is 5.02X. From the last low (13.3 of 2008/2009) we have the following theoretical target: mean as 66.83 (min-max: 35.24-90.3).
C.1.) Also the P/E-Crestmont curve shows in-time and highly correlated values with underlying, and with a more important overvaluation of S&P500 (and without the factor ''OverLiquidity'').
C.2.) According to distance low-top of the phases of P/E-Crestmont curve, we have the following increases of values (mean & min-max): 3.16X, 1.85-4.82X. From the last low (12.3 of 2008/2009) we have the following theoretical target: mean as 38.87 (min-max: 22.76-59.29).
F.) Current Price/Book of S&P500 is 2.5-3.75X lower than 1998/2002 (see gray boxes) !!!
G.) Recent curve structure of S&P500 Dividend Yield shows two important tops, very similar to previous secular points of accumulation.
H.) The recent bottom (secular) of curve of B50 earnings yield% and B50 dividend yield% are compatible with the previous accumulation points.
I.) The % ratio between bond yields vs. stock yields of B50 index shows a continuos descending pattern from 2002, with current levels well below the 1-line, and with two recent important spikes: 2001/2003 crisis (Bond vs Stocks 3:1); 2008/2009 crisis (Bond vs Stocks 5:1). Current curve position is very similar to (~) 1973-1980, 1958/1967, spikes of 1946/1947 and 1937/1938.

Notes.
The three P/E (A, B, C) does not take into account the factor ''OverLiquidity'' or ''Tsunami Liquidity'' from Central Banks; moreover we are in a long-term phase (post 2009) with highly compressed & low rates. This conclusion is the same from the notes about NYSE Margin Debt, Q-Ratio and Regression Trend (8), (1), (2); for these two reasons (Tsunamy Liqiuidity & Compressed-Low Rates), the current overvaluation of the US stocks must be (statistically) corrected ???
The US stocks, according to previous P/E10 (B.2.), are very undervalued vs. its average (about of 2.60X) and well undervalued vs. its minimum level (about of 1.37X). According to previous P/E-Crestmont (C.2.), the US stocks are well undervalued vs. its average (about of 1.71X), and a little overvalued vs. its minimum level.
The P/Adj.E also shows a possible pattern of accumulation, post-2009, as we can see from the evolution of historical curve (3).
US stocks P/B is very undervalued vs. peak values of 1998/2002 and well undervalued vs. levels of 1994/1998. Moreover there are some signs on the B50 curves & S&P500 Dividend Yield of recent accumulation !!!
Buffett Indicator and CAPE Indicator instead shows a very hard overvaluation (4) (5). See also the post of professor Carlisle for a statistical view (6), and the MorningStars twitts for a countries point of view (7). NYSE Margin Debt curve shows the same overvaluation but without exhaustion signs (8).
According to the data showed above, there is an important level of ovevaluation of US stocks, but this overvaluation is not corrected by the unprecedented double level of Tsunamy Liqiuidity & Compressed-Low Rates, inside the financial ecosistems.
For these two reasons, and with their persistence, overvalued markets are stable, but with high probability, in the next 1-3 quarters, of graphical (shock) phenomena similar to summer-autumn/1987.

References.
(1.)- https://www.researchgate.net/publica...tio?ev=prf_pub
(2.)- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post7639603
(3.)- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post7654200
(4.)- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7646369
(5.)- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7658174
(6.)- http://greenbackd.com/2014/08/04/bul...nitude-update/
(7.)- http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/4...5-post562.html
(8.)- https://www.researchgate.net/publica...gin_Debt_curve

Chart sources.
❖ AdvisorPerspectives.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ������ ).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 811 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 628 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 591 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 974 KB
  • #927
  • Edited 6:01am Aug 11, 2014 5:44am | Edited 6:01am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about S&P500 and DAX vs. their 200 day averages.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the 200 day averages of the S&P500 and DAX, as the followings: % away between benchmark to its 200 daily average (long term in simple %; short term in Standard Deviation); S&P500 and DAX % of stocks above its 200 daily average. This is a preliminar technical and breadth view, in order to obtain qualitative data about the main trend of the two bechmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
S&P500 current situation is more robust than DAX.
Infact, according to its 200 daily moving average, DAX shows an important attempt (or advanced attempt) of reversal of the main trend, at the start of August (S&P only a correction).
The breadth of the August graphical behaviour, shows an advanced reversal of main trend for DAX, and only a secondary correction in S&P500.
A continuation-bear of the DAX curve will cause the complete reversal in bearish-status of this critical European stocks benchmark.

