Bitcoin technical analysis | Page 174 | Crypto Craft

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

BTC/USD

Similar Threads

Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 21 replies

Bitcoin Analysis 22 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

Attachments: Bitcoin technical analysis
Exit Attachments

Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,461
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:06am Apr 29, 2014 8:06am
Quoting KiwiOz
Wow venzen. get a load of this. I emailed Bit4x which is controlled by VenetFX. Copy of email & reply. Hi, >I note you do not provide bitcoin on your Demo platform.............Why not.?? What exactly are we not providing? Perhaps you need to read the instructions once more. >Are you intending to provide for wallet to wallet deposits & withdrawals in the near future.? What? >Your current method is very cumbersome. You can have it secure or fast, you pick. If you like fast, go on mtgox. Oh wait... >How long does it take for a deposit to appear on...
Perhaps I got him on a bad hair day..............
Money Makes Money
  • #3,462
  • Edited 8:17am Apr 29, 2014 8:07am | Edited 8:17am
Quoting KiwiOz
Wow venzen. get a load of this. I emailed Bit4x which is controlled by VenetFX. Copy of email & reply. Hi, >I note you do not provide bitcoin on your Demo platform.............Why not.?? What exactly are we not providing? Perhaps you need to read the instructions once more. >Are you intending to provide for wallet to wallet deposits & withdrawals in the near future.? What? >Your current method is very cumbersome. You can have it secure or fast, you pick. If you like fast, go on mtgox. Oh wait... >How long does it take for a deposit to appear on...
Bahaha ! Love your wit KO !
Usually when it's good to be true...
I mean, despite their audit I'm still unsure of Bitfinex future, I'm very doubtful of the BTC community. Too many 19yo who knows two lines of coding and "wanna be rich" guys.

Plus... I know it's internet, but when it comes to running a business you at least want a real name, and Matic and Kocevar are two German and Slovenian tennis player... Usually the creator of a company doesn't even get near answering clients emails.
  • #3,463
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:15am Apr 29, 2014 8:15am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Bahaha ! Love your wit KO ! Usually when it's good to be true... I mean, despite their audit I'm still unsure of Bitfinex future, I'm very doubtful of the BTC community. Too many 19yo who knows two lines of coding and "wanna be rich" guys.
Yeah. As I've said before I wish some of the Forex brokers I trust would get involved in Bitcoin. Maybe it is the fact they would have to provide 24/7 trading, plus support & all that goes with it.??
AVA trader does it good but only 24/5. Makes it hard to count waves & monitor & manage positions held over the weekend.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,464
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:44am Apr 29, 2014 9:44am
this is my ideal unfolding of wave 1...
Attached Image
  • #3,465
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:09am Apr 29, 2014 10:09am
Quoting KiwiOz
Wow venzen. get a load of this. I emailed Bit4x which is controlled by VenetFX. Copy of email & reply. Hi, >I note you do not provide bitcoin on your Demo platform.............Why not.?? What exactly are we not providing? Perhaps you need to read the instructions once more. >Are you intending to provide for wallet to wallet deposits & withdrawals in the near future.? What? >Your current method is very cumbersome. You can have it secure or fast, you pick. If you like fast, go on mtgox. Oh wait... >How long does it take for a deposit to appear on...
Wow, do you mind if I repost this in Bitcointalk forum (with any sensitive info removed ofc)? Even though BTC businesses are filled with 'young attitudes', this kind of reply will loose them a lot of customers I can tell you
  • #3,466
  • Edited 12:29pm Apr 29, 2014 11:01am | Edited 12:29pm
Venzen, I think I finally saw what you and KO did a long time ago.
How did i miss that possibility...

Remember yesterday when I told you, that your wave B would look better one click on the left, now I see why you put it where you did.
This might work as a massive C wave diagonal, i can find a reason why sometime I had 5 waves structure and some other time only 3 wave structure (trendwise).
-wave 1 is the longest
-wave 4 is in her territory.
-wave 2 and wave 4 corrected .66 of 1 and 3.

