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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,521
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:06am Apr 30, 2014 8:06am
Quoting venzen
{quote} oh lord... i remember FOMC! mad nerves... the announcement, spike this way... is that a positive? reversal!... oh no, i positioned wrong! :0 hedge no more... thank you Bitcoin... no more... now it's just plain sailing on the Titanic through the Mt.Icebergs
Money Makes Money
  • #3,522
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:11am Apr 30, 2014 8:11am
Quoting venzen
{quote} oh lord... i remember FOMC! mad nerves... the announcement, spike this way... is that a positive? reversal!... oh no, i positioned wrong! :0 hedge no more... thank you Bitcoin... no more... now it's just plain sailing on the Titanic through the Mt.Icebergs
Can't remember how I stumbled on this thread.. Just trolling through boredom...But I sure am glad I did. Haven't had so much fun since Adam was a cowboy.....
Money Makes Money
  • #3,523
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:26am Apr 30, 2014 8:26am
Look out below......
Attached Image
Money Makes Money
  • #3,524
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:36am Apr 30, 2014 8:36am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yup n y' gotta be in to win..... Venzen. What are your thoughts. Would it be better to buy....Say..$1000 worth of bitcoins at the right time or $1000 worth of the lesser coins like peercoin.??

Good morning
Look like I didn't miss too much this time.
As Venzen said, most altcoin are stuck to BTC movement. From EW perspective it doesn't make sens. How can coin with different date of creation be all at the same wave degree ?
Well, I was following NXT this year and LTC the year before, when they only came out, but rushed a peak faster and higher than BTC (increasing their ratio/btc), and then stick to BTC.
Seems to me, their sudden spikes, make them close the gap with BTC in term of cycle.
Also their is no way to purchase them without purchasing BTC first, they are all dependent of the first for the cash flow.

They always will be positioned in second in term of BTC cycle.
They might rise higher, but BTC will be first to rise.
Then they might fall harder.
In term of waves, altcoin do their best during wave 4 and 5 of BTC. And fall the most during wave A.

A superposition of chart : btcusd and altcoin/btc can show that.

Not sure if it's make sens...
  • #3,525
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:45am Apr 30, 2014 8:45am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yup n y' gotta be in to win..... Venzen. What are your thoughts. Would it be better to buy....Say..$1000 worth of bitcoins at the right time or $1000 worth of the lesser coins like peercoin.??
lady_luck, chonchi, emptymind, kingtour please give your opinions too...


In my view, KO, Bitcoin is the original and the best. These other coins have clouds of uncertainty hanging over them - they don't have near the same caliber of developers that maintain them or improve them and there are more and more attacks against the cryptocurrencies. So there are unknown vulnerabilities waiting to be exploited and with not enough firepower to fight back.

Other vulnerabilities are known. Litecoin and its clones use the Scrypt hashing algorithm and various manufacturers have found a way to build circuits that can mine these coins at hundreds of multiples of their current network speed. So when these devices (ASICs) hit the market in the coming months, we cannot be sure what effect they will have on these coins' markets. If we can determine that we may find that a few coins are preparing to go to the moon. But i don't know. Google "scrypt ASIC invasion".

My advice would be to invest mainly in Bitcoin with 10% percent in two or three coins you believe might benefit from a) Bitcoin going up or b) ASICs affecting their market.

I personally, chose to stay away from Litecoin and its clones (except for Anoncoin) and go for the ASIC resistant coins instead: Execoin and Hirocoin. Execoin is planning to implement some of the anonymous features of Anoncoin, but it's all highly experimental, so a risk for a chance...

