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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,921
  • May 27, 2014 1:47pm May 27, 2014 1:47pm
This is a really emotional moment in the market. Opinions are strong and feelings are running high because everyone has been waiting for this moment all their life

I published an article this morning saying that correction was due and that it can eventually go to a new low or continue upwards in a powerful blast, but with little emphasis on the upside potential. Phew! I should have just said nothing and written a story about one of the many companies embracing Bitcoin, because the barrage of abuse I got for saying price is going down was frightening!

I'll be laying off the analysis for a few days to give the market time to show itself and create some psychological distance. By committing oneself to a direction one creates a certain expectation bias in how you look and what you end up seeing. In an over-confident moment i even dedicated a chart to someone and price ended up trashing the analysis completely, which was the opposite of my intention to give accolades to a colleague.

I'll be around, but won't add analysis because in this moment there are conflicting signals and i'd rather stay out keep quiet for while.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,922
  • May 27, 2014 5:44pm May 27, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting emptymind
it's really a pity almost nobody is long . i feel most of you are on the sidelines or short......... too bad bros you're going to miss out on a new ATH within days after wave 4 ends.... that's my best read on the market.
Hey, you keep ignoring me. I am on your side since 2559.
  • #3,923
  • May 27, 2014 7:16pm May 27, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} thank you KiwiOz... just to inform you, this is a normal wave 4 correction so 595 or whatever the recent wave 3 high will be taken out without any effort. the market only retraced 23.6% which is a sign of a strong market (not the usual 38.2% - 50% wave 4 retrace). there is no doubt in my mind the uptrend will resume with a powerful wave 5 that i believe will take out the all time high at 1163 within days! (once wave 4 correction ends) i don't think anyone is expecting this powerful move. you heard it here first bros!
Hahaa. You are the ultimate optimist....Hope for your sake you are right. However the market has many twists & turns & "Never" goes in a straight line.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,924
  • May 27, 2014 7:19pm May 27, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting venzen
This is a really emotional moment in the market. Opinions are strong and feelings are running high because everyone has been waiting for this moment all their life I published an article this morning saying that correction was due and that it can eventually go to a new low or continue upwards in a powerful blast, but with little emphasis on the upside potential. Phew! I should have just said nothing and written a story about one of the many companies embracing Bitcoin, because the barrage of abuse I got for saying price is going down was frightening!...
Hey venzen. Stay with us mate. Don't let the bashers bother you. All opinions are relevant & you only have to be right 50% of the time to be a winner..
Money Makes Money
  • #3,925
  • May 27, 2014 10:15pm May 27, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting kingtour
{quote} Hey, you keep ignoring me. I am on your side since 2559.
i read all your posts bro! you are one of the few people on here with a no-nonsense approach to market analysis
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  • #3,926
  • May 27, 2014 11:53pm May 27, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hey venzen. Stay with us mate. Don't let the bashers bother you. All opinions are relevant & you only have to be right 50% of the time to be a winner..
thanks KO, i'm here all day!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,927
  • May 27, 2014 11:55pm May 27, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} i read all your posts bro! you are one of the few people on here with a no-nonsense approach to market analysis {image}
there are only 5 of us, so who are the no-nonsense ones? (and where do i fit in the picture?)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,928
  • May 28, 2014 12:46am May 28, 2014 12:46am
Quoting venzen
{quote} thanks KO, i'm here all day!
I have been watching the Bitcoin price action in relation to other currencies & commodities including Gold & Silver. If Bitcoin is to become another currency of choice for those who want to use it then it stands to reason Bitcoin will start trading like other currencies. Bitcoin is not unique. It just another currency, albeit one that anyone can print (mine) if they have the means to do so.
Instead of thinking Bitcoin will go to the moon, We should be looking at what other currencies & commodities paired against the USD are doing. Gold in particular.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,929
  • Edited 5:19am May 28, 2014 2:51am | Edited 5:19am
i compared bitcoin and gold but they don't seem to be correlated; at most inversely correlated near bitcoin tops, but not in all cases. i believe it will never really correlate with other financial instruments... bitcoin is meant to function outside the system and is not meant to "fit in"
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  • #3,930
  • May 28, 2014 7:41am May 28, 2014 7:41am
Crypto's
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,931
  • May 28, 2014 7:58am May 28, 2014 7:58am
Crypto's
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,932
  • May 28, 2014 8:27am May 28, 2014 8:27am
Thanks for the charts, KO and emptymind.

Namecoin has an odd looking chart doesn't it? It reminds me of the VIX.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,933
  • May 28, 2014 9:30am May 28, 2014 9:30am
Quoting venzen
This is a really emotional moment in the market. Opinions are strong and feelings are running high because everyone has been waiting for this moment all their life I published an article this morning saying that correction was due and that it can eventually go to a new low or continue upwards in a powerful blast, but with little emphasis on the upside potential. Phew! I should have just said nothing and written a story about one of the many companies embracing Bitcoin, because the barrage of abuse I got for saying price is going down was frightening!...
Hello Venzen,
I often said your objectivity is one of your great quality.
I'm glad neither you nor KO ever pick absolute opinions, such as "Btc to US$1billion" or "Btc to US$zero".
I think you two have the most interesting way of trading, not even about truth or being right.
You are choosing the hypothesis which can be demonstrated true or false the fastest in price or time, a much interesting process when subjectivity is the tool of analysis.
It's sadden me to hear you have to take some distance because of some black and white perspective overwhelming a more scientific and rational process of elimination.
We all know, it's the bear in a bullmarket who make the prices rises, and the other way around. So I'm confident all of us here are able to go long and short without having to preach a long term unprovable ideas. It's only a question of how many pips is it worth loosing at what point before adapting and profit.
In other words, thank you for sharing your analysis with everyone
  • #3,934
  • May 28, 2014 11:04am May 28, 2014 11:04am
there are only a few wave labels left before the market reaches cycle degree III. cycle wave III must also be atleast equal in size to cycle wave
I. the market has to move quickly and with minimum corrections all the way to wave (3) and must cover as much distance as possible... after that the market has only intermediate degree wave (4) and wave (5) to work with to reach the cycle top...i hope you understand why the market will enter bubble like behavior within days to make up for it. that's one of the reasons i'm expecting a powerful move and also from a cycles point of view it makes sense too.

