Macroeconomic Analysis

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Some notes/charts about the qualitative-visual correlation between the U.S. corporate profit data vs. curve evolution of Dow Jones Composite Average Index.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is an attempt of correlation (qualitative only) between the data obtained from the corporate profits and the curve of Dow Jones Composite Average Index in the period 1970-2013.
The data of corporate profits are provided in ratio-format (see notes below the text).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖

Main graphical elements.
The ratio between the ''Corporate Net Cash Flow with IVA'' vs. ''Corporate Profits After Tax with IVA and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAd) shows an interesting qualitative correlation.

The tops of this ratio (yellow circles) are coincidents with the DJ-C.A.I. bottoms in 6 out of 7 cases from 1970.

The bottom of 1987 is a little after the top of ratio-indicator. Now the level of ratio-indicator shows values about in-line with its historical lows.

The raio between ''Net Dividends of Corporate Profits after tax with IVA & CCAd'' vs. ''Corporate Profits After Tax with IVA & CCAd'' shows a similar pattern (yellow circles), with a good coincidences of its tops vs. DJ-C.A.I. bottoms in ''70, ''80 and in the recession of 2008-2009, but an important anticipatory behaviour in ''90 and ''2000-2002 crisis. Now the level of ratio-indicator shows values not stressed but with an important top-spike in 2013.
The raio between Corporate Profits without IVA & CCAd ''after tax vs. before tax'', do not shows a regular pattern of behaviour vs. DJ-C.A.I. key-levels in ''70, ''80.

Considerations.
The components of the first two ratio-indicators are positively related to the curve behaviour of DJ-C.A.I. post-1970, and

it is desirable to further study of this correlation.

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
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I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
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NOTES on ratio-indicators
The curves of the ratio-indicators are obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator.
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained, because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator vs. second component.
It is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute values (prices).

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Some notes/charts about the CBOE Put/Call LEAPS curve (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities).

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some notes about the CBOE Put vs. Call ratio called LEAPS, an indicator option-based and about contrarian to underlyings main trend.
Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAPS) are long-term option contracts that allow investors to establish positions that can be maintained for a period of up to three years.
Obviously the study of this indicator must be coordinated to the study of others P/C indicators (total, indexes, equity, CBOE, ISE/EUREX) and the study of the Volatility & BuyWrite indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ June.2010; Jan.2011; Jan.2012; Jan.2013.

Main graphical elements.
From the previous charts, we can see that investors, in 2005 (II quarter) / 2006 (I quarter), were over-invested in puts for long-term on S&P500 (LEAPS > 1.0-line).
According to the double-tops of 2005/2006, the long-term investors on CBOE-options investors have bet violently in puts>>calls, with 10/8 quarters in advance from the 2007-top, with 14/12 quarters from 2008-lows, and with 15/13 quarters from 2009-lows.
The SellOff of underlyings start when the curve goes above the descending dotted-line (tops of 2005-2006) in the second half of 2007 !!!
In 2010 the curve goes in a second SkyRocket phase, with a top in the first quarter of 2010 (strong reversal of investor-positions in option-market, with puts>>calls and curve well above 1.0-line) !!!
There is also a similar behavioural pattern of curve vs. main trend-lines in 2010 vs. 2005/2006 !!!
The actual chart-structure of LEAPS shows the following graphical elements.
*) Curve inside the horizontal rectangle (see two binary elements with white-squares); no signs of financial stress.
*) Curve in descending-array from Nov.-Dec.2012, inside a red-rectangle area, in set-up with the target (dotted) of the ascending green channel.
*) Curve in 2011 goes well above the descending & dotted-line from the 2010-top (the parallel to descending-line from 2005-2006 tops); also in this case with an important bear phase on underlyings, but with indicator < 1.0-level !!!
*) Curve is outside of a giant blue triangle (up red-line from 2005-top; down green-line from 2010/2011/2012 lows) with a target on the basal binary levels.
*) Curve is outside of an important ascending green rectangle, with target (dotted-green) a little below the basal binary levels, and in set-up with the base of descending red-rectangle.

