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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,381
  • Apr 27, 2014 11:54am Apr 27, 2014 11:54am
This price action is really confusing... I was so sure we'd see a triangle in this position, I closed a large short position from 446 so I can reopen it at 455 - and down after 3-3-3 for this wave

Maybe price will go back up to tag 455 or 470, but that 3 days of sideways was getting tired... i'm not sure what to expect from the Sunday trade though...

lady_luck, I've lost count here, but your count seems the most likely to be the one.

emptymind, you've got a good alternate count running for potential upside reversal, yet I am keeping my sights on buying in even lower...


edit: after getting to grips with how Bitfinex works, its proving a bit easier to get funds in and out and to trade long and short with leverage (what they call swap). I'm thinking that now is a good time to start keeping an eye on the long swap rates to reserve a favorable rate for when the time comes to go long. Right now the swap borrowers are all looking to offer swap at high rates going short, but one can reserve swap contracts and just hold them unused until you're ready.
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  • #3,382
  • Edited 12:22pm Apr 27, 2014 12:06pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting venzen
This price action is really confusing... I was so sure we'd see a triangle in this position, I closed a large short position from 446 so I can reopen it at 455 - and down after 3-3-3 for this wave Maybe price will go back up to tag 455 or 470, but that 3 days of sideways was getting tired... i'm not sure what to expect from the Sunday trade though... lady_luck, I've lost count here, but your count seems the most likely to be the one. emptymind, you've got a good alternate count running for potential upside reversal, yet I am keeping my sights...

Good morning Venzen,

Yes i saw the exact same triangle. I was sure of 457 up to a few hour ago. Look like it turned into an ABC and what I assume would be a wave d and wave e back up to 457 were in fact wave i and wave ii of 5.

To me 418 on btce is pretty much assure. Then may be even 390. So glad to be awake for once !

edit : do you often reserved the swap ? With bitfinex i've figured I sometime get almost the same deal by just using margin and limit.
edit 2 : i'm actually starting to really consider 390
  • #3,383
  • Apr 27, 2014 12:31pm Apr 27, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good morning Venzen, Yes i saw the exact same triangle. I was sure of 457 up to a few hour ago. Look like it turned into an ABC and what I assume would be a wave d and wave e back up to 457 were in fact wave i and wave ii of 5. To me 418 on btce is pretty much assure. Then may be even 390. So glad to be awake for once ! edit : do you often reserved the swap ? With bitfinex i've figured I sometime get almost the same deal by just using margin and limit. edit 2 : i'm actually starting to really consider 390
hi lady_luck,

yes, same triangle i saw - i completely assumed it would happen - BTC fools me twice every 2nd time around

I was asking Bitfinex support a lot of questions for about 3 days, and they answered clearly and patiently each time. In the end my conclusion they convinced me that it is better (easier) to just let the system allocate swap contracts. But one of the support staff confirmed my idea of "booking" swap in advance:

Quoting Bitfinex Support
The advantage of reserving margin beforehand is if you see low rates offer available and want to "reserve" these low rate for you while not immediately opening a margin position. However this requires you to know a bit the market, the average rates,... In the beginning my advice is to margin trade without bothering with the swaps offers, let the system manage it for you as it does it quite well (it always takes the lowest rates available). When you are more confortable with this, you can start playing with the swaps to lower your margin costs even more.
Thing is, i tried to reserve some swap just now and the system said I don't have enough "tradeable balance", because I'm using it all as margin to go short! And I dont want to close profitable short positions to free margin just so i can reserve swap to go long in a few days or weeks time => that's like not eating a delicious meal because you want to keep "space" for the desert
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,384
  • Edited 1:03pm Apr 27, 2014 12:37pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, yes, same triangle i saw - i completely assumed it would happen - BTC fools me twice every 2nd time around I was asking Bitfinex support a lot of questions for about 3 days, and they answered clearly and patiently each time. In the end my conclusion was that it is better (easier) to just let the system allocate swap contracts. But one of the support staff confirmed my idea of "booking" swap in advance: {quote} Thing is, i tried to reserve some swap just now and the system said I don't have enough "tradeable balance", because...
Thanks, that's what I thought. I guess it can be a great idea while PA is going sideway tho.
Also an other question about bitfinex, let's say you have an active short position how do you do to close it automaticly and open a long from that amount at a define price ?
Their language is just a bit weird to me...