remember elliott waves help us predict how markets will unfold if used correctly.
  • #3,935
  • May 28, 2014 12:02pm May 28, 2014 12:02pm
market took out 2 long term downtrend lines within days of each other. market saying the sky is the limit bros
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  • #3,936
  • Edited 12:53pm May 28, 2014 12:31pm | Edited 12:53pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello Venzen, I often said your objectivity is one of your great quality. I'm glad neither you nor KO ever pick absolute opinions, such as "Btc to US$1billion" or "Btc to US$zero". I think you two have the most interesting way of trading, not even about truth or being right. You are choosing the hypothesis which can be demonstrated true or false the fastest in price or time, a much interesting process when subjectivity is the tool of analysis. It's sadden me to hear you have to take some distance because of some black and white perspective...
lady_luck, thank you very much for your kind and supportive words.

I'm not sure about my objectivity sometimes and I know from experience that is a warning sign to just take a step back. Strong emotion and convictions in the market can lead to irrational decisions and a growing sense of hope and eventually desperation - and I avoid these at all costs. Once the calm and reason returned, I started analyzing again. Well there is not much to say from my perspective - things are hot and could go either way.

KiwiOz pointed out the Gold connection again today. It's a valuable idea and I've been looking at the gold chart a lot the past few weeks.

The BTC spike up and then an abrupt end could well be because the market is taking a "breather", but all of this PA since the April climb from $340 really has a lot of similarity to the gold chart of last year. The chart below is from about 7 months ago and has a similar spike up as BTC just did: Look at the relentless wave up (Fed QE taper talk), the jagged top and then the cascading formations as price starts rolling over the top... isn't it very similar?

As much as I would like to believe that BTC will make us all rich by hiking a 20x increase in an impulse to new highs... I would like to remain alert for that, but think there is a new twist in the Bitcoin story... it has been widely adopted and "this is it." This is actually Bitcoin being traded and exchanged on a daily basis at steady volume. I read in IRC that the Core developers are confuzed by the fact that their stats show fewer and fewer Bitcoin nodes on the network over the past 6 months. There could be many reasons for that, but the one that jumps out at me is... mining is expensive, life is expensive and the economy of the network is reaching an equilibrium. Speculative waves up and corrections down aside, $250-$500 per Bitcoin seems about right, doesn't it? Perhaps our dream of a trade-of-a-lifetime to the upside will still happen, but we might have to wait a bit

Please don't take my post as negative or cynical - I believe entertaining the thought of prolonged sideways is a worthwhile exercise and its been raised a few times before.

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,937
  • Edited May 29, 2014 12:09am May 28, 2014 1:34pm | Edited May 29, 2014 12:09am
Quoting venzen
{quote}...I believe entertaining the thought of prolonged sideways is a worthwhile exercise and its been raised a few times before. {image}
i agree with you regarding prolonged sideways action but only after the market reach cycle degree wave III (5K-10K).... just by looking at the channel lines it is clear wave IV will take around 11 months which is longer than any other correction we've had; makes sense because this will be cycle degree wave IV

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  • #3,938
  • May 28, 2014 5:24pm May 28, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} gjgjg, Thanks for sharing your experience. I haven't received my key yet. Do they offer leverage on one's account? If they do, i might consider it, but i tend to avoid services who want to know too much, because they are targeted by the feds and other personal information-hungry agencies (like googl for instance). In my view, modern internet business doesn't require anything more than an email address and a private key - for comms and for authentication verification. But if they offer enough leverage - damn, they can have a color scan of...
Just a tiny mention that Coinsetter told me theyre looking into leverage accounts for the future. Theyre still in beta so might be a while.

Just to mention that fyi im also seeing resistance to the uptrend in the 600~630 range from upper TLs and 200 MA. Nothing too newly inspiring sorry! fingers crossed she gets through it though! im long since 450
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  • #3,939
  • May 28, 2014 7:34pm May 28, 2014 7:34pm
Anyone like to relabel this.??
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Money Makes Money
  • #3,940
  • Edited 12:27am May 29, 2014 12:04am | Edited 12:27am
Quoting KiwiOz
Anyone like to relabel this.?? {image}
Hi KiwiOz, if i may direct you towards BTC China's chart it is the most straightforward and easy to understand. the chart shows it is a flat correction with an internal structure of 3-3-5.
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just a reminder... bitcoin is in an extended wave (III) supercycle wave. that's really the most important idea to understand. the market is navigating it's way within this huge wave (III) channel ; may conclude around 100K just a rough estimate around the year 2015?
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