Why don't you use your GPU to mine some of these coins instead? And then invest fully in Bitcoin since we have a team analysing its price here.

btw - i'm not saying Litecoin is a loser, i'm saying i'm unsure what is going to happen to it. It's chart implies much higher highs - or does it?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,526
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:51am Apr 30, 2014 8:51am
Quoting venzen
{quote} lady_luck, chonchi, emptymind, kingtour please give your opinions too...
and gjgjg too

you're on the Bitcointalk forums a lot so you probably have some insight to share.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,527
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:55am Apr 30, 2014 8:55am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good morning Look like I didn't miss too much this time. As Venzen said, most altcoin are stuck to BTC movement. From EW perspective it doesn't make sens. How can coin with different date of creation be all at the same wave degree ? Well, I was following NXT this year and LTC the year before, when they only came out, but rushed a peak faster and higher than BTC (increasing their ratio/btc), and then stick to BTC. Seems to me, their sudden spikes, make them close the gap with BTC in term of cycle. Also their is no way to purchase them...
hi L_L,

yes, today has seen slow movement in the chart, but there is a tension about it, as if the bulls cannot get above 440 and are getting frustrated...

if they manage to get above 440 tho... i'm scared where it might go - i'm fully short right now o_0
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,528
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:56am Apr 30, 2014 8:56am
Quoting venzen
{quote} lady_luck, chonchi, emptymind, kingtour please give your opinions too... In my view, KO, Bitcoin is the original and the best. These other coins have clouds of uncertainty hanging over them - they don't have near the same caliber of developers that maintain them or improve them and there are more and more attacks against the cryptocurrencies. So there are unknown vulnerabilities waiting to be exploited and with not enough firepower to fight back. Other vulnerabilities are known. Litecoin and its clones use the Scrypt hashing algorithm and...
Thanks mate. good advice.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,529
  • Edited 9:22am Apr 30, 2014 9:06am | Edited 9:22am
Would that work for LTC ?
C is more than 1.6 of A, i see why it can be worrying... And 4 overlap-ish...
http://i.imgur.com/Lz9O2Vw.png
  • #3,530
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:57am Apr 30, 2014 9:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} lady_luck, chonchi, emptymind, kingtour please give your opinions too... In my view, KO, Bitcoin is the original and the best. These other coins have clouds of uncertainty hanging over them - they don't have near the same caliber of developers that maintain them or improve them and there are more and more attacks against the cryptocurrencies. So there are unknown vulnerabilities waiting to be exploited and with not enough firepower to fight back. Other vulnerabilities are known. Litecoin and its clones use the Scrypt hashing algorithm and...
Be open minded. If BTC finally succeed, there must be a large number of altercoins also succeed.

- one currency is not enough for the diversified worlds' need. Moving a billion across countries should not use the same currency as you buy a coffee.

- When 1 BTC worth more than a person's annual income, there's nothing you can prevent him from buying cheaper (even risker) things like LTC. Remember while altercoins can never be more expensive than BTC, they can easily surpass the appreciation of BTC from now on. For example, in the past few weeks, dogcoin +150% while BTC +60%.

- Altercoins can prevent BTC to bring the world to catastrophic deflation. BTC can prevent altercoins to bring the world to inflation. There will be an equilibrium.
  • #3,531
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:31am Apr 30, 2014 10:31am
Quoting kingtour
{quote} Be open minded. If BTC finally succeed, there must be a large number of altercoins also succeed. - one currency is not enough for the diversified worlds' need. Moving a billion across countries should not use the same currency as you buy a coffee. - When 1 BTC worth more than a person's annual income, there's nothing you can prevent him from buying cheaper (even risker) things like LTC. Remember while altercoins can never be more expensive than BTC, they can easily surpass the appreciation of BTC from now on. For example, in the past few...
great perspective, kingtour!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,532
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:35am Apr 30, 2014 10:35am
Quoting lady_luck
Would that work for LTC ? C is more than 1.6 of A, i see why it can be worrying... And 4 overlap-ish... {image}
And 4 overlap-ish... very clever!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,533
  • Edited 11:06am Apr 30, 2014 10:44am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting venzen
{quote} And 4 overlap-ish... very clever!
Yeah this LTCUSD chart can definitely easily be argued as an impulse wave structure...
But LTC did that already in a previous B wave structure to $21/0.034, so I'm not too worried. Although, I wouldn't exclude seeing 458 on btce before the next move down...
  • #3,534
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:18am Apr 30, 2014 11:18am
Quoting venzen
{quote} and gjgjg too you're on the Bitcointalk forums a lot so you probably have some insight to share.
Haha thanks for not forgetting me im not so memorable, so its not an easy task!