Considerations.
Question: it is possible to observe the same count & time-evolution, seen in 2005/2006 (tops of indicator) vs. 2007/2009 (top&lows of underlyings) ??? If yes, the next theoretical time-targets are the followings (SPY-ETF or S&P500 Index):
a) according to Mar.-Apr.2010 top of indicator: a1) next stocks top at Apr.-June.2012; a2) next stocks low May-July.2013;
b) according to Sep.2011 top of indicator: b1) next stocks top at Sep.-Nov.2013; b2) next stocks low Oct.-Dec.2014;
c) according to Nov.2012 top of indicator: c1) next stocks top at Apr.-Nov.2014-Jan.2015; c2) next stocks low Dec.2015-Feb.2016.
Curve well below the triple set-up pink-area (basal binary levels vs. red descending channel vs. bearish target of green channel) is the possible sign of a new important ascending phase on underlyings in mid-term (2-3 years).
The time-targets of a1, a2 and b1 are about realized, with values of LEAPS inside the horizontal binary band (no stress area).
Actual curve evolution (from the top of dec.2012) shows a continuation-bear toward the lows of chart from 2004; this is a sign of premium for a continuation of bullish positions in S&P500 ???
Alert on the next possible key time-points (IV/2014 & I/2016).

Chart sources.

❖ MarketHarmonics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

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Some notes/charts about the CBOE volatility global evaluators of U.S. stocks-market and intermarket.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some personal volatility indicartors, based on CBOE curves of volatility, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings, and with interesting anticipatory behaviours (see key levels of 2008-2009 vs. underlyings).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

❖ Previous studies on Global U.S. Volatility Indicator: Aug.2011 -- Jan.2012 -- Jan.2012.
❖ Previous studies on Global InterMarkets Volatility Indicator: July.2010 -- Aug.2010 -- July.2011 -- Jan.2012 -- May.2013.

Main graphical elements.
-) In the chart I there is the simple arithmetic mean of the CBOE indicator of S&P500, Nd/100, R-2k, Dow Jones 30, in order to obtain a global indicator evaluator of U.S. stocks-market volatility.
This indicator shows a ''monstre'' continuation-bear of curve, with very low stress inside stocks-market.
This indicator is at the bottom-zone, according to 4 stocks-benchmarks !!!
The gray-cup is in bearish-status, with important graphical pressure in bearish sense, and with a theoretical ''collapsed-target''.
The bearish pressure on this curve will be hard & strong until to the binary lows of 2010/2011; the bearish pressure will be stopped with curve above the top of 2006; the bearish pressure will be in reversal attempt with curve above the key values of first half of 2008 !!!
Alert on the recent blue structure (double tops at 21/22 levels), in local divergence vs. underlyings, because of low of curve in 2013 (quarte I) and tops of underlyings in 2014 (quarter I). A bullish activation of this structure shows a target well above the 2006 key-level (see the first half zone of 2008 !!!). A bearish activation of this structure will cause a collapsed-target of curve with a possible new ''monstre'' loss of stress of U.S. stocks-market.
The blue structure is the possible local GraphicalƉetonator.
The main trend and the secondary trend are in important bearish-array for this indicator.
Only the local trend shows a little loss of momentum according to price-behaviour of underlyings.
-) In the chart II there is the ratio between ''' the simple arithmetic average of the two most important CBOE volatility ind. (VIX & VXN) with a correction factor based on the frame. 1mo. vs. 3mo. ''' vs. ''' VIX or CBOE volatility of S&P/500 1mo. '''.
The indicator is splitted in positive and negative curves (negative or red curve has a negative impact on underlyings).
In this double and corrected version of indicator, we can see the stop of bearish main trend at the two key-levels of 2012 !!! From this level there is an important reversal attempt of two curves, with values near to 1-line, AND with some attempts of position reversals of green & red curves (see also the last action).
Actual array of two curves, shows a new & local attempt of position reversals, with the negative curve above the 1-line and the green curve below the 1-line.
Moreover, from the two tops of 2012 (or lows of 2012) this indicator shows a continuation-divergence (loss of momentum) vs. underlyings.
Only with values beyond the red trend-lines there will be the break of this divergence: a continuation-bull of red-curve above 1-line is a dangerous sign for the up-trend of underlyings; a red-curve well above the descending red trend-lines is a possible dangerous structural signal for the up-trend of underlyings.
According to the average indicator with the correction-factor, there are some short & mid term dangerous elements for the stability of up-trend of underlyings, with possible bearish-reversal if there will be a continuation-bull of the red-curve (or a continuation-bear of the green curve).
-) In the chart III there is a the Global Intermarket Volatility Indicator, a personal volatility evaluator of the financial markets. This curve is CBOE-based, and obtained from VIX-method on 1 mo., with a wide range of strike prices. The various financial market segments are: Au (as option volatility of ETF GLD); €/US$ (as option volatility of ETF ERO); WTI-Oil (as option volatility of ETF USO options); S&P500 (1mo. & 3 mo.); Nd/100.
The simple average curve and the curve with two correction-factors (see chart IV), shows the same complete bearish-array of the chart I, with the financial stress well below the bottom zone from 2008 !!!
Also for the chart I, the gray-cup is in bearish-status, with important graphical pressure in bearish sense, and with a theoretical ''collapsed-target''.
The two indicators (III & IV) shows an interesting recent double-lows (blue-area), with an important impact an the future evolution of intermarket stress: below the blue-area there will be a collapsed-target of these two indicators; above the blue-area (see blue-columns) there will be an important reversal attempt (in mid-term frame) of bearish trend of the two indicators (negative impact on underlyings).
The main trend and the secondary trend are in important bearish-array for this indicator. Local structure do not shows danger signs.

