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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,981
  • Jun 1, 2014 1:03pm Jun 1, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} agree on all counts and targets. some analysts, i think Tai Zen and prof.dr.escobar were discussing NXT this morning and mentioning the same things you just did, Good Luck with that rally - I have to sit it out and hope Execoin does something now the ASICs are pumping out altcoins by the millions! edit: oh, yes, i was just looking at LTCUSD, wondering if it will confirm a BTC top by rallying, but it also seems to be heading down in unison - well, i say "heading down" - i mean correcting - there may still be more subwaves left in this uptrend...
I was thinking about what you said earlier, your fractal idea for this wave v is great. It's too early to say but it has the right look to become a diagonal creeping up slowly toward the targets previously mentioned. Those subwave could well have the shape of the previous one.
And meanwhile, it would give the space for LTC to shoot up. Since it never goes up while BTC is shooting up or going down that would be quiet the perfect timing.

Regarding nxt, I have targets at NXTBTC 0.000130 to 0.000180 for the coming month. And may be an "ATH" around 0.0003 later on.
Ripple death might put NXT in a very interesting position.

edit : happy 200
  • #3,982
  • Jun 1, 2014 1:39pm Jun 1, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I was thinking about what you said earlier, your fractal idea for this wave v is great. It's too early to say but it has the right look to become a diagonal creeping up slowly toward the targets previously mentioned. Those subwave could well have the shape of the previous one. And meanwhile, it would give the space for LTC to shoot up. Since it never goes up while BTC is shooting up or going down that would be quiet the perfect timing. Regarding nxt, I have targets at NXTBTC 0.000130 to 0.000180 for the coming month. And may be an "ATH"...
yeah, you know how these long advancing waves go here at the "end" - wherever you think "surely that was the last wave" - you can add another 5 smaller ones!

Even a retracement here could just be setting up the next set of smaller degree 5 waves up, so i'm just letting it do its thing - once we've broken down to about 640 (finex) i'll start looking to add shorts.

Ripple always seemed like it was going nowhere, didn't it? I used Ripple a few times and some of the payments never arrived and the support staff didn't answer emails for weeks. The last email i wrote to Ripple support has not been answered in 3 months! Lucky the amounts were negligible. So if this can help NXT and your long positions there - great! One problem i have with NXT is the "Proof of Stake" concept which has some political implications and might mean uptake is not as big - especially amongst miners - but the general public might not care about that...

Oooh, big breakdown in price while i write! That looks pretty decisive doesn't it? I'm already short Bitfinex and BTC from around 650 and that drop stopped out my hedges - so i'm committed!

and 200 posts in the Bitcoin Technical Analysis thread at Forex Factory. Damn mania, i tell you!
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  • #3,983
  • Jun 1, 2014 2:01pm Jun 1, 2014 2:01pm
Bitfinex: a quick KO magnetic line scetch shows 600 as a primary target and then (based on S&R) 550-560 ?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,984
  • Jun 1, 2014 2:25pm Jun 1, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} yeah, you know how these long advancing waves go here at the "end" - wherever you think "surely that was the last wave" - you can add another 5 smaller ones! Even a retracement here could just be setting up the next set of smaller degree 5 waves up, so i'm just letting it do its thing - once we've broken down to about 640 (finex) i'll start looking to add shorts. Ripple always seemed like it was going nowhere, didn't it? I used Ripple a few times and some of the payments never arrived and the support staff didn't answer emails for weeks....
I wouldn't jump the gun, but this could be a wave iv, and probably some sort of triangle, so may be the lowest point is already reach. Also, did you see how it overlap the previous wave, and how weak was the move to the top ? It would definitely confirm the diagonal idea.

Yeah, ripple was pretty bad services, one of the reason why POS is often associated with scamcoins. I wouldn't vouch for NXT, but since the mining is actually forging and reward you with the fees from previous transactions as fast as the most NXT you own. An other sort of mining allowed to mine other coin, using NXT as a fee. Making the system asic proof and offering a more stable price for an actual eco.system. Will see how that turns out
  • #3,985
  • Jun 1, 2014 2:27pm Jun 1, 2014 2:27pm
could be this correction was a wave 4 and the A wave of the next (bigger) wave up is forming now. The subsequent B wave will take longer to unfold so I'm going to grab some sleep right here.