edit : on my previous charts, wave 3 of c was 1.6 x wave 1 of C, and wave 4 of C was weak (.382 of wave 3) without any buying pressure (no triangle), so wave 5 could now extend, that's why I'm now consider 390 or fib 0.786 of the wave I.
  • #3,385
  • Apr 27, 2014 12:56pm Apr 27, 2014 12:56pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Thanks, that's what I thought. I guess it can be a great idea while PA is going sideway tho. Also an other question about bitfinex, let's say you have an active short position how do you do to close it automaticly and open a long from that amount at a define price ? Their language is just a bit weird to me...
I was going to say that too: why don't they just use common trading language?

I asked them about reversing positions too (well, hedging actually - which their system doesn't allow):

Quoting Bitfinex Support
It is not possible to hold 2 open positions on the same pair at the same time.

If you are long 1 BTC and you trade for 0.5 BTC short, your position will be reduced to long 0.5 BTC (with base price adjusted to account for realized profit of the trade)
This is how I've got the targets looking going down. Not sure if that steep drop was a C wave or a 1st wave, but BTC doesn't seem to mind it just goes for any 1.618 extension of an initial wave down...

BTC-e H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H1_28Apr2014.png Size: 219 KB
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  • #3,386
  • Apr 27, 2014 1:09pm Apr 27, 2014 1:09pm
I know, I like bitfinex, but they are so unclear, even their interface !

Good chart

The only thing i'm not sure is your wave B.
This pattern is very similar to the january wave B to 900, back then it was wave 1 and 2 of the next leg down.
Also that's where my "perfect pretty triangle" from last week was, which make me assume that the top of B was the second of the two peaks just on the left of your B. (the one just above the 21 of the timeframe).
Do you think that would change your count much in term of degree and targets ?
  • #3,387
  • Apr 27, 2014 1:35pm Apr 27, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting lady_luck
I know, I like bitfinex, but they are so unclear, even their interface ! Good chart The only thing i'm not sure is your wave B. This pattern is very similar to the january wave B to 900, back then it was wave 1 and 2 of the next leg down. Also that's where my "perfect pretty triangle" from last week was, which make me assume that the top of B was the second of the two peaks just on the left of your B. (the one just above the 21 of the timeframe). Do you think that would change your count much in term of degree and targets ?
Going by your labeling, yes, it does give me a clearer count. Something like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H1_28Apr2014_b.png Size: 217 KB


But, then again, what I have as 1-2 could also be the a-b of wave 1... we can't be sure at this time. Overall, I'm expecting a diagonal here - i don't know why - even though it's hard to find a move in the price history where BTC ends a decline with an ending diagonal...
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  • #3,388
  • Apr 27, 2014 1:39pm Apr 27, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Going by your labeling, yes, it does give me a clearer count. Something like this: {image} But, then again, what I have as 1-2 could also be the a-b of wave 1... we can't be sure at this time. Overall, I'm expecting a diagonal here - i don't know why - even though it's hard to find a move in the price history where BTC ends a decline with an ending diagonal...
An ED is a clever idea, it would fit a sharp move down. And a strong bullish sign, it would mean, next move -up- would have the potential to fully retrace this diagonal. And may be give us a good idea of the larger picture.
  • #3,389
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:09pm Apr 27, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} An ED is a clever idea, it would fit a sharp move down. And a strong bullish sign, it would mean, next move -up- would have the potential to fully retrace this diagonal. And may be give us a good idea of the larger picture.
good idea! If we get an ED here we can calculate with some accuracy where the first wave up would target - take profit there and go short for what should be a deep (or drawn out) wave 2 - as the market recovers from the shock and the bearish mood continues to predominate...

my certainty of seeing 250-280 is so great that i'm getting alarm bells ringing - just like when I was certain since yesterday that a textbook triangle was unfolding. So, for me, lots of caution here but there is just a sense that the downtrend is not complete yet.