Notes.
The global volatility of U.S. stocks-market & Intermarket are well below the 2008 lows and in-line (or a little below) the 2006-2007 lows. According to these 4 evaluators, the financial market shows a totally stress-less profile.
A little alert is the blue structures of the charts I, III, IV; a more important alert (but theoretically only) is the 2012-2014 divergence between red (and/or green) curve of chart II vs. underlyings.

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

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Some notes/charts about a simple working-hypothesis on the possible correlation between Q.E./III and the next corrective phase on U.S. stocks-market.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a very simple working-hypothesis on the possible correlation between Q.E./III and the next (or actual) corrective phase on U.S. stocks-market.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
The FED annouced in December 2013 and January 2014, two steps in order to decrease the Q.E./III in action (steps called ''tapering''). See the first chart (and this LINK) for the main steps of Q.E. interventions.
The actual Q.E./III level is US$ 65 bln/month (30 MBS & 35 TSY), from 85 bln/month in the phase pre December 2013.
The percentage of decrease is about 23.5%.
Now, the next hypothetical correction of the U.S. stocks-benchmarks, from the recent tops (see chart II for 4 US key-ETF) may be the following:
1-) benchmark losses = Q.E. decrease, then the U.S. stocks are totally Q.E. dependent (?);
2-) benchmark losses < Q.E. decrease, then the U.S. stocks strength > of Q.E. strength (?);
3-) benchmark losses > Q.E. decrease, then the U.S. stocks strength < of Q.E. strength (?).

Notes.
Hypothesis '1': financial conditions are weak; if tapering do not stop, then there will be an important phase of financial stress (?).
Hypothesis '2': financial conditions are healthy; if the tapering gently stops, then there should not be high stress conditions (?).
Hypothesis '3': financial conditions are very weak and dangerous, with possible important increase of financial stress (?).

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://brazilianbubble.com/zulauf-on...onary-episode/

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Some notes/charts about the historical curve of Debt/GDP ratio of Italy.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some graphical annotations on the historical chart of Debt/GDP ratio of Italy. These charts have only a theoretical and graphical value, without macroeconomic implications.
The original chart (see n.IV) is kindly provided by: J.C.Mussa, il debito pubblico italiano è ai livelli del ventennio di Mussolini (March 05 2013).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI);
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
In the chart I there is a personal Elliott view of the historical chart pattern of ratio.
If the wave counts is correct, the actual structure (blue markers) is impulsive, with possible targets marked with ''?''.
In the chart II there are some channels. Actual curve action is inside the ascending and gray channel, in ascending impact with the target of a previous descending and dotted channel. These two channels shows a very important set-up zone or the curve (see also the upper level of the side-descending channel).
In the chart III there is a large cup & handle (or an irregular H&S) now in action on the neck (or a little above).
The possible bullish price-target is showed by the purple column.
The first step for a reversal in bearish status, there will be below the two horizontal lines (almost coincident with the level of 50% of cup-area).
The chart V is the giant review of the previous transformed charts.

Notes.
There will be a possible continuation of SkyRocket of ratio above the actual levels of chart (target of dotted channel in set-up with the neck of C&H).
Only with curve well below the white horizontal level (82-72%), there will be a reversal of ratio in bearish array.