IMO I would agree with Kingtour's comments that the market is big enough for multiple coins, but I cant see there being more than 3 - 6 in the long-long term. Many of the current ones are simply tools for the full timers to pump and dump and make a nice profit. Even some coins with strong communities like FTC that I mentioned earlier, are dwindling. Some other coins do offer improved functionality, and if Im not mistaken (someone please correct me) BTC can easily adopt improvements made by others, ala apple vs samsung vs MS style. Some aspects wont be copied, I can imagine Primecoin's function (of being used to discover new prime numbers) probably wont be adopted by BTC, but eg. DNS (like) features of Namecoin probably will be adopted.

Anyway, I was an investor in many alts, because in the winter '13 boom i made far more % on LTC and others compared to BTC - but i invested a lot less in them, so my BTC total balance is higher.
At that time, it wasnt so certain that BTC would remain the dominant coin, so since then ive been putting small amounts into coins that seem interesting (eg. NXT, AUR / SPA).
But it's failry well established by now that BTC will be the dominant altcoin going forward - it has too many investors and too much publicity by now. I think the only thing that will topple BTC will require something to first profoundly undermine BTC ecosystem, and only after confidence in BTC is damaged then any alternatives will have the huge task of convincing all the BTC businesses and investors to make the move over to it. No easy feat.

Anyway, anyway... in the last few weeks I'm closing off my alt coin investments, many at a loss and putting them back into BTC because of this realisation - ill probably keep some LTC and maybe one or two others. So, I'd def keep the main focus on BTC for the short / medium term. Until something really threatens BTC, I'd say the alt world will be mostly pump and dump and novelty. So I'd agree to keep interest in all these alts to around 10%, there is a chance that one will take a major role, but of the 145 coins (or there abouts), its pretty hard to decide which is worth it.
And now that BTC has had it's big push into the mainstream, i think it will be hard for any alt to catch the same wave in the way they did in '13. The future price rallys will probably only be felt by a select few. Well, that's my 0.2mBTC anyway Hope it made sense:nerd:
  • #3,535
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:33am Apr 30, 2014 11:33am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yeah this LTCUSD chart can definitely easily be argued as an impulse wave structure... But LTC did that already in a previous B wave structure to $21/0.034, so I'm not too worried. Although, I wouldn't exclude seeing 458 on btce before the next move down...
I was watching the BTC-e chart on MT4 mobile earlier and i noticed that - completely in sync with my phone's clock seconds - the BTC price was ticking up 0.001 BTC every second, it did this for about a minute then stopped and then started again for 30secs, right now its doing it again...

It cannot be orders because the min order is 0.01, so this is, in my understanding, BTC-e ticking their own price for the sake of generating movement. Evidently they want to tick it up above 440 because there are orders waiting up there so between the sells and stop losses and then buys and stops being triggered lower i think a direction will emerge.

I agree with you L_L that we'll probably see sustained move up followed by a drop...

But BTC-e are naughty for doing that... and what are we going to do? nothing because we can't do anything about it
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,536
  • Edited 1:19pm Apr 30, 2014 12:45pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I was watching the BTC-e chart on MT4 mobile earlier and i noticed that - completely in sync with my phone's clock seconds - the BTC price was ticking up 0.001 BTC every second, it did this for about a minute then stopped and then started again for 30secs, right now its doing it again... It cannot be orders because the min order is 0.01, so this is, in my understanding, BTC-e ticking their own price for the sake of generating movement. Evidently they want to tick it up above 440 because there are orders waiting up there so between the sells...

That's weird 0.001 could be the fee on 0.5btc order... I don't know what else it means tho... Would it be illegal for a broker to use their fee from sell order to buy back the asset being sold ?
It could also be a bot, selling and buying continuously, selling 0.012 buying 0.013...