Chart sources.
❖ ShortSideOfLong; IndexIndicators.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ������ ).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 565 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
  • #928
  • Aug 15, 2014 8:11am Aug 15, 2014 8:11am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there is the up-date of curve evolution of ratio Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.

Previous posts.
► Mar.2013 -- Nov.2012 -- Jul.2012.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
The ratio-curve shows an interesting reversal attempt in current summer.
Actual behaviour of ratio exhibits an ascending test of M/10, the most important since the top of 2011.
Some average indicators (MACD, PPO, TRIX) performs important signs as divergences on critical lows, but without crosses of mid-lines (preliminar but not-validated signals), and with an important local top in 2014.
Coppoc curve instead, exhibits a first complete reversal signal.
In the previous bullish phases of the ratio, the pure-technology segment was very strong vs. biotech., with the global benchmarks in bullish status (1995-2000; 2002-2007; 2009/2011).
In 2014 there will be the start of a scenario like 1995/2000 or 2002/2007 or 2009-2011 (biotech. underforming vs. pure-tech.) ???
Tops of 2014 are in July for Nd/Composite, and in February for Nd/Biotech.

M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average is a combination of the following curve (yellow-lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts; FreeStockCharts; StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact 📈📉).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 564 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 830 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 1.7 MB
  • #929
  • Aug 16, 2014 8:42am Aug 16, 2014 8:42am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the Gov.Bond 10y yield spread Germany vs. USA.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there is a short view of the historical curve of the the Gov.Bond 10y yield spread Germany vs. USA, after the historical low of Bund yield below 1% (1).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
From ''80 years the spread curve shows an interesting inverse (and anticipatory) behaviour vs. US Wilshire-5k (see vertical white lines).
The main trend of spread is bearish, with an interesting descending rectangle from lows of 2006 about (possible bearish target as dotted red-line).
A graphical structure very important is the horizontal zone from mid ''90 years until now !!!
This structure is a Graphical📈📉Contest among 3 tops & 3 lows (see blue-squares), with a mid-level about at -0.45%. Possible targets (up & down) as dark-red columns on the right.
Current spread values (-1.39%) are well below the mid-level, and very near to basal level (-1.5% about); for this reason there is a high probability breaking of bearish breaks of this contest.
A failure of bearish break is an anticipatory signal of top on Wilshire-5k???
A continuation-bear of spread toward the targets-area, is an anticipatory signal of a new bullish run of Wilshire-5k ???
Current Bund yield is at its lowest ever (1).

References.
(1.) http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/40821952-post475.html

Chart sources.
❖ StLouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact 📈📉).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 898 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg7REservoSOVRANO.jpg Size: 496 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ZXY-KèSaddhàPhàPèKampà0331.jpg Size: 289 KB
  • #930
  • Edited Aug 18, 2014 4:57am Aug 17, 2014 3:23pm | Edited Aug 18, 2014 4:57am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about iShare Fund on MSCI Ireland Index ETF [EIRL].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...L%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #931
  • Edited Aug 18, 2014 4:56am Aug 17, 2014 3:29pm | Edited Aug 18, 2014 4:56am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about iShare Fund on MSCI Poland Index ETF [EPOL].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...L%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #932
  • Edited Aug 18, 2014 4:56am Aug 17, 2014 3:36pm | Edited Aug 18, 2014 4:56am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF [FEU].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...U%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #933
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:51pm Aug 17, 2014 3:51pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the European ETF FEU, EZU, IEV.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some graphical notes about the long term structures of these European ETF: FEU, EZU, IEV.