Chart sources.
❖ ItAdviseOnly.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

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Some notes/charts about the intraday giant spikes of BitCoin prices.

Aim of the post.
This post is a mini review of the last 4 months of BitCoin charts, in order to recognize the intraday Collapse&Recovery / SkyRocket&Recovery (or giant spikes) of the crypto-currency.
The most recent and important intraday Collapse&Recovery was that of BTC-e (see reference & chart).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Sep.2013.

Main elements.
The main BitCoin markets are reviewed for this purpose, according to BitCoinCharts; these markets are 41 but only 13 have regular prices of BitCoin vs. US$ in the last 4mo.
The intraday giant spikes (black charts; candles marked with yellow arrows near to tops/lows) are presents in 5 markets:
Asia Nexgem, Btc-e (one bearish: Dec.2013, Feb.2014);
BitKonan (two: bearish in Dec.2013 & bullish in Jan.2014);
Ripple (two bearish in Dec.2013 and Jan.2014);
LocalBitCoins (three bullish in Feb.2014; but see the chart).
The size of bearish giant spikes are very similar in 4 markets (71-89%) except in Ripple, with an intraday loss of 98% about !!!
The size of bullish intraday spikes are 3X-6.25X.
LocalBitCoins shows intraday prices highly irregular (see the chart).

Notes.
BitCoin is a very recent currencies and also not-regular.
BitCoin markets are a little liquids.
Performance from the start of MtGox chart, shows a 0.01 to 1200 US$ SkyRocket, a 120000X.
Actual price is about at 50% below of historical top.
Some countries have outlawed BitCoin.
With these data, the intraday giant spikes are not ''very rare'' events, particularly with news regarding the stability and legality of the markets of BitCoins.

Chart sources.
❖ BitCoinCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

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Some notes/charts about the peak of stocks in 1929 of the Elliott Wave Pattern.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are the chart patterns of CRB Index, D.J. Corporate Bond Index, and Stocks Index of the 1918-1932 according to ElliottWave.com model (1)(2).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Moore pattern (3).

Main graphical elements.
See the attached charts.

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

Bibliography.
(1) http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2014/02/03/Stocks-Peak-One-Year-After-Bonds-(History-Set-to-Repeat).aspx
(2) http://www.ino.com/blog/2014/02/stoc...set-to-repeat/
(3) http://www.researchgate.net/publicat..._Moore_pattern

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about the employment curves of Italy.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a mini review of employment and unemployment charts of Italy.
The aim is to shows the main graphical trends underlyings the Italian job-market.
Comments will be carried chart by chart.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI);
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
A. Long term unemployment rate. - This curve show an important topping-area in 1995-1998, with values above the 7% level. This top has been achieved recently, but not surpassed, and the actual values are below the 7% level. The main trend-line of the last ascending phase, shows an intercept at 5.0-5.5% level for the next 12mo.
B. Youth unemployment rate. - This curve shows a monstre SkyRocket, with more than 2X from the bottom of 2007/2008, and +10% about from the previous tops !!! Actual curve-action is inside an ascending rectangle, with values about in impact with superior line. The great gray-cup shows a final target at 47-48%. This chart is a symbol of actual macroeconomic crisis of Italy.
C. Unemployment rate. - The chart structure is very similar to the previous youth-curve (B), with impressive gray-area and a % target at 17% & more. The spread between the actual top and the previous tops is << to youth curve, but there is a similar magnitude bottom vs. actual top (> 2X).
The main trend-line of the last ascending phase, shows an intercept at 10.0-11.0% level for the next 12mo.
D. Unemployed persons. - From the lows of 2007/2008 there is an increase of slope (blue vs. green channel) started in 2011.
E. Part-time employed. - This curve shows a continuation-bull from the start of the chart, with an important increase of slope (blue vs. green channel) from 2001/2003 crisis, with actual values as top of chart !!!
F. Self-employed. - This curve shows a continuation-bear from the top of the chart (2000 about), with actual level in-line with the previous tops of ''80.
G. Labor force partecipation rate. - This curve shows an important but local ''momentum loss'' from 2004, with actual slope of curve in descending direction. There is an alert sign for the continuation-bull of the values inside the gray-channel.
H. Unemployment as labor-force %. - This curve shows an important reversal behaviour in 2007, year of low of chart. Values of curve now are well above the descending channel, with a possible target (dottod line) more than 2X of 2007-lows.
I. Retirement age vs. life expectancy. - The retirement age of female shows an important increase from 2009 (+3.5y), but there is a very large spread vs. the life expectancy(1), particularly if compared to males (F = 1.65XM).
J. Vulnerable employment. - From 2003 we can see an important increase of percentage, with values well above the tops of ''90.
K. Unemployment with tertiary education. - From 2003 we can see an important increase of percentage, with values (post-2003) a little below 2X the average of 1993-2002.
L. GDP/employed. - This curve shows an important phase of stop of increase from 2000 about, 7-8 year before the top of global GDP/capita. The decrease of GDP > decrease of employed persons.
M. Civilian Employment of all persons. - The main trend of this curve shows a solid ascending-array, with 3 descending pause (red areas). In the small white rectangle there is the actual chart structure of the last pause, started from the top of 2008. The current phase is not more important than the previous two.
In the first phase were lost 1.7-1.8 mil. of employed; in the second phase 0.7-0.8 mil; in the current phase 0.7 mil about.
The phase 1995-2007/2008 shows the greatest positive slope of the curve with +2.8 mil. of employed. From 2001 to 2006 there were Berlusconi/II & Berlusconi/III Cabinets in Italy (2; 3), and in this phase there was the demagogic promise of + 1.5 mil. of employed (4). According to the curve the employed were +1.1-1.2 mil. The females curve do not shows the big current descending phase of the males curve; the employed curve shows a KO only for males component !!! The current slope of curve is negative and very hard (see the white rectangle).
N. Spread Employed vs. Unemployed. - The curve shows a positive main trend until to the reversal top of 2007/2008, and confirm a positive performance during B/II-B/III (see markers). Actual values is about in-line with 2001 values !!!

