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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,161
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:21pm Jun 18, 2014 4:21pm
For anyone wondering about who may be bidding on the SR BTC auction, a list was leaked:
http://www.coindesk.com/list-possibl...d-us-marshals/
  • #4,162
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:39pm Jun 18, 2014 4:39pm
BTC like every other coin is heavily manipulated and in a pump/dump scheme...Too few hold too much and dictate the price. I don't know why is everyone bothered to do technical analysis because all you have to do is see based on those orders where are walls, and trade with them...
  • #4,163
  • Jun 18, 2014 8:21pm Jun 18, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting merquise
BTC like every other coin is heavily manipulated and in a pump/dump scheme...Too few hold too much and dictate the price. I don't know why is everyone bothered to do technical analysis because all you have to do is see based on those orders where are walls, and trade with them...
Hi merquise, and welcome.

Can you show an example of trading with the walls? I keep hearing people talk about buy and sell walls and whales, but I lack the know-how when it comes to the order book. If you can explain this with an example that will be greatly appreciated
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,164
  • Jun 19, 2014 8:30am Jun 19, 2014 8:30am
Looking at the MACD, it could breakout up or down... looking at the pattern, up seems more likely.

Bitstamp 15min

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Selection_068.png Size: 93 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,165
  • Edited 9:34am Jun 19, 2014 9:19am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting venzen
Looking at the MACD, it could breakout up or down... looking at the pattern, up seems more likely. Bitstamp 15min {image}
Hello,
Yep, PA is obeying the channel pretty well.

And here comes my first NXTBTC chart
Had to be pretty nifty without Tview.

Their is a lack of S/R line above current PA.
Based on pattern, the upside target for the current triangle is around 0.00029
For the coming month using EW, neither wave 1 nor 3 extended, on the other hand their respective sub. fifth did. So the coming target could be anywhere between 0.00024 and 0.00034.
Most likely pivot and fib target is 0.0003.

Similitude with LTCBTC charts from early 2013 is significant too.
And current wave 4, so far, is unfolding in the same pattern seen on BTCUSD post april2013.

EDIT : NXTCNY, has similar analysis with upside targets around 2cny.


http://i.imgur.com/X4qfXhl.jpg
  • #4,166
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:32pm Jun 19, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, Yep, PA is obeying the channel pretty well. And here comes my first NXTBTC chart Had to be pretty nifty without Tview. Their is a lack of S/R line above current PA. Based on pattern, the upside target for the current triangle is around 0.00029 For the coming month using EW, neither wave 1 nor 3 extended, on the other hand their respective sub. fifth did. So the coming target could be anywhere between 0.00024 and 0.00034. Most likely pivot and fib target is 0.0003. Similitude with LTCBTC charts from early 2013 is significant too....
hi lady_luck,

You should try to put up a chart - it could very well be the first EW count for NXT!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,167
  • Edited 2:08pm Jun 19, 2014 1:13pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, You should try to put up a chart - it could very well be the first EW count for NXT!
Hello,
I'm not sure I understand, do you mean to put an other chart with a more detailed subwave count, or is there a problem with my post and the chart didn't show ?

edit : more detailed EW count
http://i.imgur.com/gc00jPr.jpg
  • #4,168
  • Jun 19, 2014 7:47pm Jun 19, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, I'm not sure I understand, do you mean to put an other chart with a more detailed subwave count, or is there a problem with my post and the chart didn't show ? edit : more detailed EW count {image}
Great!
yes, previously the chart wasn't displaying
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,169
  • Jun 20, 2014 11:19am Jun 20, 2014 11:19am
Bitstamp 15m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Selection_071.png Size: 73 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,170
  • Jun 20, 2014 5:34pm Jun 20, 2014 5:34pm
Did you see France vs Suisse ?
I think bitcoin will celebrate it with me
  • #4,171
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:25pm Jun 23, 2014 8:25pm
G'day Y'all.. Bitcoin is slowly making it's way down. There is solid support at 525. That should be the deciding level for the next phase. Up or down. I might still get to buy some cheap bitcoins.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 43 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #4,172
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:43pm Jun 23, 2014 8:43pm
Alternative count... If I am correct, with EW wave 4 cannot go below the top of wave 1...??
So, if I allow for the removal of the spikes by using a line chart, that line in the sand is 525 for wave 4 of 1..??
If the spikes do count then we have already been there at 545. Which means price must turn North about now & keep on going.
That's the only way I can see this being a major change of direction to the North.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.2.png Size: 38 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #4,173
  • Jun 23, 2014 11:37pm Jun 23, 2014 11:37pm
Hi KO,

Thanks for the analysis.

waves 1 and 4... it depends: if it's an impulse the beams are not allowed to cross, if it's a diagonal then wave 4 must come into the price territory of wave 1. A diagonal is characterized by ABCs, so wave 1 is ABC instead of 12345, wave 2 is ABC, wave 3 is ABC, etc.

