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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,481
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:01pm Apr 29, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} being right isn't as important as figuring the best key points to gradually switch from one count to another..
It's 100% subjective and sometimes we see the same count and then that's exciting and useful.

But look for example how emptymind is counting 3w moves as 5 waves. emptymind is not wrong, it is because there's no clear directive for distinguishing 3w and 5w moves other than the "eye". Well, for me i apply the rule of "channeling" before a move can be 5 waves in my book, but then they don't teach that on the internet these days so wave counters now don't use that.

Your statement above is true. we look for important junctures and evidence that validates one count over another - that's the most useful part.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,482
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:05pm Apr 29, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Thanks for sharing, because it's your reality - and mine too - so great to hear we're experiencing the same. If i didn't take the job writing for BTC I wouldn't be surviving right now - or i'd have to work on a boat or a rubber plantation somewhere. The only thing that makes the BTC wages work for me is that my wages are calculated in constant dollars and then converted and paid out in BTC at the last moment. And while in decline, I convert them straight back to dollars as soon as possible so I can pay the rent and have stable fiat to buy...

May be if it's base it only on stats.
Most BTC top are within 1000% range of the previous low. And take 60 day in average.
Most correction retrace around 70% area of the whole rise. And last about 200 days.
I'll try to backtrack with previous peak's data and see the results of different method...

But spending days staring at charts instead are so tempting
  • #3,483
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:43pm Apr 29, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} gjgjg, hi of course, you can cross post but please link back here so people can see the context and so interested traders may join us here.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,484
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:45pm Apr 29, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote}
sorry about that my friend. the email response you got is out of order and i will gladly give him a public spanking for that
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,485
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:46pm Apr 29, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} May be if it's base it only on stats. Most BTC top are within 1000% range of the previous low. And take 60 day in average. Most correction retrace around 70% area of the whole rise. And last about 200 days. I'll try to backtrack with previous peak's data and see the results of different method... But spending days staring at charts instead are so tempting
This is where we develop our philosophical nature and our truly deep thoughts: from cumulative years spent just staring...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,486
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:57pm Apr 29, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} sorry about that my friend. the email response you got is out of order and i will gladly give him a public spanking for that
Good on you mate. Don't worry about me. I can take & give it back too....
Money Makes Money
  • #3,487
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:57pm Apr 29, 2014 6:57pm
BTW,

i don't know if anybody is already doing this, or interested, but you might enjoy having IRC open and read what's being discussed in the #bitcoin, #bitcoin-dev, #bitcoin-otc (Over-the-counter), #bitcoin-pricetalk, etc.

To join these channels go to http://webchat.freenode.net/
choose a nick(name)
type the channel: e.g. #bitcoin

To learn more about IRC you can check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:IRC/Tutorial

it's fun and informative, just be careful that you don't get sucked into conversations instead of staring blankly at your trading charts, ok?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,488
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:58pm Apr 29, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Good on you mate. Don't worry about me. I can take & give it back too....
well of course, you're part Kiwi !
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,489
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:02pm Apr 29, 2014 7:02pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi emptymind, remember before i pointed you to the EWP textbook where they show at least 5 examples of diagonals lasting 3 - 4 months. i know you respect these web sources you quote and you obviously learn a lot from them, but they are wrong about diagonals. In the end who are "they" and what is Elliott Wave? They are no better than any of use here - they have the same EWP textbook and the single authority of Ralph Elliott to work from as us. That's why EW counters eventually realize that its all subjective, because it is an interpreted...
Quite right. I am seeing an ABC which may not be complete for this retrace. Remember the "extreme" target I mentioned yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdm30.png Size: 44 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,490
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:04pm Apr 29, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} well of course, you're part Kiwi !
Money Makes Money
  • #3,491
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:07pm Apr 29, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} sorry about that my friend. the email response you got is out of order and i will gladly give him a public spanking for that
Yes Arrogance & plain blo0dy rudeness is not what we want from our brokers support.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,492
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:18pm Apr 29, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting venzen
BTW, i don't know if anybody is already doing this, or interested, but you might enjoy having IRC open and read what's being discussed in the #bitcoin, #bitcoin-dev, #bitcoin-otc (Over-the-counter), #bitcoin-pricetalk, etc. To join these channels go to http://webchat.freenode.net/ choose a nick(name) type the channel: e.g. #bitcoin To learn more about IRC you can check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:IRC/Tutorial it's fun and informative, just be careful that you don't get sucked into conversations instead of staring...
Yo venzen. Thanks for the links...
Money Makes Money
  • #3,493
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:49pm Apr 29, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Quite right. I am seeing an ABC which may not be complete for this retrace. Remember the "extreme" target I mentioned yesterday. {image}
Thanks for posting this chart, KO. It confirms the corrective nature of current PA. From around 447 it should decline strongly because the way its channeling between the two lightblue trendlines shows a triangle (a-b-c-d-e) - funny that Ralph Elliott called it a triangle if it's actually a paralelogram or "flag" shape, but anyway - it's corrective and should be followed by complete retracement and then more downside.