Good night all.
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  • #3,986
  • Jun 1, 2014 2:30pm Jun 1, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I wouldn't jump the gun, but this could be a wave iv, and probably some sort of triangle, so may be the lowest point is already reach. Also, did you see how it overlap the previous wave, and how weak was the move to the top ? It would definitely confirm the diagonal idea. Yeah, ripple was pretty bad services, one of the reason why POS is often associated with scamcoins. I wouldn't vouch for NXT, but since the mining is actually forging and reward you with the fees from previous transactions as fast as the most NXT you own. An other sort...
saw your post after i submitted mine agreed - and see the overlap - hoping wave b will take its time as the market deals with what just happened.

see you tomorrow!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,987
  • Jun 1, 2014 2:49pm Jun 1, 2014 2:49pm
Good night Venzen,
It could be that... Because I'm still missing one subwave. Then the 680 you mentioned would fit perfect. Will see
http://i.imgur.com/mYbNd1R.png
  • #3,988
  • Jun 2, 2014 12:40am Jun 2, 2014 12:40am
BTCChina breaking trendline - same with the others, but it doesn't necessarily mean its anything different from last time... yet

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,989
  • Jun 2, 2014 12:51am Jun 2, 2014 12:51am
Will he dive? will he jump?
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  • #3,990
  • Edited 10:44am Jun 2, 2014 1:20am | Edited 10:44am
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  • #3,991
  • Jun 2, 2014 2:30am Jun 2, 2014 2:30am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} well, i said the minimum is where wave three equals wave one in size (5,256 target). i didn't want to scare anyone with my 161.8% target which would be (ln(259.34)-ln(2.22))*1.618+ln(45)=99,644.71 USD for cycle degree wave III.
That's nice but it's not possible in my opinion. All the cryptomoneys will take profit and become millionaires and plague the earth. Additionally, the entire Bitcoin ecosystem will get crushed under it's own weight. Supply and demand have the effect of limiting moves by Fibonacci ratios - not logarithmic ratios, right?

Let's hope that bird doesn't catch a downdraft and soar into a EWP jet plane engine (chuckle)

Here's an observation for you: during the past 4 months, whenever you've put a label "3" on a high - that had been the wave ending. I can trade with your wave 3 labels by going the other way in a contrarian fashion. Why is this?

Recently, I've been getting the feeling that me and you (under a different username) have met in other threads at FF in the past...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,992
  • Jun 2, 2014 3:05am Jun 2, 2014 3:05am
Howdy Y'all. Bitcoin holders are gonna hate me for this but I still cannot see the past 3 weeks action as anything other than a major retracement. (Wave 4 of the down trend)
First I will qualify my next predictions.
1. No predictions are ever a certain thing.
2. So long as 770 is not taken out. I say 770 because if there is another wave to come for this move, that is where it should end.
I have 3 targets to the SOUTH......... 555, 430, 230. Duration. 2 Months. (End of July)
If I am wrong....A bounce at 555 will carry on to 990 if not capped at 770, then on to 1300.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,993
  • Jun 2, 2014 4:09am Jun 2, 2014 4:09am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} im not sure... are saying the market will go down but if it didn't it should go up? i think you need to replace the purple numbers with letters (a,b,c...). that's my understanding of ewp labeling.... opposing ideas welcome! wow... i like your 1300 target!
Maybe, maybe. Only time will tell which is correct. Cheers
Money Makes Money
  • #3,994
  • Jun 2, 2014 4:14am Jun 2, 2014 4:14am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} im not sure... are saying the market will go down but if it didn't it should go up? i think you need to replace the purple numbers with letters (a,b,c...). that's my understanding of ewp labeling.... opposing ideas welcome! wow... i like your 1300 target!
Thought you would. Lol. Sorry I have no faith in that at all.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,995
  • Jun 2, 2014 4:17am Jun 2, 2014 4:17am
Quoting KiwiOz
Howdy Y'all. Bitcoin holders are gonna hate me for this but I still cannot see the past 3 weeks action as anything other than a major retracement. (Wave 4 of the down trend) First I will qualify my next predictions. 1. No predictions are ever a certain thing. 2. So long as 770 is not taken out. I say 770 because if there is another wave to come for this move, that is where it should end. I have 3 targets to the SOUTH......... 555, 430, 230. Duration. 2 Months. (End of July) If I am wrong....A bounce at 555 will carry on to 990 if not capped at 770,...
KO, other than agreeing with you, this is a good piece of analysis and states a case for both directions. Things certainly are ambivalent.

emptymind is right, the larger count going down should strictly be ABCDE - because a larger correction is either three waves (ABC) or five waves (ABCDE) - yet a component of it can be a 5 five and then interpretation allows the use of either 12345 or abcde. I think everyone understood what your labelling of the correction implies, so I (and no-one else up to this point) ever bothered to correct you on this point.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,996
  • Jun 2, 2014 4:33am Jun 2, 2014 4:33am
Hi again, i wanted to share an article with you:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/06/01...y-or-commodity

Nothing new, but as i see it, Bitcoin is getting the attention that comes with price rise again.