Looking at the wave down to the previous low (near 340), it seems that if price breaks down through that upper yellow TL (currently at 425) on my chart, then it would have entered the expanding wedge that will define the ED. However, indicators are so fully diverged that price may run back up to 455 if it fails to break below 420.... but i favor another drop to 400 in the next few hours.
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  • #3,390
  • Edited 2:35pm Apr 27, 2014 2:13pm | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I was going to say that too: why don't they just use common trading language? I asked them about reversing positions too (well, hedging actually - which their system doesn't allow):}
So basicly if I have an active short position for 10btc, it would be automatically claimed when it goes thru my active limit buy of 10btc ?

Quoting venzen
{quote} However, indicators are so fully diverged that price may run back up to 455 if it fails to break below 420.... but i favor another drop to 400 in the next few hours.
Unlike the indicator, i don't diverge from your opinion. Look like our analysis are back on sync lol I really don't like the idea of 250-280 thp. But that will depend of what come next after 386 or 420.

EDIT : in my count 428 was wave iii of 3 of 5 of C. Triangle and nice volume spike to confirm this third on H4 and M30
  • #3,391
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:19pm Apr 27, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting lady_luck
I know, I like bitfinex,..
Having watched the strange Bitfinex "Margin Trading" dashboard for a week or so now, I notice Bitfinex is sluggish to move down - but when it does eventually move it covers the distance very quickly and tends to hold the price level it achieved for a while... and always just a few Dollars higher than Bitstamp's price!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,392
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:24pm Apr 27, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} So basicly if I have an active short position for 10btc, it would be automatically claimed when it goes thru my active limit buy of 10btc ? {quote} Unlike the indicator, i don't diverge from your opinion. Look like our analysis are back on sync lol I really don't like the idea of 250-280 thp. But that will depend of what come next after 386 or 420.
heheh! Using Bitstamp's language, I think it would automatically be "closed" when it hits the 10btc buy order...

i haven't yet clicked "claim"... i believe when you claim a short position it is both closed AND converted to BTC at the market price... do i understand it right?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,393
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:28pm Apr 27, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} heheh! Using Bitstamp's language, I think it would automatically be "closed" when it hits the 10btc buy order... i haven't yet clicked "claim"... i believe when you claim a short position it is both closed AND converted to BTC at the market price... do i understand it right?
Yeah, i only like their charts and PA lol.
The rest, I don't know... I read the faq about this claim things :

"
The claim feature allows you to use the funds you have in your trading wallet and/or the profit you already realized on a long position to buy the underlying assets of the position and credit them into your trading wallet.
So when this happen you can claim the position. Which means the following:

  1. You will be credited the sale size in USD, or charged the base price times the size of the position (sale size of the position) (with a fee based on the amount credited).
  2. You will be charged the pending swap returns.
  3. The position amount in BTC or LTC will be charged on your balance directly

There is no trading involved at any time.


If you don't have enough realized profit to claim the position, when you'll click on "Claim", the system will tell you "You need to sell approximately XX Bitcoins at the current price to claim the position", but it's up to you to sell those Bitcoins with the type of orders you want."

And now it makes even less sens...
Your interpretation makes a lot of sens tho.

