Bitcoin technical analysis | Page 184 | Crypto Craft

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

BTC/USD

Similar Threads

Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 21 replies

Bitcoin Analysis 22 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

Attachments: Bitcoin technical analysis
Exit Attachments

Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,661
  • May 6, 2014 1:35pm May 6, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} By the way after the LL 3-4 to .382 you mentioned, I found the previous dance step the AB 1-2 Interesting how the B is a trump. I remember when on the first chart we were both seeing waves up and a correction over. I develop everytime as a potential 5 wave impulse if looked at on the "wrong TF" Then a sharp subwave down to the begining of c of B, and your alligator snout sideway toward the end of 1. Followed by a sharp and short 2 to the .618 fib of 1. I didn't explain more what I meant about your triangle yesterday, but in all those...


your observation about the triangles is interesting - so there is a pattern in the Fib ratios too... The reason I did those geometric shapes and used color coding instead was to get away from the framework of "measure" and correct count and tried to just focus on 1. what action does price do in this zone, and 2. what is the outcome of that action (reaches a TL or moves sideways).

When you mentioned that there was a relationship in the triangles areas and sum of their sides to a previous triangle, i was surprized because i just drew the shapes freehand without measure or care for how accurately they contained price. So it was like i tried to do the opposite of what i usually do and when you pointed out the relationship i realized the result was measureable! I was a bit confuzed by that and didn't know what to say!

I see you're doing the same in the charts attached to your last post: labeling the pattern and not using the EW wave count. It's useful to look at price like that - we've discussed this AB-1-2 shape many times before without being able to deconstruct it or get a handle on it. EW doesn't help because the EW labels are awkward (in this BTC case) and doesn't allow anything to jump off the page and say: "down, sideways, drop, retrace [repeat]"

It's all about this thing we're seeing: there is a logical engine (i keep thinking, DNA) behind the Bitcoin price that makes it do this AB-1-2. And just like you said yesterday, there is a moment following decline when suddenly (or gradually?) the 1-2 to the downside swaps functions with the AB and starts advancing. I think you said "the next wave will break the rule and start advancing". It was all too much for me yesterday due to my brain being tired, but now i'm excited that conversation is back on this phenomenon.

The guy at Elliottwave Reboot always says "a triangle and a diagonal have the same internal substructure - only their function is different".

Somewhere toward the end of trend the B-waves must be magically transforming wave function... or something like that...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,662
  • May 6, 2014 2:58pm May 6, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting emptymind
venzen, i couldn't find any data i can use on gold. i need some numbers from the roman empire or atleast when the british pound became a reserve currency. i need data on the early days of gold trading to compare it to bitcoin. gold is generations ahead of bitcoin and just doesn't seem logical to compare anything in modern times
I remember you posted a graph comparing gold in the 1970's bull with current bitcoins?
  • #3,663
  • Edited 3:59pm May 6, 2014 2:59pm | Edited 3:59pm
Nice post
Yes, I think next triangle would break the rule we found and the TL.
This pattern repetition, I can only justify it by the nature of BTC.

The nature of that beast make it impossible to end a year with more BTC than you owned the previous one.
Doesn't matter how good of a trader we are. Doesn't matter how much extra fiat we are investing. We all, more or less slowly, having less and less of it.

Because of that, the notion of risk/reward is different in this game.
In the decline since november, a good trader probably now have 20 percent more BTC and the same amount of fiat as of the peak.
But the lower we get, the more BTC it takes to drop the prices.
And we are now lacking holder with those amount to move the market.

That's when the second specificity of BTC intervene. It's a stock with a cost of production.
And we are now entering this zone, where miner would prefer take the risk of seeing BTC going to zero than loosing their precious.

Now back to those triangle, to put it simply the odds of profit are decreasing. Since less holder are now able or willing to initiate a market move.
And the chances of loss are increasing since the period necessary to achieve the same profit is not diminishing as fast as the potential profit side. Creating those 2/3 and 1/3 of triangle moves.


ps : the EW non sens comment from Chodpaba, I don't hold against, he /she wasn't a Gann based trader, but on Bayes Theorem, which by principle is absolute and tend to eliminate any sort of uncertainty, while EW is fluid and relative.

