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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,181
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:56am Jun 24, 2014 7:56am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} What are you planning to do at 525.??
Maybe not cheap at 525. 525 is only my next target. There are others below.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,182
  • Jun 24, 2014 8:10am Jun 24, 2014 8:10am
Good morning everybody

Nice charts KO, and interesting perspectives. It's exactly what I had in mind on my BTC chart from last week, and market still hasn't decided. I guess this is the boring part of June Venzen and I were mentioning.
I had a question, does 570 for bitstamp has any significance on your chart ?
To me it's where the difference between the two options you presented will be made.

Venzen, you have some very good points about EW and the auction.
Your comment about EW made me think of emptymind, it always surprised me how he picks the count with the longest term target and only change it as little as possible to keep it fit to PA.
I prefer your way of doing, eliminating possibilities and accepting errors in order to progress seems like a more scientific approach.
I think EW are great when we are lucky (or sometime stubborn) enough to have the direction correctly. Then targets are the easy part.

I don't have much analysis to update at the moment. Still on track and undecided from last week analysis.
I did see this pattern this morning, sort of a EW variation of a diamond pattern.
May be one of you Venzen, KO or Dswk can tell more about it than I.
It's just one more of those perfect geometric figure I like to see.

http://i.imgur.com/CxrDl0Y.png
  • #4,183
  • Jun 24, 2014 8:42am Jun 24, 2014 8:42am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning everybody Nice charts KO, and interesting perspectives. It's exactly what I had in mind on my BTC chart from last week, and market still hasn't decided. I guess this is the boring part of June Venzen and I were mentioning. I had a question, does 570 for bitstamp has any significance on your chart ? To me it's where the difference between the two options you presented will be made. Venzen, you have some very good points about EW and the auction. Your comment about EW made me think of emptymind, it always surprised me how he picks...
Howdy L_L.. 570 has no significance for me. 525 then 470 if price keeps falling. Down to 470 then I'm afraid it could be a free fall to 200. Has to get there first so one has to be prepared for a reversal at any time.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,184
  • Jun 24, 2014 2:00pm Jun 24, 2014 2:00pm
Hi,

I picked up 1.9mill doges for 1 BTC @ 52 satoshies each. Doges are really low now, but still have a high volume, strong community and lots of places it can be used. It got a bit upside and in 6 months the mining reward will be fixed at 10000 doges for ever.

-s-
BTC FTW
  • #4,185
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:15pm Jun 24, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Maybe not cheap at 525. 525 is only my next target. There are others below.
Damn ... my bullet will wait your prediction guru ...
Or maybe i will wait for another bank to fall ...

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Sick life ...
  • #4,186
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:06pm Jun 24, 2014 11:06pm
On the SR auctions, I honestly don't know how and why they would sell for much higher than current prices? I guess a small premium could be attached due to the size of the block and not having to worry about blowing up price by going over slightly since these are "inside transactions" (to the best of my knowledge anyway).

It is like me buying a chunk of BTC from one of you guys/gals, it doesn't cross an exchange anywhere. So not really sure how it will affect price.

Also, will they even publicize the price? I'm not sure if they will (if they have said they will then I'm definitely wrong on this point).

From a mass psychology perspective I think the buyers are going to get a lower price and then sit on them for the long haul. For the "what if" scenario that they appreciate significantly over the next few years.

I don't think they are bidding to get them cheap and then dump them, but that is also a possibility... create a panic and see if they can create a downward slide. This market is manipulable, but every excessive swing in one direction typically offsets itself with a swing in the opposite direction given time.

I think the auctions will be interesting but I'm not sure how much of an impact they will have ultimately on the price of BTC in the short run.

