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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,701
  • May 11, 2014 4:35am May 11, 2014 4:35am
Quoting emptymind
there is 5 months of stored energy in compressing this triangle "spring". it will be released! {image} i noticed there is alternation in successive phase transitions small>large>small>large? {image}
nice illustration - reminds me of me every fullmoon
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,702
  • May 11, 2014 9:09am May 11, 2014 9:09am
.......Happy mother's Day to all mothers here, and happy weekend to all the others, cheers.........
The Chonchy
  • #3,703
  • May 11, 2014 10:32am May 11, 2014 10:32am
Quoting chonchy
.......Happy mother's Day to all mothers here, and happy weekend to all the others, cheers.........
Yes, happy mother day to everyone and their family
  • #3,704
  • May 11, 2014 12:45pm May 11, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting chonchy
.......Happy mother's Day to all mothers here, and happy weekend to all the others, cheers.........
hey, chonchy! mi amigo! donde has estado todo este tiempo mal hombre!

hope you're well and come join us again soon. we kept your place - it is still here just where you left it.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,705
  • May 11, 2014 12:59pm May 11, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes, happy mother day to everyone and their family
lady_luck, thank you for the well-wishes and glad you and chonchy mentioned this here - i had no idea - and would have neglected my mother otherwise! i just sent her some love.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,706
  • Edited 4:50pm May 11, 2014 2:16pm | Edited 4:50pm
Quoting venzen
Seems the worst is still to come for this wave down. {image}
I don't know what you think, look like we are finally getting closer to see a move ?
I'll try to update with a count if my computer let me...
  • #3,707
  • May 12, 2014 6:38am May 12, 2014 6:38am
i posted these Bitstamp charts in an analysis article today.

My idea is that price is having difficulty breaking through the line RS so it needs to drop to support lower down in order to get a strong "bounce" up.

On the 4 hour chart the Fibs are aligned perfectly and it seems that $350/360 level presents a desirable target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bitstamp_Daily_Log_12May2014.png Size: 71 KB


Bitstamp 4 hour

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bitstamp_4H_log_12May2014.png Size: 88 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,708
  • May 12, 2014 10:44am May 12, 2014 10:44am
Quoting dswk
Hi. some stuffs and share for the week-end. some free signals on cryptocurrencies and fx by my twitter feed : https://twitter.com/fxmgm My view on BTC (H4 based) 1st graph and another view (H1 Based) 2nd graph : {image} {image}
Still the same view :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusd-h4-distel-enterprise.png Size: 62 KB
  • #3,709
  • May 12, 2014 4:06pm May 12, 2014 4:06pm
Hello,

Lot of interesting charts everywhere, I'm running of things to draw
Venzen, I don't have any better wave label than yours, but I hope this observation might still interest you.

I remember something KO said about candle occupying empty spaces, and (out of extreme boredom) I explored the idea.

Last week was triangle's week, today's theme is about crayola and boxes.

Current PA is now in the range of the wave iv of the november uptrend.
http://i.imgur.com/VFfW93j.png

Every sharp waves <noticeably C and 3> has left behind this identically fitted empty box without price data.
And the next wave structure fill the absence, respecting the same amplitude and time.

http://i.imgur.com/Z2peYdM.png

In other word, i would say we are reconstructing the support that was lacking in the previous overshooting waves (including the one from 230 to the ATH).

If I were to extrapolate only from this empirical observation, I'd say PA is about to drop to 340, move back up to 410 and finally go back down to 300 around the 26th of may.
  • #3,710
  • May 12, 2014 8:09pm May 12, 2014 8:09pm
Quoting lady_luck
Hello, Lot of interesting charts everywhere, I'm running of things to draw Venzen, I don't have any better wave label than yours, but I hope this observation might still interest you. I remember something KO said about candle occupying empty spaces, and (out of extreme boredom) I explored the idea. Last week was triangle's week, today's theme is about crayola and boxes. Current PA is now in the range of the wave iv of the november uptrend. {image} Every sharp waves <noticeably C and 3> has left behind this identically fitted empty box without...
Howdy all. nice post L_L. Like you I am looking for more to the South. The fact I have so many targets tells me the trip will be slow & torturous with several retracements. Bitcoin appears to put in many waves within waves within waves.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4 1.png Size: 38 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,711
  • May 12, 2014 8:54pm May 12, 2014 8:54pm
Dunno about the rest of you but reading all the Bitcoin news about ATMs & debit cards etc etc I am dieing for bitcoin to plummet to 100 so I can buy in big & start using Bitcoins as my main currency. Be nice to then see Bitcoin slowly increase in value for eternity tooooooooo
Money Makes Money
  • #3,712
  • May 13, 2014 1:40am May 13, 2014 1:40am
Quoting KiwiOz
Dunno about the rest of you but reading all the Bitcoin news about ATMs & debit cards etc etc I am dieing for bitcoin to plummet to 100 so I can buy in big & start using Bitcoins as my main currency. Be nice to then see Bitcoin slowly increase in value for eternity tooooooooo
Hi KiwiOz, long time no see! The market's slow eh?

Same as you, I also sometimes dream of a future where Bitcoin is in widespread use. I have no doubt this going to be the case. Even as it is, I've been paid in Bitcoins for work since the beginning of the year and it's so much easier: I've only needed to go to the bank to withdraw fiat after selling BTC on a local exchange, but soon the need for converting to fiat will reduce again. At the moment I can buy my airtime (and therefore 3G) via BTC. So it's rent, electricity/water and food that requires the fiat. If I can make a deal with the landlord... i'll have to preach the gospel of the Bitcoin, but so few rural (and town) people use it... he might not trust this new-fangled funny-money... worth a try though.