  • #3,394
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:45pm Apr 27, 2014 2:45pm
deep wave 2 retrace

Attached Image
  • #3,395
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:47pm Apr 27, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yeah, i only like their charts and PA lol. The rest, I don't know... I read the faq about this claim things : " The claim feature allows you to use the funds you have in your trading wallet and/or the profit you already realized on a long position to buy the underlying assets of the position and credit them into your trading wallet. So when this happen you can claim the position. Which means the following: You will be credited the sale size in USD, or charged the base price times the size of the position (sale size of the position) (with...
"There is no trading involved at any time." ... wha..? up to this point they were talking about "your position"... so we're trading right?

and

"If you don't have enough realized profit to claim the position," ... so maybe they need to clarify what "enough realized profit" is...

This is about as clear as options trading - i remember phoning a broker once and saying: "i've got a call option and price is above the option's purchase price but it's showing i'm running a loss." And the support desk said, "Oh, that's because you weren't 'in-the-money' when you bought and it's also got a time delta algorithm running on it, so it's probably going to be double the loss at expiry..." ... wha?

This is a great evening for trading and chatting, but as fate would have it the electricity's just blacked-out as far as i can see around the bay... I'll have to power down and watch price on my phone to save battery and catch that low....

Good Luck and hopefully see you sooner than later.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,396
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:48pm Apr 27, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting emptymind
deep wave 2 retrace {image}
very
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  • #3,397
  • Edited 4:04pm Apr 27, 2014 3:02pm | Edited 4:04pm
I'm pretty sure wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
Quoting emptymind
deep wave 2 retrace {image}
And deep wave B retrace. Both very unlikely separate, impossible together. If wave B overshoot wave C is supposed to be short.

(As usual the green ray are some previous resistance, potential support now).
http://i.imgur.com/oeqGoSf.png
I know, their faq are hilarious !
I like that line : "the profit you already realized on a long position to buy the underlying assets", I thought that was already the meaning of being long ?
'm just gonna click on it next time go long and see what happen,
Good Luck Venzen, hope you get your power back on soon
  • #3,398
  • Apr 27, 2014 3:09pm Apr 27, 2014 3:09pm
doesn't break any rules as long as wave 2 ends above the origin of wave 1

Attached Image
  • #3,399
  • Apr 27, 2014 4:27pm Apr 27, 2014 4:27pm
wave 2 can be any corrective pattern except a triangle; is that why there are no triangles? ... and another clue is the expanding leading diagonal on wave 1 ...see the 5min huobi...... and another clue is W = Y..... see my WXY count on prev page
  • #3,400
  • Edited 5:25pm Apr 27, 2014 4:49pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting emptymind
wave 2 can be any corrective pattern except a triangle; is that why there are no triangles? ... and another clue is the expanding leading diagonal on wave 1 ...see the 5min huobi...... and another clue is W = Y..... see my WXY count on prev page
I'm glad you are starting to look at other exchange, I remember I mentioned that to you in the past. But focusing now only on huobi is the same as when you were only looking at bitstamp or btc-e. It's not utterly wrong, but by ignoring thousands of BTC transaction worth of market data you can be missing some keys.

Expanding LD, overshooting wave B, and extended wave C, happening all together in one pattern is a one in million chance.
The absence of triangle doesn't prove the presence of a wave 2. Just prove the absence of triangle in that wave 4,

When LTCUSD, bitstamp, btce, btcchina are all going against one single chart, it's hard to find a reason to hold on to it.
Now, as you said, huobi has already reach the .61 fib. Which to me hint toward a more superficial wave 5. But still it has to be the same wave in progress.

It's a good EW practicing challenge to try to force one count into one chart, specifically if you are not playing the move.
It's interesting to analyze afterward to see at what point it was more likely to switch to something that fit better. And then trying to find out what are those criteria that make a better fit and at what point.
And their it touches the question at the heart of EW ; when multiple counts are not wrong, how do we choose one ?

Huobi will head in the same direction as everywhere else, just slower.
I have 2539 as target for this wave down on huobi.
Good luck to y'all
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