Thoughts?
  • #4,187
  • Jun 25, 2014 3:57am Jun 25, 2014 3:57am
I think nearly the same ... US sell only 1/5 they have seized, could see that 5 more times ... little bit boring ...
But the thing i really don't understand ... WHY DO THEY SELL SOME BITCOIN BEFORE REGULATION ??? Are US governement more and more retard ? Or another trick from uncle sam ?
  • #4,188
  • Jun 25, 2014 8:01am Jun 25, 2014 8:01am
Quoting Masalai
On the SR auctions, I honestly don't know how and why they would sell for much higher than current prices? ... I don't think they are bidding to get them cheap and then dump them, but that is also a possibility... create a panic and see if they can create a downward slide. ...
My theory is that the bidders will probably be investors/companies (I would bet 'big time player', normal institution types) looking to invest in BTC and this presents a chance to get them in bulk and mainly because of the fact that its a legit purchase through this auction channel (I doubt working with Bitstamp et al would be seen as a 'good idea' for the big investment firms and their stuffy board of directors etc, so this is a rare opportunity for the likes of them to invest in to the BTC market). Either them, or a big BTC company already in play in the BTC world will be bidding:
http://www.coindesk.com/list-possibl...d-us-marshals/

Either way, it's unlikely the bidders are in it for a pump and dump or something like that, I would bet it would be in the buyers interest (like every buyer) for the price to go up after they buy in, lol. In the end I guess they will dump them, but from the looks of the leaked list above, its unlikely they would be interested in that.

However, I think the price could go down because of the auction because of the headline words: '30k BTC being sold' - it's making people think that BTC is being converted into fiat at this auction - which is what happens at Bitstamp et al when they are sold which drives price down. But this is not the case, BTC is being sold like any other item at auction to a bidder that will take home those same BTC, so i think price could be greatly affected by it because people have attached that sentiment to it, but not directly due to the auction itself. Im sure the bidders are aware of this too, so any 'dump' from this 'pump' will take some time (not to mention that they wont even get the BTC straight away, im sure there will be forms to fill out etc)

Im betting it will push the price up in the aftermath of the auction, and I think it will once people realise the above and if theyre sold for higher than market value - which is quite possible because 1: its a one time 'off the exchanges' purchase, so the bidders will probably consist of companies not able/willing to go through exchanges normally, so they will not mind paying a bit higher prices anyway.
2. because of what regularly happens in auctions: they might get locked in a bidding war pushing the price up in the heat of the moment.

Im sure the bidders have their upper $ limits for this auction, and Im sure its a bit higher than current market value - it would be funny if they paid the $200k 'entrance fee' and then only intended to spend say, max 400$ per BTC on the day.
  • #4,189
  • Jun 26, 2014 4:36am Jun 26, 2014 4:36am
Hello everybody, hope all are well, making many pips..........

me nahhhhhh....same all same all......working hard for the money ...........

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.....and staying away from the computer, too many conspiracy theorist out there.........

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stay away from the coasts.......stay well.....be safe.....
The Chonchy
  • #4,190
  • Jun 26, 2014 4:48am Jun 26, 2014 4:48am
Quoting chonchy
Hello everybody, hope all are well, making many pips.......... me nahhhhhh....same all same all......working hard for the money ........... {image} {image} {image} {image} .....and staying away from the computer, too many conspiracy theorist out there......... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZNHb8ge7nw stay away from the coasts.......stay well.....be safe.....
Yo chonchy. Good to you are well...Cheers.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,191
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:05am Jun 26, 2014 5:05am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi merquise, and welcome. Can you show an example of trading with the walls? I keep hearing people talk about buy and sell walls and whales, but I lack the know-how when it comes to the order book. If you can explain this with an example that will be greatly appreciated
Hi venzen and thank you for the welcome

Sorry I haven't been around this thread so I missed your question... Anyway it is rather simple really, all you have to do is look at BUY / SELL orders around three biggest exchanges, namely btc-e, mtg.gox and bitstamp and you will have a clearer picture where is the price going That was how I made 30% ROI on BTC last year in December for just 10 days. Hey I found the transaction history: Since I had other things to do I couldn't continue to play with that