Previous posts.
❖ FEU, EZU, IEV.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
-) Yearly candles.
As we can see from the attached charts, there are 3 inside candles for the 3 ETF, with their mid-levels (or switch level between bull or bearish positions) and the possible up-targets (right columns).
For FEU and EZU, the upper level of 2009 inside (or upper Graphical💣Ɖetonator) is about coincident with some giants priceXvolume columns; in IEV there is coincidence with the mid-point of 2009 candle and the basal level of inside of 2011.
Current prices of FEU and EZU are on the upper Graphical💣Ɖetonator; current prices in IEV are a little above the top of inside, and well above the 2009-top.
-) Monthly ema-format.
There is an interesting horizontal rectangle from 2009 about (upper level: tops of 2009-2011; basal level: lows of 2010-2011-2012; mid-level in gray as switch-zone).
Current prices are in a correction phase on their upper levels. Below this upper level there are some main ema (24, 48, 96 mo.) and also the gray mid-level.
Until this key zone (in blue) the chart structure is again in bullish-status; below this blue zone, the chart structure switch in local bearish status until to the lows of 2011/2012.
The area between the ''mid-level of horizontal rectangle'' and the ''mid-level of yearly inside'' is the maximum extension of the current corrective phase, that the bullish structure from 2008/2009 can allow.

Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact 📈📉).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 882 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 1.4 MB
  • #934
  • Aug 18, 2014 4:55am Aug 18, 2014 4:55am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about iShares MSCI Norway Capped ETF [ENOR].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...R%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #935
  • Aug 18, 2014 5:00am Aug 18, 2014 5:00am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF [ERUS].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...S%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #936
  • Aug 18, 2014 5:06am Aug 18, 2014 5:06am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF [FEZ].

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves of this European ETF.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...Z%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #937
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:24am Aug 21, 2014 9:24am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the history of default events published by Economist.(1)

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data obtained from the daily chart of Economist 31 July 2014 (Usual suspects) on the history of dafault events from 1800 (1).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
Totals.
181 defaults in 214 years about [including the entire 2014; but see (1)] = 0.86 defaults/year.
Totals post 1975.
South & Central America (Mexico excluded) = 35 defaults = 72.9% of defaults or 0.90/year.
Africa = 7 defaults (top country: Nigeria, with 5 events) = 14.6% of defaults.
Russia = 2 defaults = 4.2% of defaults.
Turkey = 2 defaults = 4.2% of defaults.
Europe = 1 default = 2.1 % of defaults.
Mexico = 1 default = 2.1 % of defaults.
Total = 48 defaults in 39 years = 1.23 defaults/year.
Totals per Regions.
South & Central America (Mexico excluded) = 117 defaults = 64.6% of defaults or 0.55/year (top countries: Ecuador; Venezuela).
Africa = 15 defaults = 8.3% of defaults (top country: Nigeria).
Russia = 5 defaults = 2.8% of defaults.
Turkey = 8 defaults = 4.4 % of defaults.
Europe = 28 defaults = 15.5 % of defaults (top country: Greece).
Mexico = 8 defaults = 4.4 % of defaults.

Notes.
-) The frequency per year of defaults shows an important increase from 1975, + 0.37/year, or +43.0% of slope increase.
-) South & Central America (Mex.excl.) is the region most dangerous for the default events, with the first 8 positions.
-) S.&C.l America (Mex.excl.), exhibits an important increase of risk from 1975, with a slope increase from 0.55/year to 0.90/year, or +0.35/year (+63.6% of slope increase).
-) Africa [not complete data (1)] shows 7/15 events in the last 39 years, with about a 2X of relative events of default.
-) The top countries of phase post-1975, shows some incredible (local) performances of stocks-market.