Alternatively this is a wave 1 diagonal up, but there is less evidence of advance than there is for correction - the main clue for me being the low angle and lack of "throw"
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,494
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:09pm Apr 29, 2014 8:09pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Thanks for posting this chart, KO. It confirms the corrective nature of current PA. From around 447 it should decline strongly because the way its channeling between the two lightblue trendlines shows a triangle (a-b-c-d-e) - funny that Ralph Elliott called it a triangle if it's actually a paralelogram or "flag" shape, but anyway - it's corrective and should be followed by complete retracement and then more downside. Alternatively this is a wave 1 diagonal up, but there is less evidence of advance than there is for correction - the main...
Yeah, I would call it a Bull Flag....Much easier to say than paralelogram :nerd: ..May still go to the top target.447. Should know in the next hour or three...
Money Makes Money
  • #3,495
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:12pm Apr 29, 2014 8:12pm
This is not scientific and open to subjective interpretation, but it's still something i notice a lot - but it can also fail miserably:

The white trendlines roughly outline boundaries of price action - or important lines that sometimes become evident on a chart.

Notice where they form an apex... when price action reaches this point on the x axis (time) it often reacts strongly.

Depending on how accurately i drew the white bounding trendlines, we should then expect continued advance (or sideways alligator's snout) until PA lines up (on the x axis, not y) with the apex.

Sometime between now and the next 8 hours seems likely.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H1_30Apr2014_c.png Size: 253 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,496
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:34pm Apr 29, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yeah, I would call it a Bull Flag....Much easier to say than paralelogram :nerd: ..May still go to the top target.447. Should know in the next hour or three...
OOOoooooooppss. I mean BEAR Flag......
Money Makes Money
  • #3,497
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:42pm Apr 29, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting venzen
This is not scientific and open to subjective interpretation, but it's still something i notice a lot - but it can also fail miserably: The white trendlines roughly outline boundaries of price action - or important lines that sometimes become evident on a chart. Notice where they form an apex... when price action reaches this point on the x axis (time) it often reacts strongly. Depending on how accurately i drew the white bounding trendlines, we should then expect continued advance (or sideways alligator's snout) until PA lines up (on the x axis,...
yes. great for trading the breakouts..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh1.png Size: 36 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,498
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:48pm Apr 29, 2014 8:48pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yeah, I would call it a Bull Flag....Much easier to say than paralelogram :nerd: ..May still go to the top target.447. Should know in the next hour or three...
I also think it'll go for the target, because every time these apexes play out its as if price desperately races toward the point at the last minute - the ultimate fake-out!

I actually first noticed this in gold - and it worked mostly during the declines.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,499
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:56pm Apr 29, 2014 8:56pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} yes. great for trading the breakouts.. {image}
I didn't explain myself well, here it is again but with lightblue arrows indicating the reaction point on the time axis

So where those white trendlines (or vector lines, i guess) intersect to form an apex that is the point in time when the market will reverse...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H1_30Apr2014_d.png Size: 257 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,500
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:07pm Apr 29, 2014 9:07pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I didn't explain myself well, here it is again but with lightblue arrows indicating the reaction point on the time axis So where those white trendlines (or vector lines, i guess) intersect to form an apex that is the point in time when the market will reverse... {image}
Uhuh....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 36 KB
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