edit : Venzen I just read your article repost on reddit, I don't know how you do to stay zen with the constant absence of intelligence in the comment people post. Very good articleS, indeed, as Emptymind and KO said. Seems like your objectivity attract the idiotic response of both tulip believer and fanboys. That's a sign of a very pertinent journalistic work, keep it up
  • #3,664
  • May 6, 2014 3:42pm May 6, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting kingtour
{quote} I remember you posted a graph comparing gold in the 1970's bull with current bitcoins?
that's true! i forgot about that... my memory is really bad i can't even remember my own birthday! in that case i was comparing it to a generic wave 5 on the gold chart - i have no idea what degree that was. i want to compare the same degree waves just like the dow. i guess that is impossible because gold is really ancient. only way is to build a time machine and go back in history 5000 years and try to find how many cows one ounce of gold buys and write that down every month........
  • #3,665
  • Edited 7:57pm May 6, 2014 3:55pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} ...BTC-e price chart that went to the lower TL at 102... that _can_ happen again... Did that person say "EW nonsense" ?! Why, the cheek of it!
"only in russia" can that happen... nowhere else!
  • #3,666
  • May 6, 2014 4:47pm May 6, 2014 4:47pm
By the way, I know I like to bother everyone with NXT, so I apologize in advance for doing so once again
First just to be open, yes I have a few BTC in it and I'm at a loss at the moment, but my interest isn't related to profit and I'm willing to take the risk to forget about those coin and wait a few years.

Most of the "scam coins" I have spotted usually come and die, sometime do a few comeback but always share the same disappearing fate made of spikes.

To be honest their is probably more profit to be made with BTC and LTC and I believe NXT could stay in a niche forever or worst, be turned into a SR fiasco.

I just like their spirit ; a certain maturity in their community (even their 1000's page long btctalk thread discussing the work in progress is very readable and troll-free).
Stakeholder are staying involve and rewarding fair valued bounty to keep on the progress.
Also I appreciate the "out in the open" implication of open-source dev' working on their on side-project.
It has evolved a lot since I last ramble about it

Anyway the asset exchange is launching in 6days http://www.nxtcommunity.org/
and their newsletters are a great read (libertarian in spirit more than words) if you have the time : http://nxter.org/tag/nxt-newsletter/
also the wallet, forging, mining, lending and good store are promising and now easier to use.

Just wanted to say, it remind me a lot of what i missed in BTC when I thought LR was superior...
  • #3,667
  • Edited 8:17pm May 6, 2014 7:33pm | Edited 8:17pm
you like triangles? ok!
daily btc-e

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: buy.png Size: 9 KB


bottom is in.... buy!
  • #3,668
  • May 6, 2014 8:05pm May 6, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello KO, how are northern territory treating you ? I hope you are having a good time The next couple of day will be interesting. Do you still have the feeling of the bottom was in ?
"Mornin all.
No L_L I don't think the bottom is in yet........I think we are still in 3 of 5 of 5 of 2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 43 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,669
  • May 6, 2014 10:25pm May 6, 2014 10:25pm
Quoting venzen
i just thought of something... i'm really getting a lot of hits for my analysis posted at CryptoCoinsNews. I guess Bitcoin fans really want to know what's happening with price, because my analysis articles just cause a flood of 1000s of people a day for a few days. Some of the comments are positive and constructive but there is also a large contingent of trolls as we see them at BTC-e trollbox and tradingview, etc. My concern is that they find us here, because i mostly use the same username at most websites. I like this forum the way it is - we...
Venzen... I would hate to see a bunch of crap being posted by 1000's of people. I hardly ever post, but I read every single one of them. I am so new at EW and trading in general that I am still integrating the vocabulary and some of the basic principles.

I have done lots of real estate as investments in my life but very little trading.

Either way I would still focus on the people that are here right now providing massive value with their insights. Not sure I would pay too much attention to 1000 posters though - that is a lot of scrolling !!!!!