Some other random observation ;
-A lot of 3-3-5 at different degree matches the fractal feel
By distance and time relation :
-most wave a=wave c
-most black wave b = .61 of waves a
-most blue wave b = .38 of waves b

According to that I can finally see why KO mentioned a bottom at 280 in 2 weeks...

http://i.imgur.com/Kua4ubO.png

Now i'll try to look in h1 at current PA and see if it make more sens...
  • #3,467
  • Apr 29, 2014 11:40am Apr 29, 2014 11:40am
large degree wave = unlikely as diagonal
  • #3,468
  • Apr 29, 2014 1:02pm Apr 29, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting emptymind
large degree wave = unlikely as diagonal
That's a count which we have no evidence to exclude now. Just be prepared and don't put yourself in a hard circumstances if it does happen.

Unless we immediately see wave 3 style bull up, which is my first count now, that's the first alternative count we should take.
  • #3,469
  • Edited 2:15pm Apr 29, 2014 1:40pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting kingtour
{quote} That's a count which we have no evidence to exclude now. Just be prepared and don't put yourself in a hard circumstances if it does happen. Unless we immediately see wave 3 style bull up, which is my first count now, that's the first alternative count we should take.
you are right; keeping an open mind. btw, im not leveraged.... if it goes to zero and then rocket to 10k im fine with that................ just trolling for some reaction from da bears

for the record, i just want to screen cap this statement from my internet guide on ewp:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 123.png Size: 2 KB


another screen cap from ewpredictions.................: (it's very RARE for C waves....... but common for wave 5)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4444.png Size: 3 KB


good luck! unlikely for large degree & rare for a C wave as a whole

also the crazy WXYXZ correction is finally over 5 month correction is an eternity in bitcoin time... maybe that equals 10 years of correction in commodities
  • #3,470
  • Apr 29, 2014 2:01pm Apr 29, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yeah. As I've said before I wish some of the Forex brokers I trust would get involved in Bitcoin. Maybe it is the fact they would have to provide 24/7 trading, plus support & all that goes with it.?? AVA trader does it good but only 24/5. Makes it hard to count waves & monitor & manage positions held over the weekend.
By the way, I was wondering, If they are offering 1000:1 leverage, and the minimum is 1btc, doesn't it mean they need at least 1000btc in reserve per capita ?
If so that how can that model work ? Unless for microtrade of 1mbtc...
  • #3,471
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 29, 2014 4:24pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting lady_luck
Venzen, I think I finally saw what you and KO did a long time ago. How did i miss that possibility... Remember yesterday when I told you, that your wave B would look better one click on the left, now I see why you put it where you did. This might work as a massive C wave diagonal, i can find a reason why sometime I had 5 waves structure and some other time only 3 wave structure (trendwise). -wave 1 is the longest -wave 4 is in her territory. -wave 2 and wave 4 corrected .66 of 1 and 3. Some other random observation ; -A lot of 3-3-5 at different...
hi all, hi lady_luck,

yes, this is the thing. A large ending diagonal for wave C - and those fib relationships you found - well, they don't prove it - but they confirm it. And of course, just the appearance of the wave allows the mind to complete the pattern to that lower TL to 280.

In the last few days I got thinking about the effect of regulation - something we've discussed regularly in the past. Bitcoin fans are psychologically in the grip of government and central banks. And this shows in the price. All of the Wall Street and Sillicon Valley investment is 100% dependent on positive a US regulatory environment. That's why their investment has not translated into price advance - they're sitting on all those millions and billions of USD waiting to see what PBoC says and waiting for the US SEC and so on... psychologically dependent on government and central banks for approval of Satoshi's Bitcoin.

Well, it's never going to happen the way most Bitcoiners or even the Bitcoin developers expect. What we can reasonably expect is that the more Bitcoin is adopted the less governments and central banks are going to like it because it doesn't help them one bit - it robs them of taxes and control. As they learn this in practice, they will try to clamp down more.

So, looking at Satoshi's original motivation and stated reasons for creating Bitcoin, it's here to put users back in control of currency, to make each of us our own bank, to destroy the fractal reserve system and to enforce a schizm between government and currency control (disrupt the tax base). So Bitcoin is not designed with a dependency on government or banks for it to work. And this is where the Bitcoin fans are naive and the developers show their true colors: they want to make a pretty protocol, an unoffensive Bitcoin and an easy, convenient payment protocol with buying coffee at Starbucks as a use case! So, they look to (mostly) the US authorities for approval and guidelines. In an effort to not offend anyone, they exclude and silence guys like Roger Ver, who would have pushed the radical aspects of Bitcoin much further by now. And just as well, since projecting logically into the future, a total Bitcoin ban is inevitable, unless government stops loving control and taxes and every senator turns into John Lennon in the coming years

