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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #881
  • May 4, 2014 5:04am May 4, 2014 5:04am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic curves of Germany, France and €uro-zone.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts of some European nations as Germany, France and €uro-zone, in order to complete a future post on the comparation of performace of these nations vs. '''out €uro-zone''' nations, and P.I.I.G.S.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts.

Bibliography for the next comparation.
'''Out €uro-zone''' nations. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ut_of_uro-zone
Argentina vs. Greece. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ina_and_Greece
Ukraine. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ors_of_Ukraine
Italy unemployment curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Italy Debt/GDP. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ratio_of_Italy
Italy macroeconomy curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Russia macroeconomy:
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...a_macroeconomy
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...croeconomy._II
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...s._Russia_data
Japanisation of € (hypothesis). - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...apanisation_of_

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #882
  • Edited 12:07pm May 26, 2014 11:48am | Edited 12:07pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic curves of Italy & Spain, with a first European comparation.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts of Italy and Spain, in order to complete a comparation among European nations (both inside and outside €uro-zone. The first comparation concerns some curves of GDP and of Employment level.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts.

First comparation: GDP and Employment levels.
►GDP.
SWE, SWI shows topping values in actual phase. GER shows a recent decrease vs. previous two events (1995/2002 about). €-zone, FRA, DEN, ITA, SPA shows a recent decrease about in-line vs. previous events. UK shows a recent major decrease vs. previous events. GRE shows a recent giant decrease vs. previous events. ICE shows a recent collapse vs. previous events.
►GDP/capita.
€-zone, GER, SWE, SWI shows topping values in actual phase.
DEN, FRA, SPA, UK, shows a recent major decrease vs. previous events (from 1980).
ICE, GRE, ITA shows a violent-impressive decrease.
►Debt/GDP.
GER (2008/2011) +27%, but in decrease; actual values are under control.
€-zone (2008/2014) + 40% and in increase; actual values are under control.
FRA (2008/2014) + 50% and in increase; actual values are under control.
UK (2008/2014) 2X and in increase; actual values are under control.
ICE (2008/2013) 5X; actual values are under control.
DEN (2008/2014) + 69%, but in decrease; actual values are totally under control.
SWE, SWI, in important decrease and totally under control.
SPA (2008/2014) 2.7X and in increase; actual values are under control.
ITA (2008/2014) + 39% and in increase; actual values are out of control (???).
GRE (2008/2014) + 75% and in increase; actual values are out of control.
►Notes. - According to these 3 GDP curves, SWE and SWI shows the best values (out of €-zone).
One nation (GRE: €-zone) is out of control; ITA (€-zone) shows a possible evolution GRE-like, without major reforms.
FRA, SPA (€-zone), UK (out of €-zone) shows possible dangerous evolutions of these curves, without a fast reversals.

►Unemployment %.
DEN, GER, shows an important decrease of %, in-line vs. 1980-lows!!!
ICE, SWE, SWI, shows a totally under control %; UK is about similar.
€-zone, FRA, ITA, shows top values.
GRE, SPA are in a KO phase!!!
►Youth unemployment %.
GER shows values in-line vs. lows of 1994!!!
SWE, shows high level, with 2X from values of 2000.
€-zone, DAN, FRA, GRE, ITA, SPA, UK, shows top values!!!
►Notes. - Total unemployment is an important (actual) problem only for FRA, ITA, SPA and GRE (€-zone). Opposite situation for GER (€-zone) and DEN (out of €-zone).
Youth unemployment is a global European problem except for GER (€-zone)!!!

Bibliography for the comparation.
Main €uro-zone nations. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...e_and_uro-zone
'''Out €uro-zone''' nations. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ut_of_uro-zone
Argentina vs. Greece. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ina_and_Greece
Ukraine. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ors_of_Ukraine
Italy unemployment curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Italy Debt/GDP. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ratio_of_Italy
Italy macroeconomy curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Russia macroeconomy:
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...a_macroeconomy
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...croeconomy._II
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...s._Russia_data
Japanisation of € (hypothesis). - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...apanisation_of_