Masalai
  • #3,670
  • May 7, 2014 7:42am May 7, 2014 7:42am
Quoting lady_luck
Nice post Yes, I think next triangle would break the rule we found and the TL. This pattern repetition, I can only justify it by the nature of BTC. The nature of that beast make it impossible to end a year with more BTC than you owned the previous one. Doesn't matter how good of a trader we are. Doesn't matter how much extra fiat we are investing. We all, more or less slowly, having less and less of it. Because of that, the notion of risk/reward is different in this game. In the decline since november, a good trader probably now have 20 percent...
i did respond to those reddit comments... to remain zen i think it helps to "talk softly but carry a big stick"!

i agree with yourassessment of the increasing risk to be short now... and i think there is a big Bitcoin event in Beijing on May 10th which should be generating some news to catalyze the market.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,671
  • May 7, 2014 7:51am May 7, 2014 7:51am
Quoting Masalai
{quote} Venzen... I would hate to see a bunch of crap being posted by 1000's of people. I hardly ever post, but I read every single one of them. I am so new at EW and trading in general that I am still integrating the vocabulary and some of the basic principles. I have done lots of real estate as investments in my life but very little trading. Either way I would still focus on the people that are here right now providing massive value with their insights. Not sure I would pay too much attention to 1000 posters though - that is a lot of scrolling...
Hi Masalai,

Thanks for adding your voice. I looked at the options and, unfortunately, there is no practical way to limit who posts here. The only way to limit posts is by me specifying that a user should be a either a medium or high impact member (those flags next to my own and KiwiOz's usernames - we've been here a long time and accumulated lots of "buddies"). To increase one's "impact" rating you have to be quite active in the forums and have lots of people subscribe to you, which may be hard work for those people who mostly participate in this thread only and do not want to go run around building FF relationships. I'll find out from the FF representatives what other options exist - so we know what to do when we need it
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,672
  • May 7, 2014 8:06am May 7, 2014 8:06am
First time posting here, I follow the btc/usd and am always looking for something promising. The effects of the summit in china will be interesting. If anyone hasn't seen this article it has a more bearish attitude it seems.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...fter-pboc.html
  • #3,673
  • May 7, 2014 8:10am May 7, 2014 8:10am
another article, its hard not to find bears around the bitcoin. It scare the banks too much, but Id thought i would share in case no one has seen these yet.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...47251552490962
  • #3,674
  • Edited 11:23am May 7, 2014 10:47am | Edited 11:23am
im getting a high by the end of august.... estimating 9K to 10K according to the TL work by venzen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: upp.png Size: 9 KB

feels like it is related to the crashing of the global stock markets and a massive move by gold/bitcoin
  • #3,675
  • May 7, 2014 2:44pm May 7, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting emptymind
im getting a high by the end of august.... estimating 9K to 10K according to the TL work by venzen {image} feels like it is related to the crashing of the global stock markets and a massive move by gold/bitcoin
nice, what's the light blue number at the Nov/Dec high? it's obscured... also what are these blue numbers? days between peaks?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,676
  • May 7, 2014 2:48pm May 7, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting weti
First time posting here, I follow the btc/usd and am always looking for something promising. The effects of the summit in china will be interesting. If anyone hasn't seen this article it has a more bearish attitude it seems. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...fter-pboc.html
Thank you, weti, and welcome. It's a bit quiet today because most of the regular members are taking time out to chew their nails over the rising price!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,677
  • May 7, 2014 4:16pm May 7, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} nice, what's the light blue number at the Nov/Dec high? it's obscured... also what are these blue numbers? days between peaks?
hello venzen, that blue number is 470........... yes seems like it, days between peeks. remember we did similar calc some time ago but i have no idea how we got july something... thats like a month early!
  • #3,678
  • May 7, 2014 4:35pm May 7, 2014 4:35pm
for anyone unfamiliar with the above chart with the 2 blue triangles....... it is called harmonic trading. the above pattern is a bat pattern. there are many patterns to choose from bearish/bullish. it's quite interesting. it's all about the fibs and how they relate to each other

Attached Image

the above is a bullish bat pattern
  • #3,679
  • May 7, 2014 7:44pm May 7, 2014 7:44pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} hello venzen, that blue number is 470........... yes seems like it, days between peeks. remember we did similar calc some time ago but i have no idea how we got july something... thats like a month early!
emptymind, i just double-checked and the correct date is July 24/25... i think the time scale on the last chart you posted changes in May - look how May, June, July, etc are smaller than the preceding months. Strange
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,680
  • May 7, 2014 8:42pm May 7, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} emptymind, i just double-checked and the correct date is July 24/25... i think the time scale on the last chart you posted changes in May - look how May, June, July, etc are smaller than the preceding months. Strange
thank you venzen; i think you just found a problem with the x-axis! it's not linear! its random! it's not even log scale... i don't know what it is! the good news is we get to touch 10K level a month earlier that's even better!
0 traders viewing now