RSI and stoch are sending me some strong bearish signal from H1 to H4.

To change subject, I've just had an other successful BTC sell (in person with cash) on localbitcoin, in the past year I've met close to 10 different buyer (who usually deal with larger amount than what I've met them for), most of them are also traders, and it's strange to me, because they mostly admitted to base their analysis on news, computer issued signals and very basic pattern recognition.
I guess by consistently following the same process it can work, i'd describe their method as some sort of brute force trading, they only need 51% in their favor to make some sort of profit.
So every-time I'm feeling lucky to be able to exchange personalized charts and methods with you, KO, chonchy, emptymind, kingtour and all the other amazing traders from here.
  • #3,537
  • Apr 30, 2014 1:21pm Apr 30, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} That's weird 0.001 could be the fee on 0.5btc order... I don't know what else it means tho... Would it be illegal for a broker to use their fee from sell order to buy back the asset being sold ? It could also be a bot, selling and buying continuously, selling 0.012 buying 0.013... RSI and stoch are sending me some strong bearish signal from H1 to H4. To change subject, I've just had an other successful BTC sell (in person with cash) on localbitcoin, in the past year I've met close to 10 different buyer (who usually deal with larger amount...
Yeah, we're lucky here - we have a good team with a relaxed atmosphere to work in.

I think you're right about a bot and that thoe increments i saw were not individual trades but the ticker moving in 0.001 increments due to maybe a 0.5 trade. I remember someone on the IRC #bitcoin channel complaining about that earlier today.

Even if the last E wave (i believe) overshoots, it is unlikely to go past 450, so i'm not concerned about its distance - its the time its taking - wow, its so painfully slow...

I posted earlier today about IRC... did you see that? Sometimes i prefer to stay away from IRC because the chatter can be distracting... but other times it's amusing!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,538
  • Apr 30, 2014 1:45pm Apr 30, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Yeah, we're lucky here - we have a good team with a relaxed atmosphere to work in. I think you're right about a bot and that thoe increments i saw were not individual trades but the ticker moving in 0.001 increments due to maybe a 0.5 trade. I remember someone on the IRC #bitcoin channel complaining about that earlier today. Even if the last E wave (i believe) overshoots, it is unlikely to go past 450, so i'm not concerned about its distance - its the time its taking - wow, its so painfully slow... I posted earlier today about IRC... did...

Yeah. I'm not really too keen on IRC, or live chats in general. I like chatting on forums tho It's a different feel to actually take the time to answer and read on a forum. It's like the difference between writing a letter instead of making a phone call

I have to admit the BTCe trollbox is sometime one of my guilty pleasure. But in general chats behold too much talk about conspiracy theory, arguing, and black and white perspective on the world for my taste.
  • #3,539
  • Apr 30, 2014 2:45pm Apr 30, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yeah. I'm not really too keen on IRC, or live chats in general. I like chatting on forums tho It's a different feel to actually take the time to answer and read on a forum. It's like the difference between writing a letter instead of making a phone call I have to admit the BTCe trollbox is sometime one of my guilty pleasure. But in general chats behold too much talk about conspiracy theory, arguing, and black and white perspective on the world for my taste.
yes, and a lot of that on IRC - random people dropping in saying "I need some Bitcoins!"

forum chat is measured - and good for our purposes of analysis... its true.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,540
  • Edited 6:49pm Apr 30, 2014 2:47pm | Edited 6:49pm
This is a nice thread!

Now that this post got approved (thank you mods) I can finally say what I came to say.