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
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  • #883
  • May 27, 2014 8:01am May 27, 2014 8:01am
Great work sir, just subscribing.
like totally failure brah
  • #884
  • May 27, 2014 12:03pm May 27, 2014 12:03pm
Great post! Congratulations.
  • #885
  • May 28, 2014 1:26am May 28, 2014 1:26am
Even with “Not So Good” economic numbers, US Dollar manage to continue its northward journey against its European counterpart as ECB President, in his speech yesterday, again uttered the readiness to counter deflationary pressure. Market players are expecting negative interest rates or an add-on to bond buying by ECB during its meeting on June 5th. Today’s German signaling weakness of the Europe’s largest economy and supports the recent downtrend of EUR. To sum up, market is in favor of the USD and is against the EUR, so it would be better to wait and watch till the next week which would provide near term direction to EUR and USD due to the important events being scheduled during the upcoming week.
  • #886
  • Jun 2, 2014 11:18pm Jun 2, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
Even with “Not So Good” economic numbers, US Dollar manage to continue its northward journey against its European counterpart as ECB President, in his speech yesterday, again uttered the readiness to counter deflationary pressure. Market players are expecting negative interest rates or an add-on to bond buying by ECB during its meeting on June 5th. Today’s German signaling weakness of the Europe’s largest economy and supports the recent downtrend of EUR. To sum up, market is in favor of the USD and is against the EUR, so it would be better to wait...
Recent months have seen a gradual cooling of domestic economic activity in the US. The risks of slower growth remain large as US policymakers continue to move too slowly. Now I am more negative on the growth picture in the US and I do not think the risk-reward is favorable enough for a long position. It appears that the balance of risks points to medium-term downside in the dollar.
  • #887
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:46am Jun 3, 2014 12:46am
Quoting IkerParks
{quote} Recent months have seen a gradual cooling of domestic economic activity in the US. The risks of slower growth remain large as US policymakers continue to move too slowly. Now I am more negative on the growth picture in the US and I do not think the risk-reward is favorable enough for a long position. It appears that the balance of risks points to medium-term downside in the dollar.
Even if the macro economic indicators concerning the world's largest economy have started signaling mild weakness, the Greenback continued its northwards journey and it is not because of its own strength, it is because of the weakness of others that make the greenback strongest. IMHO, the medium term outlook for the US Dollar seems to remain firm. Moreover, the deflationary fears sighted by ECB can dent the growth of Euro ahead of the monthly monetary policy meeting.
  • #888
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:22am Jun 6, 2014 5:22am
After the yesterday's ECB release, market players are more likely to concentrate on US NFP. Some details of yesterday's much anticipated ECB decision and a hint of today's NFP as as follows:

Yesterday, ECB became the first developed world central bank to cut their deposit rate to -0.1%. The central bank also lowered the benchmark interest rate to a record level of 0.15% in addition to opening a 400-billion-Euro ($542 billion) liquidity channel tied to bank lending. Moreover, it was signaled that the ECB officials will start working on an asset-purchase plan to fuel the inflation troubled economy. The ECB President, in his press conference after the meeting, said that the economy is expected to witness more softness in inflation numbers in upcoming months during the current year while the employment sector is likely to strengthen.

The US Labor market details, scheduled for later today, becomes closely observed economic announcement to determine near term movement of US Dollar as an optimistic figure well above the forecast is more likely to trigger the US Dollar rally backed by expectations of interest rate hike in early 2015. The NFP is expected to remain well above its 200,000 level for the consecutive fourth month while the unemployment rate is likely to register a slight uptick of 6.4%.
  • #889
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:53am Jun 9, 2014 8:53am

► Reply ◀


Thank you very much, Simon.

s.v.

Quoting simonb
Great work sir, just subscribing.
  • #890
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:54am Jun 9, 2014 8:54am

► Reply ◀


Thank you very much, Bewa.

s.v.


Quoting bewayopa
Great post! Congratulations.
  • #891
  • Jun 10, 2014 11:01am Jun 10, 2014 11:01am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the Coffee 'C'.
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=KC&cot=083731&p=w1

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some chart structures of the Coffee 'C' commodity, in order to obtain a preliminar view of long term trend.

Previous posts.
❖ Nov.2011 (single agro-commodities) -- Nov.2011 (benchmark) -- Nov.2011 (soybean).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts I & II.
Alert(!): there is a monstre bullish(?) spread between large traders vs. Commercial traders.

Chart sources.
❖ FinViz; StockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #892
  • Edited 12:03pm Jun 18, 2014 11:28am | Edited 12:03pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic curves of some European countries: 10y Gov.Bond yields and stock markets.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about 10y Gov.Bond yields and stock markets, in order to complete a comparation among European nations (both inside and outside €uro-zone).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts.

