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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,341
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:06am Apr 25, 2014 10:06am
LL, interesting chart... i don't follow ltc but i guess it's similar to bitcoin......... i have wave C subdividing into 3 waves....... so i have wave A where you have wave "i" ..... seems to my eyes correction is over for wave 2
  • #3,342
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:06am Apr 25, 2014 10:06am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, 410 sounds good. Then we'll see where to next.... up would be ok!
Thanks I edited my previous post with a chart, i do think up after that.

Quoting emptymind
LL, interesting chart... i don't follow ltc but i guess it's similar to bitcoin......... i have wave C subdividing into 3 waves....... so i have wave A where you have wave "i" ..... seems to my eyes correction is over for wave 2
Thanks LTCUSD is very similar, your count make sens, but "ii" was sharp, wave iv should have been sideway and choppy, I haven't seen that yet,so I assume It's yet to come.
But your count is valid too, and I haven't took a position yet, waiting of a confirmation of either, may be even a triangle somewhere
  • #3,343
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:07am Apr 25, 2014 10:07am
Quoting venzen
{quote} w-x-y-x-z ...
we can't change the cards we are dealt, just how we play them
  • #3,344
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:15am Apr 25, 2014 10:15am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} T LTCUSD is very similar, your count make sens, but "ii" was sharp, wave iv should have been sideway and choppy, I haven't seen that yet,so I assume It's yet to come. But your count is valid too, and I haven't took a position yet, waiting of a confirmation of either, may be even a triangle somewhere
did you see my 5 minute chart of the c wave? everything is there... i don't understand what else can happen ?
  • #3,345
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:25am Apr 25, 2014 10:25am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} did you see my 5 minute chart of the c wave? everything is there... i don't understand what else can happen ?
Yes. it does work very well. It's just, on all TF above H4, it doesn't show. While i and ii are still visible, iv and v disappear and look like a iii.
I don't know if that make sens. But this is why I think something is still missing.
I like your count, but it could also be the subwave structure of wave 3 of C.
I know look isn't a solid argument, so wait and see for me now
  • #3,346
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:30am Apr 25, 2014 10:30am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes. it does work very well. It's just, on all TF above H4, it doesn't show. While i and ii are still visible, iv and v disappear and look like a iii. I don't know if that make sens. But this is why I think something is still missing. I like your count, but it could also be the subwave structure of wave 3 of C. I know look isn't a solid argument, so wait and see for me now
ok... sometimes i mix up all the degrees ...... if you look at huobi the wave 2 correction was a classic 61.8% of wave 1........ bitstamp i think is 50% but thats ok. all achieved classic wave 2 retracement fibs....
  • #3,347
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:48am Apr 25, 2014 10:48am
Guys can anyone offer a mt4 feed for bitcoin? Cheers
  • #3,348
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:55am Apr 25, 2014 10:55am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Guys can anyone offer a mt4 feed for bitcoin? Cheers
try btc-e.com
  • #3,349
  • Apr 25, 2014 11:11am Apr 25, 2014 11:11am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} try btc-e.com
can't see any mt4 feed on that one...?
  • #3,350
  • Apr 25, 2014 2:55pm Apr 25, 2014 2:55pm
Since 438, i just see a 3 wave structure and overlap now, to me it confirms the low I mentioned earlier

http://i.imgur.com/YvQ8XWH.png
  • #3,351
  • Apr 25, 2014 3:29pm Apr 25, 2014 3:29pm
thats one way of looking at it i guess............. here is what i came up with huobi

does it make sens?
Attached Image
  • #3,352
  • Apr 25, 2014 3:45pm Apr 25, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting emptymind
thats one way of looking at it i guess............. here is what i came up with huobi does it make sens? {image}
Yep,
I thought you would say that
I guess what comes next would tell us..
  • #3,353
  • Apr 25, 2014 3:50pm Apr 25, 2014 3:50pm
so true! sometimes i just can't understand the wave on bitstamp so i look at huobi. some how it is easier to read
  • #3,354
  • Apr 25, 2014 6:10pm Apr 25, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} can't see any mt4 feed on that one...?
Go to Btc-e then click on "NEWS"..scroll down you will see МetaTrader 4 Edit. click on this link, it will take you straight there.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,355
  • Apr 25, 2014 6:57pm Apr 25, 2014 6:57pm
The pattern keeps repeating but with lesser degrees & the time frame gets smaller each time. Going by this, the bottom should be in within 2 to 3 weeks...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: download (1).png Size: 67 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #3,356
  • Edited 9:38pm Apr 25, 2014 8:35pm | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting KiwiOz
The pattern keeps repeating but with lesser degrees & the time frame gets smaller each time. Going by this, the bottom should be in within 2 to 3 weeks... {image}
Yes it's interesting, more than having common shaped ABC, it could also hint toward those wave as 3 and 4. Even may be the largest one

By the way, look like BTC-e is doing one this classic overkill spike again, what are you short term target at the moment ?
edit : it also did touch the .382. wave 4 of C could be over already.. doubt it tho
Good night everyone
  • #3,357
  • Apr 26, 2014 3:52am Apr 26, 2014 3:52am
the only difference between the 3 patterns is the last one i circled in red is an impulse wave with 5 waves (not 3)... i think that is what most people do not see... elliott wave allows 3 corrections max seperated by x waves........ so that pattern is done and market is moving to new up trend
Attached Image
  • #3,358
  • Apr 26, 2014 9:40am Apr 26, 2014 9:40am
Quoting emptymind
the only difference between the 3 patterns is the last one i circled in red is an impulse wave with 5 waves (not 3)... i think that is what most people do not see... elliott wave allows 3 corrections max seperated by x waves........ so that pattern is done and market is moving to new up trend {image}
Frankly speaking, I think most people view the red circle as 3 waves.

This does not invalidate the up count, as A-B bottom allows the first wave up to be in 3 waves.

So I am prepared for either a bottom now, or later at 1800CNY or 200+USD level. Except both possibilities and respect the market.
  • #3,359
  • Edited 3:11pm Apr 26, 2014 2:17pm | Edited 3:11pm
the problem is elliott wave rules doesn't allow a 4th correction. so i don't know how that red circle can be a 3 wave.... if it was then the market isn't following elliott wave rules

just counted the duration of wave W is 18 days. wave Y is 50 days. wave Z is 39 days.

wave W is 38.2% of wave Y
wave Z is 78.6% of wave Y

i find that interesting. does it make sens? who knows
  • #3,360
  • Apr 26, 2014 4:06pm Apr 26, 2014 4:06pm
Quoting emptymind
the problem is elliott wave rules doesn't allow a 4th correction. so i don't know how that red circle can be a 3 wave.... if it was then the market isn't following elliott wave rules just counted the duration of wave W is 18 days. wave Y is 50 days. wave Z is 39 days. wave W is 38.2% of wave Y wave Z is 78.6% of wave Y i find that interesting. does it make sens? who knows
Hello,
That's a very good observation, finding those ratio prove that those wave are of the same degree.
As of what you say in the first part, it's true. Unless these 3 correction are part of a larger degree correction. Which would be the only way a 200 target would make sens (100% of the november being impossible by itself). But then again it wouldn't stop at 200. Well from a EW perspective at least.
All together I agree with you on both point.
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