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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,941
  • May 29, 2014 12:49am May 29, 2014 12:49am
Quoting KiwiOz
Anyone like to relabel this.?? {image}
emptymind's count is a good interpretation - and the opposite idea is a prolonged bottoming out process of unknown count - like a wave washing out on the shore...

In the latter case we could see price waves reduce in amplitude toward some median at say $400 before the next imperceptible rise starts. I've tried counting previous occurences of this kind of action but it always ends up being an drawn out ABCDEFGHI - when it's easiest to just abandon counting and say "price is consolidating to $440".

As far as counts of the larger decline goes, I'd say the best fitting count is the one emptymind has shown for BTCChina and in this case your blue labels 12345 fit that C wave down.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,942
  • Edited 1:59am May 29, 2014 1:04am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} Hi KiwiOz, if i may direct you towards BTC China's chart it is the most straightforward and easy to understand. the chart shows it is a flat correction with an internal structure of 3-3-5. {image} {image} just a reminder... bitcoin is in an extended wave (III) supercycle wave. that's really the most important idea to understand. the market is navigating it's way within this huge wave (III) channel ; may conclude around 100K just a rough estimate around the year 2015?
Well, somebody has to call a degree for Bitcoin's charts. However, SuperCycle sounds very impressive, but the degrees are generally applied according to time span, so a Cycle degree label is for a wave that lasts maybe a decade, and SuperCycle longer than that. Hence I think Primary (or intermediate) degree might be a better fit.

It's also possible that Bitcoin has defied all these orthodox things and is covering what a SuperCycle gold wave did over decades in a few months... the jury is out on that one.

However, please don't "remind" me of facts we have not agreed - that is just presumptious. And so are "warnings" about being long or short in the market... we have most (or all) of us got years of trading experience and no-one has been appointed the group mentor to second guess other group members' capacity or intentions in the market.

Our posting and sharing analysis here is a collaborative effort. We do it with objective analysis. If someone has a strong view of a likely market move (whether in the same direction or opposite to others' analysis) then they are welcome to it. We must guard against squashing a range of opinions in favor of all having to agree. Its healthy to have opposing views. We should just back those views with factual analysis that everyone can reference.

Saying there are three options in the market is better than saying there are two, which is better than one - because there is never only one. Providing confirmation markers is useful to everyone, but restating the same direction and zeal is less useful. I honestly hope this megawave up happens - I have a lot riding on it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,943
  • May 29, 2014 1:11am May 29, 2014 1:11am
Well I said I wasn't going to post analysis, but this is just a count with no implied direction or targets.

Not on the chart (to the left) is a structure that looks like an A wave or a small impulse up and then a drawn out consolidation to $440.

The Red ABC actually fits better I think...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,944
  • Edited 2:36am May 29, 2014 2:09am | Edited 2:36am
the magnitude of bitcoin moves is forcing me to label the waves that way. i can't call the top at 1163 minor wave 3 or minute wave iii. most correct is primary wave (circle) 3..... the previous top at 259 was primary wave (circle) 5 and also naturally a cycle degree I.......... working backwards to the start of this multi year advance you have to label it supercycle (II).... it's all logical and don't understand what's the problem

those reminders are just reminders of my opinion only. im trying to emphasis certain point which i said before. im not speaking on behalf of others why would i?

this is the guide i found on the internet to use for my degree labels for anyone interested...

Attached Image


i found the best match for 1163 top is primary degree wave (circle) 3...
  • #3,945
  • May 29, 2014 2:46am May 29, 2014 2:46am
count update... no change. getting close to the edge of the channel. im channeling the same degree waves
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  • #3,946
  • May 29, 2014 3:19am May 29, 2014 3:19am
Quoting venzen
{quote} lady_luck, thank you very much for your kind and supportive words. I'm not sure about my objectivity sometimes and I know from experience that is a warning sign to just take a step back. Strong emotion and convictions in the market can lead to irrational decisions and a growing sense of hope and eventually desperation - and I avoid these at all costs. Once the calm and reason returned, I started analyzing again. Well there is not much to say from my perspective - things are hot and could go either way. KiwiOz pointed out the Gold connection...
venzen, to be honest you sound like a paid basher in your regularly released reports. always biased to the bear side
  • #3,947
  • May 29, 2014 5:27am May 29, 2014 5:27am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} venzen, to be honest you sound like a paid basher in your regularly released reports. always biased to the bear side
Regardless of one's "bias" we have a retracement to deal with. Most retracements after a sustained rally are in the 60% to 75% region. This will bring Bitcoin back to the 470 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,948
  • May 29, 2014 10:14am May 29, 2014 10:14am
Good morning everyone,

In my two main count, the current wave is either a C or 3 and supposed to be a five wave structure


I tried to find good proportion between subwaves. It is supported by PA in a clear triangle visible on smaller TF for every waves iv.
http://i.imgur.com/oSGMr0B.png

LTCUSD is interesting, it seems to be one wave behind BTC. Which would explain the ratio LTCBTC going down. And hint me that this move isn't over yet.
Also on this chart every "wave 2" approximate fib .618 to .786. "Wave 4" never overlap. And their is some interesting repetition of fractals patterns.
http://i.imgur.com/B1wkBoC.png

As of the largest picture this PA can still fit within either a bearish or bullish count.
http://i.imgur.com/7hfQafj.png
  • #3,949
  • May 30, 2014 4:53am May 30, 2014 4:53am
620 is the first target - anyone? (and then a complete retrace )

i think this wave is going to be big and the corrections could be scary

edit: on BTCe it appears this could be an exaggerated B wave before C down, however, Bitfinex has already been to 630 and back with little sign of giving up for now.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,950
  • May 30, 2014 8:07am May 30, 2014 8:07am
Quoting venzen
620 is the first target - anyone? (and then a complete retrace ) i think this wave is going to be big and the corrections could be scary edit: on BTCe it appears this could be an exaggerated B wave before C down, however, Bitfinex has already been to 630 and back with little sign of giving up for now.
very possible.