The way my freelance fees get paid is like this: the base fee per article is in USD and then on the pay-day the fee is converted to BTC and I receive those to my wallet. According to my assessment of whether there is some upside in the chart, i can then sell higher to squeeze more fiat out of the Bitcoins, but normally I just transfer straight to my trade account and use the Bitcoins to add to my leveraged short position.

I've not done any more work on finding brokers, but will get back on it as soon as I have some clear air.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,713
  • May 13, 2014 1:51am May 13, 2014 1:51am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi KiwiOz, long time no see! The market's slow eh? Same as you, I also sometimes dream of a future where Bitcoin is in widespread use. I have no doubt this going to be the case. Even as it is, I've been paid in Bitcoins for work since the beginning of the year and it's so much easier: I've only needed to go to the bank to withdraw fiat after selling BTC on a local exchange, but soon the need for converting to fiat will reduce again. At the moment I can buy my airtime (and therefore 3G) via BTC. So it's rent, electricity/water and food that...
Hi venzen. Waiting for bitcoins to land in my Wallet. Will transfer to FXopen.com. Will try them out for a week or two trading & withdrawing bitcoins to & from my wallet. I will keep you informed. At least they are a KIWI broker so should be safer than with Btc-e.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,714
  • May 13, 2014 7:16am May 13, 2014 7:16am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen. Waiting for bitcoins to land in my Wallet. Will transfer to FXopen.com. Will try them out for a week or two trading & withdrawing bitcoins to & from my wallet. I will keep you informed. At least they are a KIWI broker so should be safer than with Btc-e.
OK, i'll wait for your feedback.

I've been contacted by an Oz-based broker called Avatrade who also offer Bitcoin leveraged trades, but haven't checked out their deal yet. Will spend some time this week and report here.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,715
  • May 13, 2014 7:31am May 13, 2014 7:31am
Quoting venzen
{quote} OK, i'll wait for your feedback. I've been contacted by an Oz-based broker called Avatrade who also offer Bitcoin leveraged trades, but haven't checked out their deal yet. Will spend some time this week and report here.
Waste of time mate. They only trade 24/5...........
Money Makes Money
  • #3,716
  • May 13, 2014 8:29am May 13, 2014 8:29am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Waste of time mate. They only trade 24/5...........
Raated Tomatoes...

Nevermind, we'll find something. I have a busy few days ahead but will give it a good spin on Friday and Saturday.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,717
  • Edited 12:29pm May 13, 2014 11:42am | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Howdy all. nice post L_L. Like you I am looking for more to the South. The fact I have so many targets tells me the trip will be slow & torturous with several retracements. Bitcoin appears to put in many waves within waves within waves. {image} {image}
Thanks That was very much inspired by you, I'm glad I didn't get it too wrong.
Fortunately, those subdivision are the reason why it doesn't look right as an advance anymore. I can't quiet label them yet, not enough triangle and diagonals.
On smaller TF the absence of sharp moves hint me that only the wave A is behind us, a wave 3 of C can still be ahead.
Next leg down from 420 might be that.

On the following chart, I tried to make sens of the sideway with :
-Red B would be an expanded flat. Supported by the difference of "b" under "v of A", exactly equal to the difference of "c" below "a".
-The time proportion between red A and red B, a-b-c of "a", i,ii,ii,iv,v of c, and "a" to "c" of red B.
-Red B beeing in the fib .382 range of red A
-And all the fib on the right side (down to 1.61 at 251) potential targets for a red C

http://i.imgur.com/FI71KCb.png
  • #3,718
  • May 13, 2014 1:20pm May 13, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Thanks That was very much inspired by you, I'm glad I didn't get it too wrong. Fortunately, those subdivision are the reason why it doesn't look right as an advance anymore. I can't quiet label them yet, not enough triangle and diagonals. On smaller TF the absence of sharp moves hint me that only the wave A is behind us, a wave 3 of C can still be ahead. Next leg down from 420 might be that. On the following chart, I tried to make sens of the sideway with : -Red B would be an expanded flat. Supported by the difference of "b" under "v...
This is how i'd label it too. It's reminding me of the slightly up and sideways prior to the SR bust last year. Also, i'm seeing similarities to the jagged descent EurJpy made in the beginning of last year before it made that explosive 3rd (or 5th?) wave up on the announcement of BoJ stimulus. I'll get some charts together tomorrow to explore this idea.

... funny how the mind works... even though I've convinced myself with lots of TA and we have more than one opinion in the thread that more downside is necessary - every now and again during the day I might see the price move up a bit and I get some doubts... and then I look over all the recent TA charts and my worries go away... I have "worst case" stops in place (and even they will stop me out in profit), but for me there is always the fear of some sudden move back to 500 or 700... ridiculous, but i get that a few times a week. This slow PA is agonizing!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,719
  • May 13, 2014 1:24pm May 13, 2014 1:24pm
A few times today i've noticed BTC-e and Bitstamp moving in opposite directions... right now they're both at 435 - bitstamp having dropped and btce having shot up from 431.

Not sure if this means anything, but havent seen that before... maybe i wasn't looking good...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,720
  • May 13, 2014 1:27pm May 13, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} but for me there is always the fear of some sudden move back to 500 or 700... ridiculous, but i get that a few times a week. This slow PA is agonizing!
Haha, for me, it's the fear of btc being stuck in one of the circle of hell, and the punishment of watching PA ever moving between 410 and 440 for the rest of eternity...

EDIT: I sometime see BTCe, stamp and previously gox moving in divergent direction, but it was after a sharp move when PA was about to meet a LL (lower low, not me ). Now that I think of it, we did just move from 446 to 438, and lately that's sharp !
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