References.
(1.)-http://www.economist.com/node/21610342

Chart sources.
❖ Economist; TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 701 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 633 KB
  • #938
  • Aug 27, 2014 7:41am Aug 27, 2014 7:41am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the Barron's Confidence Index.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the Barron's Confidence Index.
The Barron's Confidence Index (BCI) is a ratio calculated by dividing the average yield-to-maturity of the best grade bond vs. the average yield-to-maturity of the intermediate grade bond (1), (2), (3).
The discrepancy between the yields is indicative of investor confidence. A rising ratio indicates investors are demanding a lower premium in yield for increased risk and so are showing confidence in the economy.
The theory is that if investors are optimistic they are more likely to invest in the more speculative grade of bonds, driving its yields downwards (denominator of BCI) and the BCI upwards. The opposite is true if investors are pessimistic (decrease of BCI numerator). The ratio is lower when the intermediate grade average bond yield is rising faster, or at least, falling more slowly than the best-grade bonds.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
-) The global graphical structure of last 10 years shows a descending array, with a very deep low in 2008 (important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlyings). Moreover there is a giant blue (descending) cup 2008-2011 of 39 points. Current curve is in the upper half of this structure, and, for this reason, the actual curve evolution is a secondary descending mouvement inside this blue cup.
-) According to main trend-lines of ETF SPY, there are some very important divergences in the curve behaviour of BCI and S&P500 Index, with BCI very negative.
-) The ascending line between lows of 2008-2012 is above the price-curve in 2014 (bearish status), according also to the bearish position of the 50 weekly-average line.
-) Price-curve are inside the red (bold) descending rectangle 2009 until now (see the bearish down target in dotted-line). Current curve is a little below the basal half of this structure, and, for this reason, the actual curve evolution is in a dangerous reversal attempts inside this red channel.
-) Price-curve are also inside the red (thin) descending rectangle from 2011 top until now.
-) The short-term gray cup 2011-2013, shows a bearish evolution, with price curve below the mid line (theoretical targets as dx gray columns).
-) There is an important price set-up (''?'' zone) for BCI: a) blue cup mid level; b) base of red channel; c) base of gray cup.

Notes.
The 10y graphical structure of BCI shows a dangerous descending array of curve, with current levels in bearish status, below the main weekly average, and directed toward the set-up (''?''-zone).
BCI curve (consistently & persistently) below ''?'' is a very negative sign for the market stability, with possible fast downward of benchmarks (see 2008 evolution).
BCI curve (consistently & persistently) above the thin descending rectangle can cause an important positive reversal of market confidence as measured by BCI, with possible bullish impacts on underlyings.
It is important to compare this indicator to other Bond yield indicators, in order to obtain a more complete view on this market phase.

References.
(1.)-http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-wyldgp.html
(2.)-[url]http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/barronsconfidenceindex.asp
(3.)-http://www.allbusiness.com/glossaries/barrons-confidence-index/4959301-1.html

Chart sources.
❖ Barrons.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact 📈📉).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 666 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 426 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 584 KB
  • #939
  • Aug 29, 2014 8:19am Aug 29, 2014 8:19am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the Moody's Baa vs. Aaa US Corporate Bond Yields Indicator.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the Moody's Baa vs. Aaa US Corporate Bond Yields Indicator.
The Baa vs. Aaa indicator is a ratio calculated by dividing the average yield of the first bond group vs. the second (1).
The credit ratings of Aaa and Baa are the two ends of the ratings spectrum for investment-grade corporate bonds as provided by the Moody's rating agency (bonds rated below Baa are considered to be non-investment grade).
The discrepancy between the yields is indicative of investor confidence. A descending ratio indicates investors are demanding a lower premium in yield for increased risk and so are showing confidence in the economy.
The yield difference or ratio between bonds with these ratings has historically indicated whether the economy was in a period of recession or expansion.
The theory is that if investors are optimistic they are more likely to invest in the more speculative bonds (inferior rating), driving its yields downwards (numerator of Indicator) with Baa/Aaa that shows a descending behaviour.
The opposite is true if investors are pessimistic (increase of numerator): the ratio shows increase (investor pessimism increase) when the Baa bond yield is rising faster, or at least, falling more slowly than the Aaa.
For this reason the Baa/Aaa is a stress indicator of financial markets, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
In this post there are the two formats:
ratio curves, in logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ), with napier base (base = e);
spread curve, linear.
According to the previous post about the Barron's Confidence Index (2), in this post the comments are on the ratio-format of indicator.