Notes.
Charts 'B', 'C', 'H' are symbols of this macroeconomic crisis in Italy. According to the curve-action, their ascending evolution is again in-progress (see slope increase in 'D').
According to the charts 'M', 'N', tax burden (5), and the debt/GDP (6), the role and results of Cabinets B/II & B/III, perhaps, should be reassessed.
Inside the employed, the part-time shows a continuation-bull of curve, with recent positive slope increase.
Self-employed is a very negative components of employed persons; 'K' chart is horrible for the future of the not-mature segment (< 50y) of Italian population.
Female shows only a little stop of the ascending action of employment curve; males shows a giant reversal, about in-line with levels of ''70 & ''80 !!!
'L' chart shows that the structural problems of sustainable growth of GDP born about in 2000, well before the tops of employment.
The slope of 'M' & 'N' curves are very negative, without important signs of reversals.

Bibliography.
(1) - http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/80308
(2) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlusconi_II_Cabinet
(3) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlusconi_III_Cabinet
(4) - http://www.promessepubbliche.com/promesse-elettorali/635-la-promessa-di-silvio-berlusconi-di-creare-oltre-un-milione-di-posti-di-lavoro-in-5-anni
(5) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post6420725
(6) - http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/1...pekampa031.jpg


Chart sources.
❖ StLouisFED; TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some macroeconomic charts of Ukraine.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
See charts

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

Looking into trading copper but couldn't find a commodity thread on copper.
As copper price's the ability to predict turning points in the global economy, I'll
post following charts here:
1. Technical
a. Long term view - price came off recoiling complex triangular pattern from early Jan 2014.

b. Short term view - a minor breakout of triangle and reversing

2. Fundamental:
a. recent over supply
b. potential global economic slow down in the next few years.

Any thought and suggestion on that? Thanks

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about the Tech Pulse Indicator of S. Francisco FED.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of the historical curve of the Tech Pulse Index.
This is an index (1) of coincident indicators of activity in the U.S. information technology sector, in order to ''tracks'' the health of the U.S. tech sector. The index extracts the common trend that drives some tech series (IT investments, IT consumptions, IT employment, industrial production & shipments of IT).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
-) the long-term trend is in bearish-array, with an important and impressive double lows (see two recent recessions marked with blue circles);
-) the violet zone is an important area for local reversal of the indicator (key lows of ''80-''90);
-) actual values are little above the zero-level, in the stress-less zone !!!
-) recent MeltDown of 2009 shows an interesting structure as marked in dark-gray.

Notes.
According to upper main trend lines and to violet zone, we can obtain two key levels for the next mouvement of index:
up) curve above the pink-area is the possible key sign of a new important phase of large investments in U.S. tech IT;
down) curve below the violet zone is the possible key sign of large increase of tech financial stress.
Follows these two levels.