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BTC/USD [b]sell[/b] 0.145016 BTC 720 USD 104.41152 USD 26.12.13 19:21
BTC/USD [b]buy[/b] 0.145307 BTC 650 USD 94.44955 USD 17.12.13 05:41
BTC/USD [b]sell[/b] 0.0999076 BTC 802.256 USD 80.15147154 USD 16.12.13 17:00
BTC/USD [b]sell[/b] 0.0150298 BTC 802.256 USD 12.05774722 USD 16.12.13 17:00
BTC/USD [b]sell[/b] 0.00302817 BTC 802.256 USD 2.42936755 USD 16.12.13 17:00
BTC/USD [b]buy[/b] 0.118183 BTC 667.99 USD 78.94506217 USD 07.12.13 13:10
BTC/USD [b]sell[/b] 0.0757 BTC 1044.96 USD 79.103472 USD 04.12.13 21:13
  • #4,192
  • Jun 27, 2014 3:41am Jun 27, 2014 3:41am
why this forum does not have a rating system +1 and -1 ?
  • #4,193
  • Jun 27, 2014 3:50am Jun 27, 2014 3:50am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yo chonchy. Good to you are well...Cheers.

The Chonchy
  • #4,194
  • Jun 27, 2014 5:45pm Jun 27, 2014 5:45pm
Damn bitcoin will celebrate Jean-Claude Juncker ... so sad ...
  • #4,195
  • Edited 2:40am Jun 29, 2014 2:28am | Edited 2:40am
Going pretty much to Plan so far, albeit painfully slow. 525 target revised to revised to 518 followed by 490 then 460.
Must be a lot of bitcoin owners getting very nervous with eyes glued on the auction.
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,196
  • Jun 29, 2014 2:39am Jun 29, 2014 2:39am
Quoting KiwiOz
Going pretty much to lan so far, albeit painfully slow. 525 target revised to revised to 518 followed by 490 then 460. Must be a lot of bitcoin owners getting very nervous with eyes glued on the auction. {image}
The alternative is 760....
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,197
  • Jun 29, 2014 1:30pm Jun 29, 2014 1:30pm
No cheap coin for US auction ?
Just priceless ...
  • #4,198
  • Edited 8:25pm Jun 29, 2014 7:57pm | Edited 8:25pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} The alternative is 760.... {image}
Hi All,

With all the sentiment and fear its hard to predict which way this is going to go. Rather than bet on a direction I'm going to sit it out... I imagine that even after the auction has been finalized and the winners announced, there will be plenty media speculation and sensation about implications and so on... its just too unclear for me to pick a direction at this stage.

edit: if i had to call a count, this is the most i could do (btcchina) - its unclear whereto next... (btw the D/1 label means "either D or 1")

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,199
  • Jun 29, 2014 8:30pm Jun 29, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi All, With all the sentiment and fear its hard to predict which way this is going to go. Rather than bet on a direction I'm going to sit it out... I imagine that even after the auction has been finalized and the winners announced, there will be plenty media speculation and sensation about implications and so on... its just too unclear for me to pick a direction at this stage. edit: if i had to call a count, this is the most i could do (btcchina) - its unclear whereto next... (btw the D/1 label means "either D or 1") {image}
Hi venzen... Looks like a very familiar pattern to me.. cheers.
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,200
  • Jun 29, 2014 9:06pm Jun 29, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen... Looks like a very familiar pattern to me.. cheers. {image}
KO, Agreed - that magnetic line looks like a foregone conclusion dunnit? Also, the A-B on my previous chart demands a C wave down... but I'm not betting on it in case we see a taper to the right - price just flattening out toward that same rising trendline that launched the rally before.... But then again, the auction result is bound to cause some reaction, so a gradual taper over days or weeks is unlikely... phew, for my own trade direction here - i don't know
cryptocurrency everytime
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