Comparation.
►StockMarkets (see bibliography).
GER is well above the previous historical tops.
DEN is a little above the previous historical tops.
SWE, SWI, UK are a little below the previous historical tops.
FRA, SPA, ITA, €-area, are well below the previous historical tops.
ICE, GRE, shows an impressive decrease.
►10y Gov.Bond yields.
In the years post 1995 until now, the yields of Gov.Bond 10y shows an impressive decrease, with some shock-events in only some countries (see attached charts).
The birth of €uro was coincident with a remarkable decline in Gov.Bond yields, favoring (theoretically) a progressive refinancing of government debts at lower rates.

Bibliography for the comparation.
Main €uro-zone nations. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...e_and_uro-zone
First European comparation. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...an_comparation
'''Out €uro-zone''' nations. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ut_of_uro-zone
Argentina vs. Greece. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ina_and_Greece
Ukraine. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ors_of_Ukraine
Italy unemployment curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Italy Debt/GDP. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...ratio_of_Italy
Italy macroeconomy curves. - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...urves_of_Italy
Russia macroeconomy:
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...a_macroeconomy
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...croeconomy._II
http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...s._Russia_data
Japanisation of € (hypothesis). - http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...apanisation_of_

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 970 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 744 KB
  • #893
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:25pm Jun 18, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting Sal.Vi
► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀ Some notes/charts about the macroeconomic curves of some European countries: 10y Gov.Bond yields and stock markets. Aim of the post. In this post there are some charts about 10y Gov.Bond yields and stock markets, in order to complete a comparation among European nations (both inside and outside €uro-zone). General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post. ► European benchmarks (general; single countries);...
This analysis is very useful!
  • #894
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:35am Jul 1, 2014 11:35am

► Reply ◀


Thank you very much, Bewayopa.

Sa!Vi

Quoting bewayopa
{quote} This analysis is very useful!
  • #895
  • Jul 1, 2014 3:42pm Jul 1, 2014 3:42pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about the possible evolution of US stocks market in 2014.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some comparative and seasonal charts of US stocks market in order to obtain possible indications about (qualitative only) the evolution in this year.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes on the attached charts.
VIX and VXO have been added to show how VXO is on a double historical absolute minimum, while the VIX show levels slightly but significantly higher.

Bibliography for the comparation.
❖ Analogy search for year 2005 & for year 2014.
❖ Moore pattern of analogy.
❖ IOO monthly evolutions: January -- June -- December.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts; FreeStockCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 367 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 452 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 399 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 410 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 307 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
  • #896
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:47pm Jul 2, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting Sal.Vi
► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀ Some notes/charts about the possible evolution of US stocks market in 2014. Aim of the post. In this post there are some comparative and seasonal charts of US stocks market in order to obtain possible indications about (qualitative only) the evolution in this year. General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post. ► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ;...
Great post!!! Love it!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #897
  • Jul 6, 2014 10:04am Jul 6, 2014 10:04am

► Reply ◀


Thank you very much, Rtm.

Sa!Vi



Quoting Rtm
{quote} Great post!!! Love it!
  • #898
  • Jul 6, 2014 10:10am Jul 6, 2014 10:10am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves (benchmarks) in order to compare their recent perfomances.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #899
  • Jul 6, 2014 1:45pm Jul 6, 2014 1:45pm

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves (benchmarks) in order to compare their recent perfomances.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► IXG (data & chart); DJUSFN (data & chart); IAI (data & chart); EUFN (data & chart);
► IXJ -- IBB -- FBT (charts & data);
► Sun & wind ETF: KWT, TAN, FAN, PWND.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
See notes the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
  • #900
  • Jul 7, 2014 10:41am Jul 7, 2014 10:41am

► Financial Markets Observatory Lab. ◀


Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some financial curves (benchmarks) in order to compare their recent perfomances.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.
The benchmarks used are some main iShares MSCI European Indexes:
EWI [jun.2012 (P&F) -- apr.2012] -- EWG -- EWK -- EWL -- EWN -- EWO -- EWP -- EWQ -- EWU.
See notes the linked charts.

Chart sources.
❖ BigCharts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#KèSaddhaPhàPéKampà: #BundaBunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
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