Chart sources.
❖ St. Louis FED.

Bibliography.
(1). http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/tech-pulse/

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about some components of Cleveland FED Financial Stress Indicator.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of some components of Cleveland FED Financial Stress Indicators, in order to shows the single behaviours of curves, and the actual phase structure.
These indicators are about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
The Weighted Dollar Crashes shows a very interesting anticipatory behaviour in 2006 vs. stocks market.
In red there is the personal level of stress alert for the US financial system.
Actual phase is stress-less, but not at lows of the previous 3 years.
The Weighted Stocks Market Crashes shows multiple lows in the 2004/2007 (a little anticipatory power).
In red there is the personal level of stress alert for the US financial system.
Actual phase is stress-less, a little above of lows of the previous 3 years.
The Real Estate Market shows an impressive up-trend during the financial collapse of 2007-2009, but inside the main down trend from the start of curve.
Also the anticipatory flat-base is a very interesting behaviour of this sub-indicator.
Actual financial stress inside this sub-indicator is similar to 2000-2006 average.
The Stocks Market shows the same structure of the previous Weighted Crashes.
The Credit Market shows an interesting anticipatory behaviour in 2006 about (see circled area), and actual values at historical lows of financial stress.
The ForEx Market shows the same structure of the previous Weighted Crashes.

Notes.
According to the previous components, the Credit Market and the ForEx Market are very interesting in order to obtain anticipatory data about a financial stress increase.

Chart sources.
❖ St. Louis FED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about some components of Cleveland FED Financial Stress Indicator. Corporate Bond Spread.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of some components of Cleveland FED Financial Stress Indicators, in order to shows the single behaviours of curves, and the chart structure of actual phase.
These indicators are about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
In this post there is the Cleveland sub-Indicator of Corporate Bond Spread, that measures the difference between the 10-Year Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bond yield vs. 10-Year US Treasury yield.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
The curve shows the followings main graphical elements.
-) Long term double lows (1994 vs. 2006-2007) on zero-line.
-) Three ascending tops until the recent of 2008/2009.
-) A detonator zone (+2/+3 pts.: red horizontal-zone) as important bear markers for stocks-market.
-) Actual phase as large side-evolution of curve after the of recent stocks MeltDown.

Note.
According to the main graphical elements, we can see that the curve of Corporate Bond Spread is placed again inside the detonator-zone, with high level of financial stress.
Moreover, the curve structure after top of 2008/2009, is about horizontal.
Only a curve well below the red horizontal-zone, will be about stress-less for Corporate Bonds.
Curve above the red & descending rectangle from 2009, is a very dangerous signal for private bond markets.

Chart sources.
❖ St. Louis FED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about liquidity-spread components of Cleveland FED Financial Stress Indicator.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of some components of Cleveland FED Financial Stress Indicators, in order to shows the single behaviours of curves, and the charts structure of actual phase.
These indicators are about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
In this post there are two liquidity sub-indicators of Cleveland set of financial stress:
the Liquidity Spread (red line) measures changes in the short-term differences in the bid vs. ask prices on 3-Month US Treasuries (= liquidity conditions in financial markets);
the Interbank Liquidity Spread (green line) is the difference between the 3-Month LIBOR vs. 3-Month US Treasury Yield (= interbank liquidity conditions).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
The curves shows the followings main graphical elements.
The red curve shows a continuous up-trend from the low of 2000 about, with an increase of slope from 2003/2004 about (see red rectangle vs. dotted red rectangle). Actual phase (post 2009) is above the previous top of 2003/2004; moreover the top of 2009 is well above the previous tops of 2003 and ''90 years.
The financial market post 2001/2003 crisis, shows high values of Liquidity Spread component, without evident reversal !!!
The green curve shows actual values (post 2009) in line with previous historical lows !!! The recent top of 2009 is in-line with the previous tops of ''90 years.
The financial market post 2001/2003 crisis, shows a pyramidal values of Interbank Liquidity Spread component: basal values (2002-2004) - peak (2008-2009) - basal values (post 2009).

Note.
Financial markets post-2000 are dominated by high values of Liquidity Spread, without important reversals until now.
When in 2007 there were high values ​of Interbank Liquidity Spread (> 2 pts), there was a market crash !!!
Green curve is an important sub-indicator for the next possible liquidity crisis of the markets.