So, yes, desperately wanting authoritarian approval - and not getting it - that's what i see on the chart. And then every 7 months a nervous and hasty rally to the upside - only to be smacked down by a poorly managed exchange or a government decree somewhere... that's the story of the Bitcoin price chart so far ...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,472
  • Apr 29, 2014 4:28pm Apr 29, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Wow venzen. get a load of this. I emailed Bit4x which is controlled by VenetFX. Copy of email & reply. Hi, >I note you do not provide bitcoin on your Demo platform.............Why not.?? What exactly are we not providing? Perhaps you need to read the instructions once more. >Are you intending to provide for wallet to wallet deposits & withdrawals in the near future.? What? >Your current method is very cumbersome. You can have it secure or fast, you pick. If you like fast, go on mtgox. Oh wait... >How long does it take for a deposit to appear on...
Well, I'm glad you have the mindset to see the humor, but this is highly unprofessional of them. I am annoyed because I encouraged you to deal with them and then they end up giving you this kind of treatment - which would have fallen on me if i had not pushed you to the task, so i'll be having some words with them and possibly an investigative article - let's see how they like that!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,473
  • Apr 29, 2014 4:30pm Apr 29, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} Wow, do you mind if I repost this in Bitcointalk forum (with any sensitive info removed ofc)? Even though BTC businesses are filled with 'young attitudes', this kind of reply will loose them a lot of customers I can tell you
gjgjg, hi

of course, you can cross post but please link back here so people can see the context and so interested traders may join us here.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,474
  • Apr 29, 2014 4:41pm Apr 29, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} you are right; keeping an open mind. btw, im not leveraged.... if it goes to zero and then rocket to 10k im fine with that................ just trolling for some reaction from da bears for the record, i just want to screen cap this statement from my internet guide on ewp: {image} another screen cap from ewpredictions.................: (it's very RARE for C waves....... but common for wave 5) {image} good luck! unlikely for large degree & rare for a C wave as a whole also the crazy WXYXZ correction is finally over 5 month correction...
hi emptymind,

remember before i pointed you to the EWP textbook where they show at least 5 examples of diagonals lasting 3 - 4 months.

i know you respect these web sources you quote and you obviously learn a lot from them, but they are wrong about diagonals. In the end who are "they" and what is Elliott Wave? They are no better than any of use here - they have the same EWP textbook and the single authority of Ralph Elliott to work from as us. That's why EW counters eventually realize that its all subjective, because it is an interpreted analytical method. What you see as waves 1-2-3-4, I might see as A-B-C-i
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,475
  • Apr 29, 2014 4:46pm Apr 29, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting kingtour
{quote} That's a count which we have no evidence to exclude now. Just be prepared and don't put yourself in a hard circumstances if it does happen. Unless we immediately see wave 3 style bull up, which is my first count now, that's the first alternative count we should take.
Exactly, it's what Federer calls "playing your percentages" - what do we have more evidence for and what are the chances of a directional bet here yielding profit?

Unless price goes above that trendline capping the decline since Jan, we don't have any reason to believe the decline is over and any impulsive count to the upside would be an alt count until we see evidence that confirms i) decline is over, ii) reversal has occured
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,476
  • Apr 29, 2014 4:47pm Apr 29, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Bahaha ! Love your wit KO ! Usually when it's good to be true... I mean, despite their audit I'm still unsure of Bitfinex future, I'm very doubtful of the BTC community. Too many 19yo who knows two lines of coding and "wanna be rich" guys. Plus... I know it's internet, but when it comes to running a business you at least want a real name, and Matic and Kocevar are two German and Slovenian tennis player... Usually the creator of a company doesn't even get near answering clients emails.
Matic and Kocevar...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,477
  • Apr 29, 2014 5:08pm Apr 29, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} that's what i see on the chart. And then every 7 months a nervous and hasty rally to the upside - only to be smacked down by a poorly managed exchange or a government decree somewhere... that's the story of the Bitcoin price chart so far ...
Great post !
I was gonna say something among those line but not that well.
I keep on reading everywhere that BTC is on a constant uptrend, but honestly , this constant uptrend is only spike. Spending most of a year on corrective phase.
I mean the last six month, I haven't done any real work. I established that the best strategy with BTC swings, was to gradually sell when needed and trade the rest of the time to maintain.
In fact in January, my rent cost me 0.4 btc, last month it cost me 1.2btc.
Which is ok, but require me to trade well enough to maintain. And most important to anticipate the move long enough in advance. Which is impossible.
Surely, over a year period, my money will be worth the equivalent of 10% month per month. But statistically, since BTC creation, this is only due to one or two per year. So the rest of the time BTC (as my Argentinean Pesos) will be loosing more that 10% of it's value.
Which mean that my original assessment is wrong. Selling continuously over the course of a year doesn't work.
As far as easy strategy goes, selling at the spike and waiting six month to buy again would be more rewarding.