Very Warning zone there : (Daily). confluence of reversals indicators.
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  • #3,951
  • May 30, 2014 8:09am May 30, 2014 8:09am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Sorry mate. can't see anything above 875 at present. However I'm still getting a now completed ABC retracement reading. That means 300 is just as possible as 875. Only a retrace & move back above 590 will confirm the move higher.

Inserted Video



So we are going to 875 ? ^^
  • #3,952
  • May 30, 2014 8:28am May 30, 2014 8:28am
Quoting tostaky06
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwGPC6V5XqQ So we are going to 875 ? ^^
I think not. Venzen has the correct target for wave 4 methinks. (620)
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  • #3,953
  • May 30, 2014 8:38am May 30, 2014 8:38am
Ok, let see ... whatever we will have, i will keep all ...
  • #3,954
  • Edited 9:22am May 30, 2014 8:55am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting venzen
620 is the first target - anyone? (and then a complete retrace ) i think this wave is going to be big and the corrections could be scary edit: on BTCe it appears this could be an exaggerated B wave before C down, however, Bitfinex has already been to 630 and back with little sign of giving up for now.

Hello,
I still have my targets from last week (on a chart where I mentioned we'd see 545 first) at 660 bitstamp, 640 btce for v of 3 and 16 on ltcusd. Might take a couple days, and might go back down to 590 first.
I don't think it's a wave B tho, we had a few triangle, two days long for the last one, so it's seems more likely a wave C than c of B, if bearish count.
  • #3,955
  • May 30, 2014 9:34am May 30, 2014 9:34am
All going on today - I woke up a bear but by lunch I was a bull - sure the rest of you also saw that turn show price wants to shoot again!

all of the upside zones and targets that we have been posting are coming into play. It's fast and furious - but soon we have to look down again - hopefully not far.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,956
  • May 30, 2014 9:39am May 30, 2014 9:39am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, I still have my targets from last week (on a chart where I mentioned we'd see 545 first) at 660 bitstamp, 640 btce for v of 3 and 16 on ltcusd. Might take a couple days, and might go back down to 590 first. I don't think it's a wave B tho, we had a few triangle, two days long for the last one, so it's seems more likely a wave C than c of B, if bearish count.
hi L_L,

I guess your Bitstamp and Bitfinex targets are the same? Yes, the B wave theory is obsolete. The weekend will be interesting for strong moves.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,957
  • May 30, 2014 9:45am May 30, 2014 9:45am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} I think not. Venzen has the correct target for wave 4 methinks. (620)
KO, that's a safe minimum bet - looking at last Oct/November's rally, this is about the point where some upward curving starts. lady_luck's count has held so far and with dswk's resistance zone right here, as well as your magnetic target around 620 we might hit the first ceiling soon.

Altho' I must say, the base on this wave is much bigger than any of the previous waves in the advance so I don't want to make a target call yet - it could skyrocket as emptymind has emphasized.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,958
  • Edited 1:16pm May 30, 2014 11:05am | Edited 1:16pm
Hello Venzen,
Thanks Yes, most of the bearish cases are disappearing one by one, first the ED wave C, now the wave B, the only bearish view left for me is so very bearish (basically an extra 6month down below 100) that it's almost obsolete too.
For now I don't see PA going anywhere below 525.

An other bullish argument is LTC behaving in a way very similar as every previous "base" wave 1 to 3. I'll be looking very closely as how and when it reaches the same level as btc around 16. I think it could be happening soonish, right now I believe a long position in ltc could be very profitable and a good hedge to a short at previously mentioned level for BTC.


As of bitstamp/bitfinex, yes targets are similar, although, i woke up this morning and it took me a good 10min to figure out that bitfinex went to 630, I only looked at bitstamp chart and didn't understood what mistake i had made to have my sell order filled
This wave to 630, might have been (i) and (iii) of v of 3, probable extension, so 660 seems very likely on bitfinex too (and then a correction down to at least 550).

Quoting tostaky06
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwGPC6V5XqQ So we are going to 875 ? ^^
Oh, bonjour, I'm not the only french around
  • #3,959
  • May 30, 2014 2:05pm May 30, 2014 2:05pm
Venzen, I have two different way to count this move if it is an advance,
The red count include april 14th as part of the advance.
The blue one, include the sideway as a truncated fifth.
For the red one, I like the proportion in time between 1,2,3,4
For the blue one, i like the fact that it exclude this weird sideway as a wave II of an advance
Which one would make more sens for you ?
http://i.imgur.com/YXycVMS.png
  • #3,960
  • May 30, 2014 4:49pm May 30, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting lady_luck
Venzen, I have two different way to count this move if it is an advance, The red count include april 14th as part of the advance. The blue one, include the sideway as a truncated fifth. For the red one, I like the proportion in time between 1,2,3,4 For the blue one, i like the fact that it exclude this weird sideway as a wave II of an advance Which one would make more sens for you ? {image}
i think the blue count "looks" right... the idea that there was a weakening of downtrend and then a gradual rise and the waves are building bigger and bigger - it seems like the amplitude (or degree?) of each wave is increasing.

It'll be interesting to see what the correction from around 620 does - whether it retraces deeply or just bounces off the ascending channel and continues...
cryptocurrency everytime
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