Chart sources.
❖ St. Louis FED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Collapse of 04 April 2001.

Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about short-term curve evolution of Au (GOLD).

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a view of actual graphical situation of Au (Gold).

Previous posts.
❖ Long term charts: June.2011.
❖ Short term charts: Feb.2013 -- Aug.2012 -- May.2012 -- Apr.2013.
❖ Au vs. Pt: Feb.2013 -- May.2012 -- Aug.2011 - Jan.2011.
❖ Precious vs. Industrial Metals: June.2012 -- June.2012 (AU & Ag comparative corrections from 2000).
❖ Comparative ETF prices: Au -- GroupMetals.

PLATFORM PRICES OF PRECIOUS.
... Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag ... .
... Re Os Ir Pt Au ... .

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main elements.
Key graphical elements are on the attached charts.
Actual lows are very similar to levels obtained from the monthly game insides of GLD (study of Feb.2013).
Alert on these levels: actual lows (new bearish inside evolution ?); yearly bearish inside in action (mid-point & low of 2011); month n.34 from the top pf 2011; mid-point of June.2012 inside (pink candle: 1301$).
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average is a combination of the following curves (yellow-lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.
See also these charts about GLD-ETF: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- monthly ema-format -- monthly candles-format -- yearly -- Au vs. JJP -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀

Some notes/charts about NYSE Summation Indicator.

Aim of the post.
In this post there is a view of actual graphical situation of the Summation Indicator of NYSE, in ''not-adjusted ratio'' format. The attached chart is in linear & monthly ema-format (for mid-long term only).

Previous posts.
❖ Feb.2011 -- Feb.2011 -- Feb.2011 (personal curves) -- June.2012 -- July.2012 -- Sep.2013 (vs. volatility ind.).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
-) The horizontal colored-levels are personal lines in order to recognize the key-levels of indicator. The 0-line is the local driver between negative (0 <) vs. positive (> 0) impact on underlyings. Secondary legs of indicator, inpact on the main horizontal levels green (binary) and white (see the lows of indicators about on binary green). Extreme and stressed levels of indicator are showed by yellow (binary) and red/blue lines.
-) MeltDown of indicator from 2012-top to the IV lows of the curve history, well below the binary green lines.
-) A giant and white ascending rectangle is showed (1987-top, 1998-low) and overlying to a second giant but descending (dotted) red rectangle, with the following price-behaviours.
a) In 2003 there is a first bull-cross of this red & dotted rectangle, followed by several tests of green-band and re-crossed of upper-line in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008.
b) fast collapse in 2008 on the rectangle-base, and then a new and final re-cross in 2009 of upper-line, toward a 3-tops above upper yellow-band (max from 1986 !!!).
c) The summation, after this triple historical tops, go on green-band in mid-2010, for a new re-start of bull toward a new historical top in 2012, followed by an about vertical MeltDown (IV lows of curve history).
-) The red & dotted rectangle has a final price-target of 4100-3900 (2014/2015) pts about.
-) From 2008 historical low, the main trend is in ascending-array, inside the white rectangle and above the red descending rectangle.
-) Yellow and gray zones are the two GraphicalƉetonators of the curve for the next evolution.

Notes.
Curve above the gray-GD is an important element in order to goes toward the target of red & dotted rectangle.
Curve below the yellow-GD is a signal of invalidation of target of red & dotted rectangle, with a new important bearish phase for underlyings.
The zone between the two GraphicalƉetonators is a possible secondary bearish phase for underlyings, but compatible with the target of red & dotted rectangle.

Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB. ◀

Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic curves of Argentina and Greece.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts of Argentina and Greece economy.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts.

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀

Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic curves of some European nations out of €uro-zone.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts of some European nations out of €uro-zone, in order to complete a future post on the comparation of performace of these nations vs. €uro-zone nations, as France, Germany and P.I.I.G.S.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts.

Bibliography for the next comparation.
Argentina vs. Greece. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ina_and_Greece
Ukraine. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ors_of_Ukraine
Italy unemployment curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Italy Debt/GDP. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ratio_of_Italy
Italy macroeconomy curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Russia macroeconomy:
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...a_macroeconomy
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...croeconomy._II
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...s._Russia_data
Japanisation of € (hypothesis). - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...apanisation_of_

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED; TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