----------------


Quoting KiwiOz
Wow venzen. get a load of this. I emailed Bit4x which is controlled by VenetFX. Copy of email & reply. Hi, >I note you do not provide bitcoin on your Demo platform.............Why not.?? What exactly are we not providing? Perhaps you need to read the instructions once more. >Are you intending to provide for wallet to wallet deposits & withdrawals in the near future.? What? >Your current method is very cumbersome. You can have it secure or fast, you pick. If you like fast, go on mtgox. Oh wait... >How long does it take for a deposit to appear on...
I do not think its fair you did not include the whole conversation if you are bringing it out in public, it is not professional (http://trilema.com/2013/bitcoin-asse...d-regulations/ : see 1a, 1b and 1c), as you like to call it.
My reply to me being 'rude bastard' was the following;
----
Since we were laughing it out on IRC, you might as well get the log;
http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=29-04-2014#649268
GEORGE: Look at these salesmen. The only thing these guys fear is the walk-out. No matter what they say, you say, "I’ll walk out of here right now!"
(A salesman approaches)
SALESMAN: Can I help you with something?
GEORGE: (Threatening) Hold it! One more step and we’re walkin’!
JERRY: (Scolding) George. (To salesman) Sorry, we’re just waiting for David Puddy.
GEORGE: (Still with a tone) He is. You don’t know what I’m doin’ here.
----
Anyway, I have been called worse than that, mostly by clueless noobs and other scammers, while my public trackrecord anyone can write into says, well, this ( http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdet...ick=kakobrekla ).
Follow the links, and perhaps you will actually learn something from this mess.


Edit: edited the links, embedded won't show.


Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, Hmmm so are you the one who like eastern-European tennis players ?
Hello there, given they are female, yes, I do.

Answering here, because my posts do not get published straight away;

Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I don't want to emit any judgement. But when money is involved, it seems fair the relay public information that 5 minutes of google can provide. First of I guess this is the thread that brought you here, relayed by gjgjgj : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155859.0 So bitbet : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192905.0 And bitbet again : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134799.0;wap2 And mpex https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=350103.0 And btc4x : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=114818.20 And btc4x again : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?to...736#msg1317736 And if not enough question were already raised : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=211298.0 More serious sources than the youngsters from bitcointalk : http://forexmagnates.com/bitcoin-den...ding-at-bit4x/ And also : http://www.donnaforex.com/forum/index.php?topic=10008.0 I wouldn't say your reputation is questionable, after-all gambling and forex website are classified as high risk of charge-back by credit card company. Where money can be made, money can be lost, then false accusation may flow. I'm not accusing you,. As you say yourself so often in your posts , you don't like to defend yourself (made obvious by the fact that you constantly do so). I respect that. So i won't say that the oldest in the book is to say "no". Again and again, and even in the rudest fashion, until people beg you to take their money. And I won't mention convenient lies, such as false FSA submission. Or absence of financial audit. Last, please understand, I do not care for arguments, I have no personal interest in hearing an answer and I'm sure potential clients can make up their own mind. I call that the side effect list at the back of the medicine box, and it's for my fellow traders more than the other party involve.

And that is exactly why we use web of trust.
http://wiki.bitcoin-assets.com/wot_and_reputation


Anyway since I already got the attention, lets do a little thought experiment.
Lets say, you wish to withdraw your funds from a broker or an exchange and you get a reply:

A)
Hello,
My name is Natalie and I am responsible for our customer support. Due to insufficient CAD on our account at the moment, we are unable to send CAD withdrawals and today is a public holiday in Japan. We will be working on having the conversion done after the long weekend to have enough CAD in order to process your withdrawal. Our apologies once again for the delay and inconvenience this has caused and thank you for your patience while we are working to resolve this matter.(a reply from (now defunct) Mtgox support, taken from: http://trilema.com/2012/strategic-superiority-a-saga/)

B) Your f--king money is on the f--king way.

Which one do you prefer? Which one, do you think, its the professional one? The answer to this questions separates professionals from clueless pretenders, so pick your team.

And to end this long educational post, allow me to post this quote:
Quote
mircea_popescu: dentist = scam. not a scam AS SUCH, in the sense that it does fix your teeth but a) you have to make appointments and they charge if you cancel them without notice and b) it costs money.
mircea_popescu: voodoo specialist = doctor aaaaa++++ would use again.
mircea_popescu: not in the sense that he fixes your teeth, but very good service.
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