Previous posts.
❖ June.2012 -- Aug.2011.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
-) Until 2013, Baa/Aaa shows an important ascending-array from 2000 (see blue channel), with curve well above the mid-level of yellow basal band (historical range of oscillation of this ratio). There are also two monstre peaks in 2008/2009 and 2012/2013.
-) In 2013-2014 there is a Sell ʕ•ᴥ•ʔ Off of Baa/Aaa, with values inside the yellow band and below its mid-level, below the blue channel, and below the levels of 2007.
-) The sequence of divergences of the phase 2004-2008 (blue arrows) are absent in the current phase (red arrows).
-) The previous crisis of WebTechTlc and Gov.Bonds shows similar levels (see spread format).
-) Actual curve behaviour (II & III quarters of 2014) shows a little loss of momentum or a little divergence.

Notes.
Global 14y structure shows a complete stress-less situation on the Baa/Aaa.
There is only a short-term divergence between Baa/Aaa vs. underlyings, but in safe zone (yellow band, near mid-level).

References.
(1.)-http://www.ehow.com/info_12107367_differences-between-aaa-vs-baa-corporate-bond-yields.html
(2.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7700556#post7700556

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

Historical Curve Components
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=H9C
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=H64
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IPG
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IPt
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 539 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg7.jpg Size: 440 KB
  • #940
  • Aug 29, 2014 5:13pm Aug 29, 2014 5:13pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the BoA Merrill Lynch BBB/AAA US Corporate Bond Yields Indicator.

Aim of the post.
☒ In this post there are some data about the BoA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Bond Yields Indicator.
The BBB/AAA indicator is a ratio calculated by dividing the average yield of the first bond group vs. the second, as for Moody's indicator (1).
The theory of this ratio is very similar to Moody's indicator: if investors are optimistic they are more likely to invest in the more speculative bonds (inferior rating), driving its yields downwards (numerator of Indicator) with BBB/AAA that shows a descending behaviour.
For this reason the Baa/Aaa is a stress indicator of financial markets, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
In this post there are the two formats:
ratio curves, in logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ), with napier base (base = e);
spread curve, linear.
According to the previous post about the Barron's Confidence Index (2) and Moody's indicator (1), in this post the comments are on the ratio-format of indicator.

Previous posts.
❖

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
-) The main trend of BBB/AAA indicator is ascending until now, with increasing levels of tops from 2002/2003, to 2008/2009 to 2012 (white channel) !!!
-) From the last top (2012) we can see an important Sell ʕ•ᴥ•ʔ Off, but again above the previous lows of 2008/2009 !!!
-) Moreover, current levels are well above the previous lows of 2006/2007, and in intercept of the base of white channel.
-) Actual curve behaviour (II & III quarters of 2014) shows a little loss of momentum or a little divergence vs. underlyings.
-) The sequence of divergences of the phase 2004-2006 (blue arrows) are absent in the current phase (red arrows).

Notes.
If the ratio goes well below the white channel there will be an important signal of loss of stress inside this indicator, with possible positive (bullish) impact on underlyings.
A continuous permanence of ratio inside the white ascending channel will cause an increase of financial stress of this indicator, with possible local graphical shock phenomena on stock benchmarks.
A very interesting graphical element is the different peak of ratio vs. spread format.

References.
(1.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7705873#post7705873
(2.)-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7700556#post7700556

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful (Contact ����).
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

Historical Curve Components
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=IS8
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...raph.png?g=ISa
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 455 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg6.jpg Size: 326 KB
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