My point is, I'm living of trading, so I'm still doing ok. But I don't see how an average person who doesn't spent 4hours per day looking at charts could manage to own BTC instead of a bank account.
Someone with a job, constantly putting money into BTC as a long term investment would also do ok.
But anyone who need to access that money frequently won't.

That's why I don't see how BTC can challenge, saving account, credit card or cash under the mattress. Here live the banker's fees.
Would anyone want a salary paid straight to a BTC wallet ? I wouldn't.
As long our income source stay clear, government will be hard to rob from their taxes.

Until the day, when we can stop to associate a risk factor to owning and spending progressively BTC over the course of a year and when we'll hear about "BTC-in-hand" jobs.
  • #3,478
  • Apr 29, 2014 5:16pm Apr 29, 2014 5:16pm
The desperation with with which most analysts are looking for the start of a rally, combined with the ease whereby bad news shatters the wafer-thin confidence of the bulls... i believe it's reasonable to expect price to fall violently and relentlessly after the next limp attempt at 450.

Yes, price action turned on .618 retracement of the wave up, but this is not how a third wave launches ordinarily... the accompanying psychology is weak and my articles arguing for decline are getting many angry responses... evidence, for me, that participants are in denial, yet, negative all the same.

BTC-e H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H1_30Apr2014.png Size: 260 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,479
  • Apr 29, 2014 5:20pm Apr 29, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Great post ! blah blah blah me, rant.
I guess i'd just wanted to agree, I didn't realized it was that long lol.

About what you said before about EW to kingtour and emptymind, yeah It's funny how subjective EW are.
I've realized not long ago, being right isn't as important as figuring the best key points to gradually switch from one count to another.
And also, It's interesting how other trading method can translate to EW. How for example an extended wave 3, to a flat wave B can be an head and shoulder for someone else.
  • #3,480
  • Apr 29, 2014 5:33pm Apr 29, 2014 5:33pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Great post ! I was gonna say something among those line but not that well. I keep on reading everywhere that BTC is on a constant uptrend, but honestly , this constant uptrend is only spike. Spending most of a year on corrective phase. I mean the last six month, I haven't done any real work. I established that the best strategy with BTC swings, was to gradually sell when needed and trade the rest of the time to maintain. In fact in January, my rent cost me 0.4 btc, last month it cost me 1.2btc. Which is ok, but require me to trade well enough...
Thanks for sharing, because it's your reality - and mine too - so great to hear we're experiencing the same.

If i didn't take the job writing for BTC I wouldn't be surviving right now - or i'd have to work on a boat or a rubber plantation somewhere. The only thing that makes the BTC wages work for me is that my wages are calculated in constant dollars and then converted and paid out in BTC at the last moment. And while in decline, I convert them straight back to dollars as soon as possible so I can pay the rent and have stable fiat to buy BTC at the market bottom.

If Mt.Gox didn't disintegrate like that I'd be in the same situation anyway, because my analysis of a continuing rally in Jan was wrong and I'd have hedged all the way down but a hedge in profit is not money you can draw and live on.

So, i'm liking your idea of cashing out (convert to fiat) at the top - short the decline but have a 100% cash position for 4 months. That's what i'll be doing come end July (edit: depending on chart analysis at the time).

One risk for us though: if BTC continues rallying into Aug, Sept, etc we'd be losing out big time - so we have to anticipate the top well or devise a money management exit strategy to sell in phases to mitigate the risk.

The other risk is that - we get the top right - but the decline after July does not go as low, so we sit with cash as a new rally begins and would "lose" money by not being able to buy in at the lows we anticipated.
cryptocurrency everytime
0 traders viewing now