I am learning a lot from you all, thank you again, i keep relabelling all the time when i come in here lol

Im in need of a Elliot Wave principle poster to put on my wall so i can see it all the time, if you know where to find a good one i would be very happy, Maybe i'll just do it myself, it'll be part of my training
  • #3,997
  • Edited 5:34am Jun 2, 2014 5:17am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting venzen
{quote} KO, other than agreeing with you, this is a good piece of analysis and states a case for both directions. Things certainly are ambivalent. emptymind is right, the larger count going down should strictly be ABCDE - because a larger correction is either three waves (ABC) or five waves (ABCDE) - yet a component of it can be a 5 five and then interpretation allows the use of either 12345 or abcde. I think everyone understood what your labelling of the correction implies, so I (and no-one else up to this point) ever bothered to correct you on...
Thanks mate....Does this look right.???

Edit: Ooops got the A n B mixed. Fixed..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,998
  • Jun 2, 2014 6:56am Jun 2, 2014 6:56am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Thanks mate....Does this look right.??? Edit: Ooops got the A n B mixed. Fixed.. {image}
Yes!

There is an additional thing - i quote from the EW Principle textbook (p41):

Specific corrective patterns fall into 3 main categories:

Zigzag (5-3-5; includes three types: single, double and triple);

Flat (3-3-5; includes three types: regular, expanded and running)

Triangle (3-3-3-3-3; three types: contracting, barrier and expanding plus variation "running")

A combination of the above forms comes in two types: double three and triple three.


Apologies, I know the above may (on the face of it) probably complicates things, but what the value of the above statement is, is that it describes ALL corrections. Forget about types and subtypes and just look at the subwaves:

5-3-5
3-3-5
3-3-3-3-3

If you scan the Bitcoin chart (even just the last wave up from 540) and in a small timeframe like 5min or 15min you will see examples of most of the above elemental categories: sharp, quick zigzags; flats (a disproportionate type of zigzag) and a few triangles (abcde).

Now clearly the entire correction from Nov 2012 is not a zigzag or flat, which leaves triangle and combination. Problem is, as your 12345 labelling exposes on that long central wave (wave C) is that it is not composed of 3 subwaves (as demanded by a triiangle) but of at least 5 or more subwaves. So this leads me to think that wave C is either a double zigzag or a combination of some sort. And if the combination doesn't have 3 subwaves (as demanded by a triangle) then it means the entire correction is some sort of combination! And that is where the wave counters may have failed to see that it's incomplete. Magnetic TLs showed you that but the average new kid on the block with rudimentary EW is going to count 5 waves down and say "Right, Moon time!" and throw their wallets at the market and make it to rise on low volume that ultimately results in failure to advance due to lack of participation. And so a potential advancing wave becomes a subwave of another corrective structure...

And this is how an over-eager market can make a correction last much longer than it needs to and break the market's previous rhythms and cycles.
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  • #3,999
  • Jun 2, 2014 7:50am Jun 2, 2014 7:50am
Thanks again venzen. Explains a lot. As a trader I need to keep both options open at all times. I traded it up n now I'm trading it down until it takes out my SL which is now better than break even....Cheers
Money Makes Money
  • #4,000
  • Jun 2, 2014 8:28am Jun 2, 2014 8:28am
Quoting KiwiOz
Thanks again venzen. Explains a lot. As a trader I need to keep both options open at all times. I traded it up n now I'm trading it down until it takes out my SL which is now better than break even....Cheers
KO, you're welcome.

This matter prompted me to revisit the previous correction and I can see a similarity between this time and last time. There are 2 differences: 1) the current correction has clear channel boundaries and has lasted longer than the 2013 correction, 2) this correction is one of the only times (that i can see) where a large corrective C wave corrects lower than the preceeding A wave.

So whereas the 2013 correction kind of points up slightly (and without lower lows), the current correction slopes downward in a conical wedge shape - this wedge shape has tricked our minds into expecting a typical wedge/"bull flag" triangle and then an explosion to the upside. But this is not how BTC does it. We are apparently only at the equivalent of one of the "d" labels in the 2013 chart and a protracted and complex correction therefore lies ahead. Luckily it could be very tradeable, because it stair-stepped down in an easy curve last time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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