My own sense is that Bitcoin holders are expecting the historical rally to new highs. However, they need an event to justify it, since all of this price movement is just sentiment and speculation. So, just like when the market waited for price to hit that rising TL in mid-May to justify a blast up, I think they are waiting for the outcome of the SR auction to justify the next move. So it's likely a slow sideways until the 29th or 30th.

With the auction 3 outcomes are likely:

1) the coins sell below market price and we take a plunge
2) the coins sell above market price and makes the perfect excuse for a relief rally (and perhaps sparks the longer-term upside move)
3) some coins sell above and some below market price - averaging out to about the equivalent of market price - price whipsaws for a few hours and then sideways continues - waiting for the winning bidder's announcement of what they're planning to do with the coins. When they do announce - a strong move in either direction.

I've always liked this instrument, but the feeling is going sour due to it's highly sentimental nature - which defies my ability to anticipate moves. EurJpy and Gold are looking like better trades - and better leveraged use of my funds.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,174
  • Jun 24, 2014 12:38am Jun 24, 2014 12:38am
Quoting venzen
Hi KO, Thanks for the analysis. waves 1 and 4... it depends: if it's an impulse the beams are not allowed to cross, if it's a diagonal then wave 4 must come into the price territory of wave 1. A diagonal is characterized by ABCs, so wave 1 is ABC instead of 12345, wave 2 is ABC, wave 3 is ABC, etc. My own sense is that Bitcoin holders are expecting the historical rally to new highs. However, they need an event to justify it, since all of this price movement is just sentiment and speculation. So, just like when the market waited for price to hit...
Hi venzen. Yeah I get the impulses & diagonals mixed which is why I stick mainly to my system letting the trend lines decide.
Trading bitcoin.. Yes due to the lousy leverage, a bit hopeless. However as a subject of interest Bitcoin holds the attention.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,175
  • Jun 24, 2014 1:31am Jun 24, 2014 1:31am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen. Yeah I get the impulses & diagonals mixed which is why I stick mainly to my system letting the trend lines decide. Trading bitcoin.. Yes due to the lousy leverage, a bit hopeless. However as a subject of interest Bitcoin holds the attention.
I think this is sensible - to let the TLs show the way - where a wave makes a channel that obeys EW, even better. But EW is not proving very reliable as a forecasting method - at least not my application of it. I see a lot of people post wave counts and they are always invalidated by the next move - something else is going on in the Bitcoin chart and I think its unprecedented like Bitcoin itself. I'd like to understand it better from an EW perspective but so far I haven't been able to crack the code.

Some channels, some Fib extensions and Magetic TLs seem to be the best tools for the job. Indicator diverence is evident on all the highs and lows during correction (e.g. last 6 months).

I was reading up about TD Setup, Continuation, etc over the weekend. This stuff is quite tedious, but I think its worth testing on Bitcoin to see if there is any useful application. I'll get to that sometime.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,176
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:46am Jun 24, 2014 6:46am
Quoting KiwiOz
G'day Y'all.. Bitcoin is slowly making it's way down. There is solid support at 525. That should be the deciding level for the next phase. Up or down. I might still get to buy some cheap bitcoins. {image}
More coin that you had sell at this level last month ?
  • #4,177
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:01am Jun 24, 2014 7:01am
Quoting tostaky06
{quote} More coin that you had sell at this level last month ?
Not me..
Money Makes Money
  • #4,178
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:41am Jun 24, 2014 7:41am
Ok, maybe I confused with Venzen, nevermind ... so i will commit myself more on 525 according to you and my understanding of the state of the dollar ...
Wish us Good Luck ^^
  • #4,179
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:45am Jun 24, 2014 7:45am
Quoting tostaky06
Ok, maybe I confused with Venzen, nevermind ... so i will commit myself more on 525 according to you and my understanding of the state of the dollar ... Wish us Good Luck ^^
What are you planning to do at 525.??
Money Makes Money
  • #4,180
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:49am Jun 24, 2014 7:49am
"buy cheap coin" , no ?
Is my english so bad that i don't understand ?
Bulgarian and Austrian banks begin to fall, it may be time to buy